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Mihir Parmar

Mihir Parmar contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Computation and Language Cryptography and Security Information Retrieval

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preprint2026arXiv

LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to forecasting. To evaluate this capability while mitigating pre-training data contamination, several living benchmarks have been proposed. However, existing benchmarks either lack the multidimensional events essential for accurate forecasting due to data scarcity, or focus on relatively closed environments. To assess the predictive capabilities of LLMs in complex, real-world scenarios, we propose LEAF, the first living benchmark for event-augmented forecasting tasks, including future event probabilities, trend and time series forecasting. LEAF utilizes a recursive retrieval agent system paired with dual-agent cross-validation to provide comprehensive and relevant auxiliary text for forecasting. Evaluating state-of-the-art proprietary and open-weight LLMs, we find that these models can leverage signals extracted from complex events to enhance predictive performance. In the stock domain, we find that LLMs achieve better performance on equities they confidently identify as more predictable. Furthermore, the events demonstrate a strong correlation with the target equities. To this end, LEAF provides a necessary, dynamically updating testbed to continuously track and drive progress in event-driven forecasting tasks.

preprint2026arXiv

LiSA: Lifelong Safety Adaptation via Conservative Policy Induction

As AI agents move from chat interfaces to systems that read private data, call tools, and execute multi-step workflows, guardrails become a last line of defense against concrete deployment harms. In these settings, guardrail failures are no longer merely answer-quality errors: they can leak secrets, authorize unsafe actions, or block legitimate work. The hardest failures are often contextual: whether an action is acceptable depends on local privacy norms, organizational policies, and user expectations that resist pre-deployment specification. This creates a practical gap: guardrails must adapt to their own operating environments, yet deployment feedback is typically limited to sparse, noisy user-reported failures, and repeated fine-tuning is often impractical. To address this gap, we propose LiSA (Lifelong Safety Adaptation), a conservative policy induction framework that improves a fixed base guardrail through structured memory. LiSA converts occasional failures into reusable policy abstractions so that sparse reports can generalize beyond individual cases, adds conflict-aware local rules to prevent overgeneralization in mixed-label contexts, and applies evidence-aware confidence gating via a posterior lower bound, so that memory reuse scales with accumulated evidence rather than empirical accuracy alone. Across PrivacyLens+, ConFaide+, and AgentHarm, LiSA consistently outperforms strong memory-based baselines under sparse feedback, remains robust under noisy user feedback even at 20% label-flip rates, and pushes the latency--performance frontier beyond backbone model scaling. Ultimately, LiSA offers a practical path to secure AI agents against the unpredictable long tail of real-world edge risks.

preprint2026arXiv

Mid-Training with Self-Generated Data Improves Reinforcement Learning in Language Models

The effectiveness of Reinforcement Learning (RL) in Large Language Models (LLMs) depends on the nature and diversity of the data used before and during RL. In particular, reasoning problems can often be approached in multiple ways that rely on different forms of reasoning, and exposure to only a limited range of such approaches in the training data may limit the effectiveness of RL. Motivated by this, we investigate using diverse self-generated data during mid-training as an intermediate step before RL training. Specifically, we adopt a bootstrapped data-generation framework guided by George Polya's problem-solving approaches for generating multiple variants of correct answers for each question in the training data, and then perform fine-tuning. We first provide a theoretical perspective on how mid-training on such data improves RL and explain how policy-gradient updates can incentivize combining multiple approaches. We then empirically demonstrate that RL-trained models initialized with our mid-training data achieve consistent improvements across various mathematical reasoning benchmarks and other OOD tasks like code generation and narrative reasoning. Overall, our investigative study shows that a language model learning multiple problem-solving approaches, through self-generated data helps subsequent RL.

preprint2026arXiv

Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.

preprint2026arXiv

Reasoning-Aware Training for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM, dynamically projecting its mean-pooled hidden states as a cross-modal prior into the target numerical encoder. The architecture is jointly optimized using cross-entropy and quantile losses. Evaluations demonstrate STRIDE establishes state-of-the-art numerical forecasting on GIFT-Eval (0.674 MASE, 0.454 CRPS) compared to TSFMs and exhibits superior in-domain and out-of-domain numerical as well as reasoning performance on TFRBench. Specifically, STRIDE acts as a plug-and-play enhancement, consistently improving diverse TSFMs (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1) across various LLM configurations. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while fundamentally improving predictive accuracy.

preprint2022arXiv

BioTABQA: Instruction Learning for Biomedical Table Question Answering

Table Question Answering (TQA) is an important but under-explored task. Most of the existing QA datasets are in unstructured text format and only few of them use tables as the context. To the best of our knowledge, none of TQA datasets exist in the biomedical domain where tables are frequently used to present information. In this paper, we first curate a table question answering dataset, BioTABQA, using 22 templates and the context from a biomedical textbook on differential diagnosis. BioTABQA can not only be used to teach a model how to answer questions from tables but also evaluate how a model generalizes to unseen questions, an important scenario for biomedical applications. To achieve the generalization evaluation, we divide the templates into 17 training and 5 cross-task evaluations. Then, we develop two baselines using single and multi-tasks learning on BioTABQA. Furthermore, we explore instructional learning, a recent technique showing impressive generalizing performance. Experimental results show that our instruction-tuned model outperforms single and multi-task baselines on an average by ~23% and ~6% across various evaluation settings, and more importantly, instruction-tuned model outperforms baselines by ~5% on cross-tasks.

preprint2022arXiv

In-BoXBART: Get Instructions into Biomedical Multi-Task Learning

Single-task models have proven pivotal in solving specific tasks; however, they have limitations in real-world applications where multi-tasking is necessary and domain shifts are exhibited. Recently, instructional prompts have shown significant improvement towards multi-task generalization; however, the effect of instructional prompts and Multi-Task Learning (MTL) has not been systematically studied in the biomedical domain. Motivated by this, this paper explores the impact of instructional prompts for biomedical MTL. We introduce the BoX, a collection of 32 instruction tasks for Biomedical NLP across (X) various categories. Using this meta-dataset, we propose a unified model termed In-BoXBART, that can jointly learn all tasks of the BoX without any task-specific modules. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose a unified model in the biomedical domain and use instructions to achieve generalization across several biomedical tasks. Experimental results indicate that the proposed model: 1) outperforms the single-task baseline by ~3% and multi-task (without instruction) baseline by ~18% on an average, and 2) shows ~23% improvement compared to the single-task baseline in few-shot learning (i.e., 32 instances per task) on an average. Our analysis indicates that there is significant room for improvement across tasks in the BoX, implying the scope for future research direction.

preprint2021arXiv

COVID-19: Comparative Analysis of Methods for Identifying Articles Related to Therapeutics and Vaccines without Using Labeled Data

Here we proposed an approach to analyze text classification methods based on the presence or absence of task-specific terms (and their synonyms) in the text. We applied this approach to study six different transfer-learning and unsupervised methods for screening articles relevant to COVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics. The analysis revealed that while a BERT model trained on search-engine results generally performed well, it miss-classified relevant abstracts that did not contain task-specific terms. We used this insight to create a more effective unsupervised ensemble.

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