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Nizar Touzi

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Published work

38 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Tweedie's Formulae and Diffusion Generative Models Beyond Gaussian

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating samples from unknown data distributions. Most popular stochastic differential equation-based diffusion models perturb the target distribution by adding Gaussian noise, transforming it into a simple prior, and then use denoising score matching, a consequence of Tweedie's formula, to learn the score function and generate clean samples from noise. However, non-Gaussian diffusion models with state-dependent diffusion coefficient have been largely underexplored, as have the corresponding Tweedie's formulae. In this work, we extend Tweedie's formula to important non-Gaussian processes, including geometric Brownian motion (GBM), squared Bessel (BESQ) processes, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes, thereby yielding the corresponding denoising score-matching objectives. We then apply the derived formulae to image and financial time series generation using GBM- and CIR-based diffusion models, and to empirical Bayes estimation under the BESQ setting. The reported experimental results demonstrate the potential of non-Gaussian models.

preprint2023arXiv

Dynamic programming equation for the mean field optimal stopping problem

We study the optimal stopping problem of McKean-Vlasov diffusions when the criterion is a function of the law of the stopped process. A remarkable new feature in this setting is that the stopping time also impacts the dynamics of the stopped process through the dependence of the coefficients on the law. The mean field stopping problem is introduced in weak formulation in terms of the joint marginal law of the stopped underlying process and the survival process. This specification satisfies a dynamic programming principle. The corresponding dynamic programming equation is an obstacle problem on the Wasserstein space, and is obtained by means of a general Itô formula for flows of marginal laws of càdlàg semimartingales. Our verification result characterizes the nature of optimal stopping policies, highlighting the crucial need to randomized stopping. The effectiveness of our dynamic programming equation is illustrated by various examples including the mean-variance optimal stopping problem.

preprint2022arXiv

Mean Field Game of Mutual Holding

We introduce a mean field model for optimal holding of a representative agent of her peers as a natural expected scaling limit from the corresponding $N-$agent model. The induced mean field dynamics appear naturally in a form which is not covered by standard McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations. We study the corresponding mean field game of mutual holding in the absence of common noise. Our first main result provides an explicit equilibrium of this mean field game, defined by a bang--bang control consisting in holding those competitors with positive drift coefficient of their dynamic value. We next use this mean field game equilibrium to construct (approximate) Nash equilibria for the corresponding $N$--player game. We also provide some numerical illustrations of our mean field game equilibrium which highlight some unexpected effects induced by our results.

preprint2022arXiv

Nonlinear predictable representation and $L^1$-solutions of backward SDEs and second-order backward SDEs

The theory of backward SDEs extends the predictable representation property of Brownian motion to the nonlinear framework, thus providing a path-dependent analog of fully nonlinear parabolic PDEs. In this paper, we consider backward SDEs, their reflected version, and their second-order extension, in the context where the final data and the generator satisfy $L^1$-type of integrability condition. Our main objective is to provide the corresponding existence and uniqueness results for general Lipschitz generators. The uniqueness holds in the so-called Doob class of processes, simultaneously under an appropriate class of measures. We emphasize that the previous literature only deals with backward SDEs, and requires either that the generator is separable in $(y,z)$, see Peng [Pen97], or strictly sublinear in the gradient variable $z$, see [BDHPS03], or that the final data satisfies an $L\ln L$-integrability condition, see [HT18]. We by-pass these conditions by defining $L^1$-integrability under the nonlinear expectation operator induced by the previously mentioned class of measures.

preprint2022arXiv

On path-dependent multidimensional forward-backward SDEs

This paper extends the results of Ma, Wu, Zhang, Zhang [11] to the context of path-dependent multidimensional forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE). By path-dependent we mean that the coefficients of the forward-backward SDE at time t can depend on the whole path of the forward process up to time t. Such a situation appears when solving path-dependent stochastic control problems by means of variational calculus. At the heart of our analysis is the construction of a decoupling random field on the path space. We first prove the existence and the uniqueness of decoupling field on small time interval. Then by introducing the characteristic BSDE, we show that a global decoupling field can be constructed by patching local solutions together as long as the solution of the characteristic BSDE remains bounded. Finally, we provide a stability result for path-dependent forward-backward SDEs.

