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Arthur Gretton

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Published work

57 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Doubly Robust Proxy Causal Learning with Neural Mean Embeddings

Unobserved confounding prevents standard covariate adjustment from identifying causal response functions in observational studies. Proxy causal learning addresses this problem through bridge equations involving treatment- and outcome-inducing proxies, avoiding direct recovery of the latent confounder. Existing doubly robust proxy estimators combine outcome and treatment bridges, but typically rely on fixed kernels, sieves, or low-dimensional semiparametric models; existing neural proxy methods are more flexible, but are largely single-bridge estimators. We develop a neural doubly robust framework for proxy causal learning with continuous and structured treatments. Our method introduces a neural mean-embedding estimator for the treatment bridge, combines it with a neural outcome bridge, and estimates the doubly robust correction through a final regression stage. The framework covers population, heterogeneous, and conditional dose-response functions, yielding full response-curve estimators rather than binary-treatment effects. The algorithms use two stages for each bridge and history-aware updates of the final linear layers to stabilize stochastic multi-stage training. We prove consistency of the algorithms showing that the doubly robust error is controlled by the final averaging and regression errors together with the smaller of the outcome- and treatment-side weak-norm bridge errors. Across synthetic and image-valued benchmarks, the proposed estimators outperform existing baselines and single-bridge neural estimators, showing the benefit of combining learned outcome and treatment bridges in a doubly robust construction. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/BariscanBozkurt/DRPCL-Neural-Mean-Embedding.

preprint2026arXiv

On the Wasserstein Gradient Flow Interpretation of Drifting Models

Recently, Deng et al. (2026) proposed Generative Modeling via Drifting (GMD), a novel framework for generative tasks. This note presents an analysis of GMD through the lens of Wasserstein Gradient Flows (WGF), i.e., the path of steepest descent for a functional in the space of probability measures, equipped with the geometry of optimal transport. Unlike previous WGF-based contributions, GMD can be thought of as directly targeting a fixed point of a specific WGF flow. We demonstrate three main results: first, that one algorithm proposed by Deng et al. (2026) corresponds to finding the limiting point of a WGF on the KL divergence, with Parzen smoothing on the densities. Second, that the algorithm actually implemented by Deng et al. (2026) corresponds to a different procedure, which bears some resemblance to the fixed point of a WGF on the Sinkhorn divergence, but lacks certain desirable properties of the latter. Third, the same same idea can be extended to the limiting point of other WGFs, including the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), the sliced Wasserstein distance, and GAN critic functions.

preprint2026arXiv

Semiparametric Efficient Test for Interpretable Distributional Treatment Effects

Distributional treatment effects can be invisible to means: a treatment may preserve average outcomes while changing tails, modes, dispersion, or rare-event probabilities. Kernel tests can detect discrepancies between interventional outcome laws, but global tests do not reveal where the laws differ. We propose DR-ME, to our knowledge the first semiparametrically efficient finite-location test for interpretable distributional treatment effects. DR-ME evaluates an interventional kernel witness at learned outcome locations, returning causal-discrepancy coordinates rather than only a global rejection. From observational data, we derive orthogonal doubly robust kernel features whose centered oracle form is the canonical gradient of this finite witness. For fixed locations, we characterize the local testing limit: DR-ME is chi-square calibrated under the null, has noncentral chi-square local power, and uses the covariance whitening that optimizes local signal-to-noise for discrepancies visible through the selected coordinates. This efficient local-power geometry yields a principled location-learning criterion, with sample splitting preserving post-selection validity. Experiments show near-nominal type-I error, competitive power against global doubly robust kernel tests, and interpretable learned locations that localize distributional effects in a semi-synthetic medical-imaging study.

preprint2026arXiv

Sobolev Regularized MMD Gradient Flow

We propose Sobolev-regularized Maximum Mean Discrepancy (SrMMD) gradient flow, a regularized variant of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) gradient flow based on a gradient penalty on the witness function. The proposed regularization mitigates the non-convexity of the MMD objective and yields provable \emph{global} convergence guarantees in MMD in both continuous and discrete time. A more surprising appeal is that our convergence analysis does not rely on isoperimetric assumptions on the target distribution. Instead, it is based on a regularity condition on the difference between kernel mean embeddings. A key highlight of the proposed flow is that it is applicable in both sampling (from an unnormalized target distribution) -- using Stein kernels -- and generative modeling settings, unlike previous works, where a gradient flow is suitable for only generative modeling or sampling but not both. The effectiveness of the proposed flow is empirically verified on a broad range of tasks in both generative modelling and sampling.

preprint2022arXiv

Causal Inference with Treatment Measurement Error: A Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Approach

We propose a kernel-based nonparametric estimator for the causal effect when the cause is corrupted by error. We do so by generalizing estimation in the instrumental variable setting. Despite significant work on regression with measurement error, additionally handling unobserved confounding in the continuous setting is non-trivial: we have seen little prior work. As a by-product of our investigation, we clarify a connection between mean embeddings and characteristic functions, and how learning one simultaneously allows one to learn the other. This opens the way for kernel method research to leverage existing results in characteristic function estimation. Finally, we empirically show that our proposed method, MEKIV, improves over baselines and is robust under changes in the strength of measurement error and to the type of error distributions.

preprint2022arXiv

Deep Layer-wise Networks Have Closed-Form Weights

There is currently a debate within the neuroscience community over the likelihood of the brain performing backpropagation (BP). To better mimic the brain, training a network $\textit{one layer at a time}$ with only a "single forward pass" has been proposed as an alternative to bypass BP; we refer to these networks as "layer-wise" networks. We continue the work on layer-wise networks by answering two outstanding questions. First, $\textit{do they have a closed-form solution?}$ Second, $\textit{how do we know when to stop adding more layers?}$ This work proves that the kernel Mean Embedding is the closed-form weight that achieves the network global optimum while driving these networks to converge towards a highly desirable kernel for classification; we call it the $\textit{Neural Indicator Kernel}$.

