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physics.ao-ph

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preprint2017arXiv

Super- and sub-rotating equatorial jets: Newtonian cooling versus Rayleigh friction

Numerical simulations of the shallow water equations on rotating spheres produce mixtures of robust vortices and alternating zonal jets, as seen in the atmospheres of the gas giant planets. However, simulations that include Rayleigh friction invariably produce a sub-rotating (retrograde) equatorial jet for Jovian parameter regimes, whilst observations of Jupiter show a super-rotating (prograde) equatorial jet that has persisted over several decades. Super-rotating equatorial jets have recently been obtained in shallow water simulations that include a Newtonian relaxation of perturbations to the layer thickness to model radiative cooling to space, and in simulations of the thermal shallow water equations that include a similar relaxation term in their temperature equation. Simulations of global quasigeostrophic forms of these different models produce equatorial jets in the same directions as the parent models, suggesting that the mechanism responsible for setting the direction lies within quasigeostrophic theory. We provide such a mechanism by calculating the effective force acting on the thickness-weighted zonal mean flow due to the decay of an equatorially trapped Rossby wave. Dec

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preprint2016arXiv

Revisiting the round bottom flask rainbow experiment

A popular demonstration experiment in optics uses a round-bottom flask filled with water to project a circular rainbow on a screen with a hole through which the flask is illuminated. We show how the vessel's wall shifts the second-order and first-order bows towards each other and consequentially narrows down Alexander's dark band. We address the challenge this introduces in producing Alexander's dark band, and explain the importance of a sufficient distance of the flask to the screen. The wall-effect also introduces a splitting of the bows which can easily be misinterpreted.

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preprint2016arXiv

Pressure-dependent water absorption cross sections for exoplanets and other atmospheres

Many atmospheres (cool stars, brown dwarfs, giant planets, extrasolar planets) are predominately composed of molecular hydrogen and helium. H$_2{}^{16}$O is one of the best measured molecules in extrasolar planetary atmospheres to date and a major compound in the atmospheres of brown-dwarfs and oxygen-rich cool stars, yet the scope of experimental and theoretical studies on the pressure broadening of water vapour lines by collision with hydrogen and helium remains limited. Theoretical H$_2$- and He-broadening parameters of water vapour lines (rotational quantum number $J$ up to 50) are obtained for temperatures in the range 300 - 2000 K. Two approaches for calculation of line widths were used: (i) the averaged energy difference method and (ii) the empirical expression for $J$\p $J$\pp-dependence. Voigt profiles based on these widths and the BT2 line list are used to generate high resolution ($Δ\tildeν$ = 0.01 \cm) pressure broadened cross sections for a fixed range of temperatures and pressures between 300 - 2000 K and 0.001 - 10 bar. An interpolation procedure which can be used to determine cross sections at intermediate temperature and pressure is described. Pressure broadening p

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preprint2016arXiv

An Optical Atmospheric Phenomenon Observed in 1670 over the City of Astrakhan Was not a Mid-Latitude Aurora

It has been recently claimed (Zolotova and Ponyavin, Solar Phys., 291, 2869, 2016, ZP16 henceforth) that a mid-latitude optical phenomenon, which took place over the city of Astrakhan in July 1670, according to Russian chronicles, was a strong aurora borealis. If this was true, it would imply a very strong or even severe geomagnetic storm during the quietest part of the Maunder minimum. However, as we argue in this article, this conclusion is erroneous and caused by a misinterpretation of the chronicle record. As a result of a thorough analysis of the chronicle text, we show that the described phenomenon occurred during the daylight period of the day ("the last morning hour"), in the south direction ("towards noon"), and its description does not match that of an aurora. The date of the event was also incorrectly interpreted. We conclude that this phenomenon was not a mid-latitude aurora but an atmospheric phenomenon, the so-called sundog (or parhelion) which is a particular type of solar halo. Accordingly, the claim about a strong mid-latitude aurora during the deep Maunder minimum is not correct and should be dismissed.

