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Krikamol Muandet

Krikamol Muandet appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

ResearcherUnclaimed source record
Machine Learningmath.STStatistics TheoryComputer VisionData Structures and Algorithmsecon.EMeess.SYmath.OCmath.PRMethodologySystems and Control

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Published work

21 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Lost in Aggregation: The Causal Interpretation of the IV Estimand

Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible. However, justifying the validity of the instrument often poses a significant challenge. In this work, we highlight a problem generally neglected in arguments for instrumental variable validity: the presence of an ''aggregate treatment variable'', where the treatment (e.g., education, GDP, caloric intake) is composed of finer-grained components that each may have a different effect on the outcome. We show that the causal effect of an aggregate treatment is generally ambiguous, as it depends on how interventions on the aggregate are instantiated at the component level, formalized through the aggregate-constrained component intervention distribution. We then characterize conditions on the interventional distribution and the aggregate setting under which standard instrumental variable estimators identify the aggregate effect. The contrived nature of these conditions implies major limitations on the interpretation of instrumental variable estimates based on aggregate treatments and highlights the need for a broader justificatory base for the exclusion restriction in such settings.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

QuadraSHAP: Stable and Scalable Shapley Values for Product Games via Gauss-Legendre Quadrature

We study the efficient computation of Shapley values for \emph{product games} -- cooperative games in which the coalition value factorizes as a product of per-player terms. Such games arise in machine learning explainability whenever the value function inherits a multiplicative structure from the underlying model, as in kernel methods with product kernels and tree-based models. Our key result is that the Shapley value of each player in a product game admits an exact one-dimensional integral representation: the weighted sum over exponentially many feature coalitions collapses to the integral of a degree-$(d-1)$ polynomial over $[0,1]$, where $d$ is the total number of features. This yields a Gauss--Legendre quadrature scheme that is \emph{provably exact} whenever the number of nodes satisfies $m_q \geq \lceil d/2 \rceil$, and otherwise provides a \emph{near-exact} approximation with error provably decaying geometrically in $m_q$. In practice, a few hundred nodes can achieve highly precise estimates even with thousands of features. Building on this formulation, we derive a numerically stable implementation via log-space evaluation, together with an efficient parallel implementation based on associative scan primitives that achieves $O(d\,m_q)$ total work and $O(\log d)$ parallel time. Experiments show that \textsc{QuadraSHAP} is the fastest numerically stable method across all tested configurations.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

AutoML Two-Sample Test

Two-sample tests are important in statistics and machine learning, both as tools for scientific discovery as well as to detect distribution shifts. This led to the development of many sophisticated test procedures going beyond the standard supervised learning frameworks, whose usage can require specialized knowledge about two-sample testing. We use a simple test that takes the mean discrepancy of a witness function as the test statistic and prove that minimizing a squared loss leads to a witness with optimal testing power. This allows us to leverage recent advancements in AutoML. Without any user input about the problems at hand, and using the same method for all our experiments, our AutoML two-sample test achieves competitive performance on a diverse distribution shift benchmark as well as on challenging two-sample testing problems. We provide an implementation of the AutoML two-sample test in the Python package autotst.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

A Witness Two-Sample Test

The Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) has been the state-of-the-art nonparametric test for tackling the two-sample problem. Its statistic is given by the difference in expectations of the witness function, a real-valued function defined as a weighted sum of kernel evaluations on a set of basis points. Typically the kernel is optimized on a training set, and hypothesis testing is performed on a separate test set to avoid overfitting (i.e., control type-I error). That is, the test set is used to simultaneously estimate the expectations and define the basis points, while the training set only serves to select the kernel and is discarded. In this work, we propose to use the training data to also define the weights and the basis points for better data efficiency. We show that 1) the new test is consistent and has a well-controlled type-I error; 2) the optimal witness function is given by a precision-weighted mean in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated with the kernel; and 3) the test power of the proposed test is comparable or exceeds that of the MMD and other modern tests, as verified empirically on challenging synthetic and real problems (e.g., Higgs data).

