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Peter Sheridan Dodds

Peter Sheridan Dodds appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

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physics.soc-phSocial and Information NetworksComputation and Languagecs.CYphysics.geo-phcond-mat.dis-nncond-mat.stat-mechApplicationsMachine Learningnlin.CDecon.GNHuman-Computer InteractionInformation Theorymath.DSmath.ITphysics.ao-phphysics.pop-phq-fin.ECq-fin.GNQuantitative Methods

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Published work

46 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

A Formative Study of Brief Affective Text as a Complement to Wearable Sensing for Longitudinal Student Health Monitoring

Wearable devices capture physiological and behavioral data with increasing fidelity, but the psychological context shaping these outcomes is difficult to recover from sensor data alone, limiting passive sensing utility for digital health. We examined whether ultra-brief naturalistic concern text could serve as a scalable complement to passive sensing. In a year-long study of 458 university students (3,610 person-waves) tracked with Oura rings, participants responded bimonthly to an open-ended prompt about what concerned them most; responses had a median length of three words. We compared dictionary-based, general pretrained, and domain-adapted NLP approaches using within-person mixed-effects models across nine sleep and physical activity outcomes. Weeks dominated by academic concern framing were associated with lower physical activity; weeks characterized by emotional exhaustion language were associated with poorer sleep quality and lower heart rate variability. General pretrained embeddings outperformed domain-adapted models for most outcomes, with domain adaptation showing relative advantage for autonomic outcomes. Zero-shot classification of concern topics produced no significant associations, while affective dimensions across all three methods were consistently associated with outcomes, indicating emotional register rather than topical content carries the signal. These findings offer design guidance: ultra-brief affective prompts enrich the psychological interpretability of passive physiological data at minimal burden.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2025arXiv

Statistical laws and linguistics inform meaning in naturalistic and fictional conversation

Conversation is a cornerstone of social connection and is linked to well-being outcomes. Conversations vary widely in type with some portion generating complex, dynamic stories. One approach to studying how conversations unfold in time is through statistical patterns such as Heaps' law, which holds that vocabulary size scales with document length. Little work on Heaps' law has looked at conversation and considered how language features impact scaling. We measure Heaps' law for conversations recorded in two distinct mediums: 1. Strangers brought together on video chat and 2. Fictional characters in movies. We find that scaling of vocabulary size differs by parts of speech. We discuss these findings through behavioral and linguistic frameworks.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Spatial changes in park visitation at the onset of the pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the mobility patterns of a majority of Americans beginning in March 2020. Despite the beneficial, socially distanced activity offered by outdoor recreation, confusing and contradictory public health messaging complicated access to natural spaces. Working with a dataset comprising the locations of roughly 50 million distinct mobile devices in 2019 and 2020, we analyze weekly visitation patterns for 8,135 parks across the United States. Using Bayesian inference, we identify regions that experienced a substantial change in visitation in the first few weeks of the pandemic. We find that regions that did not exhibit a change were likely to have smaller populations, and to have voted more republican than democrat in the 2020 elections. Our study contributes to a growing body of literature using passive observations to explore who benefits from access to nature.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Augmenting semantic lexicons using word embeddings and transfer learning

Sentiment-aware intelligent systems are essential to a wide array of applications. These systems are driven by language models which broadly fall into two paradigms: Lexicon-based and contextual. Although recent contextual models are increasingly dominant, we still see demand for lexicon-based models because of their interpretability and ease of use. For example, lexicon-based models allow researchers to readily determine which words and phrases contribute most to a change in measured sentiment. A challenge for any lexicon-based approach is that the lexicon needs to be routinely expanded with new words and expressions. Here, we propose two models for automatic lexicon expansion. Our first model establishes a baseline employing a simple and shallow neural network initialized with pre-trained word embeddings using a non-contextual approach. Our second model improves upon our baseline, featuring a deep Transformer-based network that brings to bear word definitions to estimate their lexical polarity. Our evaluation shows that both models are able to score new words with a similar accuracy to reviewers from Amazon Mechanical Turk, but at a fraction of the cost.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

The sociospatial factors of death: Analyzing effects of geospatially-distributed variables in a Bayesian mortality model for Hong Kong

Human mortality is in part a function of multiple socioeconomic factors that differ both spatially and temporally. Adjusting for other covariates, the human lifespan is positively associated with household wealth. However, the extent to which mortality in a geographical region is a function of socioeconomic factors in both that region and its neighbors is unclear. There is also little information on the temporal components of this relationship. Using the districts of Hong Kong over multiple census years as a case study, we demonstrate that there are differences in how wealth indicator variables are associated with longevity in (a) areas that are affluent but neighbored by socially deprived districts versus (b) wealthy areas surrounded by similarly wealthy districts. We also show that the inclusion of spatially-distributed variables reduces uncertainty in mortality rate predictions in each census year when compared with a baseline model. Our results suggest that geographic mortality models should incorporate nonlocal information (e.g., spatial neighbors) to lower the variance of their mortality estimates, and point to a more in-depth analysis of sociospatial spillover effects on mortality rates.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Characterizing the Google Books corpus: Strong limits to inferences of socio-cultural and linguistic evolution

