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Researcher profile

Chun-Liang Li

Chun-Liang Li contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningArtificial IntelligenceComputation and LanguageComputer VisionGraphicsMethodology

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Published work

16 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to forecasting. To evaluate this capability while mitigating pre-training data contamination, several living benchmarks have been proposed. However, existing benchmarks either lack the multidimensional events essential for accurate forecasting due to data scarcity, or focus on relatively closed environments. To assess the predictive capabilities of LLMs in complex, real-world scenarios, we propose LEAF, the first living benchmark for event-augmented forecasting tasks, including future event probabilities, trend and time series forecasting. LEAF utilizes a recursive retrieval agent system paired with dual-agent cross-validation to provide comprehensive and relevant auxiliary text for forecasting. Evaluating state-of-the-art proprietary and open-weight LLMs, we find that these models can leverage signals extracted from complex events to enhance predictive performance. In the stock domain, we find that LLMs achieve better performance on equities they confidently identify as more predictable. Furthermore, the events demonstrate a strong correlation with the target equities. To this end, LEAF provides a necessary, dynamically updating testbed to continuously track and drive progress in event-driven forecasting tasks.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Reasoning-Aware Training for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM, dynamically projecting its mean-pooled hidden states as a cross-modal prior into the target numerical encoder. The architecture is jointly optimized using cross-entropy and quantile losses. Evaluations demonstrate STRIDE establishes state-of-the-art numerical forecasting on GIFT-Eval (0.674 MASE, 0.454 CRPS) compared to TSFMs and exhibits superior in-domain and out-of-domain numerical as well as reasoning performance on TFRBench. Specifically, STRIDE acts as a plug-and-play enhancement, consistently improving diverse TSFMs (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1) across various LLM configurations. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while fundamentally improving predictive accuracy.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

RubricEM: Meta-RL with Rubric-guided Policy Decomposition beyond Verifiable Rewards

Training deep research agents, namely systems that plan, search, evaluate evidence, and synthesize long-form reports, pushes reinforcement learning beyond the regime of verifiable rewards. Their outputs lack ground-truth answers, their trajectories span many tool-augmented decisions, and standard post-training offers little mechanism for turning past attempts into reusable experience. In this work, we argue that rubrics should serve not merely as final-answer evaluators, but as the shared interface that structures policy execution, judge feedback, and agent memory. Based on this view, we introduce RubricEM, a rubric-guided reinforcement learning framework that combines stagewise policy decomposition with reflection-based meta-policy evolution. RubricEM first makes research trajectories stage-aware by conditioning planning, evidence gathering, review, and synthesis on self-generated rubrics. It then assigns credit with Stage-Structured GRPO, which uses stagewise rubric judgments to provide denser semantic feedback for long-horizon optimization. In parallel, RubricEM trains a shared-backbone reflection meta-policy that distills judged trajectories into reusable rubric-grounded guidance for future attempts. The resulting RubricEM-8B achieves strong performance across four long-form research benchmarks, outperforming comparable open models and approaching proprietary deep-research systems. Beyond final performance, we perform thorough analyses to understand the key ingredients of RubricEM.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

SkillOS: Learning Skill Curation for Self-Evolving Agents

LLM-based agents are increasingly deployed to handle streaming tasks, yet they often remain one-off problem solvers that fail to learn from past interactions. Reusable skills distilled from experience provide a natural substrate for self-evolution, where high-quality skill curation serves as the key bottleneck. Existing approaches either rely on manual skill curation, prescribe heuristic skill operations, or train for short-horizon skill operations. However, they still struggle to learn complex long-term curation policies from indirect and delayed feedback. To tackle this challenge, we propose SkillOS, an experience-driven RL training recipe for learning skill curation in self-evolving agents. SkillOS pairs a frozen agent executor that retrieves and applies skills with a trainable skill curator that updates an external SkillRepo from accumulated experience. To provide learning signals for curation, we design composite rewards and train on grouped task streams based on skill-relevant task dependencies, where earlier trajectories update the SkillRepo, and later related tasks evaluate these updates. Across multi-turn agentic tasks and single-turn reasoning tasks, SkillOS consistently outperforms memory-free and strong memory-based baselines in both effectiveness and efficiency, with the learned skill curator generalizing across different executor backbones and task domains. Further analyses show that the learned curator produces more targeted skill use, while the skills in SkillRepo evolve into more richly structured Markdown files that encode higher-level meta-skills over time.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Neural Spline Search for Quantile Probabilistic Modeling

Accurate estimation of output quantiles is crucial in many use cases, where it is desired to model the range of possibility. Modeling target distribution at arbitrary quantile levels and at arbitrary input attribute levels are important to offer a comprehensive picture of the data, and requires the quantile function to be expressive enough. The quantile function describing the target distribution using quantile levels is critical for quantile regression. Although various parametric forms for the distributions (that the quantile function specifies) can be adopted, an everlasting problem is selecting the most appropriate one that can properly approximate the data distributions. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric and data-driven approach, Neural Spline Search (NSS), to represent the observed data distribution without parametric assumptions. NSS is flexible and expressive for modeling data distributions by transforming the inputs with a series of monotonic spline regressions guided by symbolic operators. We demonstrate that NSS outperforms previous methods on synthetic, real-world regression and time-series forecasting tasks.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Decoupling Local and Global Representations of Time Series