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preprint2016arXiv

Plasma-screening effects in the atrophysically relevant He-like and Li-like Mg and Fe ions

The effect of plasma environment on the atomic energy levels of He-like and Li-like Mg and Fe ions have been studied using Debye model. The equation-of-motion coupled-cluster (EOMCC) and Fock-space coupled-cluster (FSCC) formalisms in the relativistic frame work have been adopted to describe the atomic states and the energy levels of the above plasma embedded ions. Salient features of these methods have been described to account the two electron screening effects through the Debye potentials. The two-body screening potential has been derived in the multipole expansion form to evaluate the reduced matrix elements in solving the equation of motion. Using this extended model, we have also predicted that quasi-degeneracy among the energy states having same principal quantum number ($n$) but different angular momentum ($l$) is slacken, whereas fine structure splitting is unaffected with increasing plasma strength. These knowledge are useful in estimatingradiative opacity, photoionization cross sections, line intensities, etc of the aforementioned astrophysical plasmas.

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preprint2016arXiv

An improvement of the SBU-YLIN microphysics scheme in squall line simulation

The default SBU-YLIN scheme in Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is proved having a limited capability of producing a reasonable cold pool in squall line simulations. With the help of wealthy observation data of a squall line, we finally improve it by: adding a density factor to the precipitating ice; modify the rain evaporation scheme and correct the saturation adjustment process. The improved SBU-YLIN scheme could produce a reasonable cold pool. Simulation of another two squall line cases in northern and eastern China confirm our modifications are effective. In addition, further analysis reveals that the modification of rain evaporation scheme is the most important among them.

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preprint2016arXiv

Is it always windy somewhere? Occurrence of low-wind-power events over large areas

The incidence of widespread low-wind conditions is important to the reliability and economics of electric grids with large amounts of wind power. In order to investigate a future in which wind plants are geographically widespread but interconnected, we examine how frequently low generation levels occur for wind power aggregated from distant, weakly-correlated wind generators. We simulate the wind power using anemometer data from nine tall-tower sites spanning the contiguous United States. We find that the number of low-power hours per year declines exponentially with the number of sites being aggregated. Hours with power levels below 5% of total capacity, for example, drop by a factor of about 60, from 2140 h/y for the median single site to 36 h/y for the generation aggregated from all nine sites; the standard deviations drops by a factor of 3. The systematic dependence of generation-level probability distribution "tails" on both number and power threshold is well described by the theory of Large Deviations. Combining this theory for tail behavior with the normal distribution for behavior near the mean allows us to estimate, without the use of any adjustable parameters, the

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preprint2016arXiv

Description of clustering of inertial particles in turbulent flows via finite-time Lyapunov exponents

An asymptotic solution is derived for the motion of inertial particles exposed to Stokes drag in an unsteady random flow. This solution provides the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a function of Stokes number and Lagrangian strain- and rotation-rates autocovariances. The sum of these exponents, which corresponds to a concentration-weighted divergence of particle velocity field, is considered as a measure of clustering. For inertial particles dispersed in an isotropic turbulent flow our analysis predicts maximum clustering at an intermediate Stokes number and minimal clustering at small and large Stokes numbers. Direct numerical simulations are performed for quantitative validation of our analysis, showing a reasonable agreement between the two.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Localization in High-Dimensional Monte Carlo Filtering

The high dimensionality and computational constraints associated with filtering problems in large-scale geophysical applications are particularly challenging for the Particle Filter (PF). Approximate but efficient methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are therefore usually preferred. A key element of these approximate methods is localization, which is in principle a general technique to avoid the curse of dimensionality and consists in limiting the influence of observations to neighboring sites. However, while it works effectively with the EnKF, localization introduces harmful discontinuities in the estimated physical fields when applied blindly to the PF. In the present paper, we explore two possible local algorithms based on the EnKPF, a hybrid method combining the EnKF and the PF. A simulation study in a conjugate normal setup allows to highlight the trade-offs involved when applying localization to PF type of algorithms in the high-dimensional setting. Experiments with the Lorenz96 model demonstrate the ability of the local EnKPF algorithms to perform well even with a small number of particles compared to the problem size.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Statistical Mechanics and the Climatology of the Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Distribution

