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Mladen Kolar

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Published work

31 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Gradient Clipping Beyond Vector Norms: A Spectral Approach for Matrix-Valued Parameters

Gradient clipping is a standard safeguard for training neural networks under noisy, heavy-tailed stochastic gradients; yet, most clipping rules treat all parameters as vectors and ignore the matrix structure of modern architectures. We show empirically that data outliers often amplify only a small number of leading singular values in layer-wise gradient matrices, while the rest of the spectrum remains largely unchanged. Motivated by this phenomenon, we propose spectral clipping, which stabilizes training by clamping singular values that exceed a threshold while preserving the singular directions. This framework generalizes classical gradient norm clipping and can be easily integrated into existing optimizers. We provide a convergence analysis for non-convex optimization with spectrally clipped SGD, yielding the optimal $\mathcal{O}\left(K^{\frac{2 - 2α}{3α- 2}}\right)$ rate for heavy-tailed noise. To minimize hyperparameter tuning, we introduce layer-wise adaptive thresholds based on moving averages or sliding-window quantiles of the top singular values. Finally, we develop efficient implementations that clip only the top $r$ singular values via randomized truncated SVD, avoiding full decompositions for large layers. We demonstrate competitive performance across synthetic heavy-tailed settings and neural network training tasks.

preprint2026arXiv

Muon with Nesterov Momentum: Heavy-Tailed Noise and (Randomized) Inexact Polar Decomposition

Most first-order optimizers treat matrix-valued parameters as vectors, ignoring the intrinsic geometry of hidden-layer weights in neural networks. Muon addresses this mismatch by updating along the polar factor of a momentum matrix, but its theoretical understanding has lagged behind practice. In particular, practical implementations incorporate Nesterov momentum, compute the polar factor only approximately, and operate with stochastic gradients that may be heavy-tailed. We close this gap by developing a convergence theory for Muon with Nesterov momentum and inexact polar decomposition in non-convex matrix optimization under heavy-tailed noise. Our analysis builds on a unified framework for inexact polar decomposition that captures practical iterative approximations such as Newton-Schulz and quantifies how their errors propagate through the optimization dynamics. Under this framework, we establish an optimal iteration and sample complexity of $O \left(\varepsilon^{\frac{-(3α-2)}{(α-1)}} \right)$ for finding an $\varepsilon$-stationary point, where $α\in(1,2]$ denotes the heavy-tail index. For the inexact-polar setting with $σ_1=0$, we also provide guarantees that do not require prior knowledge of $α$. We analyze a randomized low-rank polar decomposition that is substantially more efficient than full-space methods while remaining compatible with our theory. Numerical experiments further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed inexact and randomized variants.

preprint2022arXiv

An Adaptive Stochastic Sequential Quadratic Programming with Differentiable Exact Augmented Lagrangians

We consider solving nonlinear optimization problems with a stochastic objective and deterministic equality constraints. We assume for the objective that its evaluation, gradient, and Hessian are inaccessible, while one can compute their stochastic estimates by, for example, subsampling. We propose a stochastic algorithm based on sequential quadratic programming (SQP) that uses a differentiable exact augmented Lagrangian as the merit function. To motivate our algorithm design, we first revisit and simplify an old SQP method \citep{Lucidi1990Recursive} developed for solving deterministic problems, which serves as the skeleton of our stochastic algorithm. Based on the simplified deterministic algorithm, we then propose a non-adaptive SQP for dealing with stochastic objective, where the gradient and Hessian are replaced by stochastic estimates but the stepsizes are deterministic and prespecified. Finally, we incorporate a recent stochastic line search procedure \citep{Paquette2020Stochastic} into the non-adaptive stochastic SQP to adaptively select the random stepsizes, which leads to an adaptive stochastic SQP. The global "almost sure" convergence for both non-adaptive and adaptive SQP methods is established. Numerical experiments on nonlinear problems in CUTEst test set demonstrate the superiority of the adaptive algorithm.

preprint2022arXiv

Dynamic Regret Minimization for Control of Non-stationary Linear Dynamical Systems