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Regularised Least-Squares Regression with Infinite-Dimensional Output Space

This short technical report presents some learning theory results on vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) regression, where the input space is allowed to be non-compact and the output space is a (possibly infinite-dimensional) Hilbert space. Our approach is based on the integral operator technique using spectral theory for non-compact operators. We place a particular emphasis on obtaining results with as few assumptions as possible; as such we only use Chebyshev's inequality, and no effort is made to obtain the best rates or constants.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Towards Empirical Process Theory for Vector-Valued Functions: Metric Entropy of Smooth Function Classes

This paper provides some first steps in developing empirical process theory for functions taking values in a vector space. Our main results provide bounds on the entropy of classes of smooth functions taking values in a Hilbert space, by leveraging theory from differential calculus of vector-valued functions and fractal dimension theory of metric spaces. We demonstrate how these entropy bounds can be used to show the uniform law of large numbers and asymptotic equicontinuity of the function classes, and also apply it to statistical learning theory in which the output space is a Hilbert space. We conclude with a discussion on the extension of Rademacher complexities to vector-valued function classes.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

A Measure-Theoretic Approach to Kernel Conditional Mean Embeddings

We present an operator-free, measure-theoretic approach to the conditional mean embedding (CME) as a random variable taking values in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. While the kernel mean embedding of unconditional distributions has been defined rigorously, the existing operator-based approach of the conditional version depends on stringent assumptions that hinder its analysis. We overcome this limitation via a measure-theoretic treatment of CMEs. We derive a natural regression interpretation to obtain empirical estimates, and provide a thorough theoretical analysis thereof, including universal consistency. As natural by-products, we obtain the conditional analogues of the maximum mean discrepancy and Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion, and demonstrate their behaviour via simulations.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

A New Distribution-Free Concept for Representing, Comparing, and Propagating Uncertainty in Dynamical Systems with Kernel Probabilistic Programming

This work presents the concept of kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming in the context of stochastic systems. We propose formulations to represent, compare, and propagate uncertainties for fairly general stochastic dynamics in a distribution-free manner. The new tools enjoy sound theory rooted in functional analysis and wide applicability as demonstrated in distinct numerical examples. The implication of this new concept is a new mode of thinking about the statistical nature of uncertainty in dynamical systems.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Frontal Low-rank Random Tensors for Fine-grained Action Segmentation

Fine-grained action segmentation in long untrimmed videos is an important task for many applications such as surveillance, robotics, and human-computer interaction. To understand subtle and precise actions within a long time period, second-order information (e.g. feature covariance) or higher is reported to be effective in the literature. However, extracting such high-order information is considerably non-trivial. In particular, the dimensionality increases exponentially with the information order, and hence gaining more representation power also increases the computational cost and the risk of overfitting. In this paper, we propose an approach to representing high-order information for temporal action segmentation via a simple yet effective bilinear form. Specifically, our contributions are: (1) From the multilinear perspective, we derive a bilinear form of low complexity, assuming that the three-way tensor has low-rank frontal slices. (2) Rather than learning the tensor entries from data, we sample the entries from different underlying distributions, and prove that the underlying distribution influences the information order. (3) We employed our bilinear form as an intermediate layer in state-of-the-art deep neural networks, enabling to represent high-order information in complex deep models effectively and efficiently. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed bilinear form outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods on the challenging temporal action segmentation task. One can see our project page for data, model and code: \url{https://vlg.inf.ethz.ch/projects/BilinearTCN/}.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Kernel Conditional Moment Test via Maximum Moment Restriction