preprint2022arXiv

Deep Layer-wise Networks Have Closed-Form Weights

There is currently a debate within the neuroscience community over the likelihood of the brain performing backpropagation (BP). To better mimic the brain, training a network \textit{one layer at a time} with only a "single forward pass" has been proposed as an alternative to bypass BP; we refer to these networks as "layer-wise" networks. We continue the work on layer-wise networks by answering two outstanding questions. First, $\textit{do they have a closed-form solution?}$ Second, $\textit{how do we know when to stop adding more layers?}$ This work proves that the Kernel Mean Embedding is the closed-form weight that achieves the network global optimum while driving these networks to converge towards a highly desirable kernel for classification; we call it the $\textit{Neural Indicator Kernel}$.

preprint2022arXiv

Discussion of `Multiscale Fisher's Independence Test for Multivariate Dependence'

We discuss how MultiFIT, the Multiscale Fisher's Independence Test for Multivariate Dependence proposed by Gorsky and Ma (2022), compares to existing linear-time kernel tests based on the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC). We highlight the fact that the levels of the kernel tests at any finite sample size can be controlled exactly, as it is the case with the level of MultiFIT. In our experiments, we observe some of the performance limitations of MultiFIT in terms of test power.

preprint2022arXiv

Importance Weighting Approach in Kernel Bayes' Rule

We study a nonparametric approach to Bayesian computation via feature means, where the expectation of prior features is updated to yield expected kernel posterior features, based on regression from learned neural net or kernel features of the observations. All quantities involved in the Bayesian update are learned from observed data, making the method entirely model-free. The resulting algorithm is a novel instance of a kernel Bayes' rule (KBR), based on importance weighting. This results in superior numerical stability to the original approach to KBR, which requires operator inversion. We show the convergence of the estimator using a novel consistency analysis on the importance weighting estimator in the infinity norm. We evaluate KBR on challenging synthetic benchmarks, including a filtering problem with a state-space model involving high dimensional image observations. Importance weighted KBR yields uniformly better empirical performance than the original KBR, and competitive performance with other competing methods.

preprint2022arXiv

Stein's Method Meets Computational Statistics: A Review of Some Recent Developments

Stein's method compares probability distributions through the study of a class of linear operators called Stein operators. While mainly studied in probability and used to underpin theoretical statistics, Stein's method has led to significant advances in computational statistics in recent years. The goal of this survey is to bring together some of these recent developments and, in doing so, to stimulate further research into the successful field of Stein's method and statistics. The topics we discuss include tools to benchmark and compare sampling methods such as approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo, deterministic alternatives to sampling methods, control variate techniques, parameter estimation and goodness-of-fit testing.

preprint2021arXiv

A Non-Asymptotic Analysis for Stein Variational Gradient Descent

We study the Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) algorithm, which optimises a set of particles to approximate a target probability distribution $π\propto e^{-V}$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$. In the population limit, SVGD performs gradient descent in the space of probability distributions on the KL divergence with respect to $π$, where the gradient is smoothed through a kernel integral operator. In this paper, we provide a novel finite time analysis for the SVGD algorithm. We provide a descent lemma establishing that the algorithm decreases the objective at each iteration, and rates of convergence for the average Stein Fisher divergence (also referred to as Kernel Stein Discrepancy). We also provide a convergence result of the finite particle system corresponding to the practical implementation of SVGD to its population version.

preprint2021arXiv

A Weaker Faithfulness Assumption based on Triple Interactions

One of the core assumptions in causal discovery is the faithfulness assumption, i.e., assuming that independencies found in the data are due to separations in the true causal graph. This assumption can, however, be violated in many ways, including xor connections, deterministic functions or cancelling paths. In this work, we propose a weaker assumption that we call $2$-adjacency faithfulness. In contrast to adjacency faithfulness, which assumes that there is no conditional independence between each pair of variables that are connected in the causal graph, we only require no conditional independence between a node and a subset of its Markov blanket that can contain up to two nodes. Equivalently, we adapt orientation faithfulness to this setting. We further propose a sound orientation rule for causal discovery that applies under weaker assumptions. As a proof of concept, we derive a modified Grow and Shrink algorithm that recovers the Markov blanket of a target node and prove its correctness under strictly weaker assumptions than the standard faithfulness assumption.

preprint2021arXiv

Demystifying MMD GANs

We investigate the training and performance of generative adversarial networks using the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) as critic, termed MMD GANs. As our main theoretical contribution, we clarify the situation with bias in GAN loss functions raised by recent work: we show that gradient estimators used in the optimization process for both MMD GANs and Wasserstein GANs are unbiased, but learning a discriminator based on samples leads to biased gradients for the generator parameters. We also discuss the issue of kernel choice for the MMD critic, and characterize the kernel corresponding to the energy distance used for the Cramer GAN critic. Being an integral probability metric, the MMD benefits from training strategies recently developed for Wasserstein GANs. In experiments, the MMD GAN is able to employ a smaller critic network than the Wasserstein GAN, resulting in a simpler and faster-training algorithm with matching performance. We also propose an improved measure of GAN convergence, the Kernel Inception Distance, and show how to use it to dynamically adapt learning rates during GAN training.

preprint2021arXiv

Efficient and principled score estimation with Nyström kernel exponential families

We propose a fast method with statistical guarantees for learning an exponential family density model where the natural parameter is in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and may be infinite-dimensional. The model is learned by fitting the derivative of the log density, the score, thus avoiding the need to compute a normalization constant. Our approach improves the computational efficiency of an earlier solution by using a low-rank, Nyström-like solution. The new solution retains the consistency and convergence rates of the full-rank solution (exactly in Fisher distance, and nearly in other distances), with guarantees on the degree of cost and storage reduction. We evaluate the method in experiments on density estimation and in the construction of an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler. Compared to an existing score learning approach using a denoising autoencoder, our estimator is empirically more data-efficient when estimating the score, runs faster, and has fewer parameters (which can be tuned in a principled and interpretable way), in addition to providing statistical guarantees.