It is tempting to treat frequency trends from the Google Books data sets as indicators of the "true" popularity of various words and phrases. Doing so allows us to draw quantitatively strong conclusions about the evolution of cultural perception of a given topic, such as time or gender. However, the Google Books corpus suffers from a number of limitations which make it an obscure mask of cultural popularity. A primary issue is that the corpus is in effect a library, containing one of each book. A single, prolific author is thereby able to noticeably insert new phrases into the Google Books lexicon, whether the author is widely read or not. With this understood, the Google Books corpus remains an important data set to be considered more lexicon-like than text-like. Here, we show that a distinct problematic feature arises from the inclusion of scientific texts, which have become an increasingly substantive portion of the corpus throughout the 1900s. The result is a surge of phrases typical to academic articles but less common in general, such as references to time in the form of citations. We highlight these dynamics by examining and comparing major contributions to the statistical divergence of English data sets between decades in the period 1800--2000. We find that only the English Fiction data set from the second version of the corpus is not heavily affected by professional texts, in clear contrast to the first version of the fiction data set and both unfiltered English data sets. Our findings emphasize the need to fully characterize the dynamics of the Google Books corpus before using these data sets to draw broad conclusions about cultural and linguistic evolution.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Divergent modes of online collective attention to the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with future caseload variance

Using a random 10% sample of tweets authored from 2019-09-01 through 2020-04-30, we analyze the dynamic behavior of words (1-grams) used on Twitter to describe the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Across 24 languages, we find two distinct dynamic regimes: One characterizing the rise and subsequent collapse in collective attention to the initial Coronavirus outbreak in late January, and a second that represents March COVID-19-related discourse. Aggregating countries by dominant language use, we find that volatility in the first dynamic regime is associated with future volatility in new cases of COVID-19 roughly three weeks (average 22.49 $\pm$ 3.26 days) later. Our results suggest that surveillance of change in usage of epidemiology-related words on social media may be useful in forecasting later change in disease case numbers, but we emphasize that our current findings are not causal or necessarily predictive.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Generalized Word Shift Graphs: A Method for Visualizing and Explaining Pairwise Comparisons Between Texts

A common task in computational text analyses is to quantify how two corpora differ according to a measurement like word frequency, sentiment, or information content. However, collapsing the texts' rich stories into a single number is often conceptually perilous, and it is difficult to confidently interpret interesting or unexpected textual patterns without looming concerns about data artifacts or measurement validity. To better capture fine-grained differences between texts, we introduce generalized word shift graphs, visualizations which yield a meaningful and interpretable summary of how individual words contribute to the variation between two texts for any measure that can be formulated as a weighted average. We show that this framework naturally encompasses many of the most commonly used approaches for comparing texts, including relative frequencies, dictionary scores, and entropy-based measures like the Kullback-Leibler and Jensen-Shannon divergences. Through several case studies, we demonstrate how generalized word shift graphs can be flexibly applied across domains for diagnostic investigation, hypothesis generation, and substantive interpretation. By providing a detailed lens into textual shifts between corpora, generalized word shift graphs help computational social scientists, digital humanists, and other text analysis practitioners fashion more robust scientific narratives.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Local information sources received the most attention from Puerto Ricans during the aftermath of Hurricane María

In September 2017, Hurricane María made landfall across the Caribbean region as a category 4 storm. In the aftermath, many residents of Puerto Rico were without power or clean running water for nearly a year. Using both English and Spanish tweets from September 16 to October 15 2017, we investigate discussion of María both on and off the island, constructing a proxy for the temporal network of communication between victims of the hurricane and others. We use information theoretic tools to compare the lexical divergence of different subgroups within the network. Lastly, we quantify temporal changes in user prominence throughout the event. We find at the global level that Spanish tweets more often contained messages of hope and a focus on those helping. At the local level, we find that information propagating among Puerto Ricans most often originated from sources local to the island, such as journalists and politicians. Critically, content from these accounts overshadows content from celebrities, global news networks, and the like for the large majority of the time period studied. Our findings reveal insight into ways social media campaigns could be deployed to disseminate relief information during similar events in the future.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Noncooperative dynamics in election interference

Foreign power interference in domestic elections is an existential threat to societies. Manifested through myriad methods from war to words, such interference is a timely example of strategic interaction between economic and political agents. We model this interaction between rational game players as a continuous-time differential game, constructing an analytical model of this competition with a variety of payoff structures. All-or-nothing attitudes by only one player regarding the outcome of the game lead to an arms race in which both countries spend increasing amounts on interference and counter-interference operations. We then confront our model with data pertaining to the Russian interference in the 2016 United States presidential election contest. We introduce and estimate a Bayesian structural time series model of election polls and social media posts by Russian Twitter troll accounts. Our analytical model, while purposefully abstract and simple, adequately captures many temporal characteristics of the election and social media activity. We close with a discussion of our model's shortcomings and suggestions for future research.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