We consider the problem of controlling a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) system over a finite horizon $T$ with fixed and known cost matrices $Q,R$, but unknown and non-stationary dynamics $\{A_t, B_t\}$. The sequence of dynamics matrices can be arbitrary, but with a total variation, $V_T$, assumed to be $o(T)$ and unknown to the controller. Under the assumption that a sequence of stabilizing, but potentially sub-optimal controllers is available for all $t$, we present an algorithm that achieves the optimal dynamic regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(V_T^{2/5}T^{3/5}\right)$. With piece-wise constant dynamics, our algorithm achieves the optimal regret of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{ST})$ where $S$ is the number of switches. The crux of our algorithm is an adaptive non-stationarity detection strategy, which builds on an approach recently developed for contextual Multi-armed Bandit problems. We also argue that non-adaptive forgetting (e.g., restarting or using sliding window learning with a static window size) may not be regret optimal for the LQR problem, even when the window size is optimally tuned with the knowledge of $V_T$. The main technical challenge in the analysis of our algorithm is to prove that the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator has a small bias when the parameter to be estimated is non-stationary. Our analysis also highlights that the key motif driving the regret is that the LQR problem is in spirit a bandit problem with linear feedback and locally quadratic cost. This motif is more universal than the LQR problem itself, and therefore we believe our results should find wider application.

preprint2022arXiv

FuDGE: A Method to Estimate a Functional Differential Graph in a High-Dimensional Setting

We consider the problem of estimating the difference between two undirected functional graphical models with shared structures. In many applications, data are naturally regarded as a vector of random functions rather than as a vector of scalars. For example, electroencephalography (EEG) data are treated more appropriately as functions of time. In such a problem, not only can the number of functions measured per sample be large, but each function is itself an infinite-dimensional object, making estimation of model parameters challenging. This is further complicated by the fact that curves are usually observed only at discrete time points. We first define a functional differential graph that captures the differences between two functional graphical models and formally characterize when the functional differential graph is well defined. We then propose a method, FuDGE, that directly estimates the functional differential graph without first estimating each individual graph. This is particularly beneficial in settings where the individual graphs are dense but the differential graph is sparse. We show that FuDGE consistently estimates the functional differential graph even in a high-dimensional setting for both fully observed and discretely observed function paths. We illustrate the finite sample properties of our method through simulation studies. We also propose a competing method, the Joint Functional Graphical Lasso, which generalizes the Joint Graphical Lasso to the functional setting. Finally, we apply our method to EEG data to uncover differences in functional brain connectivity between a group of individuals with alcohol use disorder and a control group.

preprint2022arXiv

Joint Gaussian Graphical Model Estimation: A Survey

Graphs from complex systems often share a partial underlying structure across domains while retaining individual features. Thus, identifying common structures can shed light on the underlying signal, for instance, when applied to scientific discoveries or clinical diagnoses. Furthermore, growing evidence shows that the shared structure across domains boosts the estimation power of graphs, particularly for high-dimensional data. However, building a joint estimator to extract the common structure may be more complicated than it seems, most often due to data heterogeneity across sources. This manuscript surveys recent work on statistical inference of joint Gaussian graphical models, identifying model structures that fit various data generation processes. Simulations under different data generation processes are implemented with detailed discussions on the choice of models.

preprint2022arXiv

Personalized Federated Learning with Multiple Known Clusters

We consider the problem of personalized federated learning when there are known cluster structures within users. An intuitive approach would be to regularize the parameters so that users in the same cluster share similar model weights. The distances between the clusters can then be regularized to reflect the similarity between different clusters of users. We develop an algorithm that allows each cluster to communicate independently and derive the convergence results. We study a hierarchical linear model to theoretically demonstrate that our approach outperforms agents learning independently and agents learning a single shared weight. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of our approach using both simulated and real-world data.

preprint2022arXiv

Pessimism meets VCG: Learning Dynamic Mechanism Design via Offline Reinforcement Learning

