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Researcher profile

Masaaki Imaizumi

Masaaki Imaizumi contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine Learningmath.STStatistics TheoryMethodologyecon.EMArtificial Intelligencemath.OCComputation and Languagemath.APmath.DSmath.PR

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Published work

18 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency

Large language models often improve reasoning by sampling multiple outputs and aggregating their final answers, but precise and efficient control of error levels remains a challenging task. In particular, deciding when to stop sampling remains difficult when the stopping rule is data-dependent and the set of possible answers is not known in advance. We study anytime-valid certification of a prespecified target answer as the unique mode of the model's response distribution, a guarantee distinct from answer correctness. We propose the Certification by Intersection-union Testing with E-processes (CITE) algorithm, which provably controls false certification at any prescribed level under arbitrary data-driven stopping, without requiring prior knowledge of the answer category set. We also prove an category-set-size-free stopping-time rate, establish matching minimax lower bounds up to constants in the main regime, and extend the construction to confidence-weighted voting. Simulations and LLM self-consistency experiments show empirical error control and improved certification in diffuse-tail settings.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Extended Wasserstein-GAN Approach to Causal Distribution Learning: Density-Free Estimation and Minimax Optimality

Distributional causal inference requires estimating not only average treatment effects but also interventional outcome distributions, including quantiles, tail risks, and policy-dependent uncertainty. As a method for distributional causal inference, generative adversarial network (GAN)-based counterfactual methods are flexible tools for this task. However, these methods have several limitations. First, the objectives of certain techniques do not coincide with the statistical risk of the identifiable causal target, and therefore provide limited theoretical guarantees regarding estimable counterfactual distributions or optimality. Second, they tend to rely on unstable density-based methods, such as density ratio estimation. In this paper, we propose GANICE (GAN for Interventional Conditional Estimation) with several advantages: it (i) clarifies the conditional interventional distribution for each treatment--covariate state as the causal estimation target; (ii) estimates the conditional distribution such that its averaged Wasserstein risk is minimized; (iii) establishes minimax optimality. GANICE achieves these advantages through the introduction of the extended Wasserstein distance, the incorporation of a cellwise critic in its dual, and an optimality proof based on Besov space theory. Our experiments demonstrate that GANICE consistently outperforms existing methods.

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preprint2026arXiv

Infinite-Width Limit of a Single Attention Layer: Analysis via Tensor Programs

In modern theoretical analyses of neural networks, the infinite-width limit is often invoked to justify Gaussian approximations of neuron preactivations (e.g., via neural network Gaussian processes or Tensor Programs). However, these Gaussian-based asymptotic theories have so far been unable to capture the behavior of attention layers, except under special regimes such as infinitely many heads or tailored scaling schemes. In this paper, leveraging the Tensor Programs framework, we rigorously identify the infinite-width limit distribution of variables within a single attention layer under realistic architectural dimensionality and standard $1/\sqrt{n}$-scaling with $n$ dimensionality. We derive the exact form of this limit law without resorting to infinite-head approximations or tailored scalings, demonstrating that it departs fundamentally from Gaussianity. This limiting distribution exhibits non-Gaussianity from a hierarchical structure, being Gaussian conditional on the random similarity scores. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical predictions, confirming the effectiveness of our theory at finite width and accurate description of finite-head attentions. Beyond characterizing a standalone attention layer, our findings lay the groundwork for developing a unified theory of deep Transformer architectures in the infinite-width regime.

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preprint2026arXiv

Minimax Optimal Estimation of Transport-Growth Pairs in Unbalanced Optimal Transport

Unbalanced optimal transport (UOT) extends classical optimal transport to measures with different total masses, but statistical guarantees for Monge-type estimation remain limited. We study unbalanced transport with quadratic cost and Kullback-Leibler marginal penalties and argue that the natural population target is not a map alone, but a transport-growth pair. Consequently, we develop two estimators for the transport-growth pairs under several setups: an optimal transport plan-based estimator for a general case, and a kernel-based estimator for a case with smooth densities. We also show that an error of the estimator achieves the minimax optimal rate by deriving a matching lower bound of the minimax risk. Our main technical contribution is a value-based stability reduction that converts perturbations of the UOT objective into transport and growth risks through a UOT gap condition. These results provide a statistical foundation for Monge-type estimation in unbalanced optimal transport.