We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev. Lett.} {\bf 115}, 148501, 2015), in which the thermodynamic growth rates are determined using observed climatology. In particular, the Fokker-Planck equation is coupled to the observationally consistent thermodynamic model of Eisenman \& Wettlaufer (\emph{Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA} {\bf 106}, pp. 28-32, 2009). We find that due to the combined effects of thermodynamics and mechanics, $g(h)$ spreads during winter and contracts during summer. This behavior is in agreement with recent satellite observations from CryoSat-2 (Kwok \& Cunningham, \emph{Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A} {\bf 373}, 20140157, 2015). Because $g(h)$ is a probability density function, we quantify all of the key moments (e.g., mean thickness, fraction of thin/thick ice, mean albedo, relaxation time scales) as greenhouse-gas radiative forcing, $ΔF_0$, increases. The mean ice thickness decays exponentially with $ΔF_0$, but {\em much slower} than do solely thermodynamic models. This exhib

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Stochastic Climate Theory

In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations contain a Markov term, a memory term and a term suggestive of stochastic noise. Within this framework we express standard model reduction methods such as averaging and homogenization which eliminate the memory term. We further discuss ways to deal with the memory term and how the type of noise depends on the underlying deterministic chaotic system. Secondly, we review current approaches in stochastic data-driven models. We discuss how the drift and diffusion coefficients of models in the form of stochastic differential equations can be estimated from observational data. We pay attention to situations where the data stems from multi scale systems, a relevant topic in the context of data from the climate system. Furthermore, we discuss the use of discrete stochastic processes (Markov chains) for e.g. stochastic subgrid-scale modeling and other topics in climate science.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Zonal-mean circulation response to reduced air-sea momentum roughness

The impact of uncertainties in surface layer physics on the atmospheric general circulation is comparatively unexplored. Here the sensitivity of the zonal-mean circulation to reduced air-sea momentum roughness ($Z_{0m}$) at low flow speed is investigated with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3). In an aquaplanet framework with prescribed sea surface temperatures, the response to reduced $Z_{0m}$ resembles the La Ni$\tilde{\text{n}}$a minus El Ni$\tilde{\text{n}}$o response to El Ni$\tilde{\text{n}}$o Southern Oscillation variability with: i) a poleward shift of the mid-latitude westerlies extending all the way to the surface; ii) a weak poleward shift of the subtropical descent region; and iii) a weakening of the Hadley circulation, which is generally also accompanied by a poleward shift of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the tropical surface easterlies. Mechanism-denial experiments show this response to be initiated by the reduction of tropical latent and sensible heat fluxes, effected by reducing $Z_{0m}$. The circulation response is elucidated by considering the effect of the tropical energy fluxes on the Hadley circulation strength, the upper tropospheric criti

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preprint2016arXiv

Postprocessing Galerkin method applied to a data assimilation algorithm: a uniform in time error estimate

We apply the Postprocessing Galerkin method to a recently introduced continuous data assimilation (downscaling) algorithm for obtaining a numerical approximation of the solution of the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations corresponding to given measurements from a coarse spatial mesh. Under suitable conditions on the relaxation (nudging) parameter, the resolution of the coarse spatial mesh and the resolution of the numerical scheme, we obtain uniform in time estimates for the error between the numerical approximation given by the Postprocessing Galerkin method and the reference solution corresponding to the measurements. Our results are valid for a large class of interpolant operators, including low Fourier modes and local averages over finite volume elements. Notably, we use here the 2D Navier-Stokes equations as a paradigm, but our results apply equally to other evolution equations, such as the Boussinesq system of Benard convection and other oceanic and atmospheric circulation models.

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preprint2016arXiv

Faster Arctic sea ice retreat in CMIP5 than in CMIP3 due to volcanoes

The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat than has been observed. However, this bias has been widely noted to have decreased in models participating in the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with the previous generation of models (CMIP3). Here we examine simulations from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. We find that simulated historical sea ice trends are influenced by volcanic forcing, which was included in all of the CMIP5 models but in only about half of the CMIP3 models. The volcanic forcing causes temporary simulated cooling in the 1980s and 1990s, which contributes to raising the simulated 1979-2013 global-mean surface temperature trends to values substantially larger than observed. We show that this warming bias is accompanied by an enhanced rate of Arctic sea ice retreat and hence a simulated sea ice trend that is closer to the observed value, which is consistent with previous findings of an approximately linear relationship between sea ice extent

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preprint2016arXiv

Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost. For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method rebuilds the multivariate aspect of the forecast from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product o

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preprint2016arXiv

Understanding decreases in land relative humidity with global warming: conceptual model and GCM simulations

