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Researcher profile

Anthony Aguirre

Anthony Aguirre contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
astro-ph.COgr-qcquant-phcond-mat.quant-gascond-mat.stat-mechcs.CYhep-thArtificial Intelligencenlin.CDphysics.class-ph

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Published work

12 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Are we Doomed to an AI Race? Why Self-Interest Could Drive Countries Towards a Moratorium on Superintelligence

This paper uses game theory to argue that, contrary to the prevailing view, a moratorium on Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) can be in a state's self-interest. By formalizing trategic interactions between geopolitical superpowers, we model the trade-off between the benefits of technological supremacy and the catastrophic risks of uncontrolled ASI. The analysis reveals that as the perceived cost of loss of control increases sufficiently relative to other parameters, it becomes in each state's self-interest to impose a moratorium. We further provide empirical evidence suggesting that the global perception of ASI risk is rising, making a stable, rational moratorium increasingly plausible in the current geopolitical landscape.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

State-to-State Cosmology: a new view on the cosmological arrow of time and the past hypothesis

Cosmological boundary conditions for particles and fields are often discussed as a Cauchy problem, in which configurations and conjugate momenta are specified on an "initial" time slice. But this is not the only way to specify boundary conditions, and indeed in action-principle formulations we often specify configurations at two times and consider trajectories joining them. Here, we consider a classical system of particles interacting with short range two body interactions, with boundary conditions on the particles' positions for an initial and a final time. For a large number of particles that are randomly arranged into a dilute gas, we find that a typical system trajectory will spontaneously collapse into a small region of space, close to the maximum density that is obtainable, before expanding out again. If generalizable, this has important implications for the cosmological arrow of time, potentially allowing a scenario in which both boundary conditions are generic and also a low-entropy state "initial" state of the universe naturally occurs.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

AI loyalty: A New Paradigm for Aligning Stakeholder Interests

When we consult with a doctor, lawyer, or financial advisor, we generally assume that they are acting in our best interests. But what should we assume when it is an artificial intelligence (AI) system that is acting on our behalf? Early examples of AI assistants like Alexa, Siri, Google, and Cortana already serve as a key interface between consumers and information on the web, and users routinely rely upon AI-driven systems like these to take automated actions or provide information. Superficially, such systems may appear to be acting according to user interests. However, many AI systems are designed with embedded conflicts of interests, acting in ways that subtly benefit their creators (or funders) at the expense of users. To address this problem, in this paper we introduce the concept of AI loyalty. AI systems are loyal to the degree that they are designed to minimize, and make transparent, conflicts of interest, and to act in ways that prioritize the interests of users. Properly designed, such systems could have considerable functional and competitive - not to mention ethical - advantages relative to those that do not. Loyal AI products hold an obvious appeal for the end-user and could serve to promote the alignment of the long-term interests of AI developers and customers. To this end, we suggest criteria for assessing whether an AI system is sufficiently transparent about conflicts of interest, and acting in a manner that is loyal to the user, and argue that AI loyalty should be considered during the technological design process alongside other important values in AI ethics such as fairness, accountability privacy, and equity. We discuss a range of mechanisms, from pure market forces to strong regulatory frameworks, that could support incorporation of AI loyalty into a variety of future AI systems.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Classical dynamical coarse-grained entropy and comparison with the quantum version

We develop the framework of classical Observational entropy, which is a mathematically rigorous and precise framework for non-equilibrium thermodynamics, explicitly defined in terms of a set of observables. Observational entropy can be seen as a generalization of Boltzmann entropy to systems with indeterminate initial conditions, and describes the knowledge achievable about the system by a macroscopic observer with limited measurement capabilities; it becomes Gibbs entropy in the limit of perfectly fine-grained measurements. This quantity, while previously mentioned in the literature, has been investigated in detail only in the quantum case. We describe this framework reasonably pedagogically, then show that in this framework, certain choices of coarse-graining lead to an entropy that is well-defined out of equilibrium, additive on independent systems, and that grows towards thermodynamic entropy as the system reaches equilibrium, even for systems that are genuinely isolated. Choosing certain macroscopic regions, this dynamical thermodynamic entropy measures how close these regions are to thermal equilibrium. We also show that in the given formalism, the correspondence between classical entropy (defined on classical phase space) and quantum entropy (defined on Hilbert space) becomes surprisingly direct and transparent, while manifesting differences stemming from non-commutativity of coarse-grainings and from non-existence of a direct classical analogue of quantum energy eigenstates.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Probabilistic bound on extreme fluctuations in isolated quantum systems

We ask to what extent an isolated quantum system can eventually "contract" to be contained within a given Hilbert subspace. We do this by starting with an initial random state, considering the probability that all the particles will be measured in a fixed subspace, and maximizing this probability over all time. This is relevant, for example, in a cosmological context, which may have access to indefinite timescales. We find that when the subspace is much smaller than the entire space, this maximal probability goes to $1/2$ for real initial wave functions, and to $π^2/16$ when the initial wave function has been drawn from a complex ensemble. For example when starting in a real generic state, the chances of collapsing all particles into a small box will be less than but come arbitrarily close to $50\%$. This contraction corresponds to an entropy reduction by a factor of approximately two, thus bounding large downward fluctuations in entropy from generic initial states.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Typical and extreme entropies of long-lived isolated quantum systems