preprint2021arXiv

Generative Models and Model Criticism via Optimized Maximum Mean Discrepancy

We propose a method to optimize the representation and distinguishability of samples from two probability distributions, by maximizing the estimated power of a statistical test based on the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). This optimized MMD is applied to the setting of unsupervised learning by generative adversarial networks (GAN), in which a model attempts to generate realistic samples, and a discriminator attempts to tell these apart from data samples. In this context, the MMD may be used in two roles: first, as a discriminator, either directly on the samples, or on features of the samples. Second, the MMD can be used to evaluate the performance of a generative model, by testing the model's samples against a reference data set. In the latter role, the optimized MMD is particularly helpful, as it gives an interpretable indication of how the model and data distributions differ, even in cases where individual model samples are not easily distinguished either by eye or by classifier.

preprint2021arXiv

Learning deep kernels for exponential family densities

The kernel exponential family is a rich class of distributions, which can be fit efficiently and with statistical guarantees by score matching. Being required to choose a priori a simple kernel such as the Gaussian, however, limits its practical applicability. We provide a scheme for learning a kernel parameterized by a deep network, which can find complex location-dependent local features of the data geometry. This gives a very rich class of density models, capable of fitting complex structures on moderate-dimensional problems. Compared to deep density models fit via maximum likelihood, our approach provides a complementary set of strengths and tradeoffs: in empirical studies, the former can yield higher likelihoods, whereas the latter gives better estimates of the gradient of the log density, the score, which describes the distribution's shape.

preprint2021arXiv

Learning Deep Kernels for Non-Parametric Two-Sample Tests

We propose a class of kernel-based two-sample tests, which aim to determine whether two sets of samples are drawn from the same distribution. Our tests are constructed from kernels parameterized by deep neural nets, trained to maximize test power. These tests adapt to variations in distribution smoothness and shape over space, and are especially suited to high dimensions and complex data. By contrast, the simpler kernels used in prior kernel testing work are spatially homogeneous, and adaptive only in lengthscale. We explain how this scheme includes popular classifier-based two-sample tests as a special case, but improves on them in general. We provide the first proof of consistency for the proposed adaptation method, which applies both to kernels on deep features and to simpler radial basis kernels or multiple kernel learning. In experiments, we establish the superior performance of our deep kernels in hypothesis testing on benchmark and real-world data. The code of our deep-kernel-based two sample tests is available at https://github.com/fengliu90/DK-for-TST.

preprint2021arXiv

On gradient regularizers for MMD GANs

We propose a principled method for gradient-based regularization of the critic of GAN-like models trained by adversarially optimizing the kernel of a Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We show that controlling the gradient of the critic is vital to having a sensible loss function, and devise a method to enforce exact, analytical gradient constraints at no additional cost compared to existing approximate techniques based on additive regularizers. The new loss function is provably continuous, and experiments show that it stabilizes and accelerates training, giving image generation models that outperform state-of-the art methods on $160 \times 160$ CelebA and $64 \times 64$ unconditional ImageNet.

preprint2020arXiv

Exponential Family Estimation via Adversarial Dynamics Embedding

We present an efficient algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of exponential family models, with a general parametrization of the energy function that includes neural networks. We exploit the primal-dual view of the MLE with a kinetics augmented model to obtain an estimate associated with an adversarial dual sampler. To represent this sampler, we introduce a novel neural architecture, dynamics embedding, that generalizes Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo (HMC). The proposed approach inherits the flexibility of HMC while enabling tractable entropy estimation for the augmented model. By learning both a dual sampler and the primal model simultaneously, and sharing parameters between them, we obviate the requirement to design a separate sampling procedure once the model has been trained, leading to more effective learning. We show that many existing estimators, such as contrastive divergence, pseudo/composite-likelihood, score matching, minimum Stein discrepancy estimator, non-local contrastive objectives, noise-contrastive estimation, and minimum probability flow, are special cases of the proposed approach, each expressed by a different (fixed) dual sampler. An empirical investigation shows that adapting the sampler during MLE can significantly improve on state-of-the-art estimators.

preprint2020arXiv

Kernel Instrumental Variable Regression

Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a strategy for learning causal relationships in observational data. If measurements of input X and output Y are confounded, the causal relationship can nonetheless be identified if an instrumental variable Z is available that influences X directly, but is conditionally independent of Y given X and the unmeasured confounder. The classic two-stage least squares algorithm (2SLS) simplifies the estimation problem by modeling all relationships as linear functions. We propose kernel instrumental variable regression (KIV), a nonparametric generalization of 2SLS, modeling relations among X, Y, and Z as nonlinear functions in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs). We prove the consistency of KIV under mild assumptions, and derive conditions under which convergence occurs at the minimax optimal rate for unconfounded, single-stage RKHS regression. In doing so, we obtain an efficient ratio between training sample sizes used in the algorithm's first and second stages. In experiments, KIV outperforms state of the art alternatives for nonparametric IV regression.

preprint2020arXiv

Kernelized Stein Discrepancy Tests of Goodness-of-fit for Time-to-Event Data

Survival Analysis and Reliability Theory are concerned with the analysis of time-to-event data, in which observations correspond to waiting times until an event of interest such as death from a particular disease or failure of a component in a mechanical system. This type of data is unique due to the presence of censoring, a type of missing data that occurs when we do not observe the actual time of the event of interest but, instead, we have access to an approximation for it given by random interval in which the observation is known to belong. Most traditional methods are not designed to deal with censoring, and thus we need to adapt them to censored time-to-event data. In this paper, we focus on non-parametric goodness-of-fit testing procedures based on combining the Stein's method and kernelized discrepancies. While for uncensored data, there is a natural way of implementing a kernelized Stein discrepancy test, for censored data there are several options, each of them with different advantages and disadvantages. In this paper, we propose a collection of kernelized Stein discrepancy tests for time-to-event data, and we study each of them theoretically and empirically; our experimental results show that our proposed methods perform better than existing tests, including previous tests based on a kernelized maximum mean discrepancy.

