Properly Learning Poisson Binomial Distributions in Almost Polynomial Time

We give an algorithm for properly learning Poisson binomial distributions. A Poisson binomial distribution (PBD) of order $n$ is the discrete probability distribution of the sum of $n$ mutually independent Bernoulli random variables. Given $\widetilde{O}(1/ε^2)$ samples from an unknown PBD $\mathbf{p}$, our algorithm runs in time $(1/ε)^{O(\log \log (1/ε))}$, and outputs a hypothesis PBD that is $ε$-close to $\mathbf{p}$ in total variation distance. The previously best known running time for properly learning PBDs was $(1/ε)^{O(\log(1/ε))}$. As one of our main contributions, we provide a novel structural characterization of PBDs. We prove that, for all $ε>0,$ there exists an explicit collection $\cal{M}$ of $(1/ε)^{O(\log \log (1/ε))}$ vectors of multiplicities, such that for any PBD $\mathbf{p}$ there exists a PBD $\mathbf{q}$ with $O(\log(1/ε))$ distinct parameters whose multiplicities are given by some element of ${\cal M}$, such that $\mathbf{q}$ is $ε$-close to $\mathbf{p}$. Our proof combines tools from Fourier analysis and algebraic geometry. Our approach to the proper learning problem is as follows: Starting with an accurate non-proper hypothesis, we fit a PBD to this hypothesis. More specifically, we essentially start with the hypothesis computed by the computationally efficient non-proper learning algorithm in our recent work~\cite{DKS15}. Our aforementioned structural characterization allows us to reduce the corresponding fitting problem to a collection of $(1/ε)^{O(\log \log(1/ε))}$ systems of low-degree polynomial inequalities. We show that each such system can be solved in time $(1/ε)^{O(\log \log(1/ε))}$, which yields the overall running time of our algorithm.

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