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preprint2026arXiv

Spectrum-Adaptive Generalization Bounds for Trained Deep Transformers

Understanding why trained Transformers generalize well is a fundamental problem in modern machine learning theory, and complexity-based generalization bounds provide a principled way to study this question. While existing norm-based bounds for Transformers remove the explicit polynomial dependence on the hidden dimension, they typically impose fixed norm constraints specified a priori and can exhibit unfavorable exponential dependence on depth. In this paper, we derive spectrum-adaptive post hoc generalization bounds for multi-layer Transformers. Under layerwise spectral norm control, the bounds are expressed in terms of layerwise Schatten quantities of the query-key, value, and feedforward weight matrices. Since the Schatten indices need not be fixed a priori and can instead be selected after training, separately for each matrix type and layer, the bounds adaptively trade off spectral complexity against the dimension- and depth-dependent factors according to the learned singular-value profiles. Empirical comparisons of BERT-adapted proxies for the leading complexity factors suggest that the proxies induced by our bounds grow more slowly with depth and hidden dimension than the corresponding norm-based proxies. Overall, our results provide a complexity-based perspective on how the spectral structure of trained Transformers is reflected in generalization analyses.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Training-Induced Escape from Token Clustering in a Mean-Field Formulation of Transformers

Transformers perform inference by iteratively transforming token representations across layers. This layerwise computation has been studied empirically, and recent mean-field theories of Transformer dynamics explain how attention can drive token distributions toward clustering. However, existing mean-field analyses largely treat model parameters as prescribed, leaving open how training reshapes this clustering picture. We study this question in a noisy mean-field Transformer in which only a parameter-linear FFN is trained under $L^2$ regularization. We find and analyze a training-induced phase in the dynamics: after initially following attention-driven clustering, the token distribution can leave the clustered regime near the final layers. Our mathematical analysis is based on an entropy-regularized interaction energy that captures the clustering bias of attention. More broadly, our results point toward a training-aware mean-field theory of Transformer dynamics, in which training and inference dynamics are treated together.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Why Mean Pooling Works: Quantifying Second-Order Collapse in Text Embeddings

For constructing text embeddings, mean pooling, which averages token embeddings, is the standard approach. This paper examines whether mean pooling actually works well in real models. First, we note that mean pooling can collapse information beyond the first-order statistics of the token embeddings, such as second-order statistics that capture their spatial structure, potentially mapping distinct token embedding distributions to similar text embeddings. Motivated by this concern, we propose a simple metric to quantify such a collapse induced by mean pooling. Then, using this metric, we empirically measure how often this collapse occurs in actual models and texts, and find that modern text encoders are robust to this collapse. In particular, contrastive fine-tuned text encoders tend to be less prone to the collapse than their pretrained backbone models. We also find that the robustness of these text encoders lies in the concentration of token embeddings within each text. In addition, we find that robustness to the collapse, as quantified by our proposed metric, correlates with downstream task performance. Overall, our findings offer a new perspective on why modern text encoders remain effective despite relying on seemingly coarse mean pooling.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Best Arm Identification with Contextual Information under a Small Gap

We study the best-arm identification (BAI) problem with a fixed budget and contextual (covariate) information. In each round of an adaptive experiment, after observing contextual information, we choose a treatment arm using past observations and current context. Our goal is to identify the best treatment arm, which is a treatment arm with the maximal expected reward marginalized over the contextual distribution, with a minimal probability of misidentification. In this study, we consider a class of nonparametric bandit models that converge to location-shift models when the gaps go to zero. First, we derive lower bounds of the misidentification probability for a certain class of strategies and bandit models (probabilistic models of potential outcomes) under a small-gap regime. A small-gap regime is a situation where gaps of the expected rewards between the best and suboptimal treatment arms go to zero, which corresponds to one of the worst cases in identifying the best treatment arm. We then develop the ``Random Sampling (RS)-Augmented Inverse Probability weighting (AIPW) strategy,'' which is asymptotically optimal in the sense that the probability of misidentification under the strategy matches the lower bound when the budget goes to infinity in the small-gap regime. The RS-AIPW strategy consists of the RS rule tracking a target sample allocation ratio and the recommendation rule using the AIPW estimator.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Fast Convergence on Perfect Classification for Functional Data

We investigate the availability of approaching perfect classification on functional data with finite samples. The seminal work (Delaigle and Hall (2012)) showed that perfect classification for functional data is easier to achieve than for finite-dimensional data. This result is based on their finding that a sufficient condition for the existence of a perfect classifier, named a Delaigle--Hall condition, is only available for functional data. However, there is a danger that a large sample size is required to achieve the perfect classification even though the Delaigle--Hall condition holds, because a minimax convergence rate of errors with functional data has a logarithm order in sample size. This study solves this complication by proving that the Delaigle--Hall condition also achieves fast convergence of the misclassification error in sample size, under the bounded entropy condition on functional data. We study a reproducing kernel Hilbert space-based classifier under the Delaigle--Hall condition, and show that a convergence rate of its misclassification error has an exponential order in sample size. Technically, our proof is based on (i) connecting the Delaigle--Hall condition and a margin of classifiers, and (ii) handling metric entropy of functional data. Our experiments support our result, and also illustrate that some other classifiers for functional data have a similar property.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Advantage of Deep Neural Networks for Estimating Functions with Singularity on Hypersurfaces

