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preprint2025arXiv

Does Peer-Reviewed Research Help Predict Stock Returns?

Mining 29,000 accounting ratios for t-statistics $> 2.0$ leads to cross-sectional return predictability similar to the peer review process. For both, $\approx50\%$ of predictability remains after the original sample periods. This finding holds for many categories of research, including research with risk or equilibrium foundations. Only research agnostic about the theoretical explanation for predictability shows signs of outperformance. Our results imply that inferences about post-sample performance depend little on whether the predictor is peer-reviewed or data mined. They also have implications for the importance of empirical vs theoretical evidence, investors' learning from academic research, and the effectiveness of data mining.

preprint2025arXiv

A Test of Lookahead Bias in LLM Forecasts

We develop a statistical test to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using state-of-the-art pre-training data detection techniques, we estimate the likelihood that a given prompt appeared in an LLM's training corpus, a statistic we term Lookahead Propensity (LAP). We formally show that a positive correlation between LAP and forecast accuracy indicates the presence and magnitude of lookahead bias, and apply the test to two forecasting tasks: news headlines predicting stock returns and earnings call transcripts predicting capital expenditures. Our test provides a cost-efficient, diagnostic tool for assessing the validity and reliability of LLM-generated forecasts.

preprint2026arXiv

Foresight Arena: An On-Chain Benchmark for Evaluating AI Forecasting Agents

Evaluating the true forecasting ability of AI agents requires environments that are resistant to environments resistant to overfitting, free from centralized trust, and grounded in incentive-compatible scoring. Existing benchmarks either rely on static datasets vulnerable to training-data contamination, or measure trading PnL -- a metric conflating predictive accuracy with timing, sizing, and risk appetite. We introduce Foresight Arena, the first permissionless, on-chain benchmark for evaluating AI forecasting agents on real-world prediction markets. Agents submit probabilistic forecasts on binary Polymarket markets via a commit-reveal protocol enforced by Solidity smart contracts on Polygon PoS; outcomes are resolved trustlessly through the Gnosis Conditional Token Framework. Performance is measured by the Brier Score and a novel Alpha Score -- proper scoring rules that incentivize honest probability reporting and isolate predictive edge over market consensus. We provide a formal analysis: closed-form variance for per-market Alpha, the connection to Murphy's classical Brier decomposition, and a power analysis characterizing the number of rounds required to reliably distinguish agents of different skill levels. We show that detecting a true edge of $α^* = 0.02$ at 80% power requires approximately 350 resolved binary predictions (50 rounds of 7 markets), while $α^* = 0.01$ requires four times more. We complement these analytical results with a deterministic, seed-controlled simulation study calibrated to literature-reported Brier-score ranges, illustrating how Murphy decomposition distinguishes well-calibrated agents from market-tracking agents that fail through reduced resolution. Live results from the deployed benchmark will be reported in a future revision. All smart contracts and evaluation infrastructure are open-source.

preprint2026arXiv

Beyond Sentiment Classification: A Generative Framework for Emotion Intensity Evaluation in Text

We introduce a novel approach to emotion modeling that shifts the focus from identification to evaluation, addressing the limitations of discrete classification in applied domains such as finance. By constructing a dataset of emotional intensity scores and fine-tuning open-weight generative language models to output continuous values from 0-100, we demonstrate a more expressive, generalizable framework for sentiment and emotion analysis. Our findings not only outperform classification baselines but also reveal surprising generalization capabilities and transfer effects to related constructs such as sentiment and arousal. This work contributes to the interdisciplinary recontextualization of NLP by introducing emotion intensity evaluation as an alternative to classification, arguing that this shift better aligns with the needs of domains--such as finance--where the degree of emotional content is central to interpretation and decision-making.

preprint2024arXiv

Displaying risk in mergers: a diagrammatic approach for exchange ratio determination

This article extends, in a stochastic setting, previous results in the determination of feasible exchange ratios for merging companies. A first outcome is that shareholders of the companies involved in the merging process face both an upper and a lower bounds for acceptable exchange ratios. Secondly, in order for the improved `bargaining region' to be intelligibly displayed, the diagrammatic approach developed by Kulpa is exploited.

preprint2022arXiv

Does DeFi remove the need for trust? Evidence from a natural experiment in stablecoin lending

