Regrets, learning and wisdom
This contribution discusses in what respect Econophysics may be able to contribute to the rebuilding of economics theory. It focuses on aggregation, individual vs collective learning and functional wisdom of the crowds.
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Papers in this area
24 paper(s) to start with
Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China
This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw & Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow) tax reduces the housing price fluctuations caused by interest rate or population growth shocks. Simulation results imply that the choice of housing tax tools depends on the kind of shock that housing market faces. In the situation where the housing price volatility is caused by the population growth shock, the flow tax can reduce the volatility of housing price while the stock tax makes no difference to it. If the shock is resulting from the interest rate, the policy maker should not impose any kind of the housing taxes. Furthermore, the effect of one kind of the housing tax can be strengthened by that of the other type of housing tax.
Rating evaluation of sports development efficiency using statistical analysis: evidence from Russian football
Increasing investments into various dimensions of sports draw a significant amount of attention to the way these resources are being managed and which organizations achieve development goals with higher efficiency. This paper reviews the methodology of designing an efficiency rating model for assessing sports entities, focusing on the experience of Russian football. The Russian Regional Efficiency of Football Development model aims to evaluate the regional federations of the Football Union of Russian via 5 dimensions. The scoring method of the model is based on the three-sigma rule of distribution. Support factors in the form of population density and climate were also included, since Russian regions significantly differentiate in these aspects. The findings of this paper showcased that not a single region was able to achieve a maximum 5- star rating, while regions set to host the 2018 FIFA World Cup did not score better compared to others. In conclusion the authors provide various suggestions on further developing and implementing rating models within global sports organizations.
Self-organization in a distributed coordination game through heuristic rules
In this paper we consider a distributed coordination game played by a large number of agents with finite information sets, which characterizes emergence of a single dominant attribute out of a large number of competitors. Formally, $N$ agents play a coordination game repeatedly which has exactly $N$ Nash equilibria and all of the equilibria are equally preferred by the agents. The problem is to select one equilibrium out of $N$ possible equilibria in the least number of attempts. We propose a number of heuristic rules based on reinforcement learning to solve the coordination problem. We see that the agents self-organize into clusters with varying intensities depending on the heuristic rule applied although all clusters but one are transitory in most cases. Finally, we characterize a trade-off in terms of the time requirement to achieve a degree of stability in strategies and the efficiency of such a solution.
Descending Price Optimally Coordinates Search
Investigating potential purchases is often a substantial investment under uncertainty. Standard market designs, such as simultaneous or English auctions, compound this with uncertainty about the price a bidder will have to pay in order to win. As a result they tend to confuse the process of search both by leading to wasteful information acquisition on goods that have already found a good purchaser and by discouraging needed investigations of objects, potentially eliminating all gains from trade. In contrast, we show that the Dutch auction preserves all of its properties from a standard setting without information costs because it guarantees, at the time of information acquisition, a price at which the good can be purchased. Calibrations to start-up acquisition and timber auctions suggest that in practice the social losses through poor search coordination in standard formats are an order of magnitude or two larger than the (negligible) inefficiencies arising from ex-ante bidder asymmetries.
Panel dataset description for econometric analysis of the ISP-OTT relationship in the years 2008-2013
The latest technological advancements in the telecommunications domain (e.g., widespread adoption of mobile devices, introduction of 5G wireless communications, etc.) have brought new stakeholders into the spotlight. More specifically, Over-the-Top (OTT) providers have recently appeared, offering their services over the existing deployed telecommunication networks. The entry of the new players has changed the dynamics in the domain, as it creates conflicting situations with the Internet Service Providers (ISPs), who traditionally dominate the area, motivating the necessity for novel analytical studies for this relationship. However, despite the importance of accessing real observational data, there is no database with the aggregate information that can serve as a solid base for this research. To that end, this document provides a detailed summary report for financial and statistic data for the period 2008-2013 that can be exploited for realistic econometric models that will provide useful insights on this topic. The document summarizes data from various sources with regard to the ISP revenues and Capital Expenditures (CAPEX), the OTT revenues, the Internet penetration and the Gross
The Opium for the Poor Is Opium. Medicare Providers in States with Low Income Prescribe High Levels of Opiates
The majority of Medicare opioid prescriptions originate with family practice and internal medicine providers. I show that the average number of Medicare opium prescriptions by these providers vary strongly by state and that 54% of the variance is accounted for by the state median household income. I also show that there is a very similar relationship in opioid claims per capita and per Medicare recipient. In all cases Alabama is the state with the most claims and Hawaii is the state with the least claims.
