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Researcher profile

Martin T. Wells

Martin T. Wells contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningMethodologyApplicationsComputationComputer Visionmath.STStatistics Theory

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Adapt or Forget: Provable Tradeoffs Between Adam and SGD in Nonstationary Optimization

We provide a theoretical analysis of Adam under non-stationary stochastic objectives, separating two regimes: Euclidean tracking under adaptive strong monotonicity of the Adam-preconditioned mean-gradient operator, and high-probability projected stationarity guarantees under general $L$-smooth objectives. In the tracking regime, we derive finite-time expected and high-probability bounds that decompose sharply into four components: initialization, objective drift, a first-moment tracking error governed by $β_1$, and a preconditioner perturbation governed by $β_2$. We characterize the burn-in time to reach Adam's irreducible tracking floor under constant and step-decay schedules. We also prove a high-probability bound on the average projected stationarity gap for Adam under distribution shift. Across both analyses, our bounds reveal a noise--drift tradeoff: in noise-dominated regimes, first-moment averaging and adaptive preconditioning can improve the high-probability error, whereas in drift-dominated regimes, stale first-moment information and preconditioner perturbations can compound the cost of nonstationarity, allowing vanilla SGD to achieve a smaller tracking floor. Our explicit $(β_1,β_2,ε)$-dependent bounds delineate when adaptive step-sizing is beneficial versus harmful, and provide a theoretical mechanism for Adam's empirical instability and stabilization under distribution shift.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Interpretable Latent Variables in Deep State Space Models

We introduce a new version of deep state-space models (DSSMs) that combines a recurrent neural network with a state-space framework to forecast time series data. The model estimates the observed series as functions of latent variables that evolve non-linearly through time. Due to the complexity and non-linearity inherent in DSSMs, previous works on DSSMs typically produced latent variables that are very difficult to interpret. Our paper focus on producing interpretable latent parameters with two key modifications. First, we simplify the predictive decoder by restricting the response variables to be a linear transformation of the latent variables plus some noise. Second, we utilize shrinkage priors on the latent variables to reduce redundancy and improve robustness. These changes make the latent variables much easier to understand and allow us to interpret the resulting latent variables as random effects in a linear mixed model. We show through two public benchmark datasets the resulting model improves forecasting performances.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

K-ARMA Models for Clustering Time Series Data

We present an approach to clustering time series data using a model-based generalization of the K-Means algorithm which we call K-Models. We prove the convergence of this general algorithm and relate it to the hard-EM algorithm for mixture modeling. We then apply our method first with an AR($p$) clustering example and show how the clustering algorithm can be made robust to outliers using a least-absolute deviations criteria. We then build our clustering algorithm up for ARMA($p,q$) models and extend this to ARIMA($p,d,q$) models. We develop a goodness of fit statistic for the models fitted to clusters based on the Ljung-Box statistic. We perform experiments with simulated data to show how the algorithm can be used for outlier detection, detecting distributional drift, and discuss the impact of initialization method on empty clusters. We also perform experiments on real data which show that our method is competitive with other existing methods for similar time series clustering tasks.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Kendall's Tau for Two-Sample Inference Problems

We consider a Kendall's tau measure between a binary group indicator and the continuous variable under investigation to develop a thorough two-sample comparison procedure. The measure serves as a useful alternative to the hazard ratio whose applicability depends on the proportional hazards assumption. For right censored data, we propose a weighted log-rank statistic with weights adapted to the censoring distributions and develop theoretical properties of the derived estimators. In absence of censoring, the proposed estimator reduces to the WMW statistic. The proposed methodology is applied to analyze several data examples.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

An empirical Bayes approach to estimating dynamic models of co-regulated gene expression

Time-course gene expression datasets provide insight into the dynamics of complex biological processes, such as immune response and organ development. It is of interest to identify genes with similar temporal expression patterns because such genes are often biologically related. However, this task is challenging due to the high dimensionality of these datasets and the nonlinearity of gene expression time dynamics. We propose an empirical Bayes approach to estimating ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of gene expression, from which we derive a similarity metric between genes called the Bayesian lead-lag $R^2$ (LLR2). Importantly, the calculation of the LLR2 leverages biological databases that document known interactions amongst genes; this information is automatically used to define informative prior distributions on the ODE model's parameters. As a result, the LLR2 is a biologically-informed metric that can be used to identify clusters or networks of functionally-related genes with co-moving or time-delayed expression patterns. We then derive data-driven shrinkage parameters from Stein's unbiased risk estimate that optimally balance the ODE model's fit to both data and external biological information. Using real gene expression data, we demonstrate that our methodology allows us to recover interpretable gene clusters and sparse networks. These results reveal new insights about the dynamics of biological systems.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

HALO: Learning to Prune Neural Networks with Shrinkage

Deep neural networks achieve state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks by extracting a rich set of features from unstructured data, however this performance is closely tied to model size. Modern techniques for inducing sparsity and reducing model size are (1) network pruning, (2) training with a sparsity inducing penalty, and (3) training a binary mask jointly with the weights of the network. We study different sparsity inducing penalties from the perspective of Bayesian hierarchical models and present a novel penalty called Hierarchical Adaptive Lasso (HALO) which learns to adaptively sparsify weights of a given network via trainable parameters. When used to train over-parametrized networks, our penalty yields small subnetworks with high accuracy without fine-tuning. Empirically, on image recognition tasks, we find that HALO is able to learn highly sparse network (only 5% of the parameters) with significant gains in performance over state-of-the-art magnitude pruning methods at the same level of sparsity. Code is available at https://github.com/skyler120/sparsity-halo.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Robust Matrix Completion with Mixed Data Types

We consider the matrix completion problem of recovering a structured low rank matrix with partially observed entries with mixed data types. Vast majority of the solutions have proposed computationally feasible estimators with strong statistical guarantees for the case where the underlying distribution of data in the matrix is continuous. A few recent approaches have extended using similar ideas these estimators to the case where the underlying distributions belongs to the exponential family. Most of these approaches assume that there is only one underlying distribution and the low rank constraint is regularized by the matrix Schatten Norm. We propose a computationally feasible statistical approach with strong recovery guarantees along with an algorithmic framework suited for parallelization to recover a low rank matrix with partially observed entries for mixed data types in one step. We also provide extensive simulation evidence that corroborate our theoretical results.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Tree Space Prototypes: Another Look at Making Tree Ensembles Interpretable

Ensembles of decision trees perform well on many problems, but are not interpretable. In contrast to existing approaches in interpretability that focus on explaining relationships between features and predictions, we propose an alternative approach to interpret tree ensemble classifiers by surfacing representative points for each class -- prototypes. We introduce a new distance for Gradient Boosted Tree models, and propose new, adaptive prototype selection methods with theoretical guarantees, with the flexibility to choose a different number of prototypes in each class. We demonstrate our methods on random forests and gradient boosted trees, showing that the prototypes can perform as well as or even better than the original tree ensemble when used as a nearest-prototype classifier. In a user study, humans were better at predicting the output of a tree ensemble classifier when using prototypes than when using Shapley values, a popular feature attribution method. Hence, prototypes present a viable alternative to feature-based explanations for tree ensembles.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access