Dynamic mechanism design has garnered significant attention from both computer scientists and economists in recent years. By allowing agents to interact with the seller over multiple rounds, where agents' reward functions may change with time and are state-dependent, the framework is able to model a rich class of real-world problems. In these works, the interaction between agents and sellers is often assumed to follow a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We focus on the setting where the reward and transition functions of such an MDP are not known a priori, and we are attempting to recover the optimal mechanism using an a priori collected data set. In the setting where the function approximation is employed to handle large state spaces, with only mild assumptions on the expressiveness of the function class, we are able to design a dynamic mechanism using offline reinforcement learning algorithms. Moreover, learned mechanisms approximately have three key desiderata: efficiency, individual rationality, and truthfulness. Our algorithm is based on the pessimism principle and only requires a mild assumption on the coverage of the offline data set. To the best of our knowledge, our work provides the first offline RL algorithm for dynamic mechanism design without assuming uniform coverage.

preprint2020arXiv

Estimating Differential Latent Variable Graphical Models with Applications to Brain Connectivity

Differential graphical models are designed to represent the difference between the conditional dependence structures of two groups, thus are of particular interest for scientific investigation. Motivated by modern applications, this manuscript considers an extended setting where each group is generated by a latent variable Gaussian graphical model. Due to the existence of latent factors, the differential network is decomposed into sparse and low-rank components, both of which are symmetric indefinite matrices. We estimate these two components simultaneously using a two-stage procedure: (i) an initialization stage, which computes a simple, consistent estimator, and (ii) a convergence stage, implemented using a projected alternating gradient descent algorithm applied to a nonconvex objective, initialized using the output of the first stage. We prove that given the initialization, the estimator converges linearly with a nontrivial, minimax optimal statistical error. Experiments on synthetic and real data illustrate that the proposed nonconvex procedure outperforms existing methods.

preprint2020arXiv

Estimation of a Low-rank Topic-Based Model for Information Cascades

We consider the problem of estimating the latent structure of a social network based on the observed information diffusion events, or cascades, where the observations for a given cascade consist of only the timestamps of infection for infected nodes but not the source of the infection. Most of the existing work on this problem has focused on estimating a diffusion matrix without any structural assumptions on it. In this paper, we propose a novel model based on the intuition that an information is more likely to propagate among two nodes if they are interested in similar topics which are also prominent in the information content. In particular, our model endows each node with an influence vector (which measures how authoritative the node is on each topic) and a receptivity vector (which measures how susceptible the node is for each topic). We show how this node-topic structure can be estimated from the observed cascades, and prove the consistency of the estimator. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate the improved performance and better interpretability of our model compared to existing state-of-the-art methods.

preprint2020arXiv

High-dimensional Index Volatility Models via Stein's Identity

We study the estimation of the parametric components of single and multiple index volatility models. Using the first- and second-order Stein's identities, we develop methods that are applicable for the estimation of the variance index in the high-dimensional setting requiring finite moment condition, which allows for heavy-tailed data. Our approach complements the existing literature in the low-dimensional setting, while relaxing the conditions on estimation, and provides a novel approach in the high-dimensional setting. We prove that the statistical rate of convergence of our variance index estimators consists of a parametric rate and a nonparametric rate, where the latter appears from the estimation of the mean link function. However, under standard assumptions, the parametric rate dominates the rate of convergence and our results match the minimax optimal rate for the mean index estimation. Simulation results illustrate finite sample properties of our methodology and back our theoretical conclusions.

preprint2020arXiv

Posterior Ratio Estimation of Latent Variables

Density Ratio Estimation has attracted attention from the machine learning community due to its ability to compare the underlying distributions of two datasets. However, in some applications, we want to compare distributions of random variables that are \emph{inferred} from observations. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the ratio between two posterior probability density functions of a latent variable. Particularly, we assume the posterior ratio function can be well-approximated by a parametric model, which is then estimated using observed information and prior samples. We prove the consistency of our estimator and the asymptotic normality of the estimated parameters as the number of prior samples tending to infinity. Finally, we validate our theories using numerical experiments and demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method through some real-world applications.

preprint2020arXiv

Semiparametric Nonlinear Bipartite Graph Representation Learning with Provable Guarantees