The Coconut Model with Heterogeneous Strategies and Learning
In this paper, we develop an agent-based version of the Diamond search equilibrium model - also called Coconut Model. In this model, agents are faced with production decisions that have to be evaluated based on their expectations about the future utility of the produced entity which in turn depends on the global production level via a trading mechanism. While the original dynamical systems formulation assumes an infinite number of homogeneously adapting agents obeying strong rationality conditions, the agent-based setting allows to discuss the effects of heterogeneous and adaptive expectations and enables the analysis of non-equilibrium trajectories. Starting from a baseline implementation that matches the asymptotic behavior of the original model, we show how agent heterogeneity can be accounted for in the aggregate dynamical equations. We then show that when agents adapt their strategies by a simple temporal difference learning scheme, the system converges to one of the fixed points of the original system. Systematic simulations reveal that this is the only stable equilibrium solution.
Measuring and Analyzing the Shares of Economic Growth Sources in the Mining Sector of Iran: A Neoclassical Growth Accounting Approach
The purpose of this study is to measure the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth and determine the share of each of the economic growth sources in the mining sector of Iran. The time period of this study is 1355-1385 of the Solar Hijri calendar (roughly overlaying with the time period of 1976-2006 of the Gregorian calendar). In this paper, the shares of total factor productivity growth (TFPG) and factors' accumulations in the economic growth of the mining sector are estimated using a neoclassical growth accounting approach. Based on the estimated restricted Cobb-Douglas production function and the results obtained from the Solow residual equation, the annual growth rates of TFP were measured for each year. According to the findings, the average annual growth rate of TFP has been 2.94% during the time period of the present study. The other findings of this study indicate that the average contributions of TFPG, labor accumulation and capital accumulation in the economic growth of the mining sector have been 56%, 23%, and 21%, respectively, during the time period of the study. As such, it can be concluded that the policy of benefiting from available factors in the mining sector
Choquet integral in decision analysis - lessons from the axiomatization
The Choquet integral is a powerful aggregation operator which lists many well-known models as its special cases. We look at these special cases and provide their axiomatic analysis. In cases where an axiomatization has been previously given in the literature, we connect the existing results with the framework that we have developed. Next we turn to the question of learning, which is especially important for the practical applications of the model. So far, learning of the Choquet integral has been mostly confined to the learning of the capacity. Such an approach requires making a powerful assumption that all dimensions (e.g. criteria) are evaluated on the same scale, which is rarely justified in practice. Too often categorical data is given arbitrary numerical labels (e.g. AHP), and numerical data is considered cardinally and ordinally commensurate, sometimes after a simple normalization. Such approaches clearly lack scientific rigour, and yet they are commonly seen in all kinds of applications. We discuss the pros and cons of making such an assumption and look at the consequences which axiomatization uniqueness results have for the learning problems. Finally, we review some of the
Microscopic Models for Welfare Measures Addressing a Reduction of Economic Inequality
We formulate a flexible micro-to-macro kinetic model which is able to explain the emergence of income profiles out of a whole of individual economic interactions. The model is expressed by a system of several nonlinear differential equations which involve parameters defined by probabilities. Society is described as an ensemble of individuals divided into income classes; the individuals exchange money through binary and ternary interactions, leaving the total wealth unchanged. The ternary interactions represent taxation and redistribution effects. Dynamics is investigated through computational simulations, the focus being on the effects that different fiscal policies and differently weighted welfare policies have on the long-run income distributions. The model provides a tool which may contribute to the identification of the most effective actions towards a reduction of economic inequality. We find for instance that, under certain hypotheses, the Gini index is more affected by a policy of reduction of the welfare and subsidies for the rich classes than by an increase of the upper tax rate. Such a policy also has the effect of slightly increasing the total tax revenue.