The sleep loss insult of Spring Daylight Savings in the US is absorbed by Twitter users within 48 hours

Sleep loss has been linked to heart disease, diabetes, cancer, and an increase in accidents, all of which are among the leading causes of death in the United States. Population-scale sleep studies have the potential to advance public health by helping to identify at-risk populations, changes in collective sleep patterns, and to inform policy change. Prior research suggests other kinds of health indicators such as depression and obesity can be estimated using social media activity. However, the inability to effectively measure collective sleep with publicly available data has limited large-scale academic studies. Here, we investigate the passive estimation of sleep loss through a proxy analysis of Twitter activity profiles. We use "Spring Forward" events, which occur at the beginning of Daylight Savings Time in the United States, as a natural experimental condition to estimate spatial differences in sleep loss across the United States. On average, peak Twitter activity occurs roughly 45 minutes later on the Sunday following Spring Forward. By Monday morning however, activity curves are realigned with the week before, suggesting that at least on Twitter, the lost hour of early Sunday morning has been quickly absorbed.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2019arXiv

Hahahahaha, Duuuuude, Yeeessss!: A two-parameter characterization of stretchable words and the dynamics of mistypings and misspellings

Stretched words like `heellllp' or `heyyyyy' are a regular feature of spoken language, often used to emphasize or exaggerate the underlying meaning of the root word. While stretched words are rarely found in formal written language and dictionaries, they are prevalent within social media. In this paper, we examine the frequency distributions of `stretchable words' found in roughly 100 billion tweets authored over an 8 year period. We introduce two central parameters, `balance' and `stretch', that capture their main characteristics, and explore their dynamics by creating visual tools we call `balance plots' and `spelling trees'. We discuss how the tools and methods we develop here could be used to study the statistical patterns of mistypings and misspellings, along with the potential applications in augmenting dictionaries, improving language processing, and in any area where sequence construction matters, such as genetics.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2017arXiv

Divergent discourse between protests and counter-protests: #BlackLivesMatter and #AllLivesMatter

Since the shooting of Black teenager Michael Brown by White police officer Darren Wilson in Ferguson, Missouri, the protest hashtag #BlackLivesMatter has amplified critiques of extrajudicial killings of Black Americans. In response to #BlackLivesMatter, other Twitter users have adopted #AllLivesMatter, a counter-protest hashtag whose content argues that equal attention should be given to all lives regardless of race. Through a multi-level analysis of over 860,000 tweets, we study how these protests and counter-protests diverge by quantifying aspects of their discourse. We find that #AllLivesMatter facilitates opposition between #BlackLivesMatter and hashtags such as #PoliceLivesMatter and #BlueLivesMatter in such a way that historically echoes the tension between Black protesters and law enforcement. In addition, we show that a significant portion of #AllLivesMatter use stems from hijacking by #BlackLivesMatter advocates. Beyond simply injecting #AllLivesMatter with #BlackLivesMatter content, these hijackers use the hashtag to directly confront the counter-protest notion of "All lives matter." Our findings suggest that Black Lives Matter movement was able to grow, exhibit diverse conversations, and avoid derailment on social media by making discussion of counter-protest opinions a central topic of #AllLivesMatter, rather than the movement itself.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Benchmarking sentiment analysis methods for large-scale texts: A case for using continuum-scored words and word shift graphs

The emergence and global adoption of social media has rendered possible the real-time estimation of population-scale sentiment, bearing profound implications for our understanding of human behavior. Given the growing assortment of sentiment measuring instruments, comparisons between them are evidently required. Here, we perform detailed tests of 6 dictionary-based methods applied to 4 different corpora, and briefly examine a further 20 methods. We show that a dictionary-based method will only perform both reliably and meaningfully if (1) the dictionary covers a sufficiently large enough portion of a given text's lexicon when weighted by word usage frequency; and (2) words are scored on a continuous scale.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Forecasting the onset and course of mental illness with Twitter data

We developed computational models to predict the emergence of depression and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder in Twitter users. Twitter data and details of depression history were collected from 204 individuals (105 depressed, 99 healthy). We extracted predictive features measuring affect, linguistic style, and context from participant tweets (N=279,951) and built models using these features with supervised learning algorithms. Resulting models successfully discriminated between depressed and healthy content, and compared favorably to general practitioners' average success rates in diagnosing depression. Results held even when the analysis was restricted to content posted before first depression diagnosis. State-space temporal analysis suggests that onset of depression may be detectable from Twitter data several months prior to diagnosis. Predictive results were replicated with a separate sample of individuals diagnosed with PTSD (174 users, 243,775 tweets). A state-space time series model revealed indicators of PTSD almost immediately post-trauma, often many months prior to clinical diagnosis. These methods suggest a data-driven, predictive approach for early screening and detection of mental illness.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Predicting Flow Reversals in a Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulated Thermosyphon using Data Assimilation

