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Ryohei Hisano

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Published work

10 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories: Second-Moment Geometry, Attribution, and Change Points

A central challenge in dynamic network analysis is to represent temporal evolution in a way that is both geometrically meaningful and statistically identifiable. One approach embeds a sequence of network snapshots as trajectories in a Euclidean space and relates these trajectories to node embeddings. In multilayer and unfolded spectral constructions, however, node embeddings and their underlying latent positions are identifiable only up to general linear transformations. Although this ambiguity preserves edge probabilities, it can distort geometry and invalidate distance based temporal comparisons at both the trajectory and node-levels. We develop Multiscale Euclidean Network Trajectories (MENT), a framework for multiscale temporal trajectories based on second-moment geometry. By imposing an isotropic normalization on the anchor latent positions, we reduce the relevant ambiguity to orthogonal transformations and prevent distortion of the second-moment geometry. In this canonical representation, we define a trace variation distance and mode-wise variation distances along orthogonal directions, and use multidimensional scaling to obtain low-dimensional trajectories of time points at both global and mode-wise levels. The resulting trajectories support interpretation and inference. They admit mode-wise decompositions, support attribution of global and mode-wise temporal changes to nodes, and enable change point detection through 1D trajectories. We prove consistency of the proposed unfolded spectral embedding and of the induced temporal trajectories. Experiments on two synthetic and two real dynamic networks illustrate stable and interpretable recovery of temporal structure and show strong performance against existing change point detection baselines.

preprint2020arXiv

Identifying the Hierarchical Influence Structure Behind Smart Sanctions Using Network Analysis

Smart sanctions are an increasingly popular tool in foreign policy. Countries and international institutions worldwide issue such lists to sanction targeted entities through financial asset freezing, embargoes, and travel restrictions. The relationships between the issuer and the targeted entities in such lists reflect what kind of entities the issuer intends to be against. Thus, analyzing the similarities of sets of targeted entities created by several issuers might pave the way toward understanding the foreign political power structure that influences institutions to take similar actions. In the current paper, by analyzing the smart sanctions lists issued by major countries and international institutions worldwide (a total of 73 countries, 12 international organizations, and 1,700 lists), we identify the hierarchical structure of influence among these institutions that encourages them to take such actions. The Helmholtz--Hodge decomposition is a method that decomposes network flow into a hierarchical gradient component and a loop component and is especially suited for this task. Hence, by performing a Helmholtz--Hodge decomposition of the influence network of these institutions, as constructed from the smart sanctions lists they have issued, we show that meaningful insights about the hierarchical influence structure behind smart sanctions can be obtained.

preprint2019arXiv

Prediction of ESG Compliance using a Heterogeneous Information Network

Negative screening is one method to avoid interactions with inappropriate entities. For example, financial institutions keep investment exclusion lists of inappropriate firms that have environmental, social, and government (ESG) problems. They create their investment exclusion lists by gathering information from various news sources to keep their portfolios profitable as well as green. International organizations also maintain smart sanctions lists that are used to prohibit trade with entities that are involved in illegal activities. In the present paper, we focus on the prediction of investment exclusion lists in the finance domain. We construct a vast heterogeneous information network that covers the necessary information surrounding each firm, which is assembled using seven professionally curated datasets and two open datasets, which results in approximately 50 million nodes and 400 million edges in total. Exploiting these vast datasets and motivated by how professional investigators and journalists undertake their daily investigations, we propose a model that can learn to predict firms that are more likely to be added to an investment exclusion list in the near future. Our approach is tested using the negative news investment exclusion list data of more than 35,000 firms worldwide from January 2012 to May 2018. Comparing with the state-of-the-art methods with and without using the network, we show that the predictive accuracy is substantially improved when using the vast information stored in the heterogeneous information network. This work suggests new ways to consolidate the diffuse information contained in big data to monitor dominant firms on a global scale for better risk management and more socially responsible investment.

preprint2016arXiv

A New Approach to Building the Interindustry Input--Output Table

We present a new approach to estimating the interdependence of industries in an economy by applying data science solutions. By exploiting interfirm buyer--seller network data, we show that the problem of estimating the interdependence of industries is similar to the problem of uncovering the latent block structure in network science literature. To estimate the underlying structure with greater accuracy, we propose an extension of the sparse block model that incorporates node textual information and an unbounded number of industries and interactions among them. The latter task is accomplished by extending the well-known Chinese restaurant process to two dimensions. Inference is based on collapsed Gibbs sampling, and the model is evaluated on both synthetic and real-world datasets. We show that the proposed model improves in predictive accuracy and successfully provides a satisfactory solution to the motivated problem. We also discuss issues that affect the future performance of this approach.

