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Researcher profile

Qingsong Wen

Qingsong Wen contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningArtificial IntelligenceComputation and Languageeess.SPApplicationsComputer VisionDistributed, Parallel, and Cluster ComputingInformation RetrievalNetworking and Internet Architecturephysics.ao-phSound

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Published work

23 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Advanced Global Wildfire Activity Modeling with Hierarchical Graph ODE

Wildfires, as an integral component of the Earth system, are governed by a complex interplay of atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial processes spanning a vast range of spatiotemporal scales. Modeling their global activity on large timescales is therefore a critical yet challenging task. While deep learning has recently achieved significant breakthroughs in global weather forecasting, its potential for global wildfire behavior prediction remains underexplored. In this work, we reframe this problem and introduce the Hierarchical Graph ODE (HiGO), a novel framework designed to learn the multi-scale, continuous-time dynamics of wildfires. Specifically, we represent the Earth system as a multi-level graph hierarchy and propose an adaptive filtering message passing mechanism for both intra- and inter-level information flow, enabling more effective feature extraction and fusion. Furthermore, we incorporate GNN-parameterized Neural ODE modules at multiple levels to explicitly learn the continuous dynamics inherent to each scale. Through extensive experiments on the SeasFire Cube dataset, we demonstrate that HiGO significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on long-range wildfire forecasting. Moreover, its continuous-time predictions exhibit strong observational consistency, highlighting its potential for real-world applications.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Advanced Long-term Earth System Forecasting

Reliable long-term forecasting of Earth system dynamics is fundamentally limited by instabilities in current artificial intelligence (AI) models during extended autoregressive simulations. These failures often originate from inherent spectral bias, leading to inadequate representation of critical high-frequency, small-scale processes and subsequent uncontrolled error amplification. Inspired by the nested grids in numerical models used to resolve small scales, we present TritonCast. At the core of its design is a dedicated latent dynamical core, which ensures the long-term stability of the macro-evolution at a coarse scale. An outer structure then fuses this stable trend with fine-grained local details. This design effectively mitigates the spectral bias caused by cross-scale interactions. In atmospheric science, it achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on the WeatherBench 2 benchmark while demonstrating exceptional long-term stability: executing year-long autoregressive global forecasts and completing multi-year climate simulations that span the entire available $2500$-day test period without drift. In oceanography, it extends skillful eddy forecast to $120$ days and exhibits unprecedented zero-shot cross-resolution generalization. Ablation studies reveal that this performance stems from the synergistic interplay of the architecture's core components. TritonCast thus offers a promising pathway towards a new generation of trustworthy, AI-driven simulations. This significant advance has the potential to accelerate discovery in climate and Earth system science, enabling more reliable long-term forecasting and deeper insights into complex geophysical dynamics.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Beyond Extrapolation: Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration for Time Series Forecasting

Time-series forecasting is critical in various scenarios, such as energy, transportation, and public health. However, most existing forecasters rely primarily on one-way inference, \textit{i.e.}, mapping \textbf{history} to \textbf{target}, and overlook the structural information provided by a revised natural chain (``\textbf{history} (model input) -- \textbf{target} (ground-truth output) -- \textbf{post-target continuation}''). The post-target continuation records how trajectories evolve after the target, which can help stabilize forecasting, but it is not observable at inference time. In this work, we aim to obtain an approximate proxy of the post-target continuation for the current input, providing structural knowledge for bidirectional forecasting. This idea is instantiated as KUP-BI (Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration), a new time-series modeling paradigm that distills continuation-style knowledge (as an approximate post-target continuation proxy) from a \emph{train-only} historical library and integrates it into standard forecasting backbones. The input stream and the continuation-proxy stream are fused via a lightweight feature-level gating module. This design does not introduce information beyond what is already contained in the training trajectories; instead, it provides a structured inductive bias that helps backbones exploit typical continuation patterns rather than relying solely on parametric extrapolation. Experimental results on six public datasets show that KUP-BI consistently improves the forecasting performance of state-of-the-art models, with small additional overhead.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

CHI-Bench: Can AI Agents Automate End-to-End, Long-Horizon, Policy-Rich Healthcare Workflows?