Graph representation learning is a ubiquitous task in machine learning where the goal is to embed each vertex into a low-dimensional vector space. We consider the bipartite graph and formalize its representation learning problem as a statistical estimation problem of parameters in a semiparametric exponential family distribution. The bipartite graph is assumed to be generated by a semiparametric exponential family distribution, whose parametric component is given by the proximity of outputs of two one-layer neural networks, while nonparametric (nuisance) component is the base measure. Neural networks take high-dimensional features as inputs and output embedding vectors. In this setting, the representation learning problem is equivalent to recovering the weight matrices. The main challenges of estimation arise from the nonlinearity of activation functions and the nonparametric nuisance component of the distribution. To overcome these challenges, we propose a pseudo-likelihood objective based on the rank-order decomposition technique and focus on its local geometry. We show that the proposed objective is strongly convex in a neighborhood around the ground truth, so that a gradient descent-based method achieves linear convergence rate. Moreover, we prove that the sample complexity of the problem is linear in dimensions (up to logarithmic factors), which is consistent with parametric Gaussian models. However, our estimator is robust to any model misspecification within the exponential family, which is validated in extensive experiments.

preprint2020arXiv

Simultaneous Inference for Pairwise Graphical Models with Generalized Score Matching

Probabilistic graphical models provide a flexible yet parsimonious framework for modeling dependencies among nodes in networks. There is a vast literature on parameter estimation and consistent model selection for graphical models. However, in many of the applications, scientists are also interested in quantifying the uncertainty associated with the estimated parameters and selected models, which current literature has not addressed thoroughly. In this paper, we propose a novel estimator for statistical inference on edge parameters in pairwise graphical models based on generalized Hyvärinen scoring rule. Hyvärinen scoring rule is especially useful in cases where the normalizing constant cannot be obtained efficiently in a closed form, which is a common problem for graphical models, including Ising models and truncated Gaussian graphical models. Our estimator allows us to perform statistical inference for general graphical models whereas the existing works mostly focus on statistical inference for Gaussian graphical models where finding normalizing constant is computationally tractable. Under mild conditions that are typically assumed in the literature for consistent estimation, we prove that our proposed estimator is $\sqrt{n}$-consistent and asymptotically normal, which allows us to construct confidence intervals and build hypothesis tests for edge parameters. Moreover, we show how our proposed method can be applied to test hypotheses that involve a large number of model parameters simultaneously. We illustrate validity of our estimator through extensive simulation studies on a diverse collection of data-generating processes.

preprint2020arXiv

Statistical Inference for Networks of High-Dimensional Point Processes

Fueled in part by recent applications in neuroscience, the multivariate Hawkes process has become a popular tool for modeling the network of interactions among high-dimensional point process data. While evaluating the uncertainty of the network estimates is critical in scientific applications, existing methodological and theoretical work has primarily addressed estimation. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a new statistical inference procedure for high-dimensional Hawkes processes. The key ingredient for this inference procedure is a new concentration inequality on the first- and second-order statistics for integrated stochastic processes, which summarize the entire history of the process. Combining recent results on martingale central limit theory with the new concentration inequality, we then characterize the convergence rate of the test statistics. We illustrate finite sample validity of our inferential tools via extensive simulations and demonstrate their utility by applying them to a neuron spike train data set.

preprint2016arXiv

Distributed Multi-Task Learning with Shared Representation

We study the problem of distributed multi-task learning with shared representation, where each machine aims to learn a separate, but related, task in an unknown shared low-dimensional subspaces, i.e. when the predictor matrix has low rank. We consider a setting where each task is handled by a different machine, with samples for the task available locally on the machine, and study communication-efficient methods for exploiting the shared structure.

preprint2016arXiv

Efficient Distributed Learning with Sparsity

We propose a novel, efficient approach for distributed sparse learning in high-dimensions, where observations are randomly partitioned across machines. Computationally, at each round our method only requires the master machine to solve a shifted ell_1 regularized M-estimation problem, and other workers to compute the gradient. In respect of communication, the proposed approach provably matches the estimation error bound of centralized methods within constant rounds of communications (ignoring logarithmic factors). We conduct extensive experiments on both simulated and real world datasets, and demonstrate encouraging performances on high-dimensional regression and classification tasks.

preprint2016arXiv

Sketching Meets Random Projection in the Dual: A Provable Recovery Algorithm for Big and High-dimensional Data