We propose a new family of specification tests called kernel conditional moment (KCM) tests. Our tests are built on a novel representation of conditional moment restrictions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) called conditional moment embedding (CMME). After transforming the conditional moment restrictions into a continuum of unconditional counterparts, the test statistic is defined as the maximum moment restriction (MMR) within the unit ball of the RKHS. We show that the MMR not only fully characterizes the original conditional moment restrictions, leading to consistency in both hypothesis testing and parameter estimation, but also has an analytic expression that is easy to compute as well as closed-form asymptotic distributions. Our empirical studies show that the KCM test has a promising finite-sample performance compared to existing tests.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Kernel Mean Shrinkage Estimators

A mean function in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), or a kernel mean, is central to kernel methods in that it is used by many classical algorithms such as kernel principal component analysis, and it also forms the core inference step of modern kernel methods that rely on embedding probability distributions in RKHSs. Given a finite sample, an empirical average has been used commonly as a standard estimator of the true kernel mean. Despite a widespread use of this estimator, we show that it can be improved thanks to the well-known Stein phenomenon. We propose a new family of estimators called kernel mean shrinkage estimators (KMSEs), which benefit from both theoretical justifications and good empirical performance. The results demonstrate that the proposed estimators outperform the standard one, especially in a "large d, small n" paradigm.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Computing Functions of Random Variables via Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space Representations

We describe a method to perform functional operations on probability distributions of random variables. The method uses reproducing kernel Hilbert space representations of probability distributions, and it is applicable to all operations which can be applied to points drawn from the respective distributions. We refer to our approach as {\em kernel probabilistic programming}. We illustrate it on synthetic data, and show how it can be used for nonparametric structural equation models, with an application to causal inference.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Towards a Learning Theory of Cause-Effect Inference

We pose causal inference as the problem of learning to classify probability distributions. In particular, we assume access to a collection $\{(S_i,l_i)\}_{i=1}^n$, where each $S_i$ is a sample drawn from the probability distribution of $X_i \times Y_i$, and $l_i$ is a binary label indicating whether "$X_i \to Y_i$" or "$X_i \leftarrow Y_i$". Given these data, we build a causal inference rule in two steps. First, we featurize each $S_i$ using the kernel mean embedding associated with some characteristic kernel. Second, we train a binary classifier on such embeddings to distinguish between causal directions. We present generalization bounds showing the statistical consistency and learning rates of the proposed approach, and provide a simple implementation that achieves state-of-the-art cause-effect inference. Furthermore, we extend our ideas to infer causal relationships between more than two variables.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Kernel Mean Estimation via Spectral Filtering

The problem of estimating the kernel mean in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) is central to kernel methods in that it is used by classical approaches (e.g., when centering a kernel PCA matrix), and it also forms the core inference step of modern kernel methods (e.g., kernel-based non-parametric tests) that rely on embedding probability distributions in RKHSs. Muandet et al. (2014) has shown that shrinkage can help in constructing "better" estimators of the kernel mean than the empirical estimator. The present paper studies the consistency and admissibility of the estimators in Muandet et al. (2014), and proposes a wider class of shrinkage estimators that improve upon the empirical estimator by considering appropriate basis functions. Using the kernel PCA basis, we show that some of these estimators can be constructed using spectral filtering algorithms which are shown to be consistent under some technical assumptions. Our theoretical analysis also reveals a fundamental connection to the kernel-based supervised learning framework. The proposed estimators are simple to implement and perform well in practice.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

One-Class Support Measure Machines for Group Anomaly Detection

We propose one-class support measure machines (OCSMMs) for group anomaly detection which aims at recognizing anomalous aggregate behaviors of data points. The OCSMMs generalize well-known one-class support vector machines (OCSVMs) to a space of probability measures. By formulating the problem as quantile estimation on distributions, we can establish an interesting connection to the OCSVMs and variable kernel density estimators (VKDEs) over the input space on which the distributions are defined, bridging the gap between large-margin methods and kernel density estimators. In particular, we show that various types of VKDEs can be considered as solutions to a class of regularization problems studied in this paper. Experiments on Sloan Digital Sky Survey dataset and High Energy Particle Physics dataset demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework in real-world applications.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