Climate models simulate a strong land-ocean contrast in the response of near-surface relative humidity to global warming: relative humidity tends to increase slightly over oceans but decrease substantially over land. Surface energy balance arguments have been used to understand the response over ocean but are difficult to apply over more complex land surfaces. Here, a conceptual box model is introduced, involving moisture transport between the land and ocean boundary layers and evapotranspiration, to investigate the decreases in land relative humidity as the climate warms. The box model is applied to idealized and full-complexity (CMIP5) general circulation model simulations, and it is found to capture many of the features of the simulated changes in land relative humidity. The box model suggests there is a strong link between fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean, and the greater warming over land than ocean then implies a decrease in land relative humidity. Evapotranspiration is of secondary importance for the increase in specific humidity over land, but it matters more for the decrease in relative humidity. Further analysis shows there is a strong feedback

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

The theory of non-linear oscillator applied to the BiOS mechanism

The observed pseudo-periodic reversal of the upper layer circulation of the Ionian Sea has been assumed to be related to some internal feedback processes (density driven) by the so called BiOS (Adriatic-Ionian Bimodal Oscillating System) hypothesis. The mechanism seems to be very well described by a non-linear oscillator dynamical system. By setting the state variables as the salinity of Adriatic deep water and the sea level anomaly in the Ionian region a Van der Pol equation has been obtained. The periodic cycle so obtained is of the order of a decade as observed in the data. Furthermore, a periodic term, which mimics the decadal variability of the forcing (mainly atmospheric), produces a period doubling phenomenon which is typical of the forced Van der Pol oscillator. By considering also a stochastic gaussian noise acting as a forcing and a decadal periodic input term, having an amplitude much smaller than the noise variance, a sub-harmonic stochastic resonance appears in the solution for a certain range of the values of the parameters. This yields the possibility of a longer time scale variability of the BiOS mechanism.

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preprint2016arXiv

An analytical solution of the stationary fully-compressible linear Euler equations over orography

An analytical linear solution of the fully compressible Euler equations is found, in the particular case of a stationary two dimensional flow that passes over an orographic feature with small height-width ratio. A method based on the covariant formulation of the Euler equations is used, and the analytical vertical velocity as well as the horizontal velocity, density and pressure, are obtained. The analytical solution is tested against a numerical model in three different regimes, hydrostatic, non-hydrostatic and potential flow. The model used is a non-hydrostatic spectral semi-implicit model, with a height-based vertical coordinate. It is shown that there is a clear and consistent convergence of the numerical solution towards the analytical solution, when the resolution increases. The method described is intended to be used as an idealized test for numerical weather models.

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preprint2016arXiv

Zonal-flow dynamics from a phase-space perspective

The wave kinetic equation (WKE) describing drift-wave (DW) turbulence is widely used in studies of zonal flows (ZFs) emerging from DW turbulence. However, this formulation neglects the exchange of enstrophy between DWs and ZFs and also ignores effects beyond the geometrical-optics limit. We derive a modified theory that takes both of these effects into account, while still treating DW quanta ("driftons") as particles in phase space. The drifton dynamics is described by an equation of the Wigner-Moyal type, which is commonly known in the phase-space formulation of quantum mechanics. In the geometrical-optics limit, this formulation features additional terms missing in the traditional WKE that ensure exact conservation of the total enstrophy of the system, in addition to the total energy, which is the only conserved invariant in previous theories based on the WKE. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the importance of these additional terms. The proposed formulation can be considered as a phase-space representation of the second-order cumulant expansion, or CE2.

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preprint2016arXiv

A Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Kalman Filter

A new ensemble filter that allows for the uncertainty in the prior distribution is proposed and tested. The filter relies on the conditional Gaussian distribution of the state given the model-error and predictability-error covariance matrices. The latter are treated as random matrices and updated in a hierarchical Bayes scheme along with the state. The (hyper)prior distribution of the covariance matrices is assumed to be inverse Wishart. The new Hierarchical Bayes Ensemble Filter (HBEF) assimilates ensemble members as generalized observations and allows ordinary observations to influence the covariances. The actual probability distribution of the ensemble members is allowed to be different from the true one. An approximation that leads to a practicable analysis algorithm is proposed. The new filter is studied in numerical experiments with a doubly stochastic one-variable model of "truth". The model permits the assessment of the variance of the truth and the true filtering error variance at each time instance. The HBEF is shown to outperform the EnKF and the HEnKF by Myrseth and Omre (2010) in a wide range of filtering regimes in terms of performance of its primary and secon