Real-world time series data are often generated from several sources of variation. Learning representations that capture the factors contributing to this variability enables a better understanding of the data via its underlying generative process and improves performance on downstream machine learning tasks. This paper proposes a novel generative approach for learning representations for the global and local factors of variation in time series. The local representation of each sample models non-stationarity over time with a stochastic process prior, and the global representation of the sample encodes the time-independent characteristics. To encourage decoupling between the representations, we introduce counterfactual regularization that minimizes the mutual information between the two variables. In experiments, we demonstrate successful recovery of the true local and global variability factors on simulated data, and show that representations learned using our method yield superior performance on downstream tasks on real-world datasets. We believe that the proposed way of defining representations is beneficial for data modelling and yields better insights into the complexity of real-world data.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

DISSECT: Disentangled Simultaneous Explanations via Concept Traversals

Explaining deep learning model inferences is a promising venue for scientific understanding, improving safety, uncovering hidden biases, evaluating fairness, and beyond, as argued by many scholars. One of the principal benefits of counterfactual explanations is allowing users to explore "what-if" scenarios through what does not and cannot exist in the data, a quality that many other forms of explanation such as heatmaps and influence functions are inherently incapable of doing. However, most previous work on generative explainability cannot disentangle important concepts effectively, produces unrealistic examples, or fails to retain relevant information. We propose a novel approach, DISSECT, that jointly trains a generator, a discriminator, and a concept disentangler to overcome such challenges using little supervision. DISSECT generates Concept Traversals (CTs), defined as a sequence of generated examples with increasing degrees of concepts that influence a classifier's decision. By training a generative model from a classifier's signal, DISSECT offers a way to discover a classifier's inherent "notion" of distinct concepts automatically rather than rely on user-predefined concepts. We show that DISSECT produces CTs that (1) disentangle several concepts, (2) are influential to a classifier's decision and are coupled to its reasoning due to joint training (3), are realistic, (4) preserve relevant information, and (5) are stable across similar inputs. We validate DISSECT on several challenging synthetic and realistic datasets where previous methods fall short of satisfying desirable criteria for interpretability and show that it performs consistently well and better than existing methods. Finally, we present experiments showing applications of DISSECT for detecting potential biases of a classifier and identifying spurious artifacts that impact predictions.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

FormNet: Structural Encoding beyond Sequential Modeling in Form Document Information Extraction

Sequence modeling has demonstrated state-of-the-art performance on natural language and document understanding tasks. However, it is challenging to correctly serialize tokens in form-like documents in practice due to their variety of layout patterns. We propose FormNet, a structure-aware sequence model to mitigate the suboptimal serialization of forms. First, we design Rich Attention that leverages the spatial relationship between tokens in a form for more precise attention score calculation. Second, we construct Super-Tokens for each word by embedding representations from their neighboring tokens through graph convolutions. FormNet therefore explicitly recovers local syntactic information that may have been lost during serialization. In experiments, FormNet outperforms existing methods with a more compact model size and less pre-training data, establishing new state-of-the-art performance on CORD, FUNSD and Payment benchmarks.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Learning Instance-Specific Adaptation for Cross-Domain Segmentation

We propose a test-time adaptation method for cross-domain image segmentation. Our method is simple: Given a new unseen instance at test time, we adapt a pre-trained model by conducting instance-specific BatchNorm (statistics) calibration. Our approach has two core components. First, we replace the manually designed BatchNorm calibration rule with a learnable module. Second, we leverage strong data augmentation to simulate random domain shifts for learning the calibration rule. In contrast to existing domain adaptation methods, our method does not require accessing the target domain data at training time or conducting computationally expensive test-time model training/optimization. Equipping our method with models trained by standard recipes achieves significant improvement, comparing favorably with several state-of-the-art domain generalization and one-shot unsupervised domain adaptation approaches. Combining our method with the domain generalization methods further improves performance, reaching a new state of the art.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

On Completeness-aware Concept-Based Explanations in Deep Neural Networks

Human explanations of high-level decisions are often expressed in terms of key concepts the decisions are based on. In this paper, we study such concept-based explainability for Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). First, we define the notion of completeness, which quantifies how sufficient a particular set of concepts is in explaining a model's prediction behavior based on the assumption that complete concept scores are sufficient statistics of the model prediction. Next, we propose a concept discovery method that aims to infer a complete set of concepts that are additionally encouraged to be interpretable, which addresses the limitations of existing methods on concept explanations. To define an importance score for each discovered concept, we adapt game-theoretic notions to aggregate over sets and propose ConceptSHAP. Via proposed metrics and user studies, on a synthetic dataset with apriori-known concept explanations, as well as on real-world image and language datasets, we validate the effectiveness of our method in finding concepts that are both complete in explaining the decisions and interpretable. (The code is released at https://github.com/chihkuanyeh/concept_exp)