preprint2022arXiv

Random horizon principal-agent problems

We consider a general formulation of the random horizon Principal-Agent problem with a continuous payment and a lump-sum payment at termination. In the European version of the problem, the random horizon is chosen solely by the principal with no other possible action from the agent than exerting effort on the dynamics of the output process. We also consider the American version of the contract, which covers the seminal Sannikov's model, where the agent can also quit by optimally choosing the termination time of the contract. Our main result reduces such non-zero-sum stochastic differential games to appropriate stochastic control problems which may be solved by standard methods of stochastic control theory. This reduction is obtained by following Sannikov's approach, further developed by Cvitanic, Possamai, and Touzi. We first introduce an appropriate class of contracts for which the agent's optimal effort is immediately characterized by the standard verification argument in stochastic control theory. We then show that this class of contracts is dense in an appropriate sense so that the optimization over this restricted family of contracts represents no loss of generality. The result is obtained by using the recent well-posedness result of random horizon second-order backward SDE.

preprint2022arXiv

Second order backward SDE with random terminal time

Backward stochastic differential equations extend the martingale representation theorem to the nonlinear setting. This can be seen as path-dependent counterpart of the extension from the heat equation to fully nonlinear parabolic equations in the Markov setting. This paper extends such a nonlinear representation to the context where the random variable of interest is measurable with respect to the information at a finite stopping time. We provide a complete wellposedness theory which covers the semilinear case (backward SDE), the semilinear case with obstacle (reflected backward SDE), and the fully nonlinear case (second order backward SDE).

preprint2020arXiv

Controlled diffusion Mean Field Games with common noise, and McKean-Vlasov second order backward SDEs

We consider a mean field game with common noise in which the diffusion coefficients may be controlled. We prove existence of a weak relaxed solution under some continuity conditions on the coefficients. We then show that, when there is no common noise, the solution of this mean field game is characterized by a McKean-Vlasov type second order backward SDE.

preprint2016arXiv

Branching diffusion representation of semilinear PDEs and Monte Carlo approximation

We provide a representation result of parabolic semi-linear PD-Es, with polynomial nonlinearity, by branching diffusion processes. We extend the classical representation for KPP equations, introduced by Skorokhod (1964), Watanabe (1965) and McKean (1975), by allowing for polynomial nonlinearity in the pair $(u, Du)$, where $u$ is the solution of the PDE with space gradient $Du$. Similar to the previous literature, our result requires a non-explosion condition which restrict to "small maturity" or "small nonlinearity" of the PDE. Our main ingredient is the automatic differentiation technique as in Henry Labordere, Tan and Touzi (2015), based on the Malliavin integration by parts, which allows to account for the nonlinearities in the gradient. As a consequence, the particles of our branching diffusion are marked by the nature of the nonlinearity. This new representation has very important numerical implications as it is suitable for Monte Carlo simulation. Indeed, this provides the first numerical method for high dimensional nonlinear PDEs with error estimate induced by the dimension-free Central limit theorem. The complexity is also easily seen to be of the order of the squared dimension. The final section of this paper illustrates the efficiency of the algorithm by some high dimensional numerical experiments.

preprint2016arXiv

On the monotonicity principle of optimal Skorokhod embedding problem

In this paper, we provide an alternative proof of the monotonicity principle for the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem established by Beiglböck, Cox and Huesmann. This principle presents a geometric characterization that reflects the desired optimality properties of Skorokhod embeddings. Our proof is based on the adaptation of the Monge-Kantorovich duality in our context together with a delicate application of the optional cross-section theorem and a clever conditioning argument.

