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Researcher profile

Nikhil Chandak

Nikhil Chandak contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Artificial IntelligenceComputation and LanguageMachine LearningMultiagent SystemsRobotics

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Published work

3 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

FutureSim: Replaying World Events to Evaluate Adaptive Agents

AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.

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preprint2026arXiv

Scaling Open-Ended Reasoning to Predict the Future

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

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preprint2022arXiv

Informed Steiner Trees: Sampling and Pruning for Multi-Goal Path Finding in High Dimensions

We interleave sampling based motion planning methods with pruning ideas from minimum spanning tree algorithms to develop a new approach for solving a Multi-Goal Path Finding (MGPF) problem in high dimensional spaces. The approach alternates between sampling points from selected regions in the search space and de-emphasizing regions that may not lead to good solutions for MGPF. Our approach provides an asymptotic, 2-approximation guarantee for MGPF. We also present extensive numerical results to illustrate the advantages of our proposed approach over uniform sampling in terms of the quality of the solutions found and computation speed.

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