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Robust Contrastive Learning Using Negative Samples with Diminished Semantics

Unsupervised learning has recently made exceptional progress because of the development of more effective contrastive learning methods. However, CNNs are prone to depend on low-level features that humans deem non-semantic. This dependency has been conjectured to induce a lack of robustness to image perturbations or domain shift. In this paper, we show that by generating carefully designed negative samples, contrastive learning can learn more robust representations with less dependence on such features. Contrastive learning utilizes positive pairs that preserve semantic information while perturbing superficial features in the training images. Similarly, we propose to generate negative samples in a reversed way, where only the superfluous instead of the semantic features are preserved. We develop two methods, texture-based and patch-based augmentations, to generate negative samples. These samples achieve better generalization, especially under out-of-domain settings. We also analyze our method and the generated texture-based samples, showing that texture features are indispensable in classifying particular ImageNet classes and especially finer classes. We also show that model bias favors texture and shape features differently under different test settings. Our code, trained models, and ImageNet-Texture dataset can be found at https://github.com/SongweiGe/Contrastive-Learning-with-Non-Semantic-Negatives.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Self-supervise, Refine, Repeat: Improving Unsupervised Anomaly Detection

Anomaly detection (AD), separating anomalies from normal data, has many applications across domains, from security to healthcare. While most previous works were shown to be effective for cases with fully or partially labeled data, that setting is in practice less common due to labeling being particularly tedious for this task. In this paper, we focus on fully unsupervised AD, in which the entire training dataset, containing both normal and anomalous samples, is unlabeled. To tackle this problem effectively, we propose to improve the robustness of one-class classification trained on self-supervised representations using a data refinement process. Our proposed data refinement approach is based on an ensemble of one-class classifiers (OCCs), each of which is trained on a disjoint subset of training data. Representations learned by self-supervised learning on the refined data are iteratively updated as the data refinement improves. We demonstrate our method on various unsupervised AD tasks with image and tabular data. With a 10% anomaly ratio on CIFAR-10 image data / 2.5% anomaly ratio on Thyroid tabular data, the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art one-class classifier by 6.3 AUC and 12.5 average precision / 22.9 F1-score.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Interpretable Sequence Learning for COVID-19 Forecasting

We propose a novel approach that integrates machine learning into compartmental disease modeling to predict the progression of COVID-19. Our model is explainable by design as it explicitly shows how different compartments evolve and it uses interpretable encoders to incorporate covariates and improve performance. Explainability is valuable to ensure that the model's forecasts are credible to epidemiologists and to instill confidence in end-users such as policy makers and healthcare institutions. Our model can be applied at different geographic resolutions, and here we demonstrate it for states and counties in the United States. We show that our model provides more accurate forecasts, in metrics averaged across the entire US, than state-of-the-art alternatives, and that it provides qualitatively meaningful explanatory insights. Lastly, we analyze the performance of our model for different subgroups based on the subgroup distributions within the counties.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Kernel Stein Generative Modeling

We are interested in gradient-based Explicit Generative Modeling where samples can be derived from iterative gradient updates based on an estimate of the score function of the data distribution. Recent advances in Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) demonstrates impressive results with energy-based models on high-dimensional and complex data distributions. Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) is a deterministic sampling algorithm that iteratively transports a set of particles to approximate a given distribution, based on functional gradient descent that decreases the KL divergence. SVGD has promising results on several Bayesian inference applications. However, applying SVGD on high dimensional problems is still under-explored. The goal of this work is to study high dimensional inference with SVGD. We first identify key challenges in practical kernel SVGD inference in high-dimension. We propose noise conditional kernel SVGD (NCK-SVGD), that works in tandem with the recently introduced Noise Conditional Score Network estimator. NCK is crucial for successful inference with SVGD in high dimension, as it adapts the kernel to the noise level of the score estimate. As we anneal the noise, NCK-SVGD targets the real data distribution. We then extend the annealed SVGD with an entropic regularization. We show that this offers a flexible control between sample quality and diversity, and verify it empirically by precision and recall evaluations. The NCK-SVGD produces samples comparable to GANs and annealed SGLD on computer vision benchmarks, including MNIST and CIFAR-10.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Learned Interpolation for 3D Generation

In order to generate novel 3D shapes with machine learning, one must allow for interpolation. The typical approach for incorporating this creative process is to interpolate in a learned latent space so as to avoid the problem of generating unrealistic instances by exploiting the model's learned structure. The process of the interpolation is supposed to form a semantically smooth morphing. While this approach is sound for synthesizing realistic media such as lifelike portraits or new designs for everyday objects, it subjectively fails to directly model the unexpected, unrealistic, or creative. In this work, we present a method for learning how to interpolate point clouds. By encoding prior knowledge about real-world objects, the intermediate forms are both realistic and unlike any existing forms. We show not only how this method can be used to generate "creative" point clouds, but how the method can also be leveraged to generate 3D models suitable for sculpture.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access