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Erhan Bayraktar

Erhan Bayraktar contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

27 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Conditional Diffusion Under Linear Constraints: Langevin Mixing and Information-Theoretic Guarantees

We study zero-shot conditional sampling with pretrained diffusion models for linear inverse problems, including inpainting and super-resolution. In these problems, the observation determines only part of the unknown signal. The remaining degrees of freedom must be sampled according to the correct conditional data distribution. Existing projection-based samplers enforce measurement consistency by correcting the observed component during reverse diffusion. However, measurement consistency alone does not determine how probability mass should be distributed along the feasible set, and this can lead to biased conditional samples. We analyze this issue through a normal--tangent decomposition of the score function. For Gaussian noising, the observed-direction score is exactly determined by the measurement; only the tangent conditional score is unknown. We prove that the error from replacing this score by the unconditional tangent score is upper bounded by a dimension-free conditional mutual information between observed and unobserved components. This gives an information-theoretic decomposition into initialization and pathwise score-mismatch errors. Motivated by the theory, we propose a projected-Langevin initialization followed by guided reverse denoising, which outperforms a strong projection-based baseline in inpainting and super-resolution experiments.

preprint2026arXiv

Convergence and turnpike properties of linear-quadratic mean field control problems with common noise

We investigate convergence and turnpike properties for linear-quadratic mean field control problems with common noise. Within a unified framework, we analyze a finite-horizon social optimization problem, its mean field control limit, and the corresponding ergodic mean field control problem. The finite-horizon problems are characterized by coupled Riccati differential equations, whereas the ergodic problem is addressed via a Bellman equation on the Wasserstein space, which reduces to a system of stabilizing algebraic Riccati equations. By deriving estimates for these Riccati systems, we establish a turnpike property for the finite-horizon mean field control problem and obtain quantitative convergence results from the social optimization problem to its mean field limit and the associated ergodic control problem.

preprint2026arXiv

When Diffusion Model Can Ignore Dimension: An Entropy-Based Theory

Diffusion models perform remarkably well on high-dimensional data such as images, often using only a modest number of reverse-time steps. Despite this practical success, existing convergence theory does not fully explain why such samplers remain efficient in high dimensions. Many prior KL guarantees bound the discretization error in terms of the ambient dimension, while other improved results replace this dependence using intrinsic-dimensional or geometric structure assumptions. In this work, we develop an alternative information-theoretic perspective on diffusion sampler convergence. We prove that, for Gaussian mixture targets, the discretization error is controlled by the Shannon entropy of the latent mixture component rather than by the ambient dimension. Consequently, the leading step complexity scales linearly with latent entropy and depends only logarithmically on the second moment of the data. Our analysis also extends to discrete target distributions, where the relevant complexity is the entropy of the target rather than the dimension of the embedding space. These results suggest that diffusion sampling can remain efficient in high-dimensional spaces when the data distribution admits a compact latent representation, as is widely believed to be the case for natural images.

preprint2022arXiv

$K_{r,s}$ graph bootstrap percolation

A graph $G$ percolates in the $K_{r,s}$-bootstrap process if we can add all missing edges of $G$ in some order such that each edge creates a new copy of $K_{r,s}$, where $K_{r,s}$ is the complete bipartite graph. We study $K_{r,s}$-bootstrap percolation on the Erdős-Rényi random graph, and determine the percolation threshold for balanced $K_{r,s}$ up to a logarithmic factor. This partially answers a question raised by Balogh, Bollobás, and Morris. We also establish a general lower bound of the percolation threshold for all $K_{r,s}$, with $r\geq s \geq 3$.

preprint2022arXiv

A PDE approach for regret bounds under partial monitoring

In this paper, we study a learning problem in which a forecaster only observes partial information. By properly rescaling the problem, we heuristically derive a limiting PDE on Wasserstein space which characterizes the asymptotic behavior of the regret of the forecaster. Using a verification type argument, we show that the problem of obtaining regret bounds and efficient algorithms can be tackled by finding appropriate smooth sub/supersolutions of this parabolic PDE.