A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics analogous to the Earth's weather. As is the case for state-of-the-art weather models, we only observe the statistics over a small region of state space, making prediction difficult. To overcome this challenge, data assimilation (DA) methods, and specifically ensemble methods, use the computational model itself to estimate the uncertainty of the model to optimally combine these observations into an initial condition for predicting the future state. Here, we build and verify four distinct DA methods, and then, we perform a twin model experiment with the computational fluid dynamics simulation of the loop using the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) to assimilate observations and predict flow reversals. We show that using adaptively shaped localized covariance outperforms static localized covariance with the ETKF, and allows for the use of less observations in predicting flow reversals. We also show that a Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) of the temperature and velocity fields recovers the low dimensional system underlying reversals, finding specific modes which together are predictive of reversal direction.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Public Opinion Polling with Twitter

Solicited public opinion surveys reach a limited subpopulation of willing participants and are expensive to conduct, leading to poor time resolution and a restricted pool of expert-chosen survey topics. In this study, we demonstrate that unsolicited public opinion polling through sentiment analysis applied to Twitter correlates well with a range of traditional measures, and has predictive power for issues of global importance. We also examine Twitter's potential to canvas topics seldom surveyed, including ideas, personal feelings, and perceptions of commercial enterprises. Two of our major observations are that appropriately filtered Twitter sentiment (1) predicts President Obama's job approval three months in advance, and (2) correlates well with surveyed consumer sentiment. To make possible a full examination of our work and to enable others' research, we make public over 10,000 data sets, each a seven-year series of daily word counts for tweets containing a frequently used search term.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Sifting Robotic from Organic Text: A Natural Language Approach for Detecting Automation on Twitter

Twitter, a popular social media outlet, has evolved into a vast source of linguistic data, rich with opinion, sentiment, and discussion. Due to the increasing popularity of Twitter, its perceived potential for exerting social influence has led to the rise of a diverse community of automatons, commonly referred to as bots. These inorganic and semi-organic Twitter entities can range from the benevolent (e.g., weather-update bots, help-wanted-alert bots) to the malevolent (e.g., spamming messages, advertisements, or radical opinions). Existing detection algorithms typically leverage meta-data (time between tweets, number of followers, etc.) to identify robotic accounts. Here, we present a powerful classification scheme that exclusively uses the natural language text from organic users to provide a criterion for identifying accounts posting automated messages. Since the classifier operates on text alone, it is flexible and may be applied to any textual data beyond the Twitter-sphere.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Tracking the Teletherms: The spatiotemporal dynamics of the hottest and coldest days of the year

Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental markers of location-sensitive seasonal variations: the Summer and Winter Teletherms---the on-average annual dates of the hottest and coldest days of the year. We analyse daily temperature extremes recorded at 1218 stations across the contiguous United States from 1853--2012, and observe large regional variation with the Summer Teletherm falling up to 90 days after the Summer Solstice, and 50 days for the Winter Teletherm after the Winter Solstice. We show that Teletherm temporal dynamics are substantive with clear and in some cases dramatic shifts reflective of system bifurcations. We also compare recorded daily temperature extremes with output from two regional climate models finding considerable though relatively unbiased error. Our work demonstrates that Teletherms are an intuitive, powerful, and statistically sound measure of local climate change, and that they pose detailed, stringent challenges for future theoretical and computational models.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Transitions in climate and energy discourse between Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy

Although climate change and energy are intricately linked, their explicit connection is not always prominent in public discourse and the media. Disruptive extreme weather events, including hurricanes, focus public attention in new and different ways, offering a unique window of opportunity to analyze how a focusing event influences public discourse. Media coverage of extreme weather events simultaneously shapes and reflects public discourse on climate issues. Here we analyze climate and energy newspaper coverage of Hurricanes Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012) using topic models, mathematical techniques used to discover abstract topics within a set of documents. Our results demonstrate that post-Katrina media coverage does not contain a climate change topic, and the energy topic is limited to discussion of energy prices, markets, and the economy with almost no explicit linkages made between energy and climate change. In contrast, post-Sandy media coverage does contain a prominent climate change topic, a distinct energy topic, as well as integrated representation of climate change and energy, indicating a shift in climate and energy reporting between Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Vaporous Marketing: Uncovering Pervasive Electronic Cigarette Advertisements on Twitter

