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Researcher profile

Ameya Prabhu

Ameya Prabhu contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningComputation and LanguageArtificial IntelligenceComputer Visioneess.IVInformation Retrieval

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Published work

5 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

FutureSim: Replaying World Events to Evaluate Adaptive Agents

AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

LLM generation novelty through the lens of semantic similarity

Generation novelty is a key indicator of an LLM's ability to generalize, yet measuring it against full pretraining corpora is computationally challenging. Existing evaluations often rely on lexical overlap, failing to detect paraphrased text, or do not consider the full pretraining corpus. We frame novelty as a semantic retrieval problem. This framing enables us to address novelty with modern embedding and indexing pipelines, allowing for efficient analysis at pre-training scale. Specifically, we propose a three-stage framework that retrieves semantically similar samples, reranks them at varying subsequence lengths, and calibrates scores using a human novelty reference for interpretability. We apply this framework to the SmolLM model family and report three key findings: (1) models draw on pre-training data across much longer sequences than previously reported; (2) some task domains systematically promote or suppress generation novelty; and (3) instruction tuning not only alters style but also increases novelty. These results highlight the value of semantic novelty analysis for studying generalization. To support reproducibility and further research, we release ~20 TB of corpus chunks and index artifacts at https://huggingface.co/datasets/stai-tuebingen/faiss-smollm

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Scaling Open-Ended Reasoning to Predict the Future

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

"You might also like this model": Data Driven Approach for Recommending Deep Learning Models for Unknown Image Datasets

For an unknown (new) classification dataset, choosing an appropriate deep learning architecture is often a recursive, time-taking, and laborious process. In this research, we propose a novel technique to recommend a suitable architecture from a repository of known models. Further, we predict the performance accuracy of the recommended architecture on the given unknown dataset, without the need for training the model. We propose a model encoder approach to learn a fixed length representation of deep learning architectures along with its hyperparameters, in an unsupervised fashion. We manually curate a repository of image datasets with corresponding known deep learning models and show that the predicted accuracy is a good estimator of the actual accuracy. We discuss the implications of the proposed approach for three benchmark images datasets and also the challenges in using the approach for text modality. To further increase the reproducibility of the proposed approach, the entire implementation is made publicly available along with the trained models.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Simple Unsupervised Multi-Object Tracking

Multi-object tracking has seen a lot of progress recently, albeit with substantial annotation costs for developing better and larger labeled datasets. In this work, we remove the need for annotated datasets by proposing an unsupervised re-identification network, thus sidestepping the labeling costs entirely, required for training. Given unlabeled videos, our proposed method (SimpleReID) first generates tracking labels using SORT and trains a ReID network to predict the generated labels using crossentropy loss. We demonstrate that SimpleReID performs substantially better than simpler alternatives, and we recover the full performance of its supervised counterpart consistently across diverse tracking frameworks. The observations are unusual because unsupervised ReID is not expected to excel in crowded scenarios with occlusions, and drastic viewpoint changes. By incorporating our unsupervised SimpleReID with CenterTrack trained on augmented still images, we establish a new state-of-the-art performance on popular datasets like MOT16/17 without using tracking supervision, beating current best (CenterTrack) by 0.2-0.3 MOTA and 4.4-4.8 IDF1 scores. We further provide evidence for limited scope for improvement in IDF1 scores beyond our unsupervised ReID in the studied settings. Our investigation suggests reconsideration towards more sophisticated, supervised, end-to-end trackers by showing promise in simpler unsupervised alternatives.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access