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preprint2015arXiv

On stochastic comparisons of largest order statistics in the scale model

Let $X_{λ_{1}},X_{λ_{2}},\ldots ,X_{λ_{n}}$ be independent nonnegative random variables with $X_{λ_{i}}\sim F(λ_{i}t)$, $i=1,\ldots ,n$, where $λ_{i}>0$, $i=1,\ldots ,n$ and $F$ is an absolutely continuous distribution. It is shown that, under some conditions, one largest order statistic $X_{n:n}^{λ}$ is smaller than another one $X_{n:n}^{θ}$ according to likelihood ratio ordering. Furthermore, we apply these results when $F$ is a generalized gamma distribution which includes Weibull, gamma and exponential random variables as special cases.

preprint2014arXiv

Stochastic order relations among parallel systems from Weibull distributions

In this article, we focus on stochastic orders to compare the magnitudes of two parallel systems from Weibull distributions when one set of scale parameters majorizes the other. The new results obtained here extend some of those proved by Dykstra et al. (1997) and Joo and Mi (2010) from exponential to Weibull distributions. Also, we present some results for parallel systems from multiple-outlier Weibull models.

preprint2010arXiv

Statistical topology via Morse theory, persistence and nonparametric estimation

In this paper we examine the use of topological methods for multivariate statistics. Using persistent homology from computational algebraic topology, a random sample is used to construct estimators of persistent homology. This estimation procedure can then be evaluated using the bottleneck distance between the estimated persistent homology and the true persistent homology. The connection to statistics comes from the fact that when viewed as a nonparametric regression problem, the bottleneck distance is bounded by the sup-norm loss. Consequently, a sharp asymptotic minimax bound is determined under the sup-norm risk over Holder classes of functions for the nonparametric regression problem on manifolds. This provides good convergence properties for the persistent homology estimator in terms of the expected bottleneck distance.

preprint2012arXiv

On the existence of non-central Wishart distributions

This paper deals with the existence issue of non-central Wishart distributions which is a research topic initiated by Wishart (1928), and with important contributions by e.g., Lévy (1937), Gindikin (1975), Shanbhag (1988), Peddada and Richards (1991). We present a new method involving the theory of affine Markov processes, which reveals joint necessary conditions on shape and non-centrality parameter. While Eaton's conjecture concerning the necessary range of the shape parameter is confirmed, we also observe that it is not sufficient anymore that it only belongs to the Gindikin ensemble, as is in the central case.

preprint2007arXiv

A statistical approach to persistent homology

Assume that a finite set of points is randomly sampled from a subspace of a metric space. Recent advances in computational topology have provided several approaches to recovering the geometric and topological properties of the underlying space. In this paper we take a statistical approach to this problem. We assume that the data is randomly sampled from an unknown probability distribution. We define two filtered complexes with which we can calculate the persistent homology of a probability distribution. Using statistical estimators for samples from certain families of distributions, we show that we can recover the persistent homology of the underlying distribution.

preprint2012arXiv

When is a Riesz distribution a complex measure?

Let R_αbe the Riesz distribution on a simple Euclidean Jordan algebra, parametrized by the complex number α. I give an elementary proof of the necessary and sufficient condition for R_αto be a locally finite complex measure (= complex Radon measure).

preprint2012arXiv

Wishart Processes and Wishart Distributions: An Affine Processes Point of View

These lecture notes provide an introduction to the theory of Wishart distributions and Wishart processes, particularly what concerns their existence and their realizations as solutions of Wishart SDEs. The material is based on recent developments in the theory of affine processes and related fields.

preprint2017arXiv

The Local Fractional Bootstrap

We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high-frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an estimator based on a ratio of realized power variations. Our new resampling method, the local fractional bootstrap, relies on simulating an auxiliary fractional Brownian motion that mimics the fine properties of high frequency differences of the Brownian semistationary process under the null hypothesis. We prove the first order validity of the bootstrap method and in simulations we observe that the bootstrap-based hypothesis test provides considerable finite-sample improvements over an existing test that is based on a central limit theorem. This is important when studying the roughness properties of time series data; we illustrate this by applying the bootstrap method to two empirical data sets: we assess the roughness of a time series of high-frequency asset prices and we test the validity of Kolmogorov's scaling law in atmospheric turbulence data.