preprint2016arXiv

Optimal Skorokhod embedding under finitely-many marginal constraints

The Skorokhod embedding problem aims to represent a given probability measure on the real line as the distribution of Brownian motion stopped at a chosen stopping time. In this paper, we consider an extension of the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem to the case of finitely-many marginal constraints. Using the classical convex duality approach together with the optimal stopping theory, we obtain the duality results which are formulated by means of probability measures on an enlarged space. We also relate these results to the problem of martingale optimal transport under multiple marginal constraints.

preprint2016arXiv

The maximum maximum of a martingale with given $n$ marginals

We obtain bounds on the distribution of the maximum of a martingale with fixed marginals at finitely many intermediate times. The bounds are sharp and attained by a solution to $n$-marginal Skorokhod embedding problem in Obłój and Spoida [An iterated Azéma-Yor type embedding for finitely many marginals (2013) Preprint]. It follows that their embedding maximizes the maximum among all other embeddings. Our motivating problem is superhedging lookback options under volatility uncertainty for an investor allowed to dynamically trade the underlying asset and statically trade European call options for all possible strikes and finitely-many maturities. We derive a pathwise inequality which induces the cheapest superhedging value, which extends the two-marginals pathwise inequality of Brown, Hobson and Rogers [Probab. Theory Related Fields 119 (2001) 558-578]. This inequality, proved by elementary arguments, is derived by following the stochastic control approach of Galichon, Henry-Labordère and Touzi [Ann. Appl. Probab. 24 (2014) 312-336].

preprint2016arXiv

Tightness and duality of martingale transport on the Skorokhod space

The martingale optimal transport aims to optimally transfer a probability measure to another along the class of martingales. This problem is mainly motivated by the robust superhedging of exotic derivatives in financial mathematics, which turns out to be the corresponding Kantorovich dual. In this paper we consider the continuous-time martingale transport on the Skorokhod space of cadlag paths. Similar to the classical setting of optimal transport, we introduce different dual problems and establish the corresponding dualities by a crucial use of the S-topology and the dynamic programming principle.

preprint2016arXiv

Unbiased simulation of stochastic differential equations

We propose an unbiased Monte-Carlo estimator for $\mathbb{E}[g(X_{t_1}, \cdots, X_{t_n})]$, where $X$ is a diffusion process defined by a multi-dimensional stochastic differential equation (SDE). The main idea is to start instead from a well-chosen simulatable SDE whose coefficients are updated at independent exponential times. Such a simulatable process can be viewed as a regime-switching SDE, or as a branching diffusion process with one single living particle at all times. In order to compensate for the change of the coefficients of the SDE, our main representation result relies on the automatic differentiation technique induced by Bismu-Elworthy-Li formula from Malliavin calculus, as exploited by Fournié et al.(1999) for the simulation of the Greeks in financial applications. In particular, this algorithm can be considered as a variation of the (infinite variance) estimator obtained in Bally and Kohatsu-Higa [Section 6.1](2014) as an application of the parametrix method.

preprint2016arXiv

Viscosity solutions of fully nonlinear parabolic path dependent PDEs: Part II

In our previous paper [Ekren, Touzi and Zhang (2015)], we introduced a notion of viscosity solutions for fully nonlinear path-dependent PDEs, extending the semilinear case of Ekren et al. [Ann. Probab. 42 (2014) 204-236], which satisfies a partial comparison result under standard Lipshitz-type assumptions. The main result of this paper provides a full, well-posedness result under an additional assumption, formulated on some partial differential equation, defined locally by freezing the path. Namely, assuming further that such path-frozen standard PDEs satisfy the comparison principle and the Perron approach for existence, we prove that the nonlinear path-dependent PDE has a unique viscosity solution. Uniqueness is implied by a comparison result.

preprint2015arXiv

Comparison of viscosity solutions of fully nonlinear degenerate parabolic Path-dependent PDEs

