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Researcher profile

Jürgen Kurths

Jürgen Kurths contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
physics.soc-phnlin.AOnlin.CDphysics.ao-phphysics.data-anmath.DSeess.SYMachine Learningphysics.comp-phphysics.geo-phSystems and ControlArtificial IntelligenceBiological PhysicsComputational Engineering, Finance, and Sciencecond-mat.dis-nncond-mat.stat-mechNeural and Evolutionary ComputingSocial and Information Networks

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Published work

23 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

AI-Driven Stabilization in Power Grids through Controlling Line Admittances

The global transition from traditional power plants to renewable energy sources introduces new challenges in grid stability, primarily because inverter-based technologies provide insufficient inertia. To address this, we introduce an artificial intelligence algorithm that autonomously stabilizes power grids by adaptively tuning admittance regulators in response to disturbances. This Adaptive Admittance Controller (AAC) algorithm not only stabilizes the system in real time but also identifies the best regulator locations, thereby unifying grid planning and real time control within a single framework. When tested on a real UK power grid, the AAC markedly reduces frequency deviations and rapidly restores nominal operation. In addition, the algorithm isolates a small number of key regulators and intervenes only on these, lowering both system complexity and cost. The AAC algorithm further reduces the nonlinearity effect, quickly stabilizing the frequency and power flow. This intelligent control scheme enables power grids to reliably return to stable operating conditions under a broad spectrum of fault scenarios. The proposed framework can also be used to mitigate cascading failures by adaptively controlling critical links in a variety of networked infrastructures, such as cascades of traffic congestion on road networks or fuse failures in energy-saving systems.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Climate and dengue synchronization in southern Brazil: a municipal analysis with cross-state validation

Dengue transmission is rapidly expanding beyond its historical tropical range, raising concerns about how climate change may alter the collective dynamics of epidemics. While most studies focus on transmission risk, much less is known about how climate affects the synchronization of outbreaks. In this work, we investigate dengue synchronization using epidemiological and climate data from 74 municipalities in the state of Paraná (southern Brazil) between 2010 and 2024. We quantify outbreak coherence using the Event Synchronization (ES) method. Our results reveal a transition from a low-transmission regime to a high-transmission regime accompanied by a marked increase in synchronization across cities. We also show that climate anomalies increase the number of permissive days for dengue transmission. Our results suggest that such days are significantly associated with outbreak synchronization. We identify a two-stage climate mechanism: conducive climatic conditions first reduce the probability of asynchronous states and coincide with the emergence of synchronized outbreaks, and subsequently sustain higher synchronization levels. Extending the analysis through comparative analyses in Ceará and Minas Gerais, we uncover that climate consistently amplifies synchronization, although its role in the onset of synchronization depends on regional climatic regimes. These findings highlight climate-driven synchronization as an emerging feature shaping dengue dynamics.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Long-term prediction of ENSO with physics-guided Deep Echo State Networks

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that operates on physically interpretable climate modes selected from the extended recharge oscillator (XRO) framework. DESN achieves skillful Niño3.4 predictions up to 16-20 months ahead with minimal computational cost. Mechanistic experiments show that extended predictability arises from nonlinear coupling between warm water volume and inter-basin climate modes. Error-growth analysis further indicates a finite ENSO predictability horizon of approximately 30 months. These results demonstrate that physics-guided reservoir computing provides an efficient and interpretable framework for diagnosing and predicting ENSO at long lead times.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2026arXiv

Recurrence Patterns Correlation

Recurrence plots (RPs) are powerful tools for visualizing time series dynamics; however, traditional Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) often relies on global metrics, such as line counting, that can overlook system-specific, localized structures. To address this, we introduce Recurrence Pattern Correlation (RPC), a quantifier inspired by spatial statistics that bridges the gap between qualitative RP inspection and quantitative analysis. RPC is designed to measure the correlation degree of an RP to patterns of arbitrary shape and scale. By choosing patterns with specific time lags, we visualize the unstable manifolds of periodic orbits within the Logistic map bifurcation diagram, dissect the mixed phase space of the Standard map, and track the unstable periodic orbits of the Lorenz '63 system's 3-dimensional phase space. This framework reveals how long-range correlations in recurrence patterns encode the underlying properties of nonlinear dynamics and provides a more flexible tool to analyze pattern formation in recurrent dynamical systems.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Universal bifurcation scenarios in delay-differential equations with one delay

