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Erhan Bayraktar

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Published work

88 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Conditional Diffusion Under Linear Constraints: Langevin Mixing and Information-Theoretic Guarantees

We study zero-shot conditional sampling with pretrained diffusion models for linear inverse problems, including inpainting and super-resolution. In these problems, the observation determines only part of the unknown signal. The remaining degrees of freedom must be sampled according to the correct conditional data distribution. Existing projection-based samplers enforce measurement consistency by correcting the observed component during reverse diffusion. However, measurement consistency alone does not determine how probability mass should be distributed along the feasible set, and this can lead to biased conditional samples. We analyze this issue through a normal--tangent decomposition of the score function. For Gaussian noising, the observed-direction score is exactly determined by the measurement; only the tangent conditional score is unknown. We prove that the error from replacing this score by the unconditional tangent score is upper bounded by a dimension-free conditional mutual information between observed and unobserved components. This gives an information-theoretic decomposition into initialization and pathwise score-mismatch errors. Motivated by the theory, we propose a projected-Langevin initialization followed by guided reverse denoising, which outperforms a strong projection-based baseline in inpainting and super-resolution experiments.

preprint2026arXiv

Convergence and turnpike properties of linear-quadratic mean field control problems with common noise

We investigate convergence and turnpike properties for linear-quadratic mean field control problems with common noise. Within a unified framework, we analyze a finite-horizon social optimization problem, its mean field control limit, and the corresponding ergodic mean field control problem. The finite-horizon problems are characterized by coupled Riccati differential equations, whereas the ergodic problem is addressed via a Bellman equation on the Wasserstein space, which reduces to a system of stabilizing algebraic Riccati equations. By deriving estimates for these Riccati systems, we establish a turnpike property for the finite-horizon mean field control problem and obtain quantitative convergence results from the social optimization problem to its mean field limit and the associated ergodic control problem.

preprint2026arXiv

When Diffusion Model Can Ignore Dimension: An Entropy-Based Theory

Diffusion models perform remarkably well on high-dimensional data such as images, often using only a modest number of reverse-time steps. Despite this practical success, existing convergence theory does not fully explain why such samplers remain efficient in high dimensions. Many prior KL guarantees bound the discretization error in terms of the ambient dimension, while other improved results replace this dependence using intrinsic-dimensional or geometric structure assumptions. In this work, we develop an alternative information-theoretic perspective on diffusion sampler convergence. We prove that, for Gaussian mixture targets, the discretization error is controlled by the Shannon entropy of the latent mixture component rather than by the ambient dimension. Consequently, the leading step complexity scales linearly with latent entropy and depends only logarithmically on the second moment of the data. Our analysis also extends to discrete target distributions, where the relevant complexity is the entropy of the target rather than the dimension of the embedding space. These results suggest that diffusion sampling can remain efficient in high-dimensional spaces when the data distribution admits a compact latent representation, as is widely believed to be the case for natural images.

preprint2022arXiv

$K_{r,s}$ graph bootstrap percolation

A graph $G$ percolates in the $K_{r,s}$-bootstrap process if we can add all missing edges of $G$ in some order such that each edge creates a new copy of $K_{r,s}$, where $K_{r,s}$ is the complete bipartite graph. We study $K_{r,s}$-bootstrap percolation on the Erdős-Rényi random graph, and determine the percolation threshold for balanced $K_{r,s}$ up to a logarithmic factor. This partially answers a question raised by Balogh, Bollobás, and Morris. We also establish a general lower bound of the percolation threshold for all $K_{r,s}$, with $r\geq s \geq 3$.

preprint2022arXiv

A PDE approach for regret bounds under partial monitoring

In this paper, we study a learning problem in which a forecaster only observes partial information. By properly rescaling the problem, we heuristically derive a limiting PDE on Wasserstein space which characterizes the asymptotic behavior of the regret of the forecaster. Using a verification type argument, we show that the problem of obtaining regret bounds and efficient algorithms can be tackled by finding appropriate smooth sub/supersolutions of this parabolic PDE.

preprint2022arXiv

A potential-based construction of the increasing supermartingale coupling

The increasing supermartingale coupling, introduced by Nutz and Stebegg (Canonical supermartingale couplings, Annals of Probability, 46(6):3351--3398, 2018) is an extreme point of the set of `supermartingale' couplings between two real probability measures in convex-decreasing order. In the present paper we provide an explicit construction of a triple of functions, on the graph of which the increasing supermartingale coupling concentrates. In particular, we show that the increasing supermartingale coupling can be identified with the left-curtain martingale coupling and the antitone coupling to the left and to the right of a uniquely determined regime-switching point, respectively. Our construction is based on the concept of the shadow measure. We show how to determine the potential of the shadow measure associated to a supermartingale, extending the recent results of Beiglböck et al. (The potential of the shadow measure, Electron. Commun. Probab., 27, paper no. 16, 1--12, 2022) obtained in the martingale setting.

preprint2022arXiv

Concentration of measure for Graphon particle system

We study heterogeneously interacting diffusive particle systems with mean-field type interaction characterized by an underlying graphon and their finite particle approximations. Under suitable conditions, we obtain exponential concentration estimates over a finite time horizon for both 1 and 2 Wasserstein distances between the empirical measures of the finite particle systems and the averaged law of the graphon system, extending the work of Bayraktar-Wu.

preprint2022arXiv

Data-Driven Nonparametric Robust Control under Dependence Uncertainty

We consider a multi-period stochastic control problem where the multivariate driving stochastic factor of the system has known marginal distributions but uncertain dependence structure. To solve the problem, we propose to implement the nonparametric adaptive robust control framework. We aim to find the optimal control against the worst-case copulae in a sequence of shrinking uncertainty sets which are generated from continuously observing the data. Then, we use a stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm to numerically handle the corresponding high dimensional dynamic inf-sup optimization problem. We present the numerical results in the context of utility maximization and show that the controller benefits from knowing more information about the uncertain model.

preprint2022arXiv

K-core in percolated dense graph sequences

We determine the size of $k$-core in a large class of dense graph sequences. Let $G_n$ be a sequence of undirected, $n$-vertex graphs with edge weights $\{a^n_{i,j}\}_{i,j \in [n]}$ that converges to a kernel $W:[0,1]^2\to [0,+\infty)$ in the cut metric. Keeping an edge $(i,j)$ of $G_n$ with probability $\min \{ {a^n_{i,j}}/{n},1 \}$ independently, we obtain a sequence of random graphs $G_n(\frac{1}{n})$. Denote by $\mathcal{A}$ the property of a branching process that the initial particle has at least $k$ children, each of which has at least $k-1$ children, each of which has at least $k-1$ children, and so on. Using branching process and the theory of dense graph limits, under mild assumptions we obtain the size of $k$-core of random graphs $G_n(\frac{1}{n})$, \begin{align*} \text{size of $k$-core of } G_n\left(\frac{1}{n}\right) =n \mathbb{P}_{X^W}\left(\mathcal{A}\right) +o_p(n). \end{align*} Our result can also be used to obtain the threshold of appearance of a $k$-core of order $n$.