preprint2022arXiv

A potential-based construction of the increasing supermartingale coupling

The increasing supermartingale coupling, introduced by Nutz and Stebegg (Canonical supermartingale couplings, Annals of Probability, 46(6):3351--3398, 2018) is an extreme point of the set of `supermartingale' couplings between two real probability measures in convex-decreasing order. In the present paper we provide an explicit construction of a triple of functions, on the graph of which the increasing supermartingale coupling concentrates. In particular, we show that the increasing supermartingale coupling can be identified with the left-curtain martingale coupling and the antitone coupling to the left and to the right of a uniquely determined regime-switching point, respectively. Our construction is based on the concept of the shadow measure. We show how to determine the potential of the shadow measure associated to a supermartingale, extending the recent results of Beiglböck et al. (The potential of the shadow measure, Electron. Commun. Probab., 27, paper no. 16, 1--12, 2022) obtained in the martingale setting.

preprint2022arXiv

Concentration of measure for Graphon particle system

We study heterogeneously interacting diffusive particle systems with mean-field type interaction characterized by an underlying graphon and their finite particle approximations. Under suitable conditions, we obtain exponential concentration estimates over a finite time horizon for both 1 and 2 Wasserstein distances between the empirical measures of the finite particle systems and the averaged law of the graphon system, extending the work of Bayraktar-Wu.

preprint2022arXiv

Data-Driven Nonparametric Robust Control under Dependence Uncertainty

We consider a multi-period stochastic control problem where the multivariate driving stochastic factor of the system has known marginal distributions but uncertain dependence structure. To solve the problem, we propose to implement the nonparametric adaptive robust control framework. We aim to find the optimal control against the worst-case copulae in a sequence of shrinking uncertainty sets which are generated from continuously observing the data. Then, we use a stochastic gradient descent ascent algorithm to numerically handle the corresponding high dimensional dynamic inf-sup optimization problem. We present the numerical results in the context of utility maximization and show that the controller benefits from knowing more information about the uncertain model.

preprint2022arXiv

K-core in percolated dense graph sequences

We determine the size of $k$-core in a large class of dense graph sequences. Let $G_n$ be a sequence of undirected, $n$-vertex graphs with edge weights $\{a^n_{i,j}\}_{i,j \in [n]}$ that converges to a kernel $W:[0,1]^2\to [0,+\infty)$ in the cut metric. Keeping an edge $(i,j)$ of $G_n$ with probability $\min \{ {a^n_{i,j}}/{n},1 \}$ independently, we obtain a sequence of random graphs $G_n(\frac{1}{n})$. Denote by $\mathcal{A}$ the property of a branching process that the initial particle has at least $k$ children, each of which has at least $k-1$ children, each of which has at least $k-1$ children, and so on. Using branching process and the theory of dense graph limits, under mild assumptions we obtain the size of $k$-core of random graphs $G_n(\frac{1}{n})$, \begin{align*} \text{size of $k$-core of } G_n\left(\frac{1}{n}\right) =n \mathbb{P}_{X^W}\left(\mathcal{A}\right) +o_p(n). \end{align*} Our result can also be used to obtain the threshold of appearance of a $k$-core of order $n$.

preprint2022arXiv

Nonparametric Adaptive Robust Control Under Model Uncertainty

We consider a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. Such uncertainty not only comes from the fact that the true probability law of the underlying stochastic process is unknown, but the parametric family of probability distributions which the true law belongs to is also unknown. We propose a nonparametric adaptive robust control methodology to deal with such problem. Our approach hinges on the following building concepts: first, using the adaptive robust paradigm to incorporate online learning and uncertainty reduction into the robust control problem; second, learning the unknown probability law through the empirical distribution, and representing uncertainty reduction in terms of a sequence of Wasserstein balls around the empirical distribution; third, using Lagrangian duality to convert the optimization over Wasserstein balls to a scalar optimization problem, and adopting a machine learning technique to achieve efficient computation of the optimal control. We illustrate our methodology by considering a utility maximization problem. Numerical comparisons show that the nonparametric adaptive robust control approach is preferable to the traditional robust frameworks.