End-to-end automation of realistic healthcare operations stresses three capabilities underrepresented in current benchmarks: policy density, decisions must be grounded in a large library of medical, insurance, and operational rules; Multi-role composition: a single task requires the agent to play multiple roles with handoffs; and multilateral interaction: intermediate workflow steps are multi-turn dialogs, such as peer-to-peer review and patient outreach. We introduce $χ$-Bench, a benchmark of long-horizon healthcare workflows across three domains: provider prior authorization, payer utilization management, and care management. Each task hands the agent a clinical case in a high-fidelity simulator of 20 healthcare apps exposed via 87 MCP tools, which it must drive to a terminal status through tool calls and writing the role's artifacts, guided by a 1,290+ document managed-care operations handbook skill. Across 30 agent harness/models configurations, the best agent resolves only 28.0% of tasks, no agent clears 20% on strict pass^3, and executing all tasks in a single session slumps the performance to 3.8%. These results raise the hypothesis that similar gaps are likely to surface in other policy-dense, role-composed, irreversible enterprise domains.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

ChronosAudio: A Comprehensive Long-Audio Benchmark for Evaluating Audio-Large Language Models

Although Audio Large Language Models (ALLMs) have witnessed substantial advancements, their long audio understanding capabilities remain unexplored. A plethora of benchmarks have been proposed for general audio tasks, they predominantly focus on short-form clips, leaving without a consensus on evaluating ALLMs over extended durations. This paper proposes ChronosAudio, the first multi-task benchmark tailored for long-audio understanding in ALLMs. It encompasses six major task categories and comprises 36,000 test instances totaling over 200 hours audio, stratified into short, middle, and long-form categories to comprehensively evaluate length generalization. Extensive experiments on 16 state-of-the-art models using ChronosAudio yield three critical findings: 1.Precipitous Long-Context Collapse: ALLMs exhibit a severe inability to sustain performance, with the transition from short to long contexts triggering a staggering performance degradation of over 90% in specific tasks. 2.Structural Attention Dilution: Performance degradation stems from a fundamental failure in maintaining temporal locality; attention mechanisms suffer from significant diffusion in later sequences. 3.Restorative Ceiling of Mitigation: Current strategies only offer 50% recovery. These findings reveal significant challenges in long-audio, underscoring the urgent need for approaches to achieve robust, document-level audio reasoning.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Digital Twin AI: Opportunities and Challenges from Large Language Models to World Models

Digital twins, as precise digital representations of physical systems, have evolved from passive simulation tools into intelligent and autonomous entities through the integration of artificial intelligence technologies. This paper presents a unified four-stage framework that systematically characterizes AI integration across the digital twin lifecycle, spanning modeling, mirroring, intervention, and autonomous management. By synthesizing existing technologies and practices, we distill a unified four-stage framework that systematically characterizes how AI methodologies are embedded across the digital twin lifecycle: (1) modeling the physical twin through physics-based and physics-informed AI approaches, (2) mirroring the physical system into a digital twin with real-time synchronization, (3) intervening in the physical twin through predictive modeling, anomaly detection, and optimization strategies, and (4) achieving autonomous management through large language models, foundation models, and intelligent agents. We analyze the synergy between physics-based modeling and data-driven learning, highlighting the shift from traditional numerical solvers to physics-informed and foundation models for physical systems. Furthermore, we examine how generative AI technologies, including large language models and generative world models, transform digital twins into proactive and self-improving cognitive systems capable of reasoning, communication, and creative scenario generation. Through a cross-domain review spanning eleven application domains, including healthcare, aerospace, smart manufacturing, robotics, and smart cities, we identify common challenges related to scalability, explainability, and trustworthiness, and outline directions for responsible AI-driven digital twin systems.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

HearSay Benchmark: Do Audio LLMs Leak What They Hear?