preprint2022arXiv

Nonparametric Adaptive Robust Control Under Model Uncertainty

We consider a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. Such uncertainty not only comes from the fact that the true probability law of the underlying stochastic process is unknown, but the parametric family of probability distributions which the true law belongs to is also unknown. We propose a nonparametric adaptive robust control methodology to deal with such problem. Our approach hinges on the following building concepts: first, using the adaptive robust paradigm to incorporate online learning and uncertainty reduction into the robust control problem; second, learning the unknown probability law through the empirical distribution, and representing uncertainty reduction in terms of a sequence of Wasserstein balls around the empirical distribution; third, using Lagrangian duality to convert the optimization over Wasserstein balls to a scalar optimization problem, and adopting a machine learning technique to achieve efficient computation of the optimal control. We illustrate our methodology by considering a utility maximization problem. Numerical comparisons show that the nonparametric adaptive robust control approach is preferable to the traditional robust frameworks.

preprint2022arXiv

Path-dependent Hamilton-Jacobi equations with super-quadratic growth in the gradient and the vanishing viscosity method

The non-exponential Schilder-type theorem in Backhoff-Veraguas, Lacker and Tangpi [Ann. Appl. Probab., 30 (2020), pp. 1321-1367] is expressed as a convergence result for path-dependent partial differential equations with appropriate notions of generalized solutions. This entails a non-Markovian counterpart to the vanishing viscosity method. We show uniqueness of maximal subsolutions for path-dependent viscous Hamilton-Jacobi equations related to convex super-quadratic backward stochastic differential equations. We establish well-posedness for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation associated to a Bolza problem of the calculus of variations with path-dependent terminal cost. In particular, uniqueness among lower semi-continuous solutions holds and state constraints are admitted.

preprint2022arXiv

Propagation of Chaos of Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Graphon Interactions

In this paper, we study graphon mean field games using a system of forward-backward stochastic differential equations. We establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions under two different assumptions and prove the stability with respect to the interacting graphons which are necessary to show propagation of chaos results. As an application of propagation of chaos, we prove the convergence of n-player game Nash equilibrium for a general model, which is new in the theory of graphon mean field games.

preprint2022arXiv

Stability of Equilibria in Time-inconsistent Stopping Problems

We investigate the stability of equilibrium-induced optimal values with respect to (w.r.t.) reward functions $f$ and transition kernels $Q$ for time-inconsistent stopping problems under nonexponential discounting in discrete time. First, with locally uniform convergence of $f$ and $Q$ equipped with total variation distance, we show that the optimal value is semi-continuous w.r.t. $(f,Q)$. We provide examples showing that continuity may fail in general, and the convergence for $Q$ in total variation cannot be replaced by weak convergence. Next we show that with the uniform convergence of $f$ and $Q$, the optimal value is continuous w.r.t. $(f,Q)$ when we consider a relaxed limit over $\varepsilon$-equilibria. We also provide an example showing that for such continuity the uniform convergence of $(f,Q)$ cannot be replaced by locally uniform convergence.

preprint2022arXiv

Supermartingale Brenier's Theorem with full-marginals constraint

We explicitly construct the supermartingale version of the Fr{é}chet-Hoeffding coupling in the setting with infinitely many marginal constraints. This extends the results of Henry-Labordere et al. obtained in the martingale setting. Our construction is based on the Markovian iteration of one-period optimal supermartingale couplings. In the limit, as the number of iterations goes to infinity, we obtain a pure jump process that belongs to a family of local L{é}vy models introduced by Carr et al. We show that the constructed processes solve the continuous-time supermartingale optimal transport problem for a particular family of path-dependent cost functions. The explicit computations are provided in the following three cases: the uniform case, the Bachelier model and the Geometric Brownian Motion case.

preprint2021arXiv

Finite state Mean Field Games with Wright-Fisher common noise

We force uniqueness in finite state mean field games by adding a Wright-Fisher common noise. We achieve this by analyzing the master equation of this game, which is a degenerate parabolic second-order partial differential equation set on the simplex whose characteristics solve the stochastic forward-backward system associated with the mean field game; see Cardaliaguet et al. (2019). We show that this equation, which is a non-linear version of the Kimura type equation studied in Epstein and Mazzeo (2013), has a unique smooth solution whenever the normal component of the drift at the boundary is strong enough. Among others, this requires a priori estimates of Hölder type for the corresponding Kimura operator when the drift therein is merely continuous.

preprint2021arXiv

Optimal Investment and Consumption under a Habit-Formation Constraint

We formulate an infinite-horizon optimal investment and consumption problem, in which an individual forms a habit based on the exponentially weighted average of her past consumption rate, and in which she invests in a Black-Scholes market. The individual is constrained to consume at a rate higher than a certain proportion $α$ of her consumption habit. Our habit-formation model allows for both addictive ($α=1$) and nonaddictive ($0<α<1$) habits. The optimal investment and consumption policies are derived explicitly in terms of the solution of a system of differential equations with free boundaries, which is analyzed in detail. If the wealth-to-habit ratio is below (resp. above) a critical level $x^*$, the individual consumes at (resp. above) the minimum rate and invests more (resp. less) aggressively in the risky asset. Numerical results show that the addictive habit formation requires significantly more wealth to support the same consumption rate compared to a moderately nonaddictive habit. Furthermore, an individual with a more addictive habit invests less in the risky asset compared to an individual with a less addictive habit but with the same wealth-to-habit ratio and risk aversion, which provides an explanation for the equity-premium puzzle.

preprint2021arXiv

Prediction against a limited adversary

We study the problem of prediction with expert advice with adversarial corruption where the adversary can at most corrupt one expert. Using tools from viscosity theory, we characterize the long-time behavior of the value function of the game between the forecaster and the adversary. We provide lower and upper bounds for the growth rate of regret without relying on a comparison result. We show that depending on the description of regret, the limiting behavior of the game can significantly differ.

preprint2020arXiv

A Macroeconomic SIR Model for COVID-19

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the impacts of a disease outbreak are therefore extremely useful for policymakers seeking to evaluate the best course of action in such a crisis. We develop an SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic that explicitly considers herd immunity, behavior-dependent transmission rates, remote workers, and indirect externalities of lockdown. This model is presented as an exit time control problem where lockdown ends when the population achieves herd immunity, either naturally or via a vaccine. A social planner prescribes separate levels of lockdown for two separate sections of the adult population: low-risk (ages 20-64) and high-risk (ages 65 and over). These levels are determined via optimization of an objective function which assigns a macroeconomic cost to the level of lockdown and the number of deaths. We find that, by ending lockdowns once herd immunity is reached, high-risk individuals are able to leave lockdown significantly before the arrival of a vaccine without causing large increases in mortality. Moreover, if we incorporate a behavior-dependent transmission rate which represents increased personal caution in response to increased infection levels, both output loss and total mortality are lowered. Lockdown efficacy is further increased when there is less interaction between low- and high-risk individuals, and increased remote work decreases output losses. Overall, our model predicts that a lockdown which ends at the arrival of herd immunity, combined with individual actions to slow virus transmission, can reduce total mortality to one-third of the no-lockdown level, while allowing high-risk individuals to leave lockdown well before vaccine arrival.