Background: Twitter has become the "wild-west" of marketing and promotional strategies for advertisement agencies. Electronic cigarettes have been heavily marketed across Twitter feeds, offering discounts, "kid-friendly" flavors, algorithmically generated false testimonials, and free samples. Methods:All electronic cigarette keyword related tweets from a 10% sample of Twitter spanning January 2012 through December 2014 (approximately 850,000 total tweets) were identified and categorized as Automated or Organic by combining a keyword classification and a machine trained Human Detection algorithm. A sentiment analysis using Hedonometrics was performed on Organic tweets to quantify the change in consumer sentiments over time. Commercialized tweets were topically categorized with key phrasal pattern matching. Results:The overwhelming majority (80%) of tweets were classified as automated or promotional in nature. The majority of these tweets were coded as commercialized (83.65% in 2013), up to 33% of which offered discounts or free samples and appeared on over a billion twitter feeds as impressions. The positivity of Organic (human) classified tweets has decreased over time (5.84 in 2013 to 5.77 in 2014) due to a relative increase in the negative words ban,tobacco,doesn't,drug,against,poison,tax and a relative decrease in the positive words like haha,good,cool. Automated tweets are more positive than organic (6.17 versus 5.84) due to a relative increase in the marketing words best,win,buy,sale,health,discount and a relative decrease in negative words like bad, hate, stupid, don't. Conclusions:Due to the youth presence on Twitter and the clinical uncertainty of the long term health complications of electronic cigarette consumption, the protection of public health warrants scrutiny and potential regulation of social media marketing.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Zipf's law is a consequence of coherent language production

The task of text segmentation may be undertaken at many levels in text analysis---paragraphs, sentences, words, or even letters. Here, we focus on a relatively fine scale of segmentation, hypothesizing it to be in accord with a stochastic model of language generation, as the smallest scale where independent units of meaning are produced. Our goals in this letter include the development of methods for the segmentation of these minimal independent units, which produce feature-representations of texts that align with the independence assumption of the bag-of-terms model, commonly used for prediction and classification in computational text analysis. We also propose the measurement of texts' association (with respect to realized segmentations) to the model of language generation. We find (1) that our segmentations of phrases exhibit much better associations to the generation model than words and (2), that texts which are well fit are generally topically homogeneous. Because our generative model produces Zipf's law, our study further suggests that Zipf's law may be a consequence of homogeneity in language production.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Climate change sentiment on Twitter: An unsolicited public opinion poll

The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Constructing a taxonomy of fine-grained human movement and activity motifs through social media

Profiting from the emergence of web-scale social data sets, numerous recent studies have systematically explored human mobility patterns over large populations and large time scales. Relatively little attention, however, has been paid to mobility and activity over smaller time-scales, such as a day. Here, we use Twitter to identify people's frequently visited locations along with their likely activities as a function of time of day and day of week, capitalizing on both the content and geolocation of messages. We subsequently characterize people's transition pattern motifs and demonstrate that spatial information is encoded in word choice.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Direct, physically motivated derivation of triggering probabilities for spreading processes on generalized random networks

We derive a general expression for the probability of global spreading starting from a single infected seed for contagion processes acting on generalized, correlated random networks. We employ a simple probabilistic argument that encodes the spreading mechanism in an intuitive, physical fashion. We use our approach to directly and systematically obtain triggering probabilities for contagion processes acting on a collection of random network families including bipartite random networks. We find the contagion condition, the location of the phase transition into an endemic state, from an expansion about the disease-free state.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Identifying missing dictionary entries with frequency-conserving context models

In an effort to better understand meaning from natural language texts, we explore methods aimed at organizing lexical objects into contexts. A number of these methods for organization fall into a family defined by word ordering. Unlike demographic or spatial partitions of data, these collocation models are of special importance for their universal applicability. While we are interested here in text and have framed our treatment appropriately, our work is potentially applicable to other areas of research (e.g., speech, genomics, and mobility patterns) where one has ordered categorical data, (e.g., sounds, genes, and locations). Our approach focuses on the phrase (whether word or larger) as the primary meaning-bearing lexical unit and object of study. To do so, we employ our previously developed framework for generating word-conserving phrase-frequency data. Upon training our model with the Wiktionary---an extensive, online, collaborative, and open-source dictionary that contains over 100,000 phrasal-definitions---we develop highly effective filters for the identification of meaningful, missing phrase-entries. With our predictions we then engage the editorial community of the Wiktionary and propose short lists of potential missing entries for definition, developing a breakthrough, lexical extraction technique, and expanding our knowledge of the defined English lexicon of phrases.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Quantitative patterns in drone wars

Attacks by drones (i.e., unmanned combat air vehicles) continue to generate heated political and ethical debates. Here we examine the quantitative nature of drone attacks, focusing on how their intensity and frequency compare with that of other forms of human conflict. Instead of the power-law distribution found recently for insurgent and terrorist attacks, the severity of attacks is more akin to lognormal and exponential distributions, suggesting that the dynamics underlying drone attacks lie beyond these other forms of human conflict. We find that the pattern in the timing of attacks is consistent with one side having almost complete control, an important if expected result. We show that these novel features can be reproduced and understood using a generative mathematical model in which resource allocation to the dominant side is regulated through a feedback loop.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Text mixing shapes the anatomy of rank-frequency distributions: A modern Zipfian mechanics for natural language