While Audio Large Language Models (ALLMs) have achieved remarkable progress in understanding and generation, their potential privacy implications remain largely unexplored. This paper takes the first step to investigate whether ALLMs inadvertently leak user privacy solely through acoustic voiceprints and introduces $\textit{HearSay}$, a comprehensive benchmark constructed from over 22,000 real-world audio clips. To ensure data quality, the benchmark is meticulously curated through a rigorous pipeline involving automated profiling and human verification, guaranteeing that all privacy labels are grounded in factual records. Extensive experiments on $\textit{HearSay}$ yield three critical findings: $\textbf{Significant Privacy Leakage}$: ALLMs inherently extract private attributes from voiceprints, reaching 92.89% accuracy on gender and effectively profiling social attributes. $\textbf{Insufficient Safety Mechanisms}$: Alarmingly, existing safeguards are severely inadequate; most models fail to refuse privacy-intruding requests, exhibiting near-zero refusal rates for physiological traits. $\textbf{Reasoning Amplifies Risk}$: Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning exacerbates privacy risks in capable models by uncovering deeper acoustic correlations. These findings expose critical vulnerabilities in ALLMs, underscoring the urgent need for targeted privacy alignment. The codes and dataset are available at https://github.com/JinWang79/HearSay_Benchmark

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

MIRL: Mutual Information-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Vision-Language Models

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) frequently suffer from visual perception errors and hallucinations that compromise answer accuracy in complex reasoning tasks. Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) offers a promising solution by optimizing policies using answer correctness signals. Despite their effectiveness, prevailing RLVR methods face two critical limitations. First, much of the sampling budget is wasted on trajectories doomed to fail due to early visual description errors. Second, sparse rewards cannot distinguish whether failures stem from visual perception or reasoning stages. We introduce MIRL, a decoupled framework that addresses both limitations by leveraging mutual information (MI) between generated descriptions and visual inputs as a cheap pre-screening signal. This enables intelligent budget allocation toward high-potential trajectories via forking, while decoupled training provides independent MI-based rewards for visual perception optimization, resolving reward blindness. Experiments on six vision-language reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that MIRL achieves 70.22% average accuracy and successfully surpasses the performance of sampling 16 complete trajectories using only 10 pre-samples with top-6 selection (25% fewer complete trajectories). Our code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/mirl-main/.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

NeuralOM: Neural Ocean Model for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Simulation

Long-term, high-fidelity simulation of slow-changing physical systems, such as the ocean and climate, presents a fundamental challenge in scientific computing. Traditional autoregressive machine learning models often fail in these tasks as minor errors accumulate and lead to rapid forecast degradation. To address this problem, we propose NeuralOM, a general neural operator framework designed for simulating complex, slow-changing dynamics. NeuralOM's core consists of two key innovations: (1) a Progressive Residual Correction Framework that decomposes the forecasting task into a series of fine-grained refinement steps, effectively suppressing long-term error accumulation; and (2) a Physics-Guided Graph Network whose built-in adaptive messaging mechanism explicitly models multi-scale physical interactions, such as gradient-driven flows and multiplicative couplings, thereby enhancing physical consistency while maintaining computational efficiency. We validate NeuralOM on the challenging task of global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) ocean simulation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NeuralOM not only surpasses state-of-the-art models in forecast accuracy and long-term stability, but also excels in simulating extreme events. For instance, at a 60-day lead time, NeuralOM achieves a 13.3% lower RMSE compared to the best-performing baseline, offering a stable, efficient, and physically-aware paradigm for data-driven scientific computing. Code link: https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/NeuralOM.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Olivia: Harmonizing Time Series Foundation Models with Power Spectral Density

Time series foundation models rely on large-scale pretraining over diverse datasets across domains, yet their heterogeneity in temporal patterns could hinder the effectiveness of training and learning transferable time series representations. Inspired a fundamental concept, normalized power spectral density (PSD) in signal processing, we assume harmonizing datasets via PSDs in the spectral domain could reduce mismatches and enhance pretraining. We then go beyond the direct intractable minimization optimization and innovatively reformulate it as a principled harmonization approach. Specifically, we propose Harmonizer, a module that reshapes spectral structures and implicitly harmonizing PSDs across datasets, which theoretically corresponds to a shared reparameterization of second-order temporal correlations. Our theoretical analysis further reveals token interactions with Harmonizer can be efficiently mediated by a compact set of resonators, motivating a HarmonicAttention design that performs self-attention in a low-dimensional interaction space. Then, we propose Olivia, a novel time series foundation model built upon these harmonization mechanisms. Extensive experiments on two large-scale benchmarks (TSLib and GIFT-Eval) and extra 6 datasets from GluonTS, demonstrate Olivia consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance under zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot forecasting scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/TSTS13/Olivia.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Perceive, Route and Modulate: Dynamic Pattern Recalibration for Time Series Forecasting