preprint2020arXiv

Kernelized Wasserstein Natural Gradient

Many machine learning problems can be expressed as the optimization of some cost functional over a parametric family of probability distributions. It is often beneficial to solve such optimization problems using natural gradient methods. These methods are invariant to the parametrization of the family, and thus can yield more effective optimization. Unfortunately, computing the natural gradient is challenging as it requires inverting a high dimensional matrix at each iteration. We propose a general framework to approximate the natural gradient for the Wasserstein metric, by leveraging a dual formulation of the metric restricted to a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Our approach leads to an estimator for gradient direction that can trade-off accuracy and computational cost, with theoretical guarantees. We verify its accuracy on simple examples, and show the advantage of using such an estimator in classification tasks on Cifar10 and Cifar100 empirically.

preprint2016arXiv

A Kernel Test for Three-Variable Interactions with Random Processes

We apply a wild bootstrap method to the Lancaster three-variable interaction measure in order to detect factorisation of the joint distribution on three variables forming a stationary random process, for which the existing permutation bootstrap method fails. As in the i.i.d. case, the Lancaster test is found to outperform existing tests in cases for which two independent variables individually have a weak influence on a third, but that when considered jointly the influence is strong. The main contributions of this paper are twofold: first, we prove that the Lancaster statistic satisfies the conditions required to estimate the quantiles of the null distribution using the wild bootstrap; second, the manner in which this is proved is novel, simpler than existing methods, and can further be applied to other statistics.

preprint2016arXiv

A Kernel Test of Goodness of Fit

We propose a nonparametric statistical test for goodness-of-fit: given a set of samples, the test determines how likely it is that these were generated from a target density function. The measure of goodness-of-fit is a divergence constructed via Stein's method using functions from a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Our test statistic is based on an empirical estimate of this divergence, taking the form of a V-statistic in terms of the log gradients of the target density and the kernel. We derive a statistical test, both for i.i.d. and non-i.i.d. samples, where we estimate the null distribution quantiles using a wild bootstrap procedure. We apply our test to quantifying convergence of approximate Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, statistical model criticism, and evaluating quality of fit vs model complexity in nonparametric density estimation.

preprint2016arXiv

A Test of Relative Similarity For Model Selection in Generative Models

Probabilistic generative models provide a powerful framework for representing data that avoids the expense of manual annotation typically needed by discriminative approaches. Model selection in this generative setting can be challenging, however, particularly when likelihoods are not easily accessible. To address this issue, we introduce a statistical test of relative similarity, which is used to determine which of two models generates samples that are significantly closer to a real-world reference dataset of interest. We use as our test statistic the difference in maximum mean discrepancies (MMDs) between the reference dataset and each model dataset, and derive a powerful, low-variance test based on the joint asymptotic distribution of the MMDs between each reference-model pair. In experiments on deep generative models, including the variational auto-encoder and generative moment matching network, the tests provide a meaningful ranking of model performance as a function of parameter and training settings.

preprint2016arXiv

A Wild Bootstrap for Degenerate Kernel Tests

A wild bootstrap method for nonparametric hypothesis tests based on kernel distribution embeddings is proposed. This bootstrap method is used to construct provably consistent tests that apply to random processes, for which the naive permutation-based bootstrap fails. It applies to a large group of kernel tests based on V-statistics, which are degenerate under the null hypothesis, and non-degenerate elsewhere. To illustrate this approach, we construct a two-sample test, an instantaneous independence test and a multiple lag independence test for time series. In experiments, the wild bootstrap gives strong performance on synthetic examples, on audio data, and in performance benchmarking for the Gibbs sampler.

preprint2016arXiv

An Adaptive Test of Independence with Analytic Kernel Embeddings

A new computationally efficient dependence measure, and an adaptive statistical test of independence, are proposed. The dependence measure is the difference between analytic embeddings of the joint distribution and the product of the marginals, evaluated at a finite set of locations (features). These features are chosen so as to maximize a lower bound on the test power, resulting in a test that is data-efficient, and that runs in linear time (with respect to the sample size n). The optimized features can be interpreted as evidence to reject the null hypothesis, indicating regions in the joint domain where the joint distribution and the product of the marginals differ most. Consistency of the independence test is established, for an appropriate choice of features. In real-world benchmarks, independence tests using the optimized features perform comparably to the state-of-the-art quadratic-time HSIC test, and outperform competing O(n) and O(n log n) tests.

preprint2016arXiv

Fast Non-Parametric Tests of Relative Dependency and Similarity

We introduce two novel non-parametric statistical hypothesis tests. The first test, called the relative test of dependency, enables us to determine whether one source variable is significantly more dependent on a first target variable or a second. Dependence is measured via the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC). The second test, called the relative test of similarity, is use to determine which of the two samples from arbitrary distributions is significantly closer to a reference sample of interest and the relative measure of similarity is based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). To construct these tests, we have used as our test statistics the difference of HSIC statistics and of MMD statistics, respectively. The resulting tests are consistent and unbiased, and have favorable convergence properties. The effectiveness of the relative dependency test is demonstrated on several real-world problems: we identify languages groups from a multilingual parallel corpus, and we show that tumor location is more dependent on gene expression than chromosome imbalance. We also demonstrate the performance of the relative test of similarity over a broad selection of model comparisons problems in deep generative models.

preprint2016arXiv

Interpretable Distribution Features with Maximum Testing Power

Two semimetrics on probability distributions are proposed, given as the sum of differences of expectations of analytic functions evaluated at spatial or frequency locations (i.e, features). The features are chosen so as to maximize the distinguishability of the distributions, by optimizing a lower bound on test power for a statistical test using these features. The result is a parsimonious and interpretable indication of how and where two distributions differ locally. An empirical estimate of the test power criterion converges with increasing sample size, ensuring the quality of the returned features. In real-world benchmarks on high-dimensional text and image data, linear-time tests using the proposed semimetrics achieve comparable performance to the state-of-the-art quadratic-time maximum mean discrepancy test, while returning human-interpretable features that explain the test results.