preprint2020arXiv

Asymptotics for Small Nonlinear Price Impact: a PDE Approach to the Multidimensional Case

We provide an asymptotic expansion of the value function of a multidimensional utility maximization problem from consumption with small non-linear price impact. In our model cross-impacts between assets are allowed. In the limit for small price impact, we determine the asymptotic expansion of the value function around its frictionless version. The leading order correction is characterized by a nonlinear second order PDE related to an ergodic control problem and a linear parabolic PDE. We illustrate our result on a multivariate geometric Brownian motion price model.

preprint2020arXiv

Continuity of Utility Maximization under Weak Convergence

In this paper we find tight sufficient conditions for the continuity of the value of the utility maximization problem from terminal wealth with respect to the convergence in distribution of the underlying processes. We also establish a weak convergence result for the terminal wealths of the optimal portfolios. Finally, we apply our results to the computation of the minimal expected shortfall (shortfall risk) in the Heston model by building an appropriate lattice approximation.

preprint2020arXiv

Extended Weak Convergence and Utility Maximization with Proportional Transaction Costs

In this paper we study utility maximization with proportional transaction costs. Assuming extended weak convergence of the underlying processes we prove the convergence of the corresponding utility maximization problems. Moreover, we establish a limit theorem for the optimal trading strategies. The proofs are based on the extended weak convergence theory developed in [1] and the Meyer--Zheng topology introduced in [24].

preprint2020arXiv

Malicious Experts versus the multiplicative weights algorithm in online prediction

We consider a prediction problem with two experts and a forecaster. We assume that one of the experts is honest and makes correct prediction with probability $μ$ at each round. The other one is malicious, who knows true outcomes at each round and makes predictions in order to maximize the loss of the forecaster. Assuming the forecaster adopts the classical multiplicative weights algorithm, we find upper and lower bounds for the value function of the malicious expert. Our results imply that the multiplicative weights algorithm cannot resist the corruption of malicious experts. We also show that an adaptive multiplicative weights algorithm is asymptotically optimal for the forecaster, and hence more resistant to the corruption of malicious experts.

preprint2020arXiv

On non-uniqueness in mean field games

We analyze an $N+1$-player game and the corresponding mean field game with state space $\{0,1\}$. The transition rate of $j$-th player is the sum of his control $α^j$ plus a minimum jumping rate $η$. Instead of working under monotonicity conditions, here we consider an anti-monotone running cost. We show that the mean field game equation may have multiple solutions if $η< \frac{1}{2}$. We also prove that that although multiple solutions exist, only the one coming from the entropy solution is charged (when $η=0$), and therefore resolve a conjecture of ArXiv: 1903.05788.

preprint2020arXiv

On the adversarial robustness of robust estimators

Motivated by recent data analytics applications, we study the adversarial robustness of robust estimators. Instead of assuming that only a fraction of the data points are outliers as considered in the classic robust estimation setup, in this paper, we consider an adversarial setup in which an attacker can observe the whole dataset and can modify all data samples in an adversarial manner so as to maximize the estimation error caused by his attack. We characterize the attacker's optimal attack strategy, and further introduce adversarial influence function (AIF) to quantify an estimator's sensitivity to such adversarial attacks. We provide an approach to characterize AIF for any given robust estimator, and then design optimal estimator that minimizes AIF, which implies it is least sensitive to adversarial attacks and hence is most robust against adversarial attacks. From this characterization, we identify a tradeoff between AIF (i.e., robustness against adversarial attack) and influence function, a quantity used in classic robust estimators to measure robustness against outliers, and design estimators that strike a desirable tradeoff between these two quantities.

preprint2020arXiv

On the asymptotic optimality of the comb strategy for prediction with expert advice

For the problem of prediction with expert advice in the adversarial setting with geometric stopping, we compute the exact leading order expansion for the long time behavior of the value function. Then, we use this expansion to prove that as conjectured in Gravin et al. [12], the comb strategies are indeed asymptotically optimal for the adversary in the case of 4 experts.

preprint2020arXiv

Terminal Ranking Games

We analyze a mean field tournament: a mean field game in which the agents receive rewards according to the ranking of the terminal value of their projects and are subject to cost of effort. Using Schrödinger bridges we are able to explicitly calculate the equilibrium. This allows us to identify the reward functions which would yield a desired equilibrium and solve several related mechanism design problems. We are also able to identify the effect of reward inequality on the players' welfare as well as calculate the price of anarchy.

preprint2020arXiv

Transport plans with domain constraints

This paper focuses on martingale optimal transport problems when the martingales are assumed to have bounded quadratic variation. First, we give a result that characterizes the existence of a probability measure satisfying some convex transport constraints in addition to having given initial and terminal marginals. Several applications are provided: martingale measures with volatility uncertainty, optimal transport with capacity constraints, and Skorokhod embedding with bounded times. Next, we extend this result to multi-marginal constraints. Finally, we consider an optimal transport problem with constraints and obtain its Kantorovich duality. A corollary of this result is a monotonicity principle which gives a geometric way of identifying the optimizer.

preprint2016arXiv

An $α$-stable limit theorem under sublinear expectation

For $α\in (1,2)$, we present a generalized central limit theorem for $α$-stable random variables under sublinear expectation. The foundation of our proof is an interior regularity estimate for partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs). A classical generalized central limit theorem is recovered as a special case, provided a mild but natural additional condition holds. Our approach contrasts with previous arguments for the result in the linear setting which have typically relied upon tools that are non-existent in the sublinear framework, for example, characteristic functions.

preprint2016arXiv

Arbitrage, hedging and utility maximization using semi-static trading strategies with American options

We consider a financial market where stocks are available for dynamic trading, and European and American options are available for static trading (semi-static trading strategies). We assume that the American options are infinitely divisible, and can only be bought but not sold. In the first part of the paper, we work within the framework without model ambiguity. We first get the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP). Using the FTAP, we get the dualities for the hedging prices of European and American options. Based on the hedging dualities, we also get the duality for the utility maximization. In the second part of the paper, we consider the market which admits non-dominated model uncertainty. We first establish the hedging result, and then using the hedging duality we further get the FTAP. Due to the technical difficulty stemming from the non-dominancy of the probability measure set, we use a discretization technique and apply the minimax theorem.

preprint2016arXiv

Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Drawdown under Constant Consumption

We assume that an individual invests in a financial market with one riskless and one risky asset, with the latter's price following geometric Brownian motion as in the Black-Scholes model. Under a constant rate of consumption, we find the optimal investment strategy for the individual who wishes to minimize the probability that her wealth drops below some fixed proportion of her maximum wealth to date, the so-called probability of {\it lifetime drawdown}. If maximum wealth is less than a particular value, $m^*$, then the individual optimally invests in such a way that maximum wealth never increases above its current value. By contrast, if maximum wealth is greater than $m^*$ but less than the safe level, then the individual optimally allows the maximum to increase to the safe level.