The Randomized Causation Coefficient

We are interested in learning causal relationships between pairs of random variables, purely from observational data. To effectively address this task, the state-of-the-art relies on strong assumptions regarding the mechanisms mapping causes to effects, such as invertibility or the existence of additive noise, which only hold in limited situations. On the contrary, this short paper proposes to learn how to perform causal inference directly from data, and without the need of feature engineering. In particular, we pose causality as a kernel mean embedding classification problem, where inputs are samples from arbitrary probability distributions on pairs of random variables, and labels are types of causal relationships. We validate the performance of our method on synthetic and real-world data against the state-of-the-art. Moreover, we submitted our algorithm to the ChaLearn's "Fast Causation Coefficient Challenge" competition, with which we won the fastest code prize and ranked third in the overall leaderboard.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

Domain Generalization via Invariant Feature Representation

This paper investigates domain generalization: How to take knowledge acquired from an arbitrary number of related domains and apply it to previously unseen domains? We propose Domain-Invariant Component Analysis (DICA), a kernel-based optimization algorithm that learns an invariant transformation by minimizing the dissimilarity across domains, whilst preserving the functional relationship between input and output variables. A learning-theoretic analysis shows that reducing dissimilarity improves the expected generalization ability of classifiers on new domains, motivating the proposed algorithm. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that DICA successfully learns invariant features and improves classifier performance in practice.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

Kernel Mean Estimation and Stein's Effect

A mean function in reproducing kernel Hilbert space, or a kernel mean, is an important part of many applications ranging from kernel principal component analysis to Hilbert-space embedding of distributions. Given finite samples, an empirical average is the standard estimate for the true kernel mean. We show that this estimator can be improved via a well-known phenomenon in statistics called Stein's phenomenon. After consideration, our theoretical analysis reveals the existence of a wide class of estimators that are better than the standard. Focusing on a subset of this class, we propose efficient shrinkage estimators for the kernel mean. Empirical evaluations on several benchmark applications clearly demonstrate that the proposed estimators outperform the standard kernel mean estimator.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

Learning from Distributions via Support Measure Machines

This paper presents a kernel-based discriminative learning framework on probability measures. Rather than relying on large collections of vectorial training examples, our framework learns using a collection of probability distributions that have been constructed to meaningfully represent training data. By representing these probability distributions as mean embeddings in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), we are able to apply many standard kernel-based learning techniques in straightforward fashion. To accomplish this, we construct a generalization of the support vector machine (SVM) called a support measure machine (SMM). Our analyses of SMMs provides several insights into their relationship to traditional SVMs. Based on such insights, we propose a flexible SVM (Flex-SVM) that places different kernel functions on each training example. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

One-Class Support Measure Machines for Group Anomaly Detection

We propose one-class support measure machines (OCSMMs) for group anomaly detection which aims at recognizing anomalous aggregate behaviors of data points. The OCSMMs generalize well-known one-class support vector machines (OCSVMs) to a space of probability measures. By formulating the problem as quantile estimation on distributions, we can establish an interesting connection to the OCSVMs and variable kernel density estimators (VKDEs) over the input space on which the distributions are defined, bridging the gap between large-margin methods and kernel density estimators. In particular, we show that various types of VKDEs can be considered as solutions to a class of regularization problems studied in this paper. Experiments on Sloan Digital Sky Survey dataset and High Energy Particle Physics dataset demonstrate the benefits of the proposed framework in real-world applications.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2012arXiv

Hilbert Space Embedding for Dirichlet Process Mixtures

This paper proposes a Hilbert space embedding for Dirichlet Process mixture models via a stick-breaking construction of Sethuraman. Although Bayesian nonparametrics offers a powerful approach to construct a prior that avoids the need to specify the model size/complexity explicitly, an exact inference is often intractable. On the other hand, frequentist approaches such as kernel machines, which suffer from the model selection/comparison problems, often benefit from efficient learning algorithms. This paper discusses the possibility to combine the best of both worlds by using the Dirichlet Process mixture model as a case study.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access