preprint2016arXiv

Kernel Mean Shrinkage Estimators

A mean function in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), or a kernel mean, is central to kernel methods in that it is used by many classical algorithms such as kernel principal component analysis, and it also forms the core inference step of modern kernel methods that rely on embedding probability distributions in RKHSs. Given a finite sample, an empirical average has been used commonly as a standard estimator of the true kernel mean. Despite a widespread use of this estimator, we show that it can be improved thanks to the well-known Stein phenomenon. We propose a new family of estimators called kernel mean shrinkage estimators (KMSEs), which benefit from both theoretical justifications and good empirical performance. The results demonstrate that the proposed estimators outperform the standard one, especially in a "large d, small n" paradigm.

preprint2016arXiv

Learning Theory for Distribution Regression

We focus on the distribution regression problem: regressing to vector-valued outputs from probability measures. Many important machine learning and statistical tasks fit into this framework, including multi-instance learning and point estimation problems without analytical solution (such as hyperparameter or entropy estimation). Despite the large number of available heuristics in the literature, the inherent two-stage sampled nature of the problem makes the theoretical analysis quite challenging, since in practice only samples from sampled distributions are observable, and the estimates have to rely on similarities computed between sets of points. To the best of our knowledge, the only existing technique with consistency guarantees for distribution regression requires kernel density estimation as an intermediate step (which often performs poorly in practice), and the domain of the distributions to be compact Euclidean. In this paper, we study a simple, analytically computable, ridge regression-based alternative to distribution regression, where we embed the distributions to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and learn the regressor from the embeddings to the outputs. Our main contribution is to prove that this scheme is consistent in the two-stage sampled setup under mild conditions (on separable topological domains enriched with kernels): we present an exact computational-statistical efficiency trade-off analysis showing that our estimator is able to match the one-stage sampled minimax optimal rate [Caponnetto and De Vito, 2007; Steinwart et al., 2009]. This result answers a 17-year-old open question, establishing the consistency of the classical set kernel [Haussler, 1999; Gaertner et. al, 2002] in regression. We also cover consistency for more recent kernels on distributions, including those due to [Christmann and Steinwart, 2010].

preprint2016arXiv

MERLiN: Mixture Effect Recovery in Linear Networks

Causal inference concerns the identification of cause-effect relationships between variables, e.g. establishing whether a stimulus affects activity in a certain brain region. The observed variables themselves often do not constitute meaningful causal variables, however, and linear combinations need to be considered. In electroencephalographic studies, for example, one is not interested in establishing cause-effect relationships between electrode signals (the observed variables), but rather between cortical signals (the causal variables) which can be recovered as linear combinations of electrode signals. We introduce MERLiN (Mixture Effect Recovery in Linear Networks), a family of causal inference algorithms that implement a novel means of constructing causal variables from non-causal variables. We demonstrate through application to EEG data how the basic MERLiN algorithm can be extended for application to different (neuroimaging) data modalities. Given an observed linear mixture, the algorithms can recover a causal variable that is a linear effect of another given variable. That is, MERLiN allows us to recover a cortical signal that is affected by activity in a certain brain region, while not being a direct effect of the stimulus. The Python/Matlab implementation for all presented algorithms is available on https://github.com/sweichwald/MERLiN

preprint2016arXiv

Recovery of non-linear cause-effect relationships from linearly mixed neuroimaging data

Causal inference concerns the identification of cause-effect relationships between variables. However, often only linear combinations of variables constitute meaningful causal variables. For example, recovering the signal of a cortical source from electroencephalography requires a well-tuned combination of signals recorded at multiple electrodes. We recently introduced the MERLiN (Mixture Effect Recovery in Linear Networks) algorithm that is able to recover, from an observed linear mixture, a causal variable that is a linear effect of another given variable. Here we relax the assumption of this cause-effect relationship being linear and present an extended algorithm that can pick up non-linear cause-effect relationships. Thus, the main contribution is an algorithm (and ready to use code) that has broader applicability and allows for a richer model class. Furthermore, a comparative analysis indicates that the assumption of linear cause-effect relationships is not restrictive in analysing electroencephalographic data.

preprint2015arXiv

A low variance consistent test of relative dependency

We describe a novel non-parametric statistical hypothesis test of relative dependence between a source variable and two candidate target variables. Such a test enables us to determine whether one source variable is significantly more dependent on a first target variable or a second. Dependence is measured via the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), resulting in a pair of empirical dependence measures (source-target 1, source-target 2). We test whether the first dependence measure is significantly larger than the second. Modeling the covariance between these HSIC statistics leads to a provably more powerful test than the construction of independent HSIC statistics by sub-sampling. The resulting test is consistent and unbiased, and (being based on U-statistics) has favorable convergence properties. The test can be computed in quadratic time, matching the computational complexity of standard empirical HSIC estimators. The effectiveness of the test is demonstrated on several real-world problems: we identify language groups from a multilingual corpus, and we prove that tumor location is more dependent on gene expression than chromosomal imbalances. Source code is available for download at https://github.com/wbounliphone/reldep.

preprint2015arXiv

A simpler condition for consistency of a kernel independence test

A statistical test of independence may be constructed using the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) as a test statistic. The HSIC is defined as the distance between the embedding of the joint distribution, and the embedding of the product of the marginals, in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). It has previously been shown that when the kernel used in defining the joint embedding is characteristic (that is, the embedding of the joint distribution to the feature space is injective), then the HSIC-based test is consistent. In particular, it is sufficient for the product of kernels on the individual domains to be characteristic on the joint domain. In this note, it is established via a result of Lyons (2013) that HSIC-based independence tests are consistent when kernels on the marginals are characteristic on their respective domains, even when the product of kernels is not characteristic on the joint domain.

preprint2015arXiv

Fast Two-Sample Testing with Analytic Representations of Probability Measures

We propose a class of nonparametric two-sample tests with a cost linear in the sample size. Two tests are given, both based on an ensemble of distances between analytic functions representing each of the distributions. The first test uses smoothed empirical characteristic functions to represent the distributions, the second uses distribution embeddings in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Analyticity implies that differences in the distributions may be detected almost surely at a finite number of randomly chosen locations/frequencies. The new tests are consistent against a larger class of alternatives than the previous linear-time tests based on the (non-smoothed) empirical characteristic functions, while being much faster than the current state-of-the-art quadratic-time kernel-based or energy distance-based tests. Experiments on artificial benchmarks and on challenging real-world testing problems demonstrate that our tests give a better power/time tradeoff than competing approaches, and in some cases, better outright power than even the most expensive quadratic-time tests. This performance advantage is retained even in high dimensions, and in cases where the difference in distributions is not observable with low order statistics.