We develop a minimax rate analysis to describe the reason that deep neural networks (DNNs) perform better than other standard methods. For nonparametric regression problems, it is well known that many standard methods attain the minimax optimal rate of estimation errors for smooth functions, and thus, it is not straightforward to identify the theoretical advantages of DNNs. This study tries to fill this gap by considering the estimation for a class of non-smooth functions that have singularities on hypersurfaces. Our findings are as follows: (i) We derive the generalization error of a DNN estimator and prove that its convergence rate is almost optimal. (ii) We elucidate a phase diagram of estimation problems, which describes the situations where the DNNs outperform a general class of estimators, including kernel methods, Gaussian process methods, and others. We additionally show that DNNs outperform harmonic analysis based estimators. This advantage of DNNs comes from the fact that a shape of singularity can be successfully handled by their multi-layered structure.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Benign-Overfitting in Conditional Average Treatment Effect Prediction with Linear Regression

We study the benign overfitting theory in the prediction of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE), with linear regression models. As the development of machine learning for causal inference, a wide range of large-scale models for causality are gaining attention. One problem is that suspicions have been raised that the large-scale models are prone to overfitting to observations with sample selection, hence the large models may not be suitable for causal prediction. In this study, to resolve the suspicious, we investigate on the validity of causal inference methods for overparameterized models, by applying the recent theory of benign overfitting (Bartlett et al., 2020). Specifically, we consider samples whose distribution switches depending on an assignment rule, and study the prediction of CATE with linear models whose dimension diverges to infinity. We focus on two methods: the T-learner, which based on a difference between separately constructed estimators with each treatment group, and the inverse probability weight (IPW)-learner, which solves another regression problem approximated by a propensity score. In both methods, the estimator consists of interpolators that fit the samples perfectly. As a result, we show that the T-learner fails to achieve the consistency except the random assignment, while the IPW-learner converges the risk to zero if the propensity score is known. This difference stems from that the T-learner is unable to preserve eigenspaces of the covariances, which is necessary for benign overfitting in the overparameterized setting. Our result provides new insights into the usage of causal inference methods in the overparameterizated setting, in particular, doubly robust estimators.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Exponential escape efficiency of SGD from sharp minima in non-stationary regime

We show that stochastic gradient descent (SGD) escapes from sharp minima exponentially fast even before SGD reaches stationary distribution. SGD has been a de-facto standard training algorithm for various machine learning tasks. However, there still exists an open question as to why SGDs find highly generalizable parameters from non-convex target functions, such as the loss function of neural networks. An "escape efficiency" has been an attractive notion to tackle this question, which measures how SGD efficiently escapes from sharp minima with potentially low generalization performance. Despite its importance, the notion has the limitation that it works only when SGD reaches a stationary distribution after sufficient updates. In this paper, we develop a new theory to investigate escape efficiency of SGD with Gaussian noise, by introducing the Large Deviation Theory for dynamical systems. Based on the theory, we prove that the fast escape form sharp minima, named exponential escape, occurs in a non-stationary setting, and that it holds not only for continuous SGD but also for discrete SGD. A key notion for the result is a quantity called "steepness," which describes the SGD's stochastic behavior throughout its training process. Our experiments are consistent with our theory.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Hypothesis Test and Confidence Analysis with Wasserstein Distance on General Dimension

We develop a general framework for statistical inference with the 1-Wasserstein distance. Recently, the Wasserstein distance has attracted considerable attention and has been widely applied to various machine learning tasks because of its excellent properties. However, hypothesis tests and a confidence analysis for the Wasserstein distance have not been established in a general multivariate setting. This is because the limit distribution of the empirical distribution with the Wasserstein distance is unavailable without strong restriction. To address this problem, in this study, we develop a novel non-asymptotic Gaussian approximation for the empirical 1-Wasserstein distance. Using the approximation method, we develop a hypothesis test and confidence analysis for the empirical 1-Wasserstein distance. Additionally, we provide a theoretical guarantee and an efficient algorithm for the proposed approximation. Our experiments validate its performance numerically.