preprint2016arXiv

On the Robust Dynkin Game

We study a robust Dynkin game over a set of mutually singular probabilities. We first prove that for the conservative player of the game, her lower and upper value processes coincide (i.e. She has a value process $V $ in the game). Such a result helps people connect the robust Dynkin game with second-order doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equations. Also, we show that the value process $V$ is a submartingale under an appropriately defined nonlinear expectations up to the first time $τ_*$ when $V$ meets the lower payoff process $L$. If the probability set is weakly compact, one can even find an optimal triplet. The mutual singularity of probabilities in causes major technical difficulties. To deal with them, we use some new methods including two approximations with respect to the set of stopping times. The mutual singularity of probabilities causes major technical difficulties. To deal with them, we use some new methods including two approximations with respect to the set of stopping times

preprint2016arXiv

On the Robust Optimal Stopping Problem

We study a robust optimal stopping problem with respect to a set $\cP$ of mutually singular probabilities. This can be interpreted as a zero-sum controller-stopper game in which the stopper is trying to maximize its pay-off while an adverse player wants to minimize this payoff by choosing an evaluation criteria from $\cP$. We show that the \emph{upper Snell envelope $\ol{Z}$} of the reward process $Y$ is a supermartingale with respect to an appropriately defined nonlinear expectation $\ul{\sE}$, and $\ol{Z}$ is further an $\ul{\sE}-$martingale up to the first time $\t^*$ when $\ol{Z}$ meets $Y$. Consequently, $\t^*$ is the optimal stopping time for the robust optimal stopping problem and the corresponding zero-sum game has a value. Although the result seems similar to the one obtained in the classical optimal stopping theory, the mutual singularity of probabilities and the game aspect of the problem give rise to major technical hurdles, which we circumvent using some new methods.

preprint2016arXiv

Optimal Investment to Minimize the Probability of Drawdown

We determine the optimal investment strategy in a Black-Scholes financial market to minimize the so-called {\it probability of drawdown}, namely, the probability that the value of an investment portfolio reaches some fixed proportion of its maximum value to date. We assume that the portfolio is subject to a payout that is a deterministic function of its value, as might be the case for an endowment fund paying at a specified rate, for example, at a constant rate or at a rate that is proportional to the fund's value.

preprint2016arXiv

Optimal Stopping with Random Maturity under Nonlinear Expectations

We analyze an optimal stopping problem with random maturity under a nonlinear expectation with respect to a weakly compact set of mutually singular probabilities $\mathcal{P}$. The maturity is specified as the hitting time to level $0$ of some continuous index process at which the payoff process is even allowed to have a positive jump. When $\mathcal{P}$ is a collection of semimartingale measures, the optimal stopping problem can be viewed as a {\it discretionary} stopping problem for a player who can influence both drift and volatility of the dynamic of underlying stochastic flow.

preprint2016arXiv

Optimally Investing to Reach a Bequest Goal

We determine the optimal strategy for investing in a Black-Scholes market in order to maximize the probability that wealth at death meets a bequest goal $b$, a type of goal-seeking problem, as pioneered by Dubins and Savage (1965, 1976). The individual consumes at a constant rate $c$, so the level of wealth required for risklessly meeting consumption equals $c/r$, in which $r$ is the rate of return of the riskless asset. Our problem is related to, but different from, the goal-reaching problems of Browne (1997). First, Browne (1997, Section 3.1) maximizes the probability that wealth reaches $b < c/r$ before it reaches $a < b$. Browne's game ends when wealth reaches $b$. By contrast, for the problem we consider, the game continues until the individual dies or until wealth reaches 0; reaching $b$ and then falling below it before death does not count. Second, Browne (1997, Section 4.2) maximizes the expected discounted reward of reaching $b > c/r$ before wealth reaches $c/r$. If one interprets his discount rate as a hazard rate, then our two problems are {\it mathematically} equivalent for the special case for which $b > c/r$, with ruin level $c/r$. However, we obtain different results because we set the ruin level at 0, thereby allowing the game to continue when wealth falls below $c/r$.

preprint2016arXiv

Purchasing Term Life Insurance to Reach a Bequest Goal while Consuming

We determine the optimal strategies for purchasing term life insurance and for investing in a risky financial market in order to maximize the probability of reaching a bequest goal while consuming from an investment account. We extend Bayraktar and Young (2015) by allowing the individual to purchase term life insurance to reach her bequest goal. The premium rate for life insurance, $h$, serves as a parameter to connect two seemingly unrelated problems. As the premium rate approaches $0$, covering the bequest goal becomes costless, so the individual simply wants to avoid ruin that might result from her consumption. Thus, as $h$ approaches $0$, the problem in this paper becomes equivalent to minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin, which is solved in Young (2004). On the other hand, as the premium rate becomes arbitrarily large, the individual will not buy life insurance to reach her bequest goal. Thus, as $h$ approaches infinity, the problem in this paper becomes equivalent to maximizing the probability of reaching the bequest goal when life insurance is not available in the market, which is solved in Bayraktar and Young (2015).

preprint2016arXiv

Randomized dynamic programming principle and Feynman-Kac representation for optimal control of McKean-Vlasov dynamics

We analyze a stochastic optimal control problem, where the state process follows a McKean-Vlasov dynamics and the diffusion coefficient can be degenerate. We prove that its value function V admits a nonlinear Feynman-Kac representation in terms of a class of forward-backward stochastic differential equations, with an autonomous forward process. We exploit this probabilistic representation to rigorously prove the dynamic programming principle (DPP) for V. The Feynman-Kac representation we obtain has an important role beyond its intermediary role in obtaining our main result: in fact it would be useful in developing probabilistic numerical schemes for V. The DPP is important in obtaining a characterization of the value function as a solution of a non-linear partial differential equation (the so-called Hamilton-Jacobi-Belman equation), in this case on the Wasserstein space of measures. We should note that the usual way of solving these equations is through the Pontryagin maximum principle, which requires some convexity assumptions. There were attempts in using the dynamic programming approach before, but these works assumed a priori that the controls were of Markovian feedback type, which helps write the problem only in terms of the distribution of the state process (and the control problem becomes a deterministic problem). In this paper, we will consider open-loop controls and derive the dynamic programming principle in this most general case. In order to obtain the Feynman-Kac representation and the randomized dynamic programming principle, we implement the so-called randomization method, which consists in formulating a new McKean-Vlasov control problem, expressed in weak form taking the supremum over a family of equivalent probability measures. One of the main results of the paper is the proof that this latter control problem has the same value function V of the original control problem.