Natural languages are full of rules and exceptions. One of the most famous quantitative rules is Zipf's law which states that the frequency of occurrence of a word is approximately inversely proportional to its rank. Though this `law' of ranks has been found to hold across disparate texts and forms of data, analyses of increasingly large corpora over the last 15 years have revealed the existence of two scaling regimes. These regimes have thus far been explained by a hypothesis suggesting a separability of languages into core and non-core lexica. Here, we present and defend an alternative hypothesis, that the two scaling regimes result from the act of aggregating texts. We observe that text mixing leads to an effective decay of word introduction, which we show provides accurate predictions of the location and severity of breaks in scaling. Upon examining large corpora from 10 languages in the Project Gutenberg eBooks collection (eBooks), we find emphatic empirical support for the universality of our claim.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Zipf's law holds for phrases, not words

With Zipf's law being originally and most famously observed for word frequency, it is surprisingly limited in its applicability to human language, holding over no more than three to four orders of magnitude before hitting a clear break in scaling. Here, building on the simple observation that phrases of one or more words comprise the most coherent units of meaning in language, we show empirically that Zipf's law for phrases extends over as many as nine orders of rank magnitude. In doing so, we develop a principled and scalable statistical mechanical method of random text partitioning, which opens up a rich frontier of rigorous text analysis via a rank ordering of mixed length phrases.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

An Evolutionary Algorithm Approach to Link Prediction in Dynamic Social Networks

Many real world, complex phenomena have underlying structures of evolving networks where nodes and links are added and removed over time. A central scientific challenge is the description and explanation of network dynamics, with a key test being the prediction of short and long term changes. For the problem of short-term link prediction, existing methods attempt to determine neighborhood metrics that correlate with the appearance of a link in the next observation period. Recent work has suggested that the incorporation of topological features and node attributes can improve link prediction. We provide an approach to predicting future links by applying the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) to optimize weights which are used in a linear combination of sixteen neighborhood and node similarity indices. We examine a large dynamic social network with over $10^6$ nodes (Twitter reciprocal reply networks), both as a test of our general method and as a problem of scientific interest in itself. Our method exhibits fast convergence and high levels of precision for the top twenty predicted links. Based on our findings, we suggest possible factors which may be driving the evolution of Twitter reciprocal reply networks.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Collective Philanthropy: Describing and Modeling the Ecology of Giving

Reflective of income and wealth distributions, philanthropic gifting appears to follow an approximate power-law size distribution as measured by the size of gifts received by individual institutions. We explore the ecology of gifting by analysing data sets of individual gifts for a diverse group of institutions dedicated to education, medicine, art, public support, and religion. We find that the detailed forms of gift-size distributions differ across but are relatively constant within charity categories. We construct a model for how a donor's income affects their giving preferences in different charity categories, offering a mechanistic explanation for variations in institutional gift-size distributions. We discuss how knowledge of gift-sized distributions may be used to assess an institution's gift-giving profile, to help set fundraising goals, and to design an institution-specific giving pyramid.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Dynamical influence processes on networks: General theory and applications to social contagion

We study binary state dynamics on a network where each node acts in response to the average state of its neighborhood. Allowing varying amounts of stochasticity in both the network and node responses, we find different outcomes in random and deterministic versions of the model. In the limit of a large, dense network, however, we show that these dynamics coincide. We construct a general mean field theory for random networks and show this predicts that the dynamics on the network are a smoothed version of the average response function dynamics. Thus, the behavior of the system can range from steady state to chaotic depending on the response functions, network connectivity, and update synchronicity. As a specific example, we model the competing tendencies of imitation and non-conformity by incorporating an off-threshold into standard threshold models of social contagion. In this way we attempt to capture important aspects of fashions and societal trends. We compare our theory to extensive simulations of this "limited imitation contagion" model on Poisson random graphs, finding agreement between the mean-field theory and stochastic simulations.

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preprint2014arXiv

Human language reveals a universal positivity bias

Using human evaluation of 100,000 words spread across 24 corpora in 10 languages diverse in origin and culture, we present evidence of a deep imprint of human sociality in language, observing that (1) the words of natural human language possess a universal positivity bias; (2) the estimated emotional content of words is consistent between languages under translation; and (3) this positivity bias is strongly independent of frequency of word usage. Alongside these general regularities, we describe inter-language variations in the emotional spectrum of languages which allow us to rank corpora. We also show how our word evaluations can be used to construct physical-like instruments for both real-time and offline measurement of the emotional content of large-scale texts.

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preprint2014arXiv

Standing Swells Surveyed Showing Surprisingly Stable Solutions for the Lorenz '96 Model

The Lorenz '96 model is an adjustable dimension system of ODEs exhibiting chaotic behavior representative of dynamics observed in the Earth's atmosphere. In the present study, we characterize statistical properties of the chaotic dynamics while varying the degrees of freedom and the forcing. Tuning the dimensionality of the system, we find regions of parameter space with surprising stability in the form of standing waves traveling amongst the slow oscillators. The boundaries of these stable regions fluctuate regularly with the number of slow oscillators. These results demonstrate hidden order in the Lorenz '96 system, strengthening the evidence for its role as a hallmark representative of nonlinear dynamical behavior.

