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Researcher profile

Palash Goyal

Palash Goyal contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningArtificial IntelligenceComputer VisionComputation and LanguageSoftware Engineering

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to forecasting. To evaluate this capability while mitigating pre-training data contamination, several living benchmarks have been proposed. However, existing benchmarks either lack the multidimensional events essential for accurate forecasting due to data scarcity, or focus on relatively closed environments. To assess the predictive capabilities of LLMs in complex, real-world scenarios, we propose LEAF, the first living benchmark for event-augmented forecasting tasks, including future event probabilities, trend and time series forecasting. LEAF utilizes a recursive retrieval agent system paired with dual-agent cross-validation to provide comprehensive and relevant auxiliary text for forecasting. Evaluating state-of-the-art proprietary and open-weight LLMs, we find that these models can leverage signals extracted from complex events to enhance predictive performance. In the stock domain, we find that LLMs achieve better performance on equities they confidently identify as more predictable. Furthermore, the events demonstrate a strong correlation with the target equities. To this end, LEAF provides a necessary, dynamically updating testbed to continuously track and drive progress in event-driven forecasting tasks.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Reasoning-Aware Training for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM, dynamically projecting its mean-pooled hidden states as a cross-modal prior into the target numerical encoder. The architecture is jointly optimized using cross-entropy and quantile losses. Evaluations demonstrate STRIDE establishes state-of-the-art numerical forecasting on GIFT-Eval (0.674 MASE, 0.454 CRPS) compared to TSFMs and exhibits superior in-domain and out-of-domain numerical as well as reasoning performance on TFRBench. Specifically, STRIDE acts as a plug-and-play enhancement, consistently improving diverse TSFMs (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1) across various LLM configurations. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while fundamentally improving predictive accuracy.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Faithful Model Evaluation for Model-Based Metrics

Statistical significance testing is used in natural language processing (NLP) to determine whether the results of a study or experiment are likely to be due to chance or if they reflect a genuine relationship. A key step in significance testing is the estimation of confidence interval which is a function of sample variance. Sample variance calculation is straightforward when evaluating against ground truth. However, in many cases, a metric model is often used for evaluation. For example, to compare toxicity of two large language models, a toxicity classifier is used for evaluation. Existing works usually do not consider the variance change due to metric model errors, which can lead to wrong conclusions. In this work, we establish the mathematical foundation of significance testing for model-based metrics. With experiments on public benchmark datasets and a production system, we show that considering metric model errors to calculate sample variances for model-based metrics changes the conclusions in certain experiments.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

ArduCode: Predictive Framework for Automation Engineering

Automation engineering is the task of integrating, via software, various sensors, actuators, and controls for automating a real-world process. Today, automation engineering is supported by a suite of software tools including integrated development environments (IDE), hardware configurators, compilers, and runtimes. These tools focus on the automation code itself, but leave the automation engineer unassisted in their decision making. This can lead to increased time for software development because of imperfections in decision making leading to multiple iterations between software and hardware. To address this, this paper defines multiple challenges often faced in automation engineering and propose solutions using machine learning to assist engineers tackle such challenges. We show that machine learning can be leveraged to assist the automation engineer in classifying automation, finding similar code snippets, and reasoning about the hardware selection of sensors and actuators. We validate our architecture on two real datasets consisting of 2,927 Arduino projects, and 683 Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) projects. Our results show that paragraph embedding techniques can be utilized to classify automation using code snippets with precision close to human annotation, giving an F1-score of 72%. Further, we show that such embedding techniques can help us find similar code snippets with high accuracy. Finally, we use autoencoder models for hardware recommendation and achieve a p@3 of 0.79 and p@5 of 0.95.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Cross-modal Learning for Multi-modal Video Categorization

Multi-modal machine learning (ML) models can process data in multiple modalities (e.g., video, audio, text) and are useful for video content analysis in a variety of problems (e.g., object detection, scene understanding, activity recognition). In this paper, we focus on the problem of video categorization using a multi-modal ML technique. In particular, we have developed a novel multi-modal ML approach that we call "cross-modal learning", where one modality influences another but only when there is correlation between the modalities -- for that, we first train a correlation tower that guides the main multi-modal video categorization tower in the model. We show how this cross-modal principle can be applied to different types of models (e.g., RNN, Transformer, NetVLAD), and demonstrate through experiments how our proposed multi-modal video categorization models with cross-modal learning out-perform strong state-of-the-art baseline models.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Exploiting Temporal Coherence for Multi-modal Video Categorization

Multimodal ML models can process data in multiple modalities (e.g., video, images, audio, text) and are useful for video content analysis in a variety of problems (e.g., object detection, scene understanding). In this paper, we focus on the problem of video categorization by using a multimodal approach. We have developed a novel temporal coherence-based regularization approach, which applies to different types of models (e.g., RNN, NetVLAD, Transformer). We demonstrate through experiments how our proposed multimodal video categorization models with temporal coherence out-perform strong state-of-the-art baseline models.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Hierarchical Class-Based Curriculum Loss

Classification algorithms in machine learning often assume a flat label space. However, most real world data have dependencies between the labels, which can often be captured by using a hierarchy. Utilizing this relation can help develop a model capable of satisfying the dependencies and improving model accuracy and interpretability. Further, as different levels in the hierarchy correspond to different granularities, penalizing each label equally can be detrimental to model learning. In this paper, we propose a loss function, hierarchical curriculum loss, with two properties: (i) satisfy hierarchical constraints present in the label space, and (ii) provide non-uniform weights to labels based on their levels in the hierarchy, learned implicitly by the training paradigm. We theoretically show that the proposed loss function is a tighter bound of 0-1 loss compared to any other loss satisfying the hierarchical constraints. We test our loss function on real world image data sets, and show that it significantly substantially outperforms multiple baselines.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access