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preprint2022arXiv

Inference for Projection-Based Wasserstein Distances on Finite Spaces

The Wasserstein distance is a distance between two probability distributions and has recently gained increasing popularity in statistics and machine learning, owing to its attractive properties. One important approach to extending this distance is using low-dimensional projections of distributions to avoid a high computational cost and the curse of dimensionality in empirical estimation, such as the sliced Wasserstein or max-sliced Wasserstein distances. Despite their practical success in machine learning tasks, the availability of statistical inferences for projection-based Wasserstein distances is limited owing to the lack of distributional limit results. In this paper, we consider distances defined by integrating or maximizing Wasserstein distances between low-dimensional projections of two probability distributions. Then we derive limit distributions regarding these distances when the two distributions are supported on finite points. We also propose a bootstrap procedure to estimate quantiles of limit distributions from data. This facilitates asymptotically exact interval estimation and hypothesis testing for these distances. Our theoretical results are based on the arguments of Sommerfeld and Munk (2018) for deriving distributional limits regarding the original Wasserstein distance on finite spaces and the theory of sensitivity analysis in nonlinear programming. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to illustrate the theoretical results and demonstrate the applicability of our inferential methods to real data analysis.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Optimal Best Arm Identification in Two-Armed Bandits with a Fixed Budget under a Small Gap

We consider fixed-budget best-arm identification in two-armed Gaussian bandit problems. One of the longstanding open questions is the existence of an optimal strategy under which the probability of misidentification matches a lower bound. We show that a strategy following the Neyman allocation rule (Neyman, 1934) is asymptotically optimal when the gap between the expected rewards is small. First, we review a lower bound derived by Kaufmann et al. (2016). Then, we propose the "Neyman Allocation (NA)-Augmented Inverse Probability weighting (AIPW)" strategy, which consists of the sampling rule using the Neyman allocation with an estimated standard deviation and the recommendation rule using an AIPW estimator. Our proposed strategy is optimal because the upper bound matches the lower bound when the budget goes to infinity and the gap goes to zero.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Unified Perspective on Probability Divergence via Maximum Likelihood Density Ratio Estimation: Bridging KL-Divergence and Integral Probability Metrics

This paper provides a unified perspective for the Kullback-Leibler (KL)-divergence and the integral probability metrics (IPMs) from the perspective of maximum likelihood density-ratio estimation (DRE). Both the KL-divergence and the IPMs are widely used in various fields in applications such as generative modeling. However, a unified understanding of these concepts has still been unexplored. In this paper, we show that the KL-divergence and the IPMs can be represented as maximal likelihoods differing only by sampling schemes, and use this result to derive a unified form of the IPMs and a relaxed estimation method. To develop the estimation problem, we construct an unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator to perform DRE with a stratified sampling scheme. We further propose a novel class of probability divergences, called the Density Ratio Metrics (DRMs), that interpolates the KL-divergence and the IPMs. In addition to these findings, we also introduce some applications of the DRMs, such as DRE and generative adversarial networks. In experiments, we validate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

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preprint2021arXiv

Understanding Higher-order Structures in Evolving Graphs: A Simplicial Complex based Kernel Estimation Approach

Dynamic graphs are rife with higher-order interactions, such as co-authorship relationships and protein-protein interactions in biological networks, that naturally arise between more than two nodes at once. In spite of the ubiquitous presence of such higher-order interactions, limited attention has been paid to the higher-order counterpart of the popular pairwise link prediction problem. Existing higher-order structure prediction methods are mostly based on heuristic feature extraction procedures, which work well in practice but lack theoretical guarantees. Such heuristics are primarily focused on predicting links in a static snapshot of the graph. Moreover, these heuristic-based methods fail to effectively utilize and benefit from the knowledge of latent substructures already present within the higher-order structures. In this paper, we overcome these obstacles by capturing higher-order interactions succinctly as \textit{simplices}, model their neighborhood by face-vectors, and develop a nonparametric kernel estimator for simplices that views the evolving graph from the perspective of a time process (i.e., a sequence of graph snapshots). Our method substantially outperforms several baseline higher-order prediction methods. As a theoretical achievement, we prove the consistency and asymptotic normality in terms of the Wasserstein distance of our estimator using Stein's method.

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preprint2020arXiv

Adaptive Approximation and Generalization of Deep Neural Network with Intrinsic Dimensionality

In this study, we prove that an intrinsic low dimensionality of covariates is the main factor that determines the performance of deep neural networks (DNNs). DNNs generally provide outstanding empirical performance. Hence, numerous studies have actively investigated the theoretical properties of DNNs to understand their underlying mechanisms. In particular, the behavior of DNNs in terms of high-dimensional data is one of the most critical questions. However, this issue has not been sufficiently investigated from the aspect of covariates, although high-dimensional data have practically low intrinsic dimensionality. In this study, we derive bounds for an approximation error and a generalization error regarding DNNs with intrinsically low dimensional covariates. We apply the notion of the Minkowski dimension and develop a novel proof technique. Consequently, we show that convergence rates of the errors by DNNs do not depend on the nominal high dimensionality of data, but on its lower intrinsic dimension. We further prove that the rate is optimal in the minimax sense. We identify an advantage of DNNs by showing that DNNs can handle a broader class of intrinsic low dimensional data than other adaptive estimators. Finally, we conduct a numerical simulation to validate the theoretical results.

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