The 2015-2017 policy changes to the means-tests of Australian Age Pension: implication to decisions in retirement
The Australian Government uses the means-test as a way of managing the pension budget. Changes in Age Pension policy impose difficulties in retirement modelling due to policy risk, but any major changes tend to be `grandfathered' meaning that current retirees are exempt from the new changes. In 2015, two important changes were made in regards to allocated pension accounts -- the income means-test is now based on deemed income rather than account withdrawals, and the income-test deduction no longer applies. We examine the implications of the new changes in regards to optimal decisions for consumption, investment, and housing. We account for regulatory minimum withdrawal rules that are imposed by regulations on allocated pension accounts, as well as the 2017 asset-test rebalancing. The new policy changes are modelled in a utility maximizing lifecycle model and solved as an optimal stochastic control problem. We find that the new rules decrease the benefits from planning the consumption in relation to the means-test, while the housing allocation increases slightly in order to receive additional Age Pension. The difference in optimal drawdown between the old and new policy are only
How log-normal is your country? An analysis of the statistical distribution of the exported volumes of products
We have considered the statistical distributions of the volumes of the different products exported by 148 countries. We have found that the form of these distributions is not unique but heavily depends on the level of development of the nation, as expressed by macroeconomic indicators like GDP, GDP per capita, total export and a recently introduced measure for countries' economic complexity called fitness. We have identified three major classes: a) an incomplete log-normal shape, truncated on the left side, for the less developed countries, b) a complete log-normal, with a wider range of volumes, for nations characterized by intermediate economy, and c) a strongly asymmetric shape for countries with a high degree of development. The ranking curves of the exported volumes from each country seldom cross each other, showing a clear hierarchy of export volumes. Finally, the log-normality hypothesis has been checked for the distributions of all the 148 countries through different tests, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramer-Von Mises, confirming that it cannot be rejected only for the countries of intermediate economy.
The Impact of Services on Economic Complexity: Service Sophistication as Route for Economic Growth
Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. By combining tools from network science and econometrics, a robust and stable relationship between a country's productive structure and its economic growth has been established. Here we report that not only goods but also services are important for predicting the rate at which countries will grow. By adopting a terminology which classifies manufactured goods and delivered services as products, we investigate the influence of services on the country's productive structure. In particular, we provide evidence that complexity indices for services are in general higher than those for goods, which is reflected in a general tendency to rank countries with developed service sector higher than countries with economy centred on manufacturing of goods. By focusing on country dynamics based on experimental data, we investigate the impact of services on the economic complexity of countries measured in the product space (consisting of both goods and services). Importantly, we show that diversification of service exports and its sophistication can provide an additional route fo
Naive Diversification Preferences and their Representation
A widely applied diversification paradigm is the naive diversification choice heuristic. It stipulates that an economic agent allocates equal decision weights to given choice alternatives independent of their individual characteristics. This article provides mathematically and economically sound choice theoretic foundations for the naive approach to diversification. We axiomatize naive diversification by defining it as a preference for equality over inequality and derive its relationship to the classical diversification paradigm. In particular, we show that (i) the notion of permutation invariance lies at the core of naive diversification and that an economic agent is a naive diversifier if and only if his preferences are convex and permutation invariant; (ii) Schur-concave utility functions capture the idea of being inequality averse on top of being risk averse; and (iii) the transformations, which rebalance unequal decision weights to equality, are characterized in terms of their implied turnover.
The missing assets and the size of Shadow Banking: an update
In a recent paper, using data from Forbes Global 2000, we have observed that the upper tail of the firm size distribution (by assets) falls off much faster than a Pareto distribution. The missing mass was suggested as an indicator of the size of the Shadow Banking (SB) sector. This short note provides the latest figures of the missing assets for 2013, 2014 and 2015. In 2013 and 2014 the dynamics of the missing assets continued being strongly correlated with estimates of the size of the SB sector of the Financial Stability Board. In 2015 we find a sharp decrease in the size of missing assets, suggesting that the SB sector is deflating.
A fair monetization model to reconcile authors and consumers of intellectual property
In this small article one compromise monetization strategy is proposed, which hopefully may lead to a more satisfactory coexistence of IP manufacturers and consumers. The motto is "fair exchange": you use our IP-product, we use your product (in form of money); when you do not need our product any more, we change back.
EM Algorithm and Stochastic Control in Economics
Generalising the idea of the classical EM algorithm that is widely used for computing maximum likelihood estimates, we propose an EM-Control (EM-C) algorithm for solving multi-period finite time horizon stochastic control problems. The new algorithm sequentially updates the control policies in each time period using Monte Carlo simulation in a forward-backward manner; in other words, the algorithm goes forward in simulation and backward in optimization in each iteration. Similar to the EM algorithm, the EM-C algorithm has the monotonicity of performance improvement in each iteration, leading to good convergence properties. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm by solving stochastic control problems in the monopoly pricing of perishable assets and in the study of real business cycle.