We prove a comparison result for viscosity solutions of (possibly degenerate) parabolic fully nonlinear path-dependent PDEs. In contrast with the previous result in Ekren, Touzi & Zhang, our conditions are easier to check and allow for the degenerate case, thus including first order path-dependent PDEs. Our argument follows the regularization method as introduced by Jensen, Lions & Souganidis in the corresponding finite-dimensional PDE setting. The present argument significantly simplifies the comparison proof in Ekren, Touzi & Zhang, but requires an $L^p-$type of continuity (with respect to the path) for the viscosity semi-solutions and for the nonlinearity defining the equation.

preprint2015arXiv

Large liquidity expansion of super-hedging costs

We consider a financial market with liquidity cost as in Çetin, Jarrow and Protter [2004], where the supply function $S^ε(s,ν)$ depends on a parameter $ε\geq 0$ with $S^0(s,ν)=s$ corresponding to the perfect liquid situation. Using the PDE characterization of Çetin, Soner and Touzi [2010] of the super-hedging cost of an option written on such a stock, we provide a Taylor expansion of the super-hedging cost in powers of $ε$. In particular, we explicitly compute the first term in the expansion for a European Call option and give bounds for the order of the expansion for a European Digital Option.

preprint2015arXiv

Liquidation of an indivisible asset with independent investment

We provide an extension of the explicit solution of a mixed optimal stopping-optimal stochastic control problem introduced by Henderson and Hobson. The problem examines wether the optimal investment problem on a local martingale financial market is affected by the optimal liquidation of an independent indivisible asset. The indivisible asset process is defined by a homogeneous scalar stochastic differential equation, and the investor's preferences are defined by a general expected utility function. The value function is obtained in explicit form, and we prove the existence of an optimal stopping-investment strategy characterized as the limit of an explicit maximizing strategy. Our approach is based on the standard dynamic programming approach.

preprint2015arXiv

Moral Hazard in Dynamic Risk Management

We consider a contracting problem in which a principal hires an agent to manage a risky project. When the agent chooses volatility components of the output process and the principal observes the output continuously, the principal can compute the quadratic variation of the output, but not the individual components. This leads to moral hazard with respect to the risk choices of the agent. We identify a family of admissible contracts for which the optimal agent's action is explicitly characterized, and, using the recent theory of singular changes of measures for Itô processes, we study how restrictive this family is. In particular, in the special case of the standard Homlström-Milgrom model with fixed volatility, the family includes all possible contracts. We solve the principal-agent problem in the case of CARA preferences, and show that the optimal contract is linear in these factors: the contractible sources of risk, including the output, the quadratic variation of the output and the cross-variations between the output and the contractible risk sources. Thus, like sample Sharpe ratios used in practice, path-dependent contracts naturally arise when there is moral hazard with respect to risk management. In a numerical example, we show that the loss of efficiency can be significant if the principal does not use the quadratic variation component of the optimal contract.

preprint2015arXiv

Optimal Skorokhod embedding given full marginals and Azema-Yor peacocks

We consider the optimal Skorokhod embedding problem (SEP) given full marginals over the time interval $[0,1]$. The problem is related to the study of extremal martingales associated with a peacock ("process increasing in convex order", by Hirsch, Profeta, Roynette and Yor). A general duality result is obtained by convergence techniques. We then study the case where the reward function depends on the maximum of the embedding process, which is the limit of the martingale transport problem studied in Henry-Labordere, Obloj, Spoida and Touzi. Under technical conditions, some explicit characteristics of the solutions to the optimal SEP as well as to its dual problem are obtained. We also discuss the associated martingale inequality.

preprint2014arXiv

An overview of Viscosity Solutions of Path-Dependent PDEs

This paper provides an overview of the recently developed notion of viscosity solutions of path-dependent partial di erential equations. We start by a quick review of the Crandall- Ishii notion of viscosity solutions, so as to motivate the relevance of our de nition in the path-dependent case. We focus on the wellposedness theory of such equations. In partic- ular, we provide a simple presentation of the current existence and uniqueness arguments in the semilinear case. We also review the stability property of this notion of solutions, in- cluding the adaptation of the Barles-Souganidis monotonic scheme approximation method. Our results rely crucially on the theory of optimal stopping under nonlinear expectation. In the dominated case, we provide a self-contained presentation of all required results. The fully nonlinear case is more involved and is addressed in [12].