preprint2022arXiv

Path-dependent Hamilton-Jacobi equations with super-quadratic growth in the gradient and the vanishing viscosity method

The non-exponential Schilder-type theorem in Backhoff-Veraguas, Lacker and Tangpi [Ann. Appl. Probab., 30 (2020), pp. 1321-1367] is expressed as a convergence result for path-dependent partial differential equations with appropriate notions of generalized solutions. This entails a non-Markovian counterpart to the vanishing viscosity method. We show uniqueness of maximal subsolutions for path-dependent viscous Hamilton-Jacobi equations related to convex super-quadratic backward stochastic differential equations. We establish well-posedness for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation associated to a Bolza problem of the calculus of variations with path-dependent terminal cost. In particular, uniqueness among lower semi-continuous solutions holds and state constraints are admitted.

preprint2022arXiv

Propagation of Chaos of Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Graphon Interactions

In this paper, we study graphon mean field games using a system of forward-backward stochastic differential equations. We establish the existence and uniqueness of solutions under two different assumptions and prove the stability with respect to the interacting graphons which are necessary to show propagation of chaos results. As an application of propagation of chaos, we prove the convergence of n-player game Nash equilibrium for a general model, which is new in the theory of graphon mean field games.

preprint2022arXiv

Stability of Equilibria in Time-inconsistent Stopping Problems

We investigate the stability of equilibrium-induced optimal values with respect to (w.r.t.) reward functions $f$ and transition kernels $Q$ for time-inconsistent stopping problems under nonexponential discounting in discrete time. First, with locally uniform convergence of $f$ and $Q$ equipped with total variation distance, we show that the optimal value is semi-continuous w.r.t. $(f,Q)$. We provide examples showing that continuity may fail in general, and the convergence for $Q$ in total variation cannot be replaced by weak convergence. Next we show that with the uniform convergence of $f$ and $Q$, the optimal value is continuous w.r.t. $(f,Q)$ when we consider a relaxed limit over $\varepsilon$-equilibria. We also provide an example showing that for such continuity the uniform convergence of $(f,Q)$ cannot be replaced by locally uniform convergence.

preprint2022arXiv

Supermartingale Brenier's Theorem with full-marginals constraint

We explicitly construct the supermartingale version of the Fr{é}chet-Hoeffding coupling in the setting with infinitely many marginal constraints. This extends the results of Henry-Labordere et al. obtained in the martingale setting. Our construction is based on the Markovian iteration of one-period optimal supermartingale couplings. In the limit, as the number of iterations goes to infinity, we obtain a pure jump process that belongs to a family of local L{é}vy models introduced by Carr et al. We show that the constructed processes solve the continuous-time supermartingale optimal transport problem for a particular family of path-dependent cost functions. The explicit computations are provided in the following three cases: the uniform case, the Bachelier model and the Geometric Brownian Motion case.

preprint2021arXiv

Finite state Mean Field Games with Wright-Fisher common noise

We force uniqueness in finite state mean field games by adding a Wright-Fisher common noise. We achieve this by analyzing the master equation of this game, which is a degenerate parabolic second-order partial differential equation set on the simplex whose characteristics solve the stochastic forward-backward system associated with the mean field game; see Cardaliaguet et al. (2019). We show that this equation, which is a non-linear version of the Kimura type equation studied in Epstein and Mazzeo (2013), has a unique smooth solution whenever the normal component of the drift at the boundary is strong enough. Among others, this requires a priori estimates of Hölder type for the corresponding Kimura operator when the drift therein is merely continuous.