Sketching techniques have become popular for scaling up machine learning algorithms by reducing the sample size or dimensionality of massive data sets, while still maintaining the statistical power of big data. In this paper, we study sketching from an optimization point of view: we first show that the iterative Hessian sketch is an optimization process with preconditioning, and develop accelerated iterative Hessian sketch via the searching the conjugate direction; we then establish primal-dual connections between the Hessian sketch and dual random projection, and apply the preconditioned conjugate gradient approach on the dual problem, which leads to the accelerated iterative dual random projection methods. Finally to tackle the challenges from both large sample size and high-dimensionality, we propose the primal-dual sketch, which iteratively sketches the primal and dual formulations. We show that using a logarithmic number of calls to solvers of small scale problem, primal-dual sketch is able to recover the optimum of the original problem up to arbitrary precision. The proposed algorithms are validated via extensive experiments on synthetic and real data sets which complements our theoretical results.

preprint2015arXiv

A General Framework for Robust Testing and Confidence Regions in High-Dimensional Quantile Regression

We propose a robust inferential procedure for assessing uncertainties of parameter estimation in high-dimensional linear models, where the dimension $p$ can grow exponentially fast with the sample size $n$. Our method combines the de-biasing technique with the composite quantile function to construct an estimator that is asymptotically normal. Hence it can be used to construct valid confidence intervals and conduct hypothesis tests. Our estimator is robust and does not require the existence of first or second moment of the noise distribution. It also preserves efficiency in the sense that the worst case efficiency loss is less than 30\% compared to the square-loss-based de-biased Lasso estimator. In many cases our estimator is close to or better than the latter, especially when the noise is heavy-tailed. Our de-biasing procedure does not require solving the $L_1$-penalized composite quantile regression. Instead, it allows for any first-stage estimator with desired convergence rate and empirical sparsity. The paper also provides new proof techniques for developing theoretical guarantees of inferential procedures with non-smooth loss functions. To establish the main results, we exploit the local curvature of the conditional expectation of composite quantile loss and apply empirical process theories to control the difference between empirical quantities and their conditional expectations. Our results are established under weaker assumptions compared to existing work on inference for high-dimensional quantile regression. Furthermore, we consider a high-dimensional simultaneous test for the regression parameters by applying the Gaussian approximation and multiplier bootstrap theories. We also study distributed learning and exploit the divide-and-conquer estimator to reduce computation complexity when the sample size is massive. Finally, we provide empirical results to verify the theory.

preprint2014arXiv

Inference for Sparse Conditional Precision Matrices

Given $n$ i.i.d. observations of a random vector $(X,Z)$, where $X$ is a high-dimensional vector and $Z$ is a low-dimensional index variable, we study the problem of estimating the conditional inverse covariance matrix $Ω(z) = (E[(X-E[X \mid Z])(X-E[X \mid Z])^T \mid Z=z])^{-1}$ under the assumption that the set of non-zero elements is small and does not depend on the index variable. We develop a novel procedure that combines the ideas of the local constant smoothing and the group Lasso for estimating the conditional inverse covariance matrix. A proximal iterative smoothing algorithm is used to solve the corresponding convex optimization problems. We prove that our procedure recovers the conditional independence assumptions of the distribution $X \mid Z$ with high probability. This result is established by developing a uniform deviation bound for the high-dimensional conditional covariance matrix from its population counterpart, which may be of independent interest. Furthermore, we develop point-wise confidence intervals for individual elements of the conditional inverse covariance matrix. We perform extensive simulation studies, in which we demonstrate that our proposed procedure outperforms sensible competitors. We illustrate our proposal on a S&P 500 stock price data set.

preprint2014arXiv

Mean and variance estimation in high-dimensional heteroscedastic models with non-convex penalties

Despite its prevalence in statistical datasets, heteroscedasticity (non-constant sample variances) has been largely ignored in the high-dimensional statistics literature. Recently, studies have shown that the Lasso can accommodate heteroscedastic errors, with minor algorithmic modifications (Belloni et al., 2012; Gautier and Tsybakov, 2013). In this work, we study heteroscedastic regression with linear mean model and log-linear variances model with sparse high-dimensional parameters. In this work, we propose estimating variances in a post-Lasso fashion, which is followed by weighted-least squares mean estimation. These steps employ non-convex penalties as in Fan and Li (2001), which allows us to prove oracle properties for both post-Lasso variance and mean parameter estimates. We reinforce our theoretical findings with experiments.