preprint2014arXiv

Comparison of Viscosity Solutions of Semi-linear Path-Dependent PDEs

This paper provides a probabilistic proof of the comparison result for viscosity solutions of path-dependent semilinear PDEs. We consider the notion of viscosity solutions introduced in \cite{EKTZ} which considers as test functions all those smooth processes which are tangent in mean. When restricted to the Markovian case, this definition induces a larger set of test functions, and reduces to the notion of stochastic viscosity solutions analyzed in \cite{BayraktarSirbu1,BayraktarSirbu2}. Our main result takes advantage of this enlargement of the test functions, and provides an easier proof of comparison. This is most remarkable in the context of the linear path-dependent heat equation. As a key ingredient for our methodology, we introduce a notion of punctual differentiation, similar to the corresponding concept in the standard viscosity solutions \cite{CaffarelliCabre}, and we prove that semimartingales are almost everywhere punctually differentiable. This smoothness result can be viewed as the counterpart of the Aleksandroff smoothness result for convex functions. A similar comparison result was established earlier in \cite{EKTZ}. The result of this paper is more general and, more importantly, the arguments that we develop do not rely on any representation of the solution.

preprint2014arXiv

Large Deviations for Non-Markovian Diffusions and a Path-Dependent Eikonal Equation

This paper provides a large deviation principle for Non-Markovian, Brownian motion driven stochastic differential equations with random coefficients. Similar to Gao and Liu \cite{GL}, this extends the corresponding results collected in Freidlin and Wentzell \cite{FreidlinWentzell}. However, we use a different line of argument, adapting the PDE method of Fleming \cite{Fleming} and Evans and Ishii \cite{EvansIshii} to the path-dependent case, by using backward stochastic differential techniques. Similar to the Markovian case, we obtain a characterization of the action function as the unique bounded solution of a path-dependent version of the Eikonal equation. Finally, we provide an application to the short maturity asymptotics of the implied volatility surface in financial mathematics.

preprint2014arXiv

Martingale Inequalities for the Maximum via Pathwise Arguments

We study a class of martingale inequalities involving the running maximum process. They are derived from pathwise inequalities introduced by Henry_Labordere et al. (2013) and provide an upper bound on the expectation of a function of the running maximum in terms of marginal distributions at n intermediate time points. The class of inequalities is rich and we show that in general no inequality is uniformly sharp - for any two inequalities we specify martingales such that one or the other inequality is sharper. We then use our inequalities to recover Doob's L^p inequalities. For p in (0,1] we obtain new, or refined, inequalities.

preprint2014arXiv

On viscosity solutions of path dependent PDEs

In this paper we propose a notion of viscosity solutions for path dependent semi-linear parabolic PDEs. This can also be viewed as viscosity solutions of non-Markovian backward SDEs, and thus extends the well-known nonlinear Feynman-Kac formula to non-Markovian case. We shall prove the existence, uniqueness, stability and comparison principle for the viscosity solutions. The key ingredient of our approach is a functional Itô calculus recently introduced by Dupire [Functional Itô calculus (2009) Preprint].

preprint2014arXiv

Viscosity Solutions of Fully Nonlinear Parabolic Path Dependent PDEs: Part I

The main objective of this paper and the accompanying one \cite{ETZ2} is to provide a notion of viscosity solutions for fully nonlinear parabolic path-dependent PDEs. Our definition extends our previous work \cite{EKTZ}, focused on the semilinear case, and is crucially based on the nonlinear optimal stopping problem analyzed in \cite{ETZ0}. We prove that our notion of viscosity solutions is consistent with the corresponding notion of classical solutions, and satisfies a stability property and a partial comparison result. The latter is a key step for the wellposedness results established in \cite{ETZ2}. We also show that the value processes of path-dependent stochastic control problems are viscosity solutions of the corresponding path dependent dynamic programming equation.