Local temporal patterns in real-world time series continuously shift, rendering globally shared transformations suboptimal. Current deep forecasting models, despite their scale and complexity, rely on fixed weight matrices applied uniformly to all temporal tokens. This creates a static pattern response: models settle into a compromised average, unable to adapt to changing local dynamics. We introduce Dynamic Pattern Recalibration (DPR), a backbone-agnostic mechanism that resolves this via token-level recalibration. Through a lightweight "Perceive-Route-Modulate" pipeline, DPR computes a soft-routing distribution over a learned basis of adaptive response patterns, generating a time-aware modulation vector that recalibrates hidden states via a residual Hadamard product. As a backbone-agnostic adapter, DPR enhances forecasting across diverse architectures with minimal overhead, confirming it addresses a general bottleneck. As a minimalist standalone model, DPRNet achieves competitive performance across 12 benchmarks, validating dynamic recalibration against macroscopic parameter scaling.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Coupled spatiotemporal forecasting is important for predicting the future evolution of multiple interacting dynamical systems, such as in climate models. However, existing methods are severely constrained by the persistent bottleneck of compounding errors. In coupled systems, errors from each subsystem simulator propagate and amplify one another, a phenomenon we term Reciprocal Error Amplification, leading to a rapid collapse of long-range predictions. To address this challenge, we propose a universal framework called PnP-Corrector (Plug-and-Play Corrector). The core idea of our framework is to decouple the physical simulation from the error correction process: it freezes pre-trained physics simulation engines and exclusively trains a correction agent to proactively counteract the systematic biases emerging from the coupled system. Furthermore, we design an efficient predictive model architecture, DSLCast, to serve as the backbone of this framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the long-term stability and accuracy of coupled forecasting systems. For instance, in the challenging task of a 300-day global ocean-atmosphere coupled forecast, our PnP-Corrector framework reduces the prediction error of the baseline model by 29% and surpasses state-of-the-art models on several key metrics.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Remember the Decision, Not the Description: A Rate-Distortion Framework for Agent Memory

Long-horizon language agents must operate under limited runtime memory, yet existing memory mechanisms often organize experience around descriptive criteria such as relevance, salience, or summary quality. For an agent, however, memory is valuable not because it faithfully describes the past, but because it preserves the distinctions between histories that must remain separated under a fixed budget to support good decisions. We cast this as a decision-centric rate-distortion problem, measuring memory quality by the loss in achievable decision quality induced by compression. This yields an exact forgetting boundary for what can be safely forgotten, and a memory-distortion frontier characterizing the optimal tradeoff between memory budget and decision quality. Motivated by this decision-centric view of memory, we propose DeMem, an online memory learner that refines its partition only when data certify that a shared state would induce decision conflict, and prove near-minimax regret guarantees. On both controlled synthetic diagnostics and long-horizon conversational benchmarks, DeMem yields consistent gains under the same runtime budget, supporting the principle that memory should preserve the distinctions that matter for decisions, not descriptions.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

SAEMark: Steering Personalized Multilingual LLM Watermarks with Sparse Autoencoders

Watermarking LLM-generated text is critical for content attribution and misinformation prevention. However, existing methods compromise text quality, require white-box model access and logit manipulation. These limitations exclude API-based models and multilingual scenarios. We propose SAEMark, a general framework for post-hoc multi-bit watermarking that embeds personalized messages solely via inference-time, feature-based rejection sampling without altering model logits or requiring training. Our approach operates on deterministic features extracted from generated text, selecting outputs whose feature statistics align with key-derived targets. This framework naturally generalizes across languages and domains while preserving text quality through sampling LLM outputs instead of modifying. We provide theoretical guarantees relating watermark success probability and compute budget that hold for any suitable feature extractor. Empirically, we demonstrate the framework's effectiveness using Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs), achieving superior detection accuracy and text quality. Experiments across 4 datasets show SAEMark's consistent performance, with 99.7% F1 on English and strong multi-bit detection accuracy. SAEMark establishes a new paradigm for scalable watermarking that works out-of-the-box with closed-source LLMs while enabling content attribution.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Towards Out-of-Distribution Sequential Event Prediction: A Causal Treatment