preprint2018arXiv

Statistical inference for heavy tailed series with extremal independence

We consider stationary time series $\{X_j, j \in Z\} whose finite dimensional distributions are regularly varying with extremal independence. We assume that for each $h \geq 1$, conditionally on $X_0$ to exceed a threshold tending to infinity, the conditional distribution of $X_h$ suitably normalized converges weakly to a non degenerate distribution. We consider in this paper the estimation of the normalization and of the limiting distribution.

preprint2016arXiv

A general framework for locating hyperplanes to fitting set of points

This paper presents a family of new methods for locating/fitting hyperplanes with respect to a given set of points. We introduce a general framework for a family of aggregation criteria of different distance-based errors. The most popular methods found in the specialized literature can be cast within this family as particular choices of the errors and the aggregation criteria. Mathematical programming formulations for these methods are stated and some interesting cases are analyzed. It is also proposed a new goodness of fitting index which extends the classical coefficient of determination. A series of illustrative examples and extensive computational experiments implemented in R are provided to show the performances of some of the proposed methods.

preprint2019arXiv

Breaking Bivariate Records

We establish a fundamental property of bivariate Pareto records for independent observations uniformly distributed in the unit square. We prove that the asymptotic conditional distribution of the number of records broken by an observation given that the observation sets a record is Geometric with parameter 1/2.

preprint2018arXiv

An extension of Heston's SV model to Stochastic Interest Rates

In 'A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options', Heston proposes a Stochastic Volatility (SV) model with constant interest rate and derives a semi-explicit valuation formula. Heston also describes, in general terms, how the model could be extended to incorporate Stochastic Interest Rates (SIR). This paper is devoted to the construction of an extension of Heston's SV model with a particular stochastic bond model which, just increasing in one the number of parameters, allows to incorporate SIR and to derive a semi-explicit formula for option pricing.

preprint2018arXiv

Robust Estimation of Data-Dependent Causal Effects based on Observing a Single Time-Series

Consider the case that one observes a single time-series, where at each time t one observes a data record O(t) involving treatment nodes A(t), possible covariates L(t) and an outcome node Y(t). The data record at time t carries information for an (potentially causal) effect of the treatment A(t) on the outcome Y(t), in the context defined by a fixed dimensional summary measure Co(t). We are concerned with defining causal effects that can be consistently estimated, with valid inference, for sequentially randomized experiments without further assumptions. More generally, we consider the case when the (possibly causal) effects can be estimated in a double robust manner, analogue to double robust estimation of effects in the i.i.d. causal inference literature. We propose a general class of averages of conditional (context-specific) causal parameters that can be estimated in a double robust manner, therefore fully utilizing the sequential randomization. We propose a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) of these causal parameters, and present a general theorem establishing the asymptotic consistency and normality of the TMLE. We extend our general framework to a number of typically studied causal target parameters, including a sequentially adaptive design within a single unit that learns the optimal treatment rule for the unit over time. Our work opens up robust statistical inference for causal questions based on observing a single time-series on a particular unit.

preprint2019arXiv

Fixed point characterizations of continuous univariate probability distributions and their applications

By extrapolating the explicit formula of the zero-bias distribution occurring in the context of Stein's method, we construct characterization identities for a large class of absolutely continuous univariate distributions. Instead of trying to derive characterizing distributional transformations that inherit certain structures for the use in further theoretic endeavours, we focus on explicit representations given through a formula for the density- or distribution function. The results we establish with this ambition feature immediate applications in the area of goodness-of-fit testing. We draw up a blueprint for the construction of tests of fit that include procedures for many distributions for which little (if any) practicable tests are known. To illustrate this last point, we construct a test for the Burr Type XII distribution for which, to our knowledge, not a single test is known aside from the classical universal procedures.

preprint2019arXiv

Dynamic tail inference with log-Laplace volatility

We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace stochastic volatility. In contrast to other, similar stochastic volatility formalisms, this process has analytic expressions for its conditional probabilistic structure that enable straightforward estimation of dynamically changing extreme event probabilities. The process and volatility are conditionally Pareto-tailed, with tail exponent given by the reciprocal of the log-volatility's mean absolute innovation. This formalism can accommodate a wide variety of nonlinear dependence, as well as conditional power law-tail behavior ranging from weakly non-Gaussian to Cauchy-like tails. We provide a computationally straightforward estimation procedure that uses an asymptotic approximation of the process' dynamic large deviation probabilities. We demonstrate the estimator's utility with a simulation study. We then show the method's predictive capabilities on a simulated nonlinear time series where the volatility is driven by the chaotic Lorenz system. Lastly we provide an empirical application, which shows that this simple modeling method can be effectively used for dynamic and predictive tail inference in financial time series.