preprint2013arXiv

A numerical algorithm for a class of BSDEs via branching process

We generalize the algorithm for semi-linear parabolic PDEs in Henry-Labordère (2012) to the non-Markovian case for a class of Backward SDEs (BSDEs). By simulating the branching process, the algorithm does not need any backward regression. To prove that the numerical algorithm converges to the solution of BSDEs, we use the notion of viscosity solution of path dependent PDEs introduced by Ekren, Keller, Touzi and Zhang (2012) and extended in Ekren, Touzi and Zhang (2013).

preprint2013arXiv

An Explicit Martingale Version of Brenier's Theorem

By investigating model-independent bounds for exotic options in financial mathematics, a martingale version of the Monge-Kantorovich mass transport problem was introduced in \cite{BeiglbockHenry LaborderePenkner,GalichonHenry-LabordereTouzi}. In this paper, we extend the one-dimensional Brenier's theorem to the present martingale version. We provide the explicit martingale optimal transference plans for a remarkable class of coupling functions corresponding to the lower and upper bounds. These explicit extremal probability measures coincide with the unique left and right monotone martingale transference plans, which were introduced in \cite{BeiglbockJuillet} by suitable adaptation of the notion of cyclic monotonicity. Instead, our approach relies heavily on the (weak) duality result stated in \cite{BeiglbockHenry-LaborderePenkner}, and provides, as a by-product, an explicit expression for the corresponding optimal semi-static hedging strategies. We finally provide an extension to the multiple marginals case.

preprint2013arXiv

Dual formulation of second order target problems

This paper provides a new formulation of second order stochastic target problems introduced in [SIAM J. Control Optim. 48 (2009) 2344-2365] by modifying the reference probability so as to allow for different scales. This new ingredient enables us to prove a dual formulation of the target problem as the supremum of the solutions of standard backward stochastic differential equations. In particular, in the Markov case, the dual problem is known to be connected to a fully nonlinear, parabolic partial differential equation and this connection can be viewed as a stochastic representation for all nonlinear, scalar, second order, parabolic equations with a convex Hessian dependence.

preprint2013arXiv

Homogenization and asymptotics for small transaction costs

We consider the classical Merton problem of lifetime consumption-portfolio optimization problem with small proportional transaction costs. The first order term in the asymptotic expansion is explicitly calculated through a singular ergodic control problem which can be solved in closed form in the one-dimensional case. Unlike the existing literature, we consider a general utility function and general dynamics for the underlying assets. Our arguments are based on ideas from the homogenization theory and use the convergence tools from the theory of viscosity solutions. The multidimensional case is studied in our accompanying paper using the same approach.

preprint2013arXiv

Homogenization and asymptotics for small transaction costs: the multidimensional case

In the context of the multi-dimensional infinite horizon optimal consumption-investment problem with proportional transaction costs, we provide the first order expansion in small transact costs. Similar to the one-dimensional derivation in our accompanying paper [42], the asymptotic expansion is expressed in terms of a singular ergodic control problem, and our arguments are based on the theory of viscosity solutions, and the techniques of homogenization which leads to a system of corrector equations. In contrast with the one-dimensional case, no explicit solution of the first corrector equation is available anymore. Finally, we provide some numerical results which illustrate the structure of the first order optimal controls.

preprint2013arXiv

Optimal Stopping under Nonlinear Expectation

Let $X$ be a bounded càdlàg process with positive jumps defined on the canonical space of continuous paths. We consider the problem of optimal stopping the process $X$ under a nonlinear expectation operator $\cE$ defined as the supremum of expectations over a weakly compact family of nondominated measures. We introduce the corresponding nonlinear Snell envelope. Our main objective is to extend the Snell envelope characterization to the present context. Namely, we prove that the nonlinear Snell envelope is an $\cE-$supermartingale, and an $\cE-$martingale up to its first hitting time of the obstacle $X$. This result is obtained under an additional uniform continuity property of $X$. We also extend the result in the context of a random horizon optimal stopping problem. This result is crucial for the newly developed theory of viscosity solutions of path-dependent PDEs as introduced in Ekren et al., in the semilinear case, and extended to the fully nonlinear case in the accompanying papers (Ekren, Touzi, and Zhang, parts I and II).