The goal of sequential event prediction is to estimate the next event based on a sequence of historical events, with applications to sequential recommendation, user behavior analysis and clinical treatment. In practice, the next-event prediction models are trained with sequential data collected at one time and need to generalize to newly arrived sequences in remote future, which requires models to handle temporal distribution shift from training to testing. In this paper, we first take a data-generating perspective to reveal a negative result that existing approaches with maximum likelihood estimation would fail for distribution shift due to the latent context confounder, i.e., the common cause for the historical events and the next event. Then we devise a new learning objective based on backdoor adjustment and further harness variational inference to make it tractable for sequence learning problems. On top of that, we propose a framework with hierarchical branching structures for learning context-specific representations. Comprehensive experiments on diverse tasks (e.g., sequential recommendation) demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability and scalability of our method with various off-the-shelf models as backbones.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

A Global Modeling Approach for Load Forecasting in Distribution Networks

Efficient load forecasting is needed to ensure better observability in the distribution networks, whereas such forecasting is made possible by an increasing number of smart meter installations. Because distribution networks include a large amount of different loads at various aggregation levels, such as individual consumers, transformer stations and feeders loads, it is impractical to develop individual (or so-called local) forecasting models for each load separately. Furthermore, such local models ignore the strong dependencies between different loads that might be present due to their spatial proximity and the characteristics of the distribution network. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global modeling approach based on deep learning for efficient forecasting of a large number of loads in distribution networks. In this way, the computational burden of training a large amount of local forecasting models can be largely reduced, and the cross-series information shared among different loads can be utilized. Additionally, an unsupervised localization mechanism and optimal ensemble construction strategy are also proposed to localize/personalize the forecasting model to different groups of loads and to improve the forecasting accuracy further. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on real-world smart meter data to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach compared to competing methods.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting

Although Transformer-based methods have significantly improved state-of-the-art results for long-term series forecasting, they are not only computationally expensive but more importantly, are unable to capture the global view of time series (e.g. overall trend). To address these problems, we propose to combine Transformer with the seasonal-trend decomposition method, in which the decomposition method captures the global profile of time series while Transformers capture more detailed structures. To further enhance the performance of Transformer for long-term prediction, we exploit the fact that most time series tend to have a sparse representation in well-known basis such as Fourier transform, and develop a frequency enhanced Transformer. Besides being more effective, the proposed method, termed as Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer ({\bf FEDformer}), is more efficient than standard Transformer with a linear complexity to the sequence length. Our empirical studies with six benchmark datasets show that compared with state-of-the-art methods, FEDformer can reduce prediction error by $14.8\%$ and $22.6\%$ for multivariate and univariate time series, respectively. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/MAZiqing/FEDformer.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

NetRCA: An Effective Network Fault Cause Localization Algorithm

Localizing the root cause of network faults is crucial to network operation and maintenance. However, due to the complicated network architectures and wireless environments, as well as limited labeled data, accurately localizing the true root cause is challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm named NetRCA to deal with this problem. Firstly, we extract effective derived features from the original raw data by considering temporal, directional, attribution, and interaction characteristics. Secondly, we adopt multivariate time series similarity and label propagation to generate new training data from both labeled and unlabeled data to overcome the lack of labeled samples. Thirdly, we design an ensemble model which combines XGBoost, rule set learning, attribution model, and graph algorithm, to fully utilize all data information and enhance performance. Finally, experiments and analysis are conducted on the real-world dataset from ICASSP 2022 AIOps Challenge to demonstrate the superiority and effectiveness of our approach.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Robust Time Series Dissimilarity Measure for Outlier Detection and Periodicity Detection

Dynamic time warping (DTW) is an effective dissimilarity measure in many time series applications. Despite its popularity, it is prone to noises and outliers, which leads to singularity problem and bias in the measurement. The time complexity of DTW is quadratic to the length of time series, making it inapplicable in real-time applications. In this paper, we propose a novel time series dissimilarity measure named RobustDTW to reduce the effects of noises and outliers. Specifically, the RobustDTW estimates the trend and optimizes the time warp in an alternating manner by utilizing our designed temporal graph trend filtering. To improve efficiency, we propose a multi-level framework that estimates the trend and the warp function at a lower resolution, and then repeatedly refines them at a higher resolution. Based on the proposed RobustDTW, we further extend it to periodicity detection and outlier time series detection. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of RobustDTW compared to DTW variants in both outlier time series detection and periodicity detection.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