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is built on a fundamentally different paradigm: rather than having to trust individuals and institutions, participants in DeFi potentially only have to trust computer code that is enforced by a decentralized network of computers. We examine a natural experiment that exogenously stress tests this alternative paradigm by revealing the identities of individuals associated with a DeFi protocol, including a convicted criminal. We find that, in practice, DeFi does not (yet) fully remove the need for trust in individuals. Our findings suggest that that because smart contracts are incomplete, they are subject to run risk (Allen and Gale, 2004) and personal character and trust of individuals are still relevant in this alternative financial system.

preprint2022arXiv

Mortality in Germany during the Covid-19 pandemic

The Covid-19 pandemic still causes severe impacts on society and the economy. This paper studies excess mortality during the pandemic years 2020 and 2021 in Germany empirically with a special focus on the life insurer's perspective. Our conclusions are based on official counts of German governmental offices on the living and deaths of the entire population. Conclusions, relevant for actuaries and specific insurance business lines, including portfolios of pension, life, and health insurance contracts, are provided.

preprint2022arXiv

Russia's Ruble during the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022: The role of implied volatility and attention

The onset of the Russo-Ukrainian crisis has led to the rapid depreciation of the Russian ruble. In this study, we model intraday price fluctuations of the USD/RUB and the EUR/RUB exchange rates from the $1^{st}$ of December 2021 to the $7^{th}$ of March 2022. Our approach is novel in that instead of using daily (low-frequency) measures of attention and investor's expectations, we use intraday (high-frequency) data: google searches and implied volatility to proxy investor's attention and expectations. We show that both approaches are useful in predicting intraday price fluctuations of the two exchange rates, although implied volatility encompasses intraday attention.

preprint2022arXiv

Is Metaverse LAND a good investment? It depends on your unit of account!

The Sandbox metaverse LAND non-fungible token (NFT) prices increased by than 300 times (in USD) between December 2019 and January 2022, but when measured in its native utility token (SAND), the increase is only 3 times. Depending on how prices are denominated, investment returns and effective transaction prices vary. We analyze more than 71,000 transactions and find that users are willing to pay 3-4% more when transactions are settled in SAND, and 30% less when settled in wETH (a smart contract version of ETH) when compared to ETH, so unit of account matters. Our results contribute to the discussions of blockchain-based, virtual economy management and the digitalization of money (Brunnermeier et al., 2019).

preprint2023arXiv

Design and analysis of momentum trading strategies

We give a complete description of the third-moment (skewness) characteristics of both linear and nonlinear momentum trading strategies, the latter being understood as transformations of a normalised moving-average filter (EMA). We explain in detail why the skewness is generally positive and has a term structure. This paper is a synthesis of two papers published by the author in RISK in 2012, with some updates and comments.

preprint2023arXiv

Adversarial AI in Insurance: Pervasiveness and Resilience

The rapid and dynamic pace of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) is revolutionizing the insurance sector. AI offers significant, very much welcome advantages to insurance companies, and is fundamental to their customer-centricity strategy. It also poses challenges, in the project and implementation phase. Among those, we study Adversarial Attacks, which consist of the creation of modified input data to deceive an AI system and produce false outputs. We provide examples of attacks on insurance AI applications, categorize them, and argue on defence methods and precautionary systems, considering that they can involve few-shot and zero-shot multilabelling. A related topic, with growing interest, is the validation and verification of systems incorporating AI and ML components. These topics are discussed in various sections of this paper.

preprint2022arXiv

Digging into Primary Financial Market: Challenges and Opportunities of Adopting Blockchain

Since the emergence of blockchain technology, its application in the financial market has always been an area of focus and exploration by all parties. With the characteristics of anonymity, trust, tamper-proof, etc., blockchain technology can effectively solve some problems faced by the financial market, such as trust issues and information asymmetry issues. To deeply understand the application scenarios of blockchain in the financial market, the issue of securities issuance and trading in the primary market is a problem that must be studied clearly. We conducted an empirical study to investigate the main difficulties faced by primary market participants in their business practices and the potential challenges of the deepening application of blockchain technology in the primary market. We adopted a hybrid method combining interviews (qualitative methods) and surveys (quantitative methods) to conduct this research in two stages. In the first stage, we interview 15 major primary market participants with different backgrounds and expertise. In the second phase, we conducted a verification survey of 54 primary market practitioners to confirm various insights from the interviews, including challenges and desired improvements. Our interviews and survey results revealed several significant challenges facing blockchain applications in the primary market: complex due diligence, mismatch, and difficult monitoring. On this basis, we believe that our future research can focus on some aspects of these challenges.