preprint2015arXiv

Filtering with State-Observation Examples via Kernel Monte Carlo Filter

This paper addresses the problem of filtering with a state-space model. Standard approaches for filtering assume that a probabilistic model for observations (i.e. the observation model) is given explicitly or at least parametrically. We consider a setting where this assumption is not satisfied; we assume that the knowledge of the observation model is only provided by examples of state-observation pairs. This setting is important and appears when state variables are defined as quantities that are very different from the observations. We propose Kernel Monte Carlo Filter, a novel filtering method that is focused on this setting. Our approach is based on the framework of kernel mean embeddings, which enables nonparametric posterior inference using the state-observation examples. The proposed method represents state distributions as weighted samples, propagates these samples by sampling, estimates the state posteriors by Kernel Bayes' Rule, and resamples by Kernel Herding. In particular, the sampling and resampling procedures are novel in being expressed using kernel mean embeddings, so we theoretically analyze their behaviors. We reveal the following properties, which are similar to those of corresponding procedures in particle methods: (1) the performance of sampling can degrade if the effective sample size of a weighted sample is small; (2) resampling improves the sampling performance by increasing the effective sample size. We first demonstrate these theoretical findings by synthetic experiments. Then we show the effectiveness of the proposed filter by artificial and real data experiments, which include vision-based mobile robot localization.

preprint2015arXiv

Gradient-free Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with Efficient Kernel Exponential Families

We propose Kernel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (KMC), a gradient-free adaptive MCMC algorithm based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). On target densities where classical HMC is not an option due to intractable gradients, KMC adaptively learns the target's gradient structure by fitting an exponential family model in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. Computational costs are reduced by two novel efficient approximations to this gradient. While being asymptotically exact, KMC mimics HMC in terms of sampling efficiency, and offers substantial mixing improvements over state-of-the-art gradient free samplers. We support our claims with experimental studies on both toy and real-world applications, including Approximate Bayesian Computation and exact-approximate MCMC.

preprint2015arXiv

Kernel-Based Just-In-Time Learning for Passing Expectation Propagation Messages

We propose an efficient nonparametric strategy for learning a message operator in expectation propagation (EP), which takes as input the set of incoming messages to a factor node, and produces an outgoing message as output. This learned operator replaces the multivariate integral required in classical EP, which may not have an analytic expression. We use kernel-based regression, which is trained on a set of probability distributions representing the incoming messages, and the associated outgoing messages. The kernel approach has two main advantages: first, it is fast, as it is implemented using a novel two-layer random feature representation of the input message distributions; second, it has principled uncertainty estimates, and can be cheaply updated online, meaning it can request and incorporate new training data when it encounters inputs on which it is uncertain. In experiments, our approach is able to solve learning problems where a single message operator is required for multiple, substantially different data sets (logistic regression for a variety of classification problems), where it is essential to accurately assess uncertainty and to efficiently and robustly update the message operator.

preprint2015arXiv

Passing Expectation Propagation Messages with Kernel Methods

We propose to learn a kernel-based message operator which takes as input all expectation propagation (EP) incoming messages to a factor node and produces an outgoing message. In ordinary EP, computing an outgoing message involves estimating a multivariate integral which may not have an analytic expression. Learning such an operator allows one to bypass the expensive computation of the integral during inference by directly mapping all incoming messages into an outgoing message. The operator can be learned from training data (examples of input and output messages) which allows automated inference to be made on any kind of factor that can be sampled.

preprint2015arXiv

Two-stage Sampled Learning Theory on Distributions

We focus on the distribution regression problem: regressing to a real-valued response from a probability distribution. Although there exist a large number of similarity measures between distributions, very little is known about their generalization performance in specific learning tasks. Learning problems formulated on distributions have an inherent two-stage sampled difficulty: in practice only samples from sampled distributions are observable, and one has to build an estimate on similarities computed between sets of points. To the best of our knowledge, the only existing method with consistency guarantees for distribution regression requires kernel density estimation as an intermediate step (which suffers from slow convergence issues in high dimensions), and the domain of the distributions to be compact Euclidean. In this paper, we provide theoretical guarantees for a remarkably simple algorithmic alternative to solve the distribution regression problem: embed the distributions to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and learn a ridge regressor from the embeddings to the outputs. Our main contribution is to prove the consistency of this technique in the two-stage sampled setting under mild conditions (on separable, topological domains endowed with kernels). For a given total number of observations, we derive convergence rates as an explicit function of the problem difficulty. As a special case, we answer a 15-year-old open question: we establish the consistency of the classical set kernel [Haussler, 1999; Gartner et. al, 2002] in regression, and cover more recent kernels on distributions, including those due to [Christmann and Steinwart, 2010].

preprint2014arXiv

A Kernel Independence Test for Random Processes

A new non parametric approach to the problem of testing the independence of two random process is developed. The test statistic is the Hilbert Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC), which was used previously in testing independence for i.i.d pairs of variables. The asymptotic behaviour of HSIC is established when computed from samples drawn from random processes. It is shown that earlier bootstrap procedures which worked in the i.i.d. case will fail for random processes, and an alternative consistent estimate of the p-values is proposed. Tests on artificial data and real-world Forex data indicate that the new test procedure discovers dependence which is missed by linear approaches, while the earlier bootstrap procedure returns an elevated number of false positives. The code is available online: https://github.com/kacperChwialkowski/HSIC .