preprint2021arXiv

Optimal Investment and Consumption under a Habit-Formation Constraint

We formulate an infinite-horizon optimal investment and consumption problem, in which an individual forms a habit based on the exponentially weighted average of her past consumption rate, and in which she invests in a Black-Scholes market. The individual is constrained to consume at a rate higher than a certain proportion $α$ of her consumption habit. Our habit-formation model allows for both addictive ($α=1$) and nonaddictive ($0<α<1$) habits. The optimal investment and consumption policies are derived explicitly in terms of the solution of a system of differential equations with free boundaries, which is analyzed in detail. If the wealth-to-habit ratio is below (resp. above) a critical level $x^*$, the individual consumes at (resp. above) the minimum rate and invests more (resp. less) aggressively in the risky asset. Numerical results show that the addictive habit formation requires significantly more wealth to support the same consumption rate compared to a moderately nonaddictive habit. Furthermore, an individual with a more addictive habit invests less in the risky asset compared to an individual with a less addictive habit but with the same wealth-to-habit ratio and risk aversion, which provides an explanation for the equity-premium puzzle.

preprint2021arXiv

Prediction against a limited adversary

We study the problem of prediction with expert advice with adversarial corruption where the adversary can at most corrupt one expert. Using tools from viscosity theory, we characterize the long-time behavior of the value function of the game between the forecaster and the adversary. We provide lower and upper bounds for the growth rate of regret without relying on a comparison result. We show that depending on the description of regret, the limiting behavior of the game can significantly differ.

preprint2020arXiv

A Macroeconomic SIR Model for COVID-19

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country&#39;s public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the impacts of a disease outbreak are therefore extremely useful for policymakers seeking to evaluate the best course of action in such a crisis. We develop an SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic that explicitly considers herd immunity, behavior-dependent transmission rates, remote workers, and indirect externalities of lockdown. This model is presented as an exit time control problem where lockdown ends when the population achieves herd immunity, either naturally or via a vaccine. A social planner prescribes separate levels of lockdown for two separate sections of the adult population: low-risk (ages 20-64) and high-risk (ages 65 and over). These levels are determined via optimization of an objective function which assigns a macroeconomic cost to the level of lockdown and the number of deaths. We find that, by ending lockdowns once herd immunity is reached, high-risk individuals are able to leave lockdown significantly before the arrival of a vaccine without causing large increases in mortality. Moreover, if we incorporate a behavior-dependent transmission rate which represents increased personal caution in response to increased infection levels, both output loss and total mortality are lowered. Lockdown efficacy is further increased when there is less interaction between low- and high-risk individuals, and increased remote work decreases output losses. Overall, our model predicts that a lockdown which ends at the arrival of herd immunity, combined with individual actions to slow virus transmission, can reduce total mortality to one-third of the no-lockdown level, while allowing high-risk individuals to leave lockdown well before vaccine arrival.

preprint2020arXiv

Asymptotics for Small Nonlinear Price Impact: a PDE Approach to the Multidimensional Case

We provide an asymptotic expansion of the value function of a multidimensional utility maximization problem from consumption with small non-linear price impact. In our model cross-impacts between assets are allowed. In the limit for small price impact, we determine the asymptotic expansion of the value function around its frictionless version. The leading order correction is characterized by a nonlinear second order PDE related to an ergodic control problem and a linear parabolic PDE. We illustrate our result on a multivariate geometric Brownian motion price model.

preprint2020arXiv

Continuity of Utility Maximization under Weak Convergence

In this paper we find tight sufficient conditions for the continuity of the value of the utility maximization problem from terminal wealth with respect to the convergence in distribution of the underlying processes. We also establish a weak convergence result for the terminal wealths of the optimal portfolios. Finally, we apply our results to the computation of the minimal expected shortfall (shortfall risk) in the Heston model by building an appropriate lattice approximation.

preprint2020arXiv

Extended Weak Convergence and Utility Maximization with Proportional Transaction Costs