An Equilibrium Model with Computationally Constrained Agents
We study a large economy in which firms cannot compute exact solutions to the non-linear equations that characterize the equilibrium price at which they can sell future output. Instead, firms use polynomial expansions to approximate prices. The precision with which they can compute prices is endogenous and depends on the overall level of supply. At the same time, firms' individual supplies, and thus aggregate supply, depend on the precision with which they approximate prices. This interrelation between supply and price forecast induces multiple equilibria, with inefficiently low output, in economies that otherwise have a unique, efficient equilibrium. Moreover, exogenous parameter changes, which would increase output were there no computational frictions, can diminish agents' ability to approximate future prices, and reduce output. Our model therefore accommodates the intuition that interventions, such as unprecedented quantitative easing, can put agents into "uncharted territory".
Revealing the Anatomy of Vote Trading
Cooperation in the form of vote trading, also known as logrolling, is central for law-making processes, shaping the development of democratic societies. Empirical evidence of logrolling is scarce and limited to highly specific situations because existing methods are not easily applicable to broader contexts. We have developed a general and scalable methodology for revealing a network of vote traders, allowing us to measure logrolling on a large scale. Analysis on more than 9 million votes spanning 40 years in the U.S. Congress reveals a higher logrolling prevalence in the Senate and an overall decreasing trend over recent congresses, coincidental with high levels of political polarization. Our method is applicable in multiple contexts, shedding light on many aspects of logrolling and opening new doors in the study of hidden cooperation.
Globalization Process in Emerging Capital Markets -- Lessons and Implications to China
Since 2002 when China first introduced QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors) system, QFII has been developing in China for 14 years, during when RQFII, Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect Program, Shanghai-London Stock Connect Program furthur broadened the avenue for foreign capital to invest in Chinese Security Market. As FTA (Free Trade Area) Financial Reform Program emerged, RMB (CNY) Capital Project is likely to make the currency exchangeable. With the success in QFII, RQFII and Shanghai-Hongkong Stock Connect Program, China's long term advantage in interest rate, and the relatively low stock index value after the recent stock market crashes in mid 2015 and early 2016, foreign capitals' demand for Chinese market to loosen its restrictions continually increases. This article picks the three most representative emerging capital markets in the world, namely Taiwan, Korea and India, by comparing and analyzing their paths of globalization, attempts to shed light on China's next steps regarding globalization.
Economic inequality and mobility in kinetic models for social sciences
Statistical evaluations of the economic mobility of a society are more difficult than measurements of the income distribution, because they require to follow the evolution of the individuals' income for at least one or two generations. In micro-to-macro theoretical models of economic exchanges based on kinetic equations, the income distribution depends only on the asymptotic equilibrium solutions, while mobility estimates also involve the detailed structure of the transition probabilities of the model, and are thus an important tool for assessing its validity. Empirical data show a remarkably general negative correlation between economic inequality and mobility, whose explanation is still unclear. It is therefore particularly interesting to study this correlation in analytical models. In previous work we investigated the behavior of the Gini inequality index in kinetic models in dependence on several parameters which define the binary interactions and the taxation and redistribution processes: saving propensity, taxation rates gap, tax evasion rate, welfare means-testing etc. Here, we check the correlation of mobility with inequality by analyzing the mobility dependence from th
Moral hazard under ambiguity
In this paper, we extend the Holmstroöm and Milgrom problem [47] by adding uncertainty about the volatility of the output for both the Agent and the Principal. We study more precisely the impact of the "Nature" playing against the Agent and the Principal by choosing the worst possible volatility of the output. We solve the first--best and the second--best problems associated with this framework and we show that optimal contracts are in a class of contracts similar to [14, 15], linear with respect to the output and its quadratic variation. We compare our results with the classical problem in [47].
Centrality measures in networks based on nodes attributes, long-range interactions and group influence
We propose a new method for assessing agents influence in network structures, which takes into consideration nodes attributes, individual and group influences of nodes, and the intensity of interactions. This approach helps us to identify both explicit and hidden central elements which cannot be detected by classical centrality measures or other indices.
People in this topic
12 visible researcher(s)
Mihaela van der Schaar
Researcher
Mihaela van der Schaar contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateJian Yang
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Jian Yang contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateDidier Sornette
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Didier Sornette contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateJean-Philippe Bouchaud
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Jean-Philippe Bouchaud contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateWei-Xing Zhou
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Wei-Xing Zhou contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateLuca Amendola
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Luca Amendola contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateJohn Lygeros
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John Lygeros contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateMarcel Ausloos
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Marcel Ausloos contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateKazunari Shibata
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Kazunari Shibata contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateTiziana Di Matteo
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Tiziana Di Matteo contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateFrank Schweitzer
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Frank Schweitzer contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborateSascha Kurz
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Sascha Kurz contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.
Open to collaborate