preprint2016arXiv

Semi-supervised Graph Embedding Approach to Dynamic Link Prediction

We propose a simple discrete time semi-supervised graph embedding approach to link prediction in dynamic networks. The learned embedding reflects information from both the temporal and cross-sectional network structures, which is performed by defining the loss function as a weighted sum of the supervised loss from past dynamics and the unsupervised loss of predicting the neighborhood context in the current network. Our model is also capable of learning different embeddings for both formation and dissolution dynamics. These key aspects contributes to the predictive performance of our model and we provide experiments with three real--world dynamic networks showing that our method is comparable to state of the art methods in link formation prediction and outperforms state of the art baseline methods in link dissolution prediction.

preprint2016arXiv

The gradual evolution of buyer--seller networks and their role in aggregate fluctuations

Buyer--seller relationships among firms can be regarded as a longitudinal network in which the connectivity pattern evolves as each firm receives productivity shocks. Based on a data set describing the evolution of buyer--seller links among 55,608 firms over a decade and structural equation modeling, we find some evidence that interfirm networks evolve reflecting a firm's local decisions to mitigate adverse effects from neighbor firms through interfirm linkage, while enjoying positive effects from them. As a result, link renewal tends to have a positive impact on the growth rates of firms. We also investigate the role of networks in aggregate fluctuations.

preprint2013arXiv

High quality topic extraction from business news explains abnormal financial market volatility

Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affect trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this article, we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 206 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affect stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their "thematic" features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized fact in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be "abnormally large," can be partially explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no "excess trading," when restricting to times when news are genuinely novel and provide relevant financial information.

preprint2012arXiv

On the distribution of time-to-proof of mathematical conjectures

What is the productivity of Science? Can we measure an evolution of the production of mathematicians over history? Can we predict the waiting time till the proof of a challenging conjecture such as the P-versus-NP problem? Motivated by these questions, we revisit a suggestion published recently and debated in the "New Scientist" that the historical distribution of time-to-proof's, i.e., of waiting times between formulation of a mathematical conjecture and its proof, can be quantified and gives meaningful insights in the future development of still open conjectures. We find however evidence that the mathematical process of creation is too much non-stationary, with too little data and constraints, to allow for a meaningful conclusion. In particular, the approximate unsteady exponential growth of human population, and arguably that of mathematicians, essentially hides the true distribution. Another issue is the incompleteness of the dataset available. In conclusion we cannot really reject the simplest model of an exponential rate of conjecture proof with a rate of 0.01/year for the dataset that we have studied, translating into an average waiting time to proof of 100 years. We hope that the presented methodology, combining the mathematics of recurrent processes, linking proved and still open conjectures, with different empirical constraints, will be useful for other similar investigations probing the productivity associated with mankind growth and creativity.

preprint2011arXiv

Predicted and Verified Deviations from Zipf's law in Ecology of Competing Products

Zipf's power-law distribution is a generic empirical statistical regularity found in many complex systems. However, rather than universality with a single power-law exponent (equal to 1 for Zipf's law), there are many reported deviations that remain unexplained. A recently developed theory finds that the interplay between (i) one of the most universal ingredients, namely stochastic proportional growth, and (ii) birth and death processes, leads to a generic power-law distribution with an exponent that depends on the characteristics of each ingredient. Here, we report the first complete empirical test of the theory and its application, based on the empirical analysis of the dynamics of market shares in the product market. We estimate directly the average growth rate of market shares and its standard deviation, the birth rates and the "death" (hazard) rate of products. We find that temporal variations and product differences of the observed power-law exponents can be fully captured by the theory with no adjustable parameters. Our results can be generalized to many systems for which the statistical properties revealed by power law exponents are directly linked to the underlying generating mechanism.

preprint2010arXiv

Sales Distribution of Consumer Electronics

Using the uniform most powerful unbiased test, we observed the sales distribution of consumer electronics in Japan on a daily basis and report that it follows both a lognormal distribution and a power-law distribution and depends on the state of the market. We show that these switches occur quite often. The underlying sales dynamics found between both periods nicely matched a multiplicative process. However, even though the multiplicative term in the process displays a size-dependent relationship when a steady lognormal distribution holds, it shows a size-independent relationship when the power-law distribution holds. This difference in the underlying dynamics is responsible for the difference in the two observed distributions.