preprint2016arXiv

Robust feedback switching control: dynamic programming and viscosity solutions

We consider a robust switching control problem. The controller only observes the evolution of the state process, and thus uses feedback (closed-loop) switching strategies, a non standard class of switching controls introduced in this paper. The adverse player (nature) chooses open-loop controls that represent the so-called Knightian uncertainty, i.e., misspecifications of the model. The (half) game switcher versus nature is then formulated as a two-step (robust) optimization problem. We develop the stochastic Perron method in this framework, and prove that it produces a viscosity sub and supersolution to a system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) variational inequalities, which envelope the value function. Together with a comparison principle, this characterizes the value function of the game as the unique viscosity solution to the HJB equation, and shows as a byproduct the dynamic programming principle for robust feedback switching control problem.

preprint2016arXiv

Stochastic Perron for stochastic target games

We extend the stochastic Perron method to analyze the framework of stochastic target games, in which one player tries to find a strategy such that the state process almost surely reaches a given target no matter which action is chosen by the other player. Within this framework, our method produces a viscosity sub-solution (super-solution) of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. We then characterize the value function as a viscosity solution to the HJB equation using a comparison result and a byproduct to obtain the dynamic programming principle.

preprint2016arXiv

Stochastic Perron for Stochastic Target Problems

In this paper, we adapt stochastic Perron's method to analyze a stochastic target problem with unbounded controls in a jump diffusion set-up. With this method, we construct a viscosity sub-solution and super-solution to the associated Hamiltonian-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations. Under comparison principles, uniqueness of the viscosity solutions holds and the value function coincides with the unique solution in the parabolic interior. Since classical control problems can be analyzed under the framework of stochastic target problems (with unbounded controls), we use our results to generalize the results in ArXiv:1212.2170 to problems with controlled jumps.

preprint2015arXiv

Doubly Reflected BSDEs with Integrable Parameters and Related Dynkin Games

We study a doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) with integrable parameters and the related Dynkin game. When the lower obstacle $L$ and the upper obstacle $U$ of the equation are completely separated, we construct a unique solution of the doubly reflected BSDE by pasting local solutions and show that the $Y-$component of the unique solution represents the value process of the corresponding Dynkin game under $g-$evaluation, a nonlinear expectation induced by BSDEs with the same generator $g$ as the doubly reflected BSDE concerned. In particular, the first time when process $Y $ meets $L$ and the first time when process $Y $ meets $U$ form a saddle point of the Dynkin game.

preprint2015arXiv

Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under Transaction costs and Model uncertainty

We prove the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for a discrete time financial market where trading is subject to proportional transaction cost and the asset price dynamic is modeled by a family of probability measures, possibly non-dominated. Using a backward-forward scheme, we show that when the market consists of a money market account and a single stock, no-arbitrage in a quasi-sure sense is equivalent to the existence of a suitable family of consistent price systems. We also show that when the market consists of multiple dynamically traded assets and satisfies \emph{efficient friction}, strict no-arbitrage in a quasi-sure sense is equivalent to the existence of a suitable family of strictly consistent price systems.

preprint2015arXiv

Minimizing the Expected Lifetime Spent in Drawdown under Proportional Consumption

We determine the optimal amount to invest in a Black-Scholes financial market for an individual who consumes at a rate equal to a constant proportion of her wealth and who wishes to minimize the expected time that her wealth spends in drawdown during her lifetime. Drawdown occurs when wealth is less than some fixed proportion of maximum wealth. We compare the optimal investment strategy with those for three related goal-seeking problems and learn that the individual is myopic in her investing behavior, as expected from other goal-seeking research.

preprint2015arXiv

On an Optimal Stopping Problem of an Insider

We consider the optimal stopping problem $v^{(\eps)}:=\sup_{τ\in\mathcal{T}_{0,T}}\mathbb{E}B_{(τ-\eps)^+}$ posed by Shiryaev at the International Conference on Advanced Stochastic Optimization Problems organized by the Steklov Institute of Mathematics in September 2012. Here $T>0$ is a fixed time horizon, $(B_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ is the Brownian motion, $\eps\in[0,T]$ is a constant, and $\mathcal{T}_{\eps,T}$ is the set of stopping times taking values in $[\eps,T]$. The solution of this problem is characterized by a path dependent reflected backward stochastic differential equations, from which the continuity of $\eps \to v^{(\eps)}$ follows. For large enough $\eps$, we obtain an explicit expression for $v^{(\eps)}$ and for small $\eps$ we have lower and upper bounds. The main result of the paper is the asymptotics of $v^{(\eps)}$ as $\eps\searrow 0$. As a byproduct, we also obtain Lévy's modulus of continuity result in the $L^1$ sense.

preprint2015arXiv

On Arbitrage and Duality under Model Uncertainty and Portfolio Constraints

We consider the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) and hedging prices of options under non-dominated model uncertainty and portfolio constrains in discrete time. We first show that no arbitrage holds if and only if there exists some family of probability measures such that any admissible portfolio value process is a local super-martingale under these measures. We also get the non-dominated optional decomposition with constraints. From this decomposition, we get duality of the super-hedging prices of European options, as well as the sub- and super-hedging prices of American options. Finally, we get the FTAP and duality of super-hedging prices in a market where stocks are traded dynamically and options are traded statically.

preprint2015arXiv

On hedging American options under model uncertainty

We consider as given a discrete time financial market with a risky asset and options written on that asset and determine both the sub- and super-hedging prices of an American option in the model independent framework of ArXiv:1305.6008. We obtain the duality of results for the sub- and super-hedging prices. For the sub-hedging prices we discuss whether the sup and inf in the dual representation can be exchanged (a counter example shows that this is not true in general). For the super-hedging prices we discuss several alternative definitions and argue why our choice is more reasonable. Then assuming that the path space is compact, we construct a discretization of the path space and demonstrate the convergence of the hedging prices at the optimal rate. The latter result would be useful for numerical computation of the hedging prices. Our results generalize those of ArXiv:1304.3574 to the case when static positions in (finitely many) European options can be used in the hedging portfolio.

preprint2015arXiv

Purchasing Term Life Insurance to Reach a Bequest Goal: Time-Dependent Case

We consider the problem of how an individual can use term life insurance to maximize the probability of reaching a given bequest goal, an important problem in financial planning. We assume that the individual buys instantaneous term life insurance with a premium payable continuously. By contrast with Bayraktar et al. (2014), we allow the force of mortality to vary with time, which, as we show, greatly complicates the problem.

preprint2015arXiv

Weak reflection principle for Lévy processes

In this paper, we develop a new mathematical technique which allows us to express the joint distribution of a Markov process and its running maximum (or minimum) through the marginal distribution of the process itself. This technique is an extension of the classical reflection principle for Brownian motion, and it is obtained by weakening the assumptions of symmetry required for the classical reflection principle to work. We call this method a weak reflection principle and show that it provides solutions to many problems for which the classical reflection principle is typically used. In addition, unlike the classical reflection principle, the new method works for a much larger class of stochastic processes which, in particular, do not possess any strong symmetries. Here, we review the existing results which establish the weak reflection principle for a large class of time-homogeneous diffusions on a real line and then proceed to extend this method to the Lévy processes with one-sided jumps (subject to some admissibility conditions). Finally, we demonstrate the applications of the weak reflection principle in financial mathematics, computational methods and inverse problems.