In this paper, we investigate and compare two well-developed definitions of entropy relevant for describing the dynamics of isolated quantum systems: bipartite entanglement entropy and observational entropy. In a model system of interacting particles in a one-dimensional lattice, we numerically solve for the full quantum behavior of the system. We characterize the fluctuations, and find the maximal, minimal, and typical entropy of each type that the system can eventually attain through its evolution. While both entropies are low for some "special" configurations and high for more "generic" ones, there are several fundamental differences in their behavior. Observational entropy behaves in accord with classical Boltzmann entropy (e.g. equilibrium is a condition of near-maximal entropy and uniformly distributed particles, and minimal entropy is a very compact configuration). Entanglement entropy is rather different: minimal entropy "empties out" one partition while maximal entropy apportions the particles between the partitions, and neither is typical. Beyond these qualitative results, we characterize both entropies and their fluctuations in some detail as they depend on temperature, particle number, and box size.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Understanding black hole evaporation using explicitly computed Penrose diagrams

Explicitly computed Penrose diagrams are plotted for a classical model of black hole formation and evaporation, in which black holes form by the accretion of infalling spherical shells of matter and subsequently evaporate by emitting spherical shells of Hawking radiation. This model is based on known semiclassical effects, but is not a full solution of semiclassical gravity. The method allows arbitrary interior metrics of the form $ds^2=-f(r)\,dt^2+f(r)^{-1}\,dr^2+r^2\,dΩ^2$, including singular and nonsingular models. Matter dynamics are visualized by explicitly plotting proper density in the diagrams, as well as by tracking the location of trapped surfaces and energy condition violations. The most illustrative model accurately approximates the standard time evolution for black hole thermal evaporation; its time dependence and causal structure are analyzed by inspection of the diagram. The resulting insights contradict some common intuitions and assumptions, and we point out some examples in the literature with assumptions that do not hold up in this more detailed model. Based on the new diagrams, we argue for an improved understanding of the Hawking radiation process, propose an alternate definition of "black hole" in the presence of evaporation, and suggest some implications regarding information preservation and unitarity.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2010arXiv

Runaway dilatonic domain walls

We explore the stability of domain wall and bubble solutions in theories with compact extra dimensions. The energy density stored inside of the wall can destabilize the volume modulus of a compactification, leading to solutions containing either a timelike singularity or a region where space decompactifies, depending on the metric ansatz. We determine the structure of such solutions both analytically and using numerical simulations, and analyze how they arise in compactifications of Einstein--Maxwell theory and Type IIB string theory. The existence of instabilities has important implications for the formation of networks of topological defects and the population of vacua during eternal inflation.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2010arXiv

The enrichment history of cosmic metals

We use a suite of cosmological, hydrodynamical simulations to investigate the chemical enrichment history of the Universe. Specifically, we trace the origin of the metals back in time to investigate when various gas phases were enriched and by what halo masses. We find that the age of the metals decreases strongly with the density of the gas in which they end up. At least half of the metals that reside in the diffuse intergalactic medium (IGM) at redshift zero (two) were ejected from galaxies above redshift two (three). The mass of the haloes that last contained the metals increases rapidly with the gas density. More than half of the mass in intergalactic metals was ejected by haloes with total masses less than 1e11 solar masses and stellar masses less than 1e9 solar masses. The range of halo masses that contributes to the enrichment is wider for the hotter part of the IGM. By combining the `when' and `by what' aspects of the enrichment history, we show that metals residing in lower density gas were typically ejected earlier and by lower mass haloes.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2009arXiv

A status report on the observability of cosmic bubble collisions

In the picture of eternal inflation as driven by a scalar potential with multiple minima, our observable universe resides inside one of many bubbles formed from transitions out of a false vacuum. These bubbles necessarily collide, upsetting the homogeneity and isotropy of our bubble interior, and possibly leading to detectable signatures in the observable portion of our bubble, potentially in the Cosmic Microwave Background or other precision cosmological probes. This constitutes a direct experimental test of eternal inflation and the landscape of string theory vacua. Assessing this possibility roughly splits into answering three questions: What happens in a generic bubble collision? What observational effects might be expected? How likely are we to observe a collision? In this review we report the current progress on each of these questions, improve upon a few of the existing results, and attempt to lay out directions for future work.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2009arXiv

Dark Stars: Begynnelsen

The first phase of stellar evolution in the history of the universe may be Dark Stars, powered by dark matter heating rather than by fusion. Weakly interacting massive particles, which are their own antiparticles, can annihilate and provide an important heat source for the first stars in the universe. This and the following contribution present the story of Dark Stars. In this first part, we describe the conditions under which dark stars form in the early universe: 1) high dark matter densities, 2) the annihilation products get stuck inside the star, and 3) dark matter heating wins over all other cooling or heating mechanisms.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2009arXiv

Dark Stars: Död och Återuppståndelse

The first phase of stellar evolution in the history of the universe may be Dark Stars, powered by dark matter heating rather than by fusion. Weakly interacting massive particles, which are their own antiparticles, can annihilate and provide an important heat source for the first stars in the universe. This and the previous contribution present the story of Dark Stars. In this second part, we describe the structure of Dark Stars and predict that they are very massive ($\sim 800 M_\odot$), cool (6000 K), bright ($\sim 10^6 L_\odot$), long-lived ($\sim 10^6$ years), and probable precursors to (otherwise unexplained) supermassive black holes. Later, once the initial dark matter fuel runs out and fusion sets in, dark matter annihilation can predominate again if the scattering cross section is strong enough, so that a Dark Star is born again.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access