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Researcher profile

Marios Papamichalis

Marios Papamichalis contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
math.STMethodologyStatistics TheoryArtificial IntelligenceApplicationsComputationMachine LearningRoboticsstat.OT

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Published work

6 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Collapsed Structured Block Models for Community Detection in Complex Networks

Community detection seeks to recover mesoscopic structure from network data that may be binary, count-valued, signed, directed, weighted, or multilayer. The stochastic block model (SBM) explains such structure by positing a latent partition of nodes and block-specific edge distributions. In Bayesian SBMs, standard MCMC alternates between updating the partition and sampling block parameters, which can hinder mixing and complicate principled comparison across different partitions and numbers of communities. We develop a collapsed Bayesian SBM framework in which block-specific nuisance parameters are analytically integrated out under conjugate priors, so the marginal likelihood p(Y|z) depends only on the partition z and blockwise sufficient statistics. This yields fast local Gibbs/Metropolis updates based on ratios of closed-form integrated likelihoods and provides evidence-based complexity control that discourages gratuitous over-partitioning. We derive exact collapsed marginals for the most common SBM edge types-Beta-Bernoulli (binary), Gamma-Poisson (counts), and Normal-Inverse-Gamma (Gaussian weights)-and we extend collapsing to gap-constrained SBMs via truncated conjugate priors that enforce explicit upper bounds on between-community connectivity. We further show that the same collapsed strategy supports directed SBMs that model reciprocity through dyad states, signed SBMs via categorical block models, and multiplex SBMs where multiple layers contribute additive evidence for a shared partition. Across synthetic benchmarks and real networks (including email communication, hospital contact counts, and citation graphs), collapsed inference produces accurate partitions and interpretable posterior block summaries of within- and between-community interaction strengths while remaining computationally simple and modular.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Decision-Theoretic Robustness for Network Models

Bayesian network models (Erdos Renyi, stochastic block models, random dot product graphs, graphons) are widely used in neuroscience, epidemiology, and the social sciences, yet real networks are sparse, heterogeneous, and exhibit higher-order dependence. How stable are network-based decisions, model selection, and policy recommendations to small model misspecification? We study local decision-theoretic robustness by allowing the posterior to vary within a small Kullback-Leibler neighborhood and choosing actions that minimize worst-case posterior expected loss. Exploiting low-dimensional functionals available under exchangeability, we (i) adapt decision-theoretic robustness to exchangeable graphs via graphon limits and derive sharp small-radius expansions of robust posterior risk; under squared loss the leading inflation is controlled by the posterior variance of the loss, and for robustness indices that diverge at percolation/fragmentation thresholds we obtain a universal critical exponent describing the explosion of decision uncertainty near criticality. (ii) Develop a nonparametric minimax theory for robust model selection between sparse Erdos-Renyi and block models, showing-via robustness error exponents-that no Bayesian or frequentist method can uniformly improve upon the decision-theoretic limits over configuration models and sparse graphon classes for percolation-type functionals. (iii) Propose a practical algorithm based on entropic tilting of posterior or variational samples, and demonstrate it on functional brain connectivity and Karnataka village social networks.

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preprint2026arXiv

Support-Safe Variational Hybrid Filtering for Contact-Mode and Sparse-Law Recovery

Contact-rich robot dynamics are hybrid: a single observation can match several latent states and contact regimes (free, impact, stick--slip). A standard amortized filter that places no probability on a feasible contact transition will permanently lose the branch the robot actually follows. We introduce VHYDRO, a variational hybrid dynamics learner that prevents this branch loss. At each step, VHYDRO mixes the learned proposal with a feasible transition law before sampling and importance weighting, ensuring that every transition retained by the model-feasible carrier remains covered. VHYDRO jointly infers a continuous latent state and a discrete contact mode, and fits a sparse port-Hamiltonian law to each recovered regime. On top of this, three guarantees connect: support coverage stabilizes filtering, the stabilized filter concentrates the discrete contact posterior on coherent regimes, and mode-pure segments admit sparse port-Hamiltonian recovery. The recovery error separates cleanly into filtering, derivative, mode-impurity, and physics-residual parts. Three empirical findings track the same mechanism. Under heavy occlusion the support-safe filter stays usable while a non-defensive proposal collapses. On ManiSkill demonstrations and on four Sawyer/BridgeData task families the discrete state forms temporally coherent contact-regime segments that the discrete state yields a stronger joint profile across ARI, change-point F1, and segment purity than post-hoc and mode-free baselines. On hybrid systems with known equations the mode-conditioned sparse fit recovers the active physical terms; purely predictive baselines do not.

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preprint2022arXiv

Latent Space Network Modelling with Hyperbolic and Spherical Geometries

A rich class of network models associate each node with a low-dimensional latent coordinate that controls the propensity for connections to form. Models of this type are well established in the network analysis literature, where it is typical to assume that the underlying geometry is Euclidean. Recent work has explored the consequences of this choice and has motivated the study of models which rely on non-Euclidean latent geometries, with a primary focus on spherical and hyperbolic geometry. In this paper, we examine to what extent latent features can be inferred from the observable links in the network, considering network models which rely on spherical and hyperbolic geometries. For each geometry, we describe a latent space network model, detail constraints on the latent coordinates which remove the well-known identifiability issues, and present Bayesian estimation schemes. Thus, we develop computational procedures to perform inference for network models in which the properties of the underlying geometry play a vital role. Finally, we assess the validity of these models on real data.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Relational Dynamic Bayesian Network Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Airline Disruption Management

Disruption management during the airline scheduling process can be compartmentalized into proactive and reactive processes depending upon the time of schedule execution. The state of the art for decision-making in airline disruption management involves a heuristic human-centric approach that does not categorically study uncertainty in proactive and reactive processes for managing airline schedule disruptions. Hence, this paper introduces an uncertainty transfer function model (UTFM) framework that characterizes uncertainty for proactive airline disruption management before schedule execution, reactive airline disruption management during schedule execution, and proactive airline disruption management after schedule execution to enable the construction of quantitative tools that can allow an intelligent agent to rationalize complex interactions and procedures for robust airline disruption management. Specifically, we use historical scheduling and operations data from a major U.S. airline to facilitate the development and assessment of the UTFM, defined by hidden Markov models (a special class of probabilistic graphical models) that can efficiently perform pattern learning and inference on portions of large data sets. We employ the UTFM to assess two independent and separately disrupted flight legs from the airline route network. Assessment of a flight leg from Dallas to Houston, disrupted by air traffic control hold for bad weather at Dallas, revealed that proactive disruption management for turnaround in Dallas before schedule execution is impractical because of zero transition probability between turnaround and taxi-out.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Wrapped Distributions on homogeneous Riemannian manifolds

We provide a general framework for constructing probability distributions on Riemannian manifolds, taking advantage of area-preserving maps and isometries. Control over distributions' properties, such as parameters, symmetry and modality yield a family of flexible distributions that are straightforward to sample from, suitable for use within Monte Carlo algorithms and latent variable models, such as autoencoders. As an illustration, we empirically validate our approach by utilizing our proposed distributions within a variational autoencoder and a latent space network model. Finally, we take advantage of the generalized description of this framework to posit questions for future work.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access