preprint2014arXiv

A note on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing under model uncertainty

We show that the results of ArXiv:1305.6008 on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the super-hedging theorem can be extended to the case in which the options available for static hedging (\emph{hedging options}) are quoted with bid-ask spreads. In this set-up, we need to work with the notion of \emph{robust no-arbitrage} which turns out to be equivalent to no-arbitrage under the additional assumption that hedging options with non-zero spread are \emph{non-redundant}. A key result is the closedness of the set of attainable claims, which requires a new proof in our setting.

preprint2014arXiv

Bayesian Quickest Change Point Detection with Sampling Right Constraints

In this paper, Bayesian quickest change detection problems with sampling right constraints are considered. Specifically, there is a sequence of random variables whose probability density function will change at an unknown time. The goal is to detect this change in a way such that a linear combination of the average detection delay and the false alarm probability is minimized. Two types of sampling right constrains are discussed. The first one is a limited sampling right constraint, in which the observer can take at most $N$ observations from this random sequence. Under this setup, we show that the cost function can be written as a set of iterative functions, which can be solved by Markov optimal stopping theory. The optimal stopping rule is shown to be a threshold rule. An asymptotic upper bound of the average detection delay is developed as the false alarm probability goes to zero. This upper bound indicates that the performance of the limited sampling right problem is close to that of the classic Bayesian quickest detection for several scenarios of practical interest. The second constraint discussed in this paper is a stochastic sampling right constraint, in which sampling rights are consumed by taking observations and are replenished randomly. The observer cannot take observations if there are no sampling rights left. We characterize the optimal solution, which has a very complex structure. For practical applications, we propose a low complexity algorithm, in which the sampling rule is to take observations as long as the observer has sampling rights left and the detection scheme is a threshold rule. We show that this low complexity scheme is first order asymptotically optimal as the false alarm probability goes to zero.

preprint2014arXiv

Byzantine Fault Tolerant Distributed Quickest Change Detection

We introduce and solve the problem of Byzantine fault tolerant distributed quickest change detection in both continuous and discrete time setups. In this problem, multiple sensors sequentially observe random signals from the environment and send their observations to a control center that will determine whether there is a change in the statistical behavior of the observations. We assume that the signals are independent and identically distributed across sensors. An unknown subset of sensors are compromised and will send arbitrarily modified and even artificially generated signals to the control center. It is shown that the performance of the the so-called CUSUM statistic, which is optimal when all sensors are honest, will be significantly degraded in the presence of even a single dishonest sensor. In particular, instead of in a logarithmically the detection delay grows linearly with the average run length (ARL) to false alarm. To mitigate such a performance degradation, we propose a fully distributed low complexity detection scheme. We show that the proposed scheme can recover the log scaling. We also propose a centralized group-wise scheme that can further reduce the detection delay.

preprint2014arXiv

Comparing the $G$-Normal Distribution to its Classical Counterpart

In one dimension, the theory of the $G$-normal distribution is well-developed, and many results from the classical setting have a nonlinear counterpart. Significant challenges remain in multiple dimensions, and some of what has already been discovered is quite nonintuitive. By answering several classically-inspired questions concerning independence, covariance uncertainty, and behavior under certain linear operations, we continue to highlight the fascinating range of unexpected attributes of the multidimensional $G$-normal distribution.

preprint2014arXiv

Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Ruin Under Ambiguity Aversion

We determine the optimal robust investment strategy of an individual who targets at a given rate of consumption and seeks to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin when she does not have perfect confidence in the drift of the risky asset. Using stochastic control, we characterize the value function as the unique classical solution of an associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, obtain feedback forms for the optimal investment and drift distortion, and discuss their dependence on various model parameters. In analyzing the HJB equation, we establish the existence and uniqueness of viscosity solution using Perron's method, and then upgrade regularity by working with an equivalent convex problem obtained via the Cole-Hopf transformation. We show the original value function may lose convexity for a class of parameters and the Isaacs condition may fail. Numerical examples are also included to illustrate our results.

preprint2014arXiv

Purchasing Life Insurance to Reach a Bequest Goal

We determine how an individual can use life insurance to meet a bequest goal. We assume that the individual's consumption is met by an income, such as a pension, life annuity, or Social Security. Then, we consider the wealth that the individual wants to devote towards heirs (separate from any wealth related to the afore-mentioned income) and find the optimal strategy for buying life insurance to maximize the probability of reaching a given bequest goal. We consider life insurance purchased by a single premium, with and without cash value available. We also consider irreversible and reversible life insurance purchased by a continuously paid premium; one can view the latter as (instantaneous) term life insurance.

preprint2014arXiv

Quickest Detection with Discretely Controlled Observations

We study a continuous time Bayesian quickest detection problem in which observation times are a scarce resource. The agent, limited to making a finite number of discrete observations, must adaptively decide his observation strategy to minimize detection delay and the probability of false alarm. Under two different models of observation rights, we establish the existence of optimal strategies, and formulate an algorithmic approach to the problem via jump operators. We describe algorithms for these problems, and illustrate them with some numerical results. As the number of observation rights tends to infinity, we also show convergence to the classical continuous observation problem of Shiryaev.

preprint2014arXiv

Stochastic Perron's Method for the Probability of lifetime ruin problem under transaction costs

We apply stochastic Perron's method to a singular control problem where an individual targets at a given consumption rate, invests in a risky financial market in which trading is subject to proportional transaction costs, and seeks to minimize her probability of lifetime ruin. Without relying on the dynamic programming principle (DPP), we characterize the value function as the unique viscosity solution of an associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) variational inequality. We also provide a complete proof of the comparison principle which is the main assumption of stochastic Perron's method.

preprint2013arXiv

A Note on Applications of Stochastic Ordering to Control Problems in Insurance and Finance

We consider a controlled diffusion process $(X_t)_{t\ge 0}$ where the controller is allowed to choose the drift $μ_t$ and the volatility $σ_t$ from a set $\K(x) \subset \R\times (0,\infty)$ when $X_t=x$. By choosing the largest $\fracμ{σ^2}$ at every point in time an extremal process is constructed which is under suitable time changes stochastically larger than any other admissible process. This observation immediately leads to a very simple solution of problems where ruin or hitting probabilities have to be minimized. Under further conditions this extremal process also minimizes "drawdown" probabilities.

preprint2013arXiv

A Weak Dynamic Programming Principle for Zero-Sum Stochastic Differential Games with Unbounded Controls

We analyze a zero-sum stochastic differential game between two competing players who can choose unbounded controls. The payoffs of the game are defined through backward stochastic differential equations. We prove that each player's priority value satisfies a weak dynamic programming principle and thus solves the associated fully non-linear partial differential equation in the viscosity sense.

