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Ryohei Hisano

Ryohei Hisano contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

4 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories: Second-Moment Geometry, Attribution, and Change Points

A central challenge in dynamic network analysis is to represent temporal evolution in a way that is both geometrically meaningful and statistically identifiable. One approach embeds a sequence of network snapshots as trajectories in a Euclidean space and relates these trajectories to node embeddings. In multilayer and unfolded spectral constructions, however, node embeddings and their underlying latent positions are identifiable only up to general linear transformations. Although this ambiguity preserves edge probabilities, it can distort geometry and invalidate distance based temporal comparisons at both the trajectory and node-levels. We develop Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories (MENT), a framework for multiscale temporal trajectories based on second-moment geometry. By imposing an isotropic normalization on the anchor latent positions, we reduce the relevant ambiguity to orthogonal transformations and prevent distortion of the second-moment geometry. In this canonical representation, we define a trace variation distance and mode-wise variation distances along orthogonal directions, and use multidimensional scaling to obtain low-dimensional trajectories of time points at both global and mode-wise levels. The resulting trajectories support interpretation and inference. They admit mode-wise decompositions, support attribution of global and mode-wise temporal changes to nodes, and enable change point detection through 1D trajectories. We prove consistency of the proposed unfolded spectral embedding and of the induced temporal trajectories. Experiments on two synthetic and two real dynamic networks illustrate stable and interpretable recovery of temporal structure and show strong performance against existing change point detection baselines.

preprint2020arXiv

Identifying the Hierarchical Influence Structure Behind Smart Sanctions Using Network Analysis

Smart sanctions are an increasingly popular tool in foreign policy. Countries and international institutions worldwide issue such lists to sanction targeted entities through financial asset freezing, embargoes, and travel restrictions. The relationships between the issuer and the targeted entities in such lists reflect what kind of entities the issuer intends to be against. Thus, analyzing the similarities of sets of targeted entities created by several issuers might pave the way toward understanding the foreign political power structure that influences institutions to take similar actions. In the current paper, by analyzing the smart sanctions lists issued by major countries and international institutions worldwide (a total of 73 countries, 12 international organizations, and 1,700 lists), we identify the hierarchical structure of influence among these institutions that encourages them to take such actions. The Helmholtz--Hodge decomposition is a method that decomposes network flow into a hierarchical gradient component and a loop component and is especially suited for this task. Hence, by performing a Helmholtz--Hodge decomposition of the influence network of these institutions, as constructed from the smart sanctions lists they have issued, we show that meaningful insights about the hierarchical influence structure behind smart sanctions can be obtained.

preprint2019arXiv

Prediction of ESG Compliance using a Heterogeneous Information Network

Negative screening is one method to avoid interactions with inappropriate entities. For example, financial institutions keep investment exclusion lists of inappropriate firms that have environmental, social, and government (ESG) problems. They create their investment exclusion lists by gathering information from various news sources to keep their portfolios profitable as well as green. International organizations also maintain smart sanctions lists that are used to prohibit trade with entities that are involved in illegal activities. In the present paper, we focus on the prediction of investment exclusion lists in the finance domain. We construct a vast heterogeneous information network that covers the necessary information surrounding each firm, which is assembled using seven professionally curated datasets and two open datasets, which results in approximately 50 million nodes and 400 million edges in total. Exploiting these vast datasets and motivated by how professional investigators and journalists undertake their daily investigations, we propose a model that can learn to predict firms that are more likely to be added to an investment exclusion list in the near future. Our approach is tested using the negative news investment exclusion list data of more than 35,000 firms worldwide from January 2012 to May 2018. Comparing with the state-of-the-art methods with and without using the network, we show that the predictive accuracy is substantially improved when using the vast information stored in the heterogeneous information network. This work suggests new ways to consolidate the diffuse information contained in big data to monitor dominant firms on a global scale for better risk management and more socially responsible investment.

preprint2012arXiv

On the distribution of time-to-proof of mathematical conjectures

What is the productivity of Science? Can we measure an evolution of the production of mathematicians over history? Can we predict the waiting time till the proof of a challenging conjecture such as the P-versus-NP problem? Motivated by these questions, we revisit a suggestion published recently and debated in the "New Scientist" that the historical distribution of time-to-proof's, i.e., of waiting times between formulation of a mathematical conjecture and its proof, can be quantified and gives meaningful insights in the future development of still open conjectures. We find however evidence that the mathematical process of creation is too much non-stationary, with too little data and constraints, to allow for a meaningful conclusion. In particular, the approximate unsteady exponential growth of human population, and arguably that of mathematicians, essentially hides the true distribution. Another issue is the incompleteness of the dataset available. In conclusion we cannot really reject the simplest model of an exponential rate of conjecture proof with a rate of 0.01/year for the dataset that we have studied, translating into an average waiting time to proof of 100 years. We hope that the presented methodology, combining the mathematics of recurrent processes, linking proved and still open conjectures, with different empirical constraints, will be useful for other similar investigations probing the productivity associated with mankind growth and creativity.