preprint2023arXiv

Coulomb-like Model for International Trade Flow and Derivation of Distribution Function for Trade Flow Strength

To describe international trade flows, we propose the coulomb force formulation, in which the magnitude of the charge represents gross domestic product (GDP) and the distance between countries is the bilateral distance, the product of spatial distance and "dielectric constant," rather than the spatial distance as used in the gravitation model, allowing it to be time dependent. The "dielectric constant" is influenced by factors such as warfare, transportation disruptions, trade agreements, social, geography, politics, culture, and others. The GDP and distance power parameters were estimated using data from high-GDP countries' export-import transactions. We also developed a trade strength distribution equation that fits World Bank data reasonably well over a decade.

preprint2022arXiv

Stability of shares in the Proof of Stake Protocol -- Concentration and Phase Transitions

This paper is concerned with the stability of shares in a cryptocurrency where the new coins are issued according to the Proof of Stake protocol. We identify large, medium and small investors under various rewarding schemes, and show that the limiting behaviors of these investors are different -- for large investors their shares are stable, while for medium to small investors their shares may be volatile or even shrink to zero. For instance, with a geometric reward there is chaotic centralization, where all the shares will eventually concentrate on one investor in a random manner. This leads to the phase transition phenomenon, and the thresholds for stability are characterized. In response to the increasing activities in blockchain networks, we also propose and analyze a dynamical population model for the PoS protocol, which allows the number of investors to grow over the time. Numerical experiments are provided to corroborate our theory.

preprint2023arXiv

On the Past, Present, and Future of the Diebold-Yilmaz Approach to Dynamic Network Connectedness

We offer retrospective and prospective assessments of the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness research program, combined with personal recollections of its development. Its centerpiece in many respects is Diebold and Yilmaz (2014), around which our discussion is organized.

preprint2022arXiv

DDG-DA: Data Distribution Generation for Predictable Concept Drift Adaptation

In many real-world scenarios, we often deal with streaming data that is sequentially collected over time. Due to the non-stationary nature of the environment, the streaming data distribution may change in unpredictable ways, which is known as concept drift. To handle concept drift, previous methods first detect when/where the concept drift happens and then adapt models to fit the distribution of the latest data. However, there are still many cases that some underlying factors of environment evolution are predictable, making it possible to model the future concept drift trend of the streaming data, while such cases are not fully explored in previous work. In this paper, we propose a novel method DDG-DA, that can effectively forecast the evolution of data distribution and improve the performance of models. Specifically, we first train a predictor to estimate the future data distribution, then leverage it to generate training samples, and finally train models on the generated data. We conduct experiments on three real-world tasks (forecasting on stock price trend, electricity load and solar irradiance) and obtain significant improvement on multiple widely-used models.

preprint2022arXiv

Do new investment strategies take existing strategies' returns -- An investigation into agent-based models

Commodity trading advisors (CTAs), who mainly trade commodity futures, showed good returns in the 2000s. However, since the 2010's, they have not performed very well. One possible reason of this phenomenon is the emergence of short-term reversal traders (STRTs) who prey on CTAs for profit. In this study, I built an artificial market model by adding a CTA agent (CTAA) and STRT agent (STRTA) to a prior model and investigated whether emerging STRTAs led to a decrease in CTAA revenue to determine whether STRTs prey on CTAs for profit. To the contrary, my results showed that a CTAA and STRTA are more likely to trade and earn more when both exist. Therefore, it is possible that they have a mutually beneficial relationship.

preprint2022arXiv

Decentralized Payment Clearing using Blockchain and Optimal Bidding

In this paper, we construct a decentralized clearing mechanism which endogenously and automatically provides a claims resolution procedure. This mechanism can be used to clear a network of obligations through blockchain. In particular, we investigate default contagion in a network of smart contracts cleared through blockchain. In so doing, we provide an algorithm which constructs the blockchain so as to guarantee the payments can be verified and the miners earn a fee. We, additionally, consider the special case in which the blocks have unbounded capacity to provide a simple equilibrium clearing condition for the terminal net worths; existence and uniqueness are proven for this system. Finally, we consider the optimal bidding strategies for each firm in the network so that all firms are utility maximizers with respect to their terminal wealths. We first look for a mixed Nash equilibrium bidding strategies, and then also consider Pareto optimal bidding strategies. The implications of these strategies, and more broadly blockchain, on systemic risk are considered.

preprint2022arXiv

Can Volatility Solve the Naive Portfolio Puzzle?