preprint2013arXiv

Estimating Undirected Graphs Under Weak Assumptions

We consider the problem of providing nonparametric confidence guarantees for undirected graphs under weak assumptions. In particular, we do not assume sparsity, incoherence or Normality. We allow the dimension $D$ to increase with the sample size $n$. First, we prove lower bounds that show that if we want accurate inferences with low assumptions then there are limitations on the dimension as a function of sample size. When the dimension increases slowly with sample size, we show that methods based on Normal approximations and on the bootstrap lead to valid inferences and we provide Berry-Esseen bounds on the accuracy of the Normal approximation. When the dimension is large relative to sample size, accurate inferences for graphs under low assumptions are not possible. Instead we propose to estimate something less demanding than the entire partial correlation graph. In particular, we consider: cluster graphs, restricted partial correlation graphs and correlation graphs.

preprint2013arXiv

Graph Estimation From Multi-attribute Data

Many real world network problems often concern multivariate nodal attributes such as image, textual, and multi-view feature vectors on nodes, rather than simple univariate nodal attributes. The existing graph estimation methods built on Gaussian graphical models and covariance selection algorithms can not handle such data, neither can the theories developed around such methods be directly applied. In this paper, we propose a new principled framework for estimating graphs from multi-attribute data. Instead of estimating the partial correlation as in current literature, our method estimates the partial canonical correlations that naturally accommodate complex nodal features. Computationally, we provide an efficient algorithm which utilizes the multi-attribute structure. Theoretically, we provide sufficient conditions which guarantee consistent graph recovery. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate performance of our method under various conditions. Furthermore, we provide illustrative applications to uncovering gene regulatory networks from gene and protein profiles, and uncovering brain connectivity graph from functional magnetic resonance imaging data.

preprint2013arXiv

Optimal Feature Selection in High-Dimensional Discriminant Analysis

We consider the high-dimensional discriminant analysis problem. For this problem, different methods have been proposed and justified by establishing exact convergence rates for the classification risk, as well as the l2 convergence results to the discriminative rule. However, sharp theoretical analysis for the variable selection performance of these procedures have not been established, even though model interpretation is of fundamental importance in scientific data analysis. This paper bridges the gap by providing sharp sufficient conditions for consistent variable selection using the sparse discriminant analysis (Mai et al., 2012). Through careful analysis, we establish rates of convergence that are significantly faster than the best known results and admit an optimal scaling of the sample size n, dimensionality p, and sparsity level s in the high-dimensional setting. Sufficient conditions are complemented by the necessary information theoretic limits on the variable selection problem in the context of high-dimensional discriminant analysis. Exploiting a numerical equivalence result, our method also establish the optimal results for the ROAD estimator (Fan et al., 2012) and the sparse optimal scaling estimator (Clemmensen et al., 2011). Furthermore, we analyze an exhaustive search procedure, whose performance serves as a benchmark, and show that it is variable selection consistent under weaker conditions. Extensive simulations demonstrating the sharpness of the bounds are also provided.

preprint2013arXiv

Recovering Block-structured Activations Using Compressive Measurements

We consider the problems of detection and localization of a contiguous block of weak activation in a large matrix, from a small number of noisy, possibly adaptive, compressive (linear) measurements. This is closely related to the problem of compressed sensing, where the task is to estimate a sparse vector using a small number of linear measurements. Contrary to results in compressed sensing, where it has been shown that neither adaptivity nor contiguous structure help much, we show that for reliable localization the magnitude of the weakest signals is strongly influenced by both structure and the ability to choose measurements adaptively while for detection neither adaptivity nor structure reduce the requirement on the magnitude of the signal. We characterize the precise tradeoffs between the various problem parameters, the signal strength and the number of measurements required to reliably detect and localize the block of activation. The sufficient conditions are complemented with information theoretic lower bounds.