preprint2013arXiv

Optimal transportation under controlled stochastic dynamics

We consider an extension of the Monge-Kantorovitch optimal transportation problem. The mass is transported along a continuous semimartingale, and the cost of transportation depends on the drift and the diffusion coefficients of the continuous semimartingale. The optimal transportation problem minimizes the cost among all continuous semimartingales with given initial and terminal distributions. Our first main result is an extension of the Kantorovitch duality to this context. We also suggest a finite-difference scheme combined with the gradient projection algorithm to approximate the dual value. We prove the convergence of the scheme, and we derive a rate of convergence. We finally provide an application in the context of financial mathematics, which originally motivated our extension of the Monge-Kantorovitch problem. Namely, we implement our scheme to approximate no-arbitrage bounds on the prices of exotic options given the implied volatility curve of some maturity.

preprint2012arXiv

Quasi-sure Stochastic Analysis through Aggregation

This paper is on developing stochastic analysis simultaneously under a general family of probability measures that are not dominated by a single probability measure. The interest in this question originates from the probabilistic representations of fully nonlinear partial differential equations and applications to mathematical finance. The existing literature relies either on the capacity theory (by Denis and Martini), or on the underlying nonlinear partial differential equation (by Peng). In both approaches, the resulting theory requires the smoothness of the corresponding processes and random variables in terms of the underlying canonical process. In this paper, we investigate this question for a larger class of "non-smooth" processes, but with a restricted family of non-dominated probability measures. For smooth processes, our approach leads to similar results as in previous literature, provided the restricted family satisfies an additional density property.

preprint2012arXiv

Singular Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations and Emissions Derivatives

We introduce two simple models of forward-backward stochastic differential equations with a singular terminal condition and we explain how and why they appear naturally as models for the valuation of CO2 emission allowances. Single phase cap-and-trade schemes lead readily to terminal conditions given by indicator functions of the forward component, and using fine partial differential equations estimates, we show that the existence theory of these equations, as well as the properties of the candidates for solution, depend strongly upon the characteristics of the forward dynamics. Finally, we give a first order Taylor expansion and show how to numerically calibrate some of these models for the purpose of CO2 option pricing.

preprint2012arXiv

Wellposedness of Second Order Backward SDEs

We provide an existence and uniqueness theory for an extension of backward SDEs to the second order. While standard Backward SDEs are naturally connected to semilinear PDEs, our second order extension is connected to fully nonlinear PDEs, as suggested by Cheridito et.al. In particular, we provide a fully nonlinear extension of the Feynman-Kac formula. Unlike the earlier papers, the alternative formulation of this paper insists that the equation must hold under a non-dominated family of mutually singular probability measures. The key argument is a stochastic representation, suggested by the optimal control interpretation, and analyzed in our accompanying paper

preprint2010arXiv

A Probabilistic Numerical Method for Fully Nonlinear Parabolic PDEs

We consider the probabilistic numerical scheme for fully nonlinear PDEs suggested in \cite{cstv}, and show that it can be introduced naturally as a combination of Monte Carlo and finite differences scheme without appealing to the theory of backward stochastic differential equations. Our first main result provides the convergence of the discrete-time approximation and derives a bound on the discretization error in terms of the time step. An explicit implementable scheme requires to approximate the conditional expectation operators involved in the discretization. This induces a further Monte Carlo error. Our second main result is to prove the convergence of the latter approximation scheme, and to derive an upper bound on the approximation error. Numerical experiments are performed for the approximation of the solution of the mean curvature flow equation in dimensions two and three, and for two and five-dimensional (plus time) fully-nonlinear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations arising in the theory of portfolio optimization in financial mathematics.