We investigate whether sophisticated volatility estimation improves the out-of-sample performance of mean-variance portfolio strategies relative to the naive 1/N strategy. The portfolio strategies rely solely upon second moments. Using a diverse group of econometric and portfolio models across multiple datasets, most models achieve higher Sharpe ratios and lower portfolio volatility that are statistically and economically significant relative to the naive rule, even after controlling for turnover costs. Our results suggest benefits to employing more sophisticated econometric models than the sample covariance matrix, and that mean-variance strategies often outperform the naive portfolio across multiple datasets and assessment criteria.

preprint2022arXiv

The Evolution of Blockchain: from Lit to Dark

Transactions submitted through the blockchain peer-to-peer (P2P) network may leak out exploitable information. We study the economic incentives behind the adoption of blockchain dark venues, where users' transactions are observable only by miners on these venues. We show that miners may not fully adopt dark venues to preserve rents extracted from arbitrageurs, hence creating execution risk for users. The dark venue neither eliminates frontrunning risk nor reduces transaction costs. It strictly increases the payoff of miners, weakly increases the payoff of users, and weakly reduces arbitrageurs' profits. We provide empirical support for our main implications, and show that they are economically significant. A 1% increase in the probability of being frontrun raises users' adoption rate of the dark venue by 0.6%. Arbitrageurs' cost-to-revenue ratio increases by a third with a dark venue.

preprint2022arXiv

Equilibrium Defaultable Corporate Debt and Investment

In dynamic capital structure models with an investor break-even condition, the firm's Bellman equation may not generate a contraction mapping, so the standard existence and uniqueness conditions do not apply. First, we provide an example showing the problem in a classical trade-off model. The firm can issue one-period defaultable debt, invest in capital and pay a dividend. If the firm cannot meet the required debt payment, it is liquidated. Second, we show how to use a dual to the original problem and a change of measure, such that existence and uniqueness can be proved. In the unique Markov-perfect equilibrium, firm decisions reflect state-dependent capital and debt targets. Our approach may be useful for other dynamic firm models that have an investor break-even condition.

preprint2022arXiv

The Evolution of Investor Activism in Japan

Activist investors have gradually become a catalyst for change in Japanese companies. This study examines the impact of activist board representation on firm performance in Japan. I focus on the only two Japanese companies with activist board representation: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. ("Kawasaki") and Olympus Corporation ("Olympus"). Overall, I document significant benefits from the decision to engage with activists at these companies. The target companies experience greater short- and long-term abnormal stock returns following the activist engagement. Moreover, I show operational improvements as measured by return on assets and return on equity. Activist board members also associate with important changes in payout policy that help explain the positive stock returns. My findings support the notion that Japanese companies should consider engagements with activist investors to transform and improve their businesses. Such interactions can lead to innovative and forward-thinking policies that create value for Japanese businesses and their stakeholders.

preprint2022arXiv

Instability of financial markets by optimizing investment strategies investigated by an agent-based model

Most finance studies are discussed on the basis of several hypotheses, for example, investors rationally optimize their investment strategies. However, the hypotheses themselves are sometimes criticized. Market impacts, where trades of investors can impact and change market prices, making optimization impossible. In this study, we built an artificial market model by adding technical analysis strategy agents searching one optimized parameter to a whole simulation run to the prior model and investigated whether investors' inability to accurately estimate market impacts in their optimizations leads to optimization instability. In our results, the parameter of investment strategy never converged to a specific value but continued to change. This means that even if all other traders are fixed, only one investor will use backtesting to optimize his/her strategy, which leads to the time evolution of market prices becoming unstable. Optimization instability is one level higher than "non-equilibrium of market prices." Therefore, the time evolution of market prices produced by investment strategies having such unstable parameters is highly unlikely to be predicted and have stable laws written by equations. This nature makes us suspect that financial markets include the principle of natural uniformity and indicates the difficulty of building an equation model explaining the time evolution of prices.

preprint2021arXiv

Corporate Social Responsibility and Corporate Governance: A cognitive approach

This chapter aims to critically review the existing literature on the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate governance features. Drawn on management and corporate governance theories, we develop a theoretical model that makes explicit the links between board diversity, CSR committees' attributes, CSR and financial performance. Particularly, we show that focusing on the cognitive and demographic characteristics of board members could provide more insights on the link between corporate governance and CSR. We also highlight how the functioning and the composition of CSR committees, could be valuable to better understand the relationship between corporate governance and CSR.