preprint2013arXiv

Life Insurance Purchasing to Maximize Utility of Household Consumption

We determine the optimal amount of life insurance for a household of two wage earners. We consider the simple case of exponential utility, thereby removing wealth as a factor in buying life insurance, while retaining the relationship among life insurance, income, and the probability of dying and thus losing that income. For insurance purchased via a single premium or premium payable continuously, we explicitly determine the optimal death benefit. We show that if the premium is determined to target a specific probability of loss per policy, then the rates of consumption are identical under single premium or continuously payable premium. Thus, not only is equivalence of consumption achieved for the households under the two premium schemes, it is also obtained for the insurance company in the sense of equivalence of loss probabilities.

preprint2013arXiv

On controller-stopper problems with jumps and their applications to indifference pricing of American options

We consider controller-stopper problems in which the controlled processes can have jumps. The global filtration is represented by the Brownian filtration, enlarged by the filtration generated by the jump process. We assume that there exists a conditional probability density function for the jump times and marks given the filtration of the Brownian motion and decompose the global controller-stopper problem into controller-stopper problems with respect to the Brownian filtration, which are determined by a backward induction. We apply our decomposition method to indifference pricing of American options under multiple default risk. The backward induction leads to a system of reflected backward stochastic differential equations (RBSDEs). We show that there exists a solution to this RBSDE system and that the solution provides a characterization of the value function.

preprint2013arXiv

On model-independent pricing/hedging using shortfall risk and quantiles

We consider the pricing and hedging of exotic options in a model-independent set-up using \emph{shortfall risk and quantiles}. We assume that the marginal distributions at certain times are given. This is tantamount to calibrating the model to call options with discrete set of maturities but a continuum of strikes. In the case of pricing with shortfall risk, we prove that the minimum initial amount is equal to the super-hedging price plus the inverse of the utility at the given shortfall level. In the second result, we show that the quantile hedging problem is equivalent to super-hedging problems for knockout options. These results generalize the duality results of [5,6] to the model independent setting of [1].

preprint2013arXiv

On the Existence of Consistent Price Systems

We formulate a sufficient condition for the existence of a consistent price system (CPS), which is weaker than the conditional full support condition (CFS) introduced by Guasoni, Rasonyi, and Schachermayer [Ann. Appl. Probab., 18(2008), pp. 491-520] . We use the new condition to show the existence of CPSs for certain processes that fail to have the CFS property. In particular this condition gives sufficient conditions, under which a continuous function of a process with CFS admits a CPS, while the CFS property might be lost.

preprint2013arXiv

On the Multi-Dimensional Controller and Stopper Games

We consider a zero-sum stochastic differential controller-and-stopper game in which the state process is a controlled diffusion evolving in a multi-dimensional Euclidean space. In this game, the controller affects both the drift and the volatility terms of the state process. Under appropriate conditions, we show that the game has a value and the value function is the unique viscosity solution to an obstacle problem for a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.

preprint2013arXiv

On utility maximization with derivatives under model uncertainty

We consider the robust utility maximization using a static holding in derivatives and a dynamic holding in the stock. There is no fixed model for the price of the stock but we consider a set of probability measures (models) which are not necessarily dominated by a fixed probability measure. By assuming that the set of physical probability measures is convex and weakly compact, we obtain the duality result and the existence of an optimizer.

preprint2013arXiv

Optimal dividends in the dual model under transaction costs

We analyze the optimal dividend payment problem in the dual model under constant transaction costs. We show, for a general spectrally positive Lévy process, an optimal strategy is given by a $(c_1,c_2)$-policy that brings the surplus process down to $c_1$ whenever it reaches or exceeds $c_2$ for some $0 \leq c_1 < c_2$. The value function is succinctly expressed in terms of the scale function. A series of numerical examples are provided to confirm the analytical results and to demonstrate the convergence to the no-transaction cost case, which was recently solved by Bayraktar et al. (2013).

preprint2013arXiv

Quickest Search over Brownian Channels

In this paper we resolve an open problem proposed by Lai, Poor, Xin, and Georgiadis (2011, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory). Consider a sequence of Brownian Motions with unknown drift equal to one or zero, which we may be observed one at a time. We give a procedure for finding, as quickly as possible, a process which is a Brownian Motion with nonzero drift. This original quickest search problem, in which the filtration itself is dependent on the observation strategy, is reduced to a single filtration impulse control and optimal stopping problem, which is in turn reduced to an optimal stopping problem for a reflected diffusion, which can be explicitly solved.

preprint2013arXiv

Robust maximization of asymptotic growth under covariance uncertainty

This paper resolves a question proposed in Kardaras and Robertson [Ann. Appl. Probab. 22 (2012) 1576-1610]: how to invest in a robust growth-optimal way in a market where precise knowledge of the covariance structure of the underlying assets is unavailable. Among an appropriate class of admissible covariance structures, we characterize the optimal trading strategy in terms of a generalized version of the principal eigenvalue of a fully nonlinear elliptic operator and its associated eigenfunction, by slightly restricting the collection of nondominated probability measures.

preprint2013arXiv

Stochastic Perron's method for Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations

We show that the value function of a stochastic control problem is the unique solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, completely avoiding the proof of the so-called dynamic programming principle (DPP). Using Stochastic Perron's method we construct a super-solution lying below the value function and a sub-solution dominating it. A comparison argument easily closes the proof. The program has the precise meaning of verification for viscosity-solutions, obtaining the DPP as a conclusion. It also immediately follows that the weak and strong formulations of the stochastic control problem have the same value. Using this method we also capture the possible face-lifting phenomenon in a straightforward manner.

preprint2012arXiv

Inventory Management with Partially Observed Nonstationary Demand

We consider a continuous-time model for inventory management with Markov modulated non-stationary demands. We introduce active learning by assuming that the state of the world is unobserved and must be inferred by the manager. We also assume that demands are observed only when they are completely met. We first derive the explicit filtering equations and pass to an equivalent fully observed impulse control problem in terms of the sufficient statistics, the a posteriori probability process and the current inventory level. We then solve this equivalent formulation and directly characterize an optimal inventory policy. We also describe a computational procedure to calculate the value function and the optimal policy and present two numerical illustrations.

preprint2012arXiv

Liquidation in Limit Order Books with Controlled Intensity

We consider a framework for solving optimal liquidation problems in limit order books. In particular, order arrivals are modeled as a point process whose intensity depends on the liquidation price. We set up a stochastic control problem in which the goal is to maximize the expected revenue from liquidating the entire position held. We solve this optimal liquidation problem for power-law and exponential-decay order book models and discuss several extensions. We also consider the continuous selling (or fluid) limit when the trading units are ever smaller and the intensity is ever larger. This limit provides an analytical approximation to the value function and the optimal solution. Using techniques from viscosity solutions we show that the discrete state problem and its optimal solution converge to the corresponding quantities in the continuous selling limit uniformly on compacts.

preprint2012arXiv

On Zero-Sum Stochastic Differential Games

We generalize the results of Fleming and Souganidis (1989) on zero sum stochastic differential games to the case when the controls are unbounded. We do this by proving a dynamic programming principle using a covering argument instead of relying on a discrete approximation (which is used along with a comparison principle by Fleming and Souganidis). Also, in contrast with Fleming and Souganidis, we define our pay-off through a doubly reflected backward stochastic differential equation. The value function (in the degenerate case of a single controller) is closely related to the second order doubly reflected BSDEs.