RobustScaler: QoS-Aware Autoscaling for Complex Workloads

Autoscaling is a critical component for efficient resource utilization with satisfactory quality of service (QoS) in cloud computing. This paper investigates proactive autoscaling for widely-used scaling-per-query applications where scaling is required for each query, such as container registry and function-as-a-service (FaaS). In these scenarios, the workload often exhibits high uncertainty with complex temporal patterns like periodicity, noises and outliers. Conservative strategies that scale out unnecessarily many instances lead to high resource costs whereas aggressive strategies may result in poor QoS. We present RobustScaler to achieve superior trade-off between cost and QoS. Specifically, we design a novel autoscaling framework based on non-homogeneous Poisson processes (NHPP) modeling and stochastically constrained optimization. Furthermore, we develop a specialized alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) to efficiently train the NHPP model, and rigorously prove the QoS guarantees delivered by our optimization-based proactive strategies. Extensive experiments show that RobustScaler outperforms common baseline autoscaling strategies in various real-world traces, with large margins for complex workload patterns.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Time Series Data Augmentation for Deep Learning: A Survey

Deep learning performs remarkably well on many time series analysis tasks recently. The superior performance of deep neural networks relies heavily on a large number of training data to avoid overfitting. However, the labeled data of many real-world time series applications may be limited such as classification in medical time series and anomaly detection in AIOps. As an effective way to enhance the size and quality of the training data, data augmentation is crucial to the successful application of deep learning models on time series data. In this paper, we systematically review different data augmentation methods for time series. We propose a taxonomy for the reviewed methods, and then provide a structured review for these methods by highlighting their strengths and limitations. We also empirically compare different data augmentation methods for different tasks including time series classification, anomaly detection, and forecasting. Finally, we discuss and highlight five future directions to provide useful research guidance.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

TreeDRNet:A Robust Deep Model for Long Term Time Series Forecasting

Various deep learning models, especially some latest Transformer-based approaches, have greatly improved the state-of-art performance for long-term time series forecasting.However, those transformer-based models suffer a severe deterioration performance with prolonged input length, which prohibits them from using extended historical info.Moreover, these methods tend to handle complex examples in long-term forecasting with increased model complexity, which often leads to a significant increase in computation and less robustness in performance(e.g., overfitting). We propose a novel neural network architecture, called TreeDRNet, for more effective long-term forecasting. Inspired by robust regression, we introduce doubly residual link structure to make prediction more robust.Built upon Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, we explicitly introduce feature selection, model ensemble, and a tree structure to further utilize the extended input sequence, which improves the robustness and representation power of TreeDRNet. Unlike previous deep models for sequential forecasting work, TreeDRNet is built entirely on multilayer perceptron and thus enjoys high computational efficiency. Our extensive empirical studies show that TreeDRNet is significantly more effective than state-of-the-art methods, reducing prediction errors by 20% to 40% for multivariate time series. In particular, TreeDRNet is over 10 times more efficient than transformer-based methods. The code will be released soon.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

RobustPeriod: Time-Frequency Mining for Robust Multiple Periodicity Detection

Periodicity detection is a crucial step in time series tasks, including monitoring and forecasting of metrics in many areas, such as IoT applications and self-driving database management system. In many of these applications, multiple periodic components exist and are often interlaced with each other. Such dynamic and complicated periodic patterns make the accurate periodicity detection difficult. In addition, other components in the time series, such as trend, outliers and noises, also pose additional challenges for accurate periodicity detection. In this paper, we propose a robust and general framework for multiple periodicity detection. Our algorithm applies maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform to transform the time series into multiple temporal-frequency scales such that different periodic components can be isolated. We rank them by wavelet variance, and then at each scale detect single periodicity by our proposed Huber-periodogram and Huber-ACF robustly. We rigorously prove the theoretical properties of Huber-periodogram and justify the use of Fisher's test on Huber-periodogram for periodicity detection. To further refine the detected periods, we compute unbiased autocorrelation function based on Wiener-Khinchin theorem from Huber-periodogram for improved robustness and efficiency. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our algorithm outperforms other popular ones for both single and multiple periodicity detection.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access