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preprint2013arXiv

Limited Imitation Contagion on Random Networks: Chaos, Universality, and Unpredictability

We study a family of binary state, socially-inspired contagion models which incorporate imitation limited by an aversion to complete conformity. We uncover rich behavior in our models whether operating with either probabilistic or deterministic individual response functions on both dynamic and fixed random networks. In particular, we find significant variation in the limiting behavior of a population's infected fraction, ranging from steady-state to chaotic. We show that period doubling arises as we increase the average node degree, and that the universality class of this well known route to chaos depends on the interaction structure of random networks rather than the microscopic behavior of individual nodes. We find that increasing the fixedness of the system tends to stabilize the infected fraction, yet disjoint, multiple equilibria are possible depending solely on the choice of the initially infected node.

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preprint2013arXiv

The Geography of Happiness: Connecting Twitter sentiment and expression, demographics, and objective characteristics of place

We conduct a detailed investigation of correlations between real-time expressions of individuals made across the United States and a wide range of emotional, geographic, demographic, and health characteristics. We do so by combining (1) a massive, geo-tagged data set comprising over 80 million words generated over the course of several recent years on the social network service Twitter and (2) annually-surveyed characteristics of all 50 states and close to 400 urban populations. Among many results, we generate taxonomies of states and cities based on their similarities in word use; estimate the happiness levels of states and cities; correlate highly-resolved demographic characteristics with happiness levels; and connect word choice and message length with urban characteristics such as education levels and obesity rates. Our results show how social media may potentially be used to estimate real-time levels and changes in population-level measures such as obesity rates.

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preprint2012arXiv

Positivity of the English language

Over the last million years, human language has emerged and evolved as a fundamental instrument of social communication and semiotic representation. People use language in part to convey emotional information, leading to the central and contingent questions: (1) What is the emotional spectrum of natural language? and (2) Are natural languages neutrally, positively, or negatively biased? Here, we report that the human-perceived positivity of over 10,000 of the most frequently used English words exhibits a clear positive bias. More deeply, we characterize and quantify distributions of word positivity for four large and distinct corpora, demonstrating that their form is broadly invariant with respect to frequency of word use.

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preprint2012arXiv

Twitter reciprocal reply networks exhibit assortativity with respect to happiness

The advent of social media has provided an extraordinary, if imperfect, 'big data' window into the form and evolution of social networks. Based on nearly 40 million message pairs posted to Twitter between September 2008 and February 2009, we construct and examine the revealed social network structure and dynamics over the time scales of days, weeks, and months. At the level of user behavior, we employ our recently developed hedonometric analysis methods to investigate patterns of sentiment expression. We find users' average happiness scores to be positively and significantly correlated with those of users one, two, and three links away. We strengthen our analysis by proposing and using a null model to test the effect of network topology on the assortativity of happiness. We also find evidence that more well connected users write happier status updates, with a transition occurring around Dunbar's number. More generally, our work provides evidence of a social sub-network structure within Twitter and raises several methodological points of interest with regard to social network reconstructions.

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preprint2011arXiv

Direct, physically-motivated derivation of the contagion condition for spreading processes on generalized random networks

For a broad range single-seed contagion processes acting on generalized random networks, we derive a unifying analytic expression for the possibility of global spreading events in a straightforward, physically intuitive fashion. Our reasoning lays bare a direct mechanical understanding of an archetypal spreading phenomena that is not evident in circuitous extant mathematical approaches.

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preprint2011arXiv

Exact solutions for social and biological contagion models on mixed directed and undirected, degree-correlated random networks

We derive analytic expressions for the possibility, probability, and expected size of global spreading events starting from a single infected seed for a broad collection of contagion processes acting on random networks with both directed and undirected edges and arbitrary degree-degree correlations. Our work extends previous theoretical developments for the undirected case, and we provide numerical support for our findings by investigating an example class of networks for which we are able to obtain closed-form expressions.

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preprint2011arXiv

Temporal patterns of happiness and information in a global social network: Hedonometrics and Twitter

Individual happiness is a fundamental societal metric. Normally measured through self-report, happiness has often been indirectly characterized and overshadowed by more readily quantifiable economic indicators such as gross domestic product. Here, we examine expressions made on the online, global microblog and social networking service Twitter, uncovering and explaining temporal variations in happiness and information levels over timescales ranging from hours to years. Our data set comprises over 46 billion words contained in nearly 4.6 billion expressions posted over a 33 month span by over 63 million unique users. In measuring happiness, we use a real-time, remote-sensing, non-invasive, text-based approach---a kind of hedonometer. In building our metric, made available with this paper, we conducted a survey to obtain happiness evaluations of over 10,000 individual words, representing a tenfold size improvement over similar existing word sets. Rather than being ad hoc, our word list is chosen solely by frequency of usage and we show how a highly robust metric can be constructed and defended.