preprint2014arXiv

B-tests: Low Variance Kernel Two-Sample Tests

A family of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) kernel two-sample tests is introduced. Members of the test family are called Block-tests or B-tests, since the test statistic is an average over MMDs computed on subsets of the samples. The choice of block size allows control over the tradeoff between test power and computation time. In this respect, the $B$-test family combines favorable properties of previously proposed MMD two-sample tests: B-tests are more powerful than a linear time test where blocks are just pairs of samples, yet they are more computationally efficient than a quadratic time test where a single large block incorporating all the samples is used to compute a U-statistic. A further important advantage of the B-tests is their asymptotically Normal null distribution: this is by contrast with the U-statistic, which is degenerate under the null hypothesis, and for which estimates of the null distribution are computationally demanding. Recent results on kernel selection for hypothesis testing transfer seamlessly to the B-tests, yielding a means to optimize test power via kernel choice.

preprint2014arXiv

Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings

A Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is introduced, for the purpose of sampling from a target distribution with strongly nonlinear support. The algorithm embeds the trajectory of the Markov chain into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), such that the feature space covariance of the samples informs the choice of proposal. The procedure is computationally efficient and straightforward to implement, since the RKHS moves can be integrated out analytically: our proposal distribution in the original space is a normal distribution whose mean and covariance depend on where the current sample lies in the support of the target distribution, and adapts to its local covariance structure. Furthermore, the procedure requires neither gradients nor any other higher order information about the target, making it particularly attractive for contexts such as Pseudo-Marginal MCMC. Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings outperforms competing fixed and adaptive samplers on multivariate, highly nonlinear target distributions, arising in both real-world and synthetic examples. Code may be downloaded at https://github.com/karlnapf/kameleon-mcmc.

preprint2013arXiv

A Kernel Test for Three-Variable Interactions

We introduce kernel nonparametric tests for Lancaster three-variable interaction and for total independence, using embeddings of signed measures into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. The resulting test statistics are straightforward to compute, and are used in powerful interaction tests, which are consistent against all alternatives for a large family of reproducing kernels. We show the Lancaster test to be sensitive to cases where two independent causes individually have weak influence on a third dependent variable, but their combined effect has a strong influence. This makes the Lancaster test especially suited to finding structure in directed graphical models, where it outperforms competing nonparametric tests in detecting such V-structures.

preprint2013arXiv

Equivalence of distance-based and RKHS-based statistics in hypothesis testing

We provide a unifying framework linking two classes of statistics used in two-sample and independence testing: on the one hand, the energy distances and distance covariances from the statistics literature; on the other, maximum mean discrepancies (MMD), that is, distances between embeddings of distributions to reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), as established in machine learning. In the case where the energy distance is computed with a semimetric of negative type, a positive definite kernel, termed distance kernel, may be defined such that the MMD corresponds exactly to the energy distance. Conversely, for any positive definite kernel, we can interpret the MMD as energy distance with respect to some negative-type semimetric. This equivalence readily extends to distance covariance using kernels on the product space. We determine the class of probability distributions for which the test statistics are consistent against all alternatives. Finally, we investigate the performance of the family of distance kernels in two-sample and independence tests: we show in particular that the energy distance most commonly employed in statistics is just one member of a parametric family of kernels, and that other choices from this family can yield more powerful tests.

preprint2013arXiv

Hilbert Space Embeddings of Predictive State Representations

Predictive State Representations (PSRs) are an expressive class of models for controlled stochastic processes. PSRs represent state as a set of predictions of future observable events. Because PSRs are defined entirely in terms of observable data, statistically consistent estimates of PSR parameters can be learned efficiently by manipulating moments of observed training data. Most learning algorithms for PSRs have assumed that actions and observations are finite with low cardinality. In this paper, we generalize PSRs to infinite sets of observations and actions, using the recent concept of Hilbert space embeddings of distributions. The essence is to represent the state as a nonparametric conditional embedding operator in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) and leverage recent work in kernel methods to estimate, predict, and update the representation. We show that these Hilbert space embeddings of PSRs are able to gracefully handle continuous actions and observations, and that our learned models outperform competing system identification algorithms on several prediction benchmarks.

preprint2013arXiv

Kernel Mean Estimation and Stein's Effect

A mean function in reproducing kernel Hilbert space, or a kernel mean, is an important part of many applications ranging from kernel principal component analysis to Hilbert-space embedding of distributions. Given finite samples, an empirical average is the standard estimate for the true kernel mean. We show that this estimator can be improved via a well-known phenomenon in statistics called Stein's phenomenon. After consideration, our theoretical analysis reveals the existence of a wide class of estimators that are better than the standard. Focusing on a subset of this class, we propose efficient shrinkage estimators for the kernel mean. Empirical evaluations on several benchmark applications clearly demonstrate that the proposed estimators outperform the standard kernel mean estimator.

preprint2012arXiv

Conditional mean embeddings as regressors - supplementary

We demonstrate an equivalence between reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embeddings of conditional distributions and vector-valued regressors. This connection introduces a natural regularized loss function which the RKHS embeddings minimise, providing an intuitive understanding of the embeddings and a justification for their use. Furthermore, the equivalence allows the application of vector-valued regression methods and results to the problem of learning conditional distributions. Using this link we derive a sparse version of the embedding by considering alternative formulations. Further, by applying convergence results for vector-valued regression to the embedding problem we derive minimax convergence rates which are O(\log(n)/n) -- compared to current state of the art rates of O(n^{-1/4}) -- and are valid under milder and more intuitive assumptions. These minimax upper rates coincide with lower rates up to a logarithmic factor, showing that the embedding method achieves nearly optimal rates. We study our sparse embedding algorithm in a reinforcement learning task where the algorithm shows significant improvement in sparsity over an incomplete Cholesky decomposition.

preprint2012arXiv

Hilbert Space Embeddings of POMDPs

A nonparametric approach for policy learning for POMDPs is proposed. The approach represents distributions over the states, observations, and actions as embeddings in feature spaces, which are reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Distributions over states given the observations are obtained by applying the kernel Bayes' rule to these distribution embeddings. Policies and value functions are defined on the feature space over states, which leads to a feature space expression for the Bellman equation. Value iteration may then be used to estimate the optimal value function and associated policy. Experimental results confirm that the correct policy is learned using the feature space representation.

