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Stephen P. Boyd

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Machine Learning math.OC Systems and Control Applications Computation eess.SP eess.SY math.ST Methodology q-fin.MF q-fin.RM q-fin.ST Statistics Theory

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preprint2026arXiv

Enhancing a Risk Model by Adding Transient Statistical Factors

Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two components: the first attributed to a small number of factors that are common among the assets and the second attributed to the idiosyncratic behavior of each asset. Third-party providers typically provide risk models to investors, and while these models are typically of high quality, they may fail to capture important information, e.g., changing market regimes and transient factors. To overcome these limitations, we propose a systematic method based on maximum likelihood estimation to enhance an existing factor model by both refining the given model and adding new statistical factors. Our approach relies only on the observed sequence of realized returns and on the choice of two hyperparameters: the number of additional factors and the half-life parameter that determines the weights assigned to returns in the log-likelihood objective. Importantly, our methodology applies to the situation where asset returns may be missing, making it suitable for typical equity datasets. We demonstrate our approach on the Barra short-term US risk model, a high-quality risk model used in practice, for a universe of US high-capitalization equities. We show that the proposed extension captures structure in the returns that is missed by the original model.

preprint2022arXiv

Model-Based Deep Learning: On the Intersection of Deep Learning and Optimization

Decision making algorithms are used in a multitude of different applications. Conventional approaches for designing decision algorithms employ principled and simplified modelling, based on which one can determine decisions via tractable optimization. More recently, deep learning approaches that use highly parametric architectures tuned from data without relying on mathematical models, are becoming increasingly popular. Model-based optimization and data-centric deep learning are often considered to be distinct disciplines. Here, we characterize them as edges of a continuous spectrum varying in specificity and parameterization, and provide a tutorial-style presentation to the methodologies lying in the middle ground of this spectrum, referred to as model-based deep learning. We accompany our presentation with running examples in super-resolution and stochastic control, and show how they are expressed using the provided characterization and specialized in each of the detailed methodologies. The gains of combining model-based optimization and deep learning are demonstrated using experimental results in various applications, ranging from biomedical imaging to digital communications.

preprint2015arXiv

Adaptive Importance Sampling via Stochastic Convex Programming

We show that the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator that is importance sampled from an exponential family is a convex function of the natural parameter of the distribution. With this insight, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm that simultaneously improves the choice of sampling distribution while accumulating a Monte Carlo estimate. Exploiting convexity, we prove that the method's unbiased estimator has variance that is asymptotically optimal over the exponential family.

preprint2013arXiv

Linear models based on noisy data and the Frisch scheme

We address the problem of identifying linear relations among variables based on noisy measurements. This is, of course, a central question in problems involving "Big Data." Often a key assumption is that measurement errors in each variable are independent. This precise formulation has its roots in the work of Charles Spearman in 1904 and of Ragnar Frisch in the 1930's. Various topics such as errors-in-variables, factor analysis, and instrumental variables, all refer to alternative formulations of the problem of how to account for the anticipated way that noise enters in the data. In the present paper we begin by describing the basic theory and provide alternative modern proofs to some key results. We then go on to consider certain generalizations of the theory as well applying certain novel numerical techniques to the problem. A central role is played by the Frisch-Kalman dictum which aims at a noise contribution that allows a maximal set of simultaneous linear relations among the noise-free variables --a rank minimization problem. In the years since Frisch's original formulation, there have been several insights including trace minimization as a convenient heuristic to replace rank minimization. We discuss convex relaxations and certificates guaranteeing global optimality. A complementary point of view to the Frisch-Kalman dictum is introduced in which models lead to a min-max quadratic estimation error for the error-free variables. Points of contact between the two formalisms are discussed and various alternative regularization schemes are indicated.