preprint2019arXiv

Deep Neural Networks for Estimation and Inference

We study deep neural networks and their use in semiparametric inference. We establish novel rates of convergence for deep feedforward neural nets. Our new rates are sufficiently fast (in some cases minimax optimal) to allow us to establish valid second-step inference after first-step estimation with deep learning, a result also new to the literature. Our estimation rates and semiparametric inference results handle the current standard architecture: fully connected feedforward neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons), with the now-common rectified linear unit activation function and a depth explicitly diverging with the sample size. We discuss other architectures as well, including fixed-width, very deep networks. We establish nonasymptotic bounds for these deep nets for a general class of nonparametric regression-type loss functions, which includes as special cases least squares, logistic regression, and other generalized linear models. We then apply our theory to develop semiparametric inference, focusing on causal parameters for concreteness, such as treatment effects, expected welfare, and decomposition effects. Inference in many other semiparametric contexts can be readily obtained. We demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning with a Monte Carlo analysis and an empirical application to direct mail marketing.

preprint2019arXiv

Towards a Complete Picture of Stationary Covariance Functions on Spheres Cross Time

With the advent of wide-spread global and continental-scale spatiotemporal datasets, increased attention has been given to covariance functions on spheres over time. This paper provides results for stationary covariance functions of random fields defined over $d$-dimensional spheres cross time. Specifically, we provide a bridge between the characterization in \cite{berg-porcu} for covariance functions on spheres cross time and Gneiting's lemma \citep{gneiting2002} that deals with planar surfaces. We then prove that there is a valid class of covariance functions similar in form to the Gneiting class of space-time covariance functions \citep{gneiting2002} that replaces the squared Euclidean distance with the great circle distance. Notably, the provided class is shown to be positive definite on every $d$-dimensional sphere cross time, while the Gneiting class is positive definite over $\R^d \times \R$ for fixed $d$ only. In this context, we illustrate the value of our adapted Gneiting class by comparing examples from this class to currently established nonseparable covariance classes using out-of-sample predictive criteria. These comparisons are carried out on two climate reanalysis datasets from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research. For these datasets, we show that examples from our covariance class have better predictive performance than competing models.

preprint2019arXiv

Oracle inequalities for square root analysis estimators with application to total variation penalties

Through the direct study of the analysis estimator we derive oracle inequalities with fast and slow rates by adapting the arguments involving projections by Dalalyan, Hebiri and Lederer (2017). We then extend the theory to the square root analysis estimator. Finally, we focus on (square root) total variation regularized estimators on graphs and obtain constant-friendly rates, which, up to log-terms, match previous results obtained by entropy calculations. We also obtain an oracle inequality for the (square root) total variation regularized estimator over the cycle graph.

preprint2019arXiv

Simultaneous high-probability bounds on the false discovery proportion in structured, regression, and online settings

While traditional multiple testing procedures prohibit adaptive analysis choices made by users, Goeman and Solari (2011) proposed a simultaneous inference framework that allows users such flexibility while preserving high-probability bounds on the false discovery proportion (FDP) of the chosen set. In this paper, we propose a new class of such simultaneous FDP bounds, tailored for nested sequences of rejection sets. While most existing simultaneous FDP bounds are based on closed testing using global null tests based on sorted p-values, we additionally consider the setting where side information can be leveraged to boost power, the variable selection setting where knockoff statistics can be used to order variables, and the online setting where decisions about rejections must be made as data arrives. Our finite-sample, closed form bounds are based on repurposing the FDP estimates from false discovery rate (FDR) controlling procedures designed for each of the above settings. These results establish a novel connection between the parallel literatures of simultaneous FDP bounds and FDR control methods, and use proof techniques employing martingales and filtrations that are new to both these literatures. We demonstrate the utility of our results by augmenting a recent knockoffs analysis of the UK Biobank dataset.