preprint2012arXiv

Variance function estimation in high-dimensions

We consider the high-dimensional heteroscedastic regression model, where the mean and the log variance are modeled as a linear combination of input variables. Existing literature on high-dimensional linear regres- sion models has largely ignored non-constant error variances, even though they commonly occur in a variety of applications ranging from biostatis- tics to finance. In this paper we study a class of non-convex penalized pseudolikelihood estimators for both the mean and variance parameters. We show that the Heteroscedastic Iterative Penalized Pseudolikelihood Optimizer (HIPPO) achieves the oracle property, that is, we prove that the rates of convergence are the same as if the true model was known. We demonstrate numerical properties of the procedure on a simulation study and real world data.

preprint2010arXiv

Estimating Networks With Jumps

We study the problem of estimating a temporally varying coefficient and varying structure (VCVS) graphical model underlying nonstationary time series data, such as social states of interacting individuals or microarray expression profiles of gene networks, as opposed to i.i.d. data from an invariant model widely considered in current literature of structural estimation. In particular, we consider the scenario in which the model evolves in a piece-wise constant fashion. We propose a procedure that minimizes the so-called TESLA loss (i.e., temporally smoothed L1 regularized regression), which allows jointly estimating the partition boundaries of the VCVS model and the coefficient of the sparse precision matrix on each block of the partition. A highly scalable proximal gradient method is proposed to solve the resultant convex optimization problem; and the conditions for sparsistent estimation and the convergence rate of both the partition boundaries and the network structure are established for the first time for such estimators.

preprint2010arXiv

Estimating time-varying networks

Stochastic networks are a plausible representation of the relational information among entities in dynamic systems such as living cells or social communities. While there is a rich literature in estimating a static or temporally invariant network from observation data, little has been done toward estimating time-varying networks from time series of entity attributes. In this paper we present two new machine learning methods for estimating time-varying networks, which both build on a temporally smoothed $l_1$-regularized logistic regression formalism that can be cast as a standard convex-optimization problem and solved efficiently using generic solvers scalable to large networks. We report promising results on recovering simulated time-varying networks. For real data sets, we reverse engineer the latent sequence of temporally rewiring political networks between Senators from the US Senate voting records and the latent evolving regulatory networks underlying 588 genes across the life cycle of Drosophila melanogaster from the microarray time course.

preprint2010arXiv

Ultra-high Dimensional Multiple Output Learning With Simultaneous Orthogonal Matching Pursuit: A Sure Screening Approach

We propose a novel application of the Simultaneous Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (S-OMP) procedure for sparsistant variable selection in ultra-high dimensional multi-task regression problems. Screening of variables, as introduced in \cite{fan08sis}, is an efficient and highly scalable way to remove many irrelevant variables from the set of all variables, while retaining all the relevant variables. S-OMP can be applied to problems with hundreds of thousands of variables and once the number of variables is reduced to a manageable size, a more computationally demanding procedure can be used to identify the relevant variables for each of the regression outputs. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to utilize relatedness of multiple outputs to perform fast screening of relevant variables. As our main theoretical contribution, we prove that, asymptotically, S-OMP is guaranteed to reduce an ultra-high number of variables to below the sample size without losing true relevant variables. We also provide formal evidence that a modified Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can be used to efficiently determine the number of iterations in S-OMP. We further provide empirical evidence on the benefit of variable selection using multiple regression outputs jointly, as opposed to performing variable selection for each output separately. The finite sample performance of S-OMP is demonstrated on extensive simulation studies, and on a genetic association mapping problem. $Keywords$ Adaptive Lasso; Greedy forward regression; Orthogonal matching pursuit; Multi-output regression; Multi-task learning; Simultaneous orthogonal matching pursuit; Sure screening; Variable selection

preprint2010arXiv

Union Support Recovery in Multi-task Learning

We sharply characterize the performance of different penalization schemes for the problem of selecting the relevant variables in the multi-task setting. Previous work focuses on the regression problem where conditions on the design matrix complicate the analysis. A clearer and simpler picture emerges by studying the Normal means model. This model, often used in the field of statistics, is a simplified model that provides a laboratory for studying complex procedures.