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preprint2009arXiv

Analysis of a threshold model of social contagion on degree-correlated networks

We analytically determine when a range of abstract social contagion models permit global spreading from a single seed on degree-correlated random networks. We deduce the expected size of the largest vulnerable component, a network's tinderbox-like critical mass, as well as the probability that infecting a randomly chosen individual seed will trigger global spreading. In the appropriate limits, our results naturally reduce to standard ones for models of disease spreading and to the condition for the existence of a giant component. Recent advances in the distributed, infinite seed case allow us to further determine the final size of global spreading events, when they occur. To provide support for our results, we derive exact expressions for key spreading quantities for a simple yet rich family of random networks with bimodal degree distributions.

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preprint2000arXiv

Geometry of River Networks I: Scaling, Fluctuations, and Deviations

This article is the first in a series of three papers investigating the detailed geometry of river networks. Large-scale river networks mark an important class of two-dimensional branching networks, being not only of intrinsic interest but also a pervasive natural phenomenon. In the description of river network structure, scaling laws are uniformly observed. Reported values of scaling exponents vary suggesting that no unique set of scaling exponents exists. To improve this current understanding of scaling in river networks and to provide a fuller description of branching network structure, we report here a theoretical and empirical study of fluctuations about and deviations from scaling. We examine data for continent-scale river networks such as the Mississippi and the Amazon and draw inspiration from a simple model of directed, random networks. We center our investigations on the scaling of the length of sub-basin's dominant stream with its area, a characterization of basin shape known as Hack's law. We generalize this relationship to a joint probability density and show that fluctuations about scaling are substantial. We find strong deviations from scaling at small scales which can be explained by the existence of linear network structure. At intermediate scales, we find slow drifts in exponent values indicating that scaling is only approximately obeyed and that universality remains indeterminate. At large scales, we observe a breakdown in scaling due to decreasing sample space and correlations with overall basin shape. The extent of approximate scaling is significantly restricted by these deviations and will not be improved by increases in network resolution.

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preprint2000arXiv

Geometry of River Networks II: Distributions of Component Size and Number

The structure of a river network may be seen as a discrete set of nested sub-networks built out of individual stream segments. These network components are assigned an integral stream order via a hierarchical and discrete ordering method. Exponential relationships, known as Horton's laws, between stream order and ensemble-averaged quantities pertaining to network components are observed. We extend these observations to incorporate fluctuations and all higher moments by developing functional relationships between distributions. The relationships determined are drawn from a combination of theoretical analysis, analysis of real river networks including the Mississippi, Amazon and Nile, and numerical simulations on a model of directed, random networks. Underlying distributions of stream segment lengths are identified as exponential. Combinations of these distributions form single-humped distributions with exponential tails, the sums of which are in turn shown to give power law distributions of stream lengths. Distributions of basin area and stream segment frequency are also addressed. The calculations identify a single length-scale as a measure of size fluctuations in network components. This article is the second in a series of three addressing the geometry of river networks.

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preprint2000arXiv

Geometry of River Networks III: Characterization of Component Connectivity

River networks serve as a paradigmatic example of all branching networks. Essential to understanding the overall structure of river networks is a knowledge of their detailed architecture. Here we show that sub-branches are distributed exponentially in size and that they are randomly distributed in space, thereby completely characterizing the most basic level of river network description. Specifically, an averaged view of network architecture is first provided by a proposed self-similarity statement about the scaling of drainage density, a local measure of stream concentration. This scaling of drainage density is shown to imply Tokunaga's law, a description of the scaling of side branch abundance along a given stream, as well as a scaling law for stream lengths. This establishes the scaling of the length scale associated with drainage density as the basic signature of self-similarity in river networks. We then consider fluctuations in drainage density and consequently the numbers of side branches. Data is analyzed for the Mississippi River basin and a model of random directed networks. Numbers of side streams are found to follow exponential distributions as are stream lengths and inter-tributary distances along streams. Finally, we derive the joint variation of side stream abundance with stream length, affording a full description of fluctuations in network structure. Fluctuations in side stream numbers are shown to be a direct result of fluctuations in stream lengths. This is the last paper in a series of three on the geometry of river networks.

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preprint2000arXiv

Unified View of Scaling Laws for River Networks

Scaling laws that describe the structure of river networks are shown to follow from three simple assumptions. These assumptions are: (1) river networks are structurally self-similar, (2) single channels are self-affine, and (3) overland flow into channels occurs over a characteristic distance (drainage density is uniform). We obtain a complete set of scaling relations connecting the exponents of these scaling laws and find that only two of these exponents are independent. We further demonstrate that the two predominant descriptions of network structure (Tokunaga's law and Horton's laws) are equivalent in the case of landscapes with uniform drainage density. The results are tested with data from both real landscapes and a special class of random networks.

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