preprint2012arXiv

Outperforming the market portfolio with a given probability

Our goal is to resolve a problem proposed by Fernholz and Karatzas [On optimal arbitrage (2008) Columbia Univ.]: to characterize the minimum amount of initial capital with which an investor can beat the market portfolio with a certain probability, as a function of the market configuration and time to maturity. We show that this value function is the smallest nonnegative viscosity supersolution of a nonlinear PDE. As in Fernholz and Karatzas [On optimal arbitrage (2008) Columbia Univ.], we do not assume the existence of an equivalent local martingale measure, but merely the existence of a local martingale deflator.

preprint2012arXiv

Regularity of the Optimal Stopping Problem for Jump Diffusions

The value function of an optimal stopping problem for jump diffusions is known to be a generalized solution of a variational inequality. Assuming that the diffusion component of the process is nondegenerate and a mild assumption on the singularity of the Lévy measure, this paper shows that the value function of this optimal stopping problem on an unbounded domain with finite/infinite variation jumps is in $W^{2,1}_{p, loc}$ with $p\in(1, \infty)$. As a consequence, the smooth-fit property holds.

preprint2012arXiv

Stability of exponential utility maximization with respect to market perturbations

We investigate the continuity of expected exponential utility maximization with respect to perturbation of the Sharpe ratio of markets. By focusing only on continuity, we impose weaker regularity conditions than those found in the literature. Specifically, we require, in addition to the $V$-compactness hypothesis of Larsen and Žitković (2007) (ArXiv: 0706.0474), a local $bmo$ hypothesis, a condition which is seen to always be trivially satisfied in the setting of Larsen and Žitković (2007). For markets of the form $S = M + \int λd<M>$, these conditions are simultaneously implied by the existence of a uniform bound on the norm of $λ\cdot M$ in a suitable $bmo$ space.

preprint2012arXiv

Stochastic Perron's method and verification without smoothness using viscosity comparison: obstacle problems and Dynkin games

We adapt the Stochastic Perron's method in Bayraktar and Sirbu (ArXiv: 1103.0538) to the case of double obstacle problems associated to Dynkin games. We construct, symmetrically, a viscosity sub-solution which dominates the upper value of the game and a viscosity super-solution lying below the lower value of the game. If the double obstacle problem satisfies the viscosity comparison property, then the game has a value which is equal to the unique and continuous viscosity solution. In addition, the optimal strategies of the two players are equal to the first hitting times of the two stopping regions, as expected. The (single) obstacle problem associated to optimal stopping can be viewed as a very particular case. This is the first instance of a non-linear problem where the Stochastic Perron's method can be applied successfully.

preprint2011arXiv

Minimizing the Probability of Lifetime Ruin under Stochastic Volatility

We assume that an individual invests in a financial market with one riskless and one risky asset, with the latter's price following a diffusion with stochastic volatility. In the current financial market especially, it is important to include stochastic volatility in the risky asset's price process. Given the rate of consumption, we find the optimal investment strategy for the individual who wishes to minimize the probability of going bankrupt. To solve this minimization problem, we use techniques from stochastic optimal control.

preprint2011arXiv

On the Stability of Utility Maximization Problems

In this paper we extend the stability results of [4]}. Our utility maximization problem is defined as an essential supremum of conditional expectations of the terminal values of wealth processes, conditioned on the filtration at the stopping time $τ$. To establish our results, we extend the classical results of convex analysis to maps from $L^0$ to $L^0$. The notion of convex compactness introduced in [7] plays an important role in our analysis.

preprint2011arXiv

Quadratic Reflected BSDEs with Unbounded Obstacles

In this paper, we analyze a real-valued reflected backward stochastic differential equation (RBSDE) with an unbounded obstacle and an unbounded terminal condition when its generator $f$ has quadratic growth in the $z$-variable. In particular, we obtain existence, comparison, and stability results, and consider the optimal stopping for quadratic $g$-evaluations. As an application of our results we analyze the obstacle problem for semi-linear parabolic PDEs in which the non-linearity appears as the square of the gradient. Finally, we prove a comparison theorem for these obstacle problems when the generator is convex or concave in the $z$-variable.

preprint2011arXiv

Stochatic Perron's method and verification without smoothness using viscosity comparison: the linear case

We introduce a probabilistic version of the classical Perron's method to construct viscosity solutions to linear parabolic equations associated to stochastic differential equations. Using this method, we construct easily two viscosity (sub and super) solutions that squeeze in between the expected payoff. If a comparison result holds true, then there exists a unique viscosity solution which is a martingale along the solutions of the stochastic differential equation. The unique viscosity solution is actually equal to the expected payoff. This amounts to a verification result (Ito's Lemma) for non-smooth viscosity solutions of the linear parabolic equation. This is the first step in a larger program to prove verification for viscosity solutions and the Dynamic Programming Principle for stochastic control problems and games

preprint2011arXiv

Valuation equations for stochastic volatility models

We analyze the valuation partial differential equation for European contingent claims in a general framework of stochastic volatility models where the diffusion coefficients may grow faster than linearly and degenerate on the boundaries of the state space. We allow for various types of model behavior: the volatility process in our model can potentially reach zero and either stay there or instantaneously reflect, and the asset-price process may be a strict local martingale. Our main result is a necessary and sufficient condition on the uniqueness of classical solutions to the valuation equation: the value function is the unique nonnegative classical solution to the valuation equation among functions with at most linear growth if and only if the asset-price is a martingale.

preprint2010arXiv

Proving Regularity of the Minimal Probability of Ruin via a Game of Stopping and Control

We reveal an interesting convex duality relationship between two problems: (a) minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin when the rate of consumption is stochastic and when the individual can invest in a Black-Scholes financial market; (b) a controller-and-stopper problem, in which the controller controls the drift and volatility of a process in order to maximize a running reward based on that process, and the stopper chooses the time to stop the running reward and rewards the controller a final amount at that time. Our primary goal is to show that the minimal probability of ruin, whose stochastic representation does not have a classical form as does the utility maximization problem (i.e., the objective's dependence on the initial values of the state variables is implicit), is the unique classical solution of its Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, which is a non-linear boundary-value problem. We establish our goal by exploiting the convex duality relationship between (a) and (b).

preprint2009arXiv

Optimal Trade Execution in Illiquid Markets

We study optimal trade execution strategies in financial markets with discrete order flow. The agent has a finite liquidation horizon and must minimize price impact given a random number of incoming trade counterparties. Assuming that the order flow $N$ is given by a Poisson process, we give a full analysis of the properties and computation of the optimal dynamic execution strategy. Extensions, whereby (a) $N$ is a fully-observed regime-switching Poisson process; and (b) $N$ is a Markov-modulated compound Poisson process driven by a hidden Markov chain, are also considered. We derive and compare the properties of the three cases and illustrate our results with computational examples.