In this paper we study utility maximization with proportional transaction costs. Assuming extended weak convergence of the underlying processes we prove the convergence of the corresponding utility maximization problems. Moreover, we establish a limit theorem for the optimal trading strategies. The proofs are based on the extended weak convergence theory developed in [1] and the Meyer--Zheng topology introduced in [24].

preprint2020arXiv

Malicious Experts versus the multiplicative weights algorithm in online prediction

We consider a prediction problem with two experts and a forecaster. We assume that one of the experts is honest and makes correct prediction with probability $μ$ at each round. The other one is malicious, who knows true outcomes at each round and makes predictions in order to maximize the loss of the forecaster. Assuming the forecaster adopts the classical multiplicative weights algorithm, we find upper and lower bounds for the value function of the malicious expert. Our results imply that the multiplicative weights algorithm cannot resist the corruption of malicious experts. We also show that an adaptive multiplicative weights algorithm is asymptotically optimal for the forecaster, and hence more resistant to the corruption of malicious experts.

preprint2020arXiv

On non-uniqueness in mean field games

We analyze an $N+1$-player game and the corresponding mean field game with state space $\{0,1\}$. The transition rate of $j$-th player is the sum of his control $α^j$ plus a minimum jumping rate $η$. Instead of working under monotonicity conditions, here we consider an anti-monotone running cost. We show that the mean field game equation may have multiple solutions if $η< \frac{1}{2}$. We also prove that that although multiple solutions exist, only the one coming from the entropy solution is charged (when $η=0$), and therefore resolve a conjecture of ArXiv: 1903.05788.

preprint2020arXiv

On the adversarial robustness of robust estimators

Motivated by recent data analytics applications, we study the adversarial robustness of robust estimators. Instead of assuming that only a fraction of the data points are outliers as considered in the classic robust estimation setup, in this paper, we consider an adversarial setup in which an attacker can observe the whole dataset and can modify all data samples in an adversarial manner so as to maximize the estimation error caused by his attack. We characterize the attacker&#39;s optimal attack strategy, and further introduce adversarial influence function (AIF) to quantify an estimator&#39;s sensitivity to such adversarial attacks. We provide an approach to characterize AIF for any given robust estimator, and then design optimal estimator that minimizes AIF, which implies it is least sensitive to adversarial attacks and hence is most robust against adversarial attacks. From this characterization, we identify a tradeoff between AIF (i.e., robustness against adversarial attack) and influence function, a quantity used in classic robust estimators to measure robustness against outliers, and design estimators that strike a desirable tradeoff between these two quantities.

preprint2020arXiv

On the asymptotic optimality of the comb strategy for prediction with expert advice

For the problem of prediction with expert advice in the adversarial setting with geometric stopping, we compute the exact leading order expansion for the long time behavior of the value function. Then, we use this expansion to prove that as conjectured in Gravin et al. [12], the comb strategies are indeed asymptotically optimal for the adversary in the case of 4 experts.

preprint2020arXiv

Terminal Ranking Games

We analyze a mean field tournament: a mean field game in which the agents receive rewards according to the ranking of the terminal value of their projects and are subject to cost of effort. Using Schrödinger bridges we are able to explicitly calculate the equilibrium. This allows us to identify the reward functions which would yield a desired equilibrium and solve several related mechanism design problems. We are also able to identify the effect of reward inequality on the players&#39; welfare as well as calculate the price of anarchy.

preprint2020arXiv

Transport plans with domain constraints

This paper focuses on martingale optimal transport problems when the martingales are assumed to have bounded quadratic variation. First, we give a result that characterizes the existence of a probability measure satisfying some convex transport constraints in addition to having given initial and terminal marginals. Several applications are provided: martingale measures with volatility uncertainty, optimal transport with capacity constraints, and Skorokhod embedding with bounded times. Next, we extend this result to multi-marginal constraints. Finally, we consider an optimal transport problem with constraints and obtain its Kantorovich duality. A corollary of this result is a monotonicity principle which gives a geometric way of identifying the optimizer.