preprint2020arXiv

A Model of Distributed Disorders Detection

The paper deals with disorders detection in the multivariate stochastic process. We consider the multidimensional Poisson process or the multivariate renewal process. This class of processes can be used as a description of the distributed detection system. The multivariate renewal process can be seen as the sequence of random vectors, where parts of its coordinates are holding times, others are the size of jumps and the index of stream, at which the new event appears. It is assumed that at each stream two kinds of changes are possible: in the holding time or in the size of jumps distribution. The various specific mutual relations between the change points are possible. The aim of the research is to derive the detectors which realize the optimal value of the specified criterion. The change point moment estimates have been obtained in some cases. The difficulties have appeared for the dependent streams with unspecified order of change points. The presented results suggest further research on the construction of detectors in the general model.

preprint2020arXiv

Sparse Structures for Multivariate Extremes

Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets are still scarce. Appropriate notions of sparsity and connections to other fields such as machine learning, graphical models and high-dimensional statistics have only recently been established. This article reviews the new domain of research concerned with the detection and modeling of sparse patterns in rare events. We first describe the different forms of extremal dependence that can arise between the largest observations of a multivariate random vector. We then discuss the current research topics including clustering, principal component analysis and graphical modeling for extremes. Identification of groups of variables which can be concomitantly extreme is also addressed. The methods are illustrated with an application to flood risk assessment.

preprint2020arXiv

Sparse Methods for Automatic Relevance Determination

This work considers methods for imposing sparsity in Bayesian regression with applications in nonlinear system identification. We first review automatic relevance determination (ARD) and analytically demonstrate the need to additional regularization or thresholding to achieve sparse models. We then discuss two classes of methods, regularization based and thresholding based, which build on ARD to learn parsimonious solutions to linear problems. In the case of orthogonal covariates, we analytically demonstrate favorable performance with regards to learning a small set of active terms in a linear system with a sparse solution. Several example problems are presented to compare the set of proposed methods in terms of advantages and limitations to ARD in bases with hundreds of elements. The aim of this paper is to analyze and understand the assumptions that lead to several algorithms and to provide theoretical and empirical results so that the reader may gain insight and make more informed choices regarding sparse Bayesian regression.

preprint2020arXiv

Estimating Differential Latent Variable Graphical Models with Applications to Brain Connectivity

Differential graphical models are designed to represent the difference between the conditional dependence structures of two groups, thus are of particular interest for scientific investigation. Motivated by modern applications, this manuscript considers an extended setting where each group is generated by a latent variable Gaussian graphical model. Due to the existence of latent factors, the differential network is decomposed into sparse and low-rank components, both of which are symmetric indefinite matrices. We estimate these two components simultaneously using a two-stage procedure: (i) an initialization stage, which computes a simple, consistent estimator, and (ii) a convergence stage, implemented using a projected alternating gradient descent algorithm applied to a nonconvex objective, initialized using the output of the first stage. We prove that given the initialization, the estimator converges linearly with a nontrivial, minimax optimal statistical error. Experiments on synthetic and real data illustrate that the proposed nonconvex procedure outperforms existing methods.

preprint2020arXiv

Fraudulent White Noise: Flat power spectra belie arbitrarily complex processes

Power spectral densities are a common, convenient, and powerful way to analyze signals. So much so that they are now broadly deployed across the sciences and engineering---from quantum physics to cosmology, and from crystallography to neuroscience to speech recognition. The features they reveal not only identify prominent signal-frequencies but also hint at mechanisms that generate correlation and lead to resonance. Despite their near-centuries-long run of successes in signal analysis, here we show that flat power spectra can be generated by highly complex processes, effectively hiding all inherent structure in complex signals. Historically, this circumstance has been widely misinterpreted, being taken as the renowned signature of "structureless" white noise---the benchmark of randomness. We argue, in contrast, to the extent that most real-world complex systems exhibit correlations beyond pairwise statistics their structures evade power spectra and other pairwise statistical measures. As concrete physical examples, we demonstrate that fraudulent white noise hides the predictable structure of both entangled quantum systems and chaotic crystals. To make these words of warning operational, we present constructive results that explore how this situation comes about and the high toll it takes in understanding complex mechanisms. First, we give the closed-form solution for the power spectrum of a very broad class of structurally-complex signal generators. Second, we demonstrate the close relationship between eigen-spectra of evolution operators and power spectra. Third, we characterize the minimal generative structure implied by any power spectrum. Fourth, we show how to construct arbitrarily complex processes with flat power spectra. Finally, leveraging this diagnosis of the problem, we point the way to developing more incisive tools for discovering structure in complex signals.