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preprint2016arXiv

Evaluating the wind-induced mechanical noise on the InSight seismometers

The SEIS (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structures) instrument onboard the InSight mission to Mars is the critical instrument for determining the interior structure of Mars, the current level of tectonic activity and the meteorite flux. Meeting the performance requirements of the SEIS instrument is vital to successfully achieve these mission objectives. Here we analyse in-situ wind measurements from previous Mars space missions to understand the wind environment that we are likely to encounter on Mars, and then we use an elastic ground deformation model to evaluate the mechanical noise contributions on the SEIS instrument due to the interaction between the Martian winds and the InSight lander. Lander mechanical noise maps that will be used to select the best deployment site for SEIS once the InSight lander arrives on Mars are also presented. We find the lander mechanical noise may be a detectable signal on the InSight seismometers. However, for the baseline SEIS deployment position, the noise is expected to be below the total noise requirement >97% of the time and is, therefore, not expected to endanger the InSight mission objectives.

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preprint2016arXiv

Clouds effect on the Atmospheric Total Column Carbon Dioxide Retrieval by Space Orbiting Argus 1000 Micro-spectrometer: Introductory Study

Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is one of the most important greenhouse gases after water vapor (H2O) which plays significant role in the climate process. Accurate space-based measurement of CO2 is of great significance in inferring the location of CO2 sources and sinks. Uncertainties in greenhouse gases (GHG) retrieval process must be minimized to accurately infer the actual amount of the atmospheric species. Clouds pose a large uncertainty in CO2 space-based retrieval process leading, mostly, to an underestimation in the CO2 absorption amount above the cloud layer provided that photons do not perform multiple paths. In this paper, three different cases of data collected over cloudy and clear skies by Argus 1000 micro-spectrometer were analyzed. Findings show that the CO2 absorption in the absence of clouds is approximately 4.5% higher than when clouds are present.

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preprint2016arXiv

Optical turbulence forecast: ready for an operational application

One of the main goals of the feasibility study MOSE (MOdellig ESO Sites) is to evaluate the performances of a method conceived to forecast the optical turbulence above the ESO sites of the Very Large Telescope and the European-Extremely Large Telescope in Chile. The method implied the use of a dedicated code conceived for the optical turbulence (OT) called Astro-Meso-Nh. In this paper we present results we obtained at conclusion of this project concerning the performances of this method in forecasting the most relevant parameters related to the optical turbulence (CN2, seeing , isoplanatic angle theta_0 and wavefront coherence time tau_0). Numerical predictions related to a very rich statistical sample of nights uniformly distributed along a solar year and belonging to different years have been compared to observations and different statistical operators have been analyzed such as classical bias, RMSE and and more sophisticated statistical operators derived by the contingency tables that are able to quantify the score of success of a predictive method such as the percentage of correct detection (PC) and the probability to detect a parameter within a specific range of values (POD).

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preprint2016arXiv

Tropical Vorticity Forcing and Superrotation in the Spherical Shallow Water Equations

The response of the nonlinear shallow water equations (SWE) on a sphere to tropical vorticity forcing is examined with an emphasis on momentum fluxes and the emergence of a superrotating (SR) state. Fixing the radiative damping and momentum drag timescales to be of the order of a few days, a state of SR is shown to emerge under steady large-scale and random small-scale vorticity forcing. In the first example, the stationary response to a pair of equal and oppositely signed vortices placed on the equator is considered. Here, the equatorial flux budget is dominated by the eddy fluxes and these drive the system into a state of SR. Eventually, the flux associated with the momentum drag increases to balance the eddy fluxes, resulting in a steady state with a SR jet at the equator. The initial value problem with these twin vortices also exhibits SR driven by eddy fluxes. Curiously, this transient solution spontaneously propagates westward and continually circumnavigates the globe. It is worth emphasizing that this SR state does not rely on any particular form of dissipation at large scales, and is in fact observed even in the absence of any large-scale damping mechanism. In the second ex

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