preprint2012arXiv

Hypothesis testing using pairwise distances and associated kernels (with Appendix)

We provide a unifying framework linking two classes of statistics used in two-sample and independence testing: on the one hand, the energy distances and distance covariances from the statistics literature; on the other, distances between embeddings of distributions to reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS), as established in machine learning. The equivalence holds when energy distances are computed with semimetrics of negative type, in which case a kernel may be defined such that the RKHS distance between distributions corresponds exactly to the energy distance. We determine the class of probability distributions for which kernels induced by semimetrics are characteristic (that is, for which embeddings of the distributions to an RKHS are injective). Finally, we investigate the performance of this family of kernels in two-sample and independence tests: we show in particular that the energy distance most commonly employed in statistics is just one member of a parametric family of kernels, and that other choices from this family can yield more powerful tests.

preprint2012arXiv

Modeling transition dynamics in MDPs with RKHS embeddings of conditional distributions

We propose a new, nonparametric approach to estimating the value function in reinforcement learning. This approach makes use of a recently developed representation of conditional distributions as functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Such representations bypass the need for estimating transition probabilities, and apply to any domain on which kernels can be defined. Our approach avoids the need to approximate intractable integrals since expectations are represented as RKHS inner products whose computation has linear complexity in the sample size. Thus, we can efficiently perform value function estimation in a wide variety of settings, including finite state spaces, continuous states spaces, and partially observable tasks where only sensor measurements are available. A second advantage of the approach is that we learn the conditional distribution representation from a training sample, and do not require an exhaustive exploration of the state space. We prove convergence of our approach either to the optimal policy, or to the closest projection of the optimal policy in our model class, under reasonable assumptions. In experiments, we demonstrate the performance of our algorithm on a learning task in a continuous state space (the under-actuated pendulum), and on a navigation problem where only images from a sensor are observed. We compare with least-squares policy iteration where a Gaussian process is used for value function estimation. Our algorithm achieves better performance in both tasks.

preprint2012arXiv

Modelling transition dynamics in MDPs with RKHS embeddings

We propose a new, nonparametric approach to learning and representing transition dynamics in Markov decision processes (MDPs), which can be combined easily with dynamic programming methods for policy optimisation and value estimation. This approach makes use of a recently developed representation of conditional distributions as \emph{embeddings} in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Such representations bypass the need for estimating transition probabilities or densities, and apply to any domain on which kernels can be defined. This avoids the need to calculate intractable integrals, since expectations are represented as RKHS inner products whose computation has linear complexity in the number of points used to represent the embedding. We provide guarantees for the proposed applications in MDPs: in the context of a value iteration algorithm, we prove convergence to either the optimal policy, or to the closest projection of the optimal policy in our model class (an RKHS), under reasonable assumptions. In experiments, we investigate a learning task in a typical classical control setting (the under-actuated pendulum), and on a navigation problem where only images from a sensor are observed. For policy optimisation we compare with least-squares policy iteration where a Gaussian process is used for value function estimation. For value estimation we also compare to the NPDP method. Our approach achieves better performance in all experiments.

preprint2011arXiv

Kernel Bayes' rule

A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Probabilities are uniquely characterized by the mean of the canonical map to the RKHS. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed in terms of RKHS functions of an empirical sample: no explicit parametric model is needed for these quantities. The posterior is likewise an RKHS mean of a weighted sample. The estimator for the expectation of a function of the posterior is derived, and rates of consistency are shown. Some representative applications of the kernel Bayes' rule are presented, including Baysian computation without likelihood and filtering with a nonparametric state-space model.

preprint2011arXiv

Kernel Belief Propagation

We propose a nonparametric generalization of belief propagation, Kernel Belief Propagation (KBP), for pairwise Markov random fields. Messages are represented as functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), and message updates are simple linear operations in the RKHS. KBP makes none of the assumptions commonly required in classical BP algorithms: the variables need not arise from a finite domain or a Gaussian distribution, nor must their relations take any particular parametric form. Rather, the relations between variables are represented implicitly, and are learned nonparametrically from training data. KBP has the advantage that it may be used on any domain where kernels are defined (Rd, strings, groups), even where explicit parametric models are not known, or closed form expressions for the BP updates do not exist. The computational cost of message updates in KBP is polynomial in the training data size. We also propose a constant time approximate message update procedure by representing messages using a small number of basis functions. In experiments, we apply KBP to image denoising, depth prediction from still images, and protein configuration prediction: KBP is faster than competing classical and nonparametric approaches (by orders of magnitude, in some cases), while providing significantly more accurate results.

preprint2010arXiv

Hilbert space embeddings and metrics on probability measures

A Hilbert space embedding for probability measures has recently been proposed, with applications including dimensionality reduction, homogeneity testing, and independence testing. This embedding represents any probability measure as a mean element in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). A pseudometric on the space of probability measures can be defined as the distance between distribution embeddings: we denote this as $γ_k$, indexed by the kernel function $k$ that defines the inner product in the RKHS. We present three theoretical properties of $γ_k$. First, we consider the question of determining the conditions on the kernel $k$ for which $γ_k$ is a metric: such $k$ are denoted {\em characteristic kernels}. Unlike pseudometrics, a metric is zero only when two distributions coincide, thus ensuring the RKHS embedding maps all distributions uniquely (i.e., the embedding is injective). While previously published conditions may apply only in restricted circumstances (e.g. on compact domains), and are difficult to check, our conditions are straightforward and intuitive: bounded continuous strictly positive definite kernels are characteristic. Alternatively, if a bounded continuous kernel is translation-invariant on $\bb{R}^d$, then it is characteristic if and only if the support of its Fourier transform is the entire $\bb{R}^d$. Second, we show that there exist distinct distributions that are arbitrarily close in $γ_k$. Third, to understand the nature of the topology induced by $γ_k$, we relate $γ_k$ to other popular metrics on probability measures, and present conditions on the kernel $k$ under which $γ_k$ metrizes the weak topology.