We show that delay-differential equations (DDE) exhibit universal bifurcation scenarios, which are observed in large classes of DDEs with a single delay. Each such universality class has the same sequence of stabilizing or destabilizing Hopf bifurcations. These bifurcation sequences and universality classes can be explicitly described by using the asymptotic continuous spectrum for DDEs with large delays. Here, we mainly study linear DDEs, provide a general transversality result for the delay-induced bifurcations, and consider three most common universality classes. For each of them, we explicitly describe the sequence of stabilizing and destabilizing bifurcations. We also illustrate the implications for a nonlinear Stuart-Landau oscillator with time-delayed feedback.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Perspectives on the importance of complex systems in understanding ourclimate and climate change -- The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021

The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 was awarded to Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselmann, and Giorgio Parisi for their 'groundbreaking contributions to our understanding of complex systems' including major advances in the understanding of our climate and climate change. In this perspective article, we review their key contributions and discuss their relevance in relation to the present understanding of our climate. We conclude by outlining some promising research directions and open questions in climate science.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Predicting Basin Stability of Power Grids using Graph Neural Networks

The prediction of dynamical stability of power grids becomes more important and challenging with increasing shares of renewable energy sources due to their decentralized structure, reduced inertia and volatility. We investigate the feasibility of applying graph neural networks (GNN) to predict dynamic stability of synchronisation in complex power grids using the single-node basin stability (SNBS) as a measure. To do so, we generate two synthetic datasets for grids with 20 and 100 nodes respectively and estimate SNBS using Monte-Carlo sampling. Those datasets are used to train and evaluate the performance of eight different GNN-models. All models use the full graph without simplifications as input and predict SNBS in a nodal-regression-setup. We show that SNBS can be predicted in general and the performance significantly changes using different GNN-models. Furthermore, we observe interesting transfer capabilities of our approach: GNN-models trained on smaller grids can directly be applied on larger grids without the need of retraining.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

PrEF: Percolation-based Evolutionary Framework for the diffusion-source-localization problem in large networks

We assume that the state of a number of nodes in a network could be investigated if necessary, and study what configuration of those nodes could facilitate a better solution for the diffusion-source-localization (DSL) problem. In particular, we formulate a candidate set which contains the diffusion source for sure, and propose the method, Percolation-based Evolutionary Framework (PrEF), to minimize such set. Hence one could further conduct more intensive investigation on only a few nodes to target the source. To achieve that, we first demonstrate that there are some similarities between the DSL problem and the network immunization problem. We find that the minimization of the candidate set is equivalent to the minimization of the order parameter if we view the observer set as the removal node set. Hence, PrEF is developed based on the network percolation and evolutionary algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated on both model and empirical networks in regard to varied circumstances. Our results show that the developed approach could achieve a much smaller candidate set compared to the state of the art in almost all cases. Meanwhile, our approach is also more stable, i.e., it has similar performance irrespective of varied infection probabilities, diffusion models, and outbreak ranges. More importantly, our approach might provide a new framework to tackle the DSL problem in extreme large networks.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Rijke tube: A nonlinear oscillator

Dynamical systems theory has emerged as an interdisciplinary area of research to characterize the complex dynamical transitions in real-world systems. Various nonlinear dynamical phenomena and bifurcations have been discovered over the decades using different reduced-order models of oscillators. Different measures and methodologies have been developed theoretically to detect, control, or suppress the nonlinear oscillations. However, obtaining such phenomena experimentally is often challenging, time-consuming, and risky, mainly due to the limited control of certain parameters during experiments. With this review, we aim to introduce a paradigmatic and easily configurable Rijke tube oscillator to the dynamical systems community. The Rijke tube is commonly used by the combustion community as a prototype to investigate the detrimental phenomena of thermoacoustic instability. Recent investigations in such Rijke tubes have utilized various methodologies from dynamical systems theory to better understand the occurrence of thermoacoustic oscillations, their prediction and mitigation, both experimentally and theoretically. The existence of various dynamical behaviors has been reported in single as well as coupled Rijke tube oscillators. These behaviors include bifurcations, routes to chaos, noise-induced transitions, synchronization, and suppression of oscillations. Various early warning measures have been established to predict thermoacoustic instabilities. Therefore, this review paper consolidates the usefulness of a Rijke tube oscillator in terms of experimentally discovering and modeling different nonlinear phenomena observed in physics; thus, transcending the boundaries between the physics and the engineering communities.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Teleconnections among Tipping Elements in the Earth System

Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not fully clear how to assess and quantify the influence of a tipping element and how to explore the teleconnections between different tipping elements. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a climate network approach to quantitatively analyze the global impacts of a prominent tipping element, the Amazon Rainforest Area (ARA). We find that regions, such as, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and West Antarctic ice sheet, are characterized by higher network weighted links and exhibit strong correlations with the ARA. We then identify a teleconnection propagation path between the ARA and the TP. This path is robust under climate change as simulated by various climate models of CMIP5 and CMIP6. In addition, we detect early warning signals for critical transition in the snow cover extent on the Tibetan Plateau by applying critical slowing down indicators, lag-1 autocorrelation and detrended fluctuation analysis. We find that the snow cover of the TP has been losing stability since 2008, revealing that the TP is operating like a tipping element and approaching a potential tipping point. We further uncover that various climate extremes between the ARA and the TP are significantly synchronized under climate change. Our framework provides new insights into how tipping elements are linked to each other and into the potential predictability of cascading tipping dynamics.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

MFDFA: Efficient Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in Python

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) has become a central method to characterise the variability and uncertainty in empiric time series. Extracting the fluctuations on different temporal scales allows quantifying the strength and correlations in the underlying stochastic properties, their scaling behaviour, as well as the level of fractality. Several extensions to the fundamental method have been developed over the years, vastly enhancing the applicability of MFDFA, e.g. empirical mode decomposition for the study of long-range correlations and persistence. In this article we introduce an efficient, easy-to-use python library for MFDFA, incorporating the most common extensions and harnessing the most of multi-threaded processing for very fast calculations.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Optimization of coupling and global collapse in diffusively coupled socio-ecological resource exploitation networks

Single- and multi-layer complex networks have been proven as a powerful tool to study the dynamics within social, technological,or natural systems. An often observed common goal there is to optimize these systems for specific purposes by minimizing certain costs while maximizing a desired output. Acknowledging that especially real-world systems from the coupled socio-ecological realm are highly intertwined this work exemplifies that in such systems the optimization of a certain subsystem, e.g., to increase the resilience against external pressure in an ecological network, may unexpectedly diminish the stability of the whole coupled system. For this purpose we utilize an adaptation of a previously proposed conceptual bilayer network model composed of an ecological network of diffusively coupled resources co-evolving with a social network of interacting agents that harvest these resources and learn each other's strategies depending on individual success. We derive an optimal coupling strength that prevents a collapse in as many resources as possible if one assumes that the agents' strategies remain constant over time. However, we then show that if agents socially learn and adapt strategies according to their neighbors' success, this optimal coupling strength is revealed to be a critical parameter above which the probability for a global collapse in terms of irreversibly depleted resources is high -- an effect that we denote the tragedy of the optimizer. We thus find that measures which stabilize the dynamics within a certain part of a larger co-evolutionary system may unexpectedly cause the emergence of novel undesired globally stable states. Our results therefore underline the importance of holistic approaches for managing socio-ecological systems because stabilizing effects which focus on single subsystems may be counter-beneficial for the system as a whole.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Quantifying model uncertainty for the observed non-Gaussian data by the Hellinger distance

Mathematical models for complex systems under random fluctuations often certain uncertain parameters. However, quantifying model uncertainty for a stochastic differential equation with an $α$-stable Lévy process is still lacking. Here, we propose an approach to infer all the uncertain non-Gaussian parameters and other system parameters by minimizing the Hellinger distance over the parameter space. The Hellinger distance measures the similarity between an empirical probability density of non-Gaussian observations and a solution (as a probability density) of the associated nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation. Numerical experiments verify that our method is feasible for estimating single and multiple parameters. Meanwhile, we find an optimal estimation interval of the estimated parameters. This method is beneficial for extracting governing dynamical system models under non-Gaussian fluctuations, as in the study of abrupt climate changes in the Dansgaard-Oeschger events.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

The climatic interdependence of extreme-rainfall events around the globe

The identification of regions of similar climatological behavior can be utilized for the discovery of spatial relationships over long-range scales, including teleconnections. In this regard, the global picture of the interdependence patterns of extreme rainfall events (EREs) still needs to be further explored. To this end, we propose a top-down complex-network-based clustering workflow, with the combination of consensus clustering and mutual correspondences. Consensus clustering provides a reliable community structure under each dataset, while mutual correspondences build a matching relationship between different community structures obtained from different datasets. This approach ensures the robustness of the identified structures when multiple datasets are available. By applying it simultaneously to two satellite-derived precipitation datasets, we identify consistent synchronized structures of EREs around the globe, during boreal summer. Two of them show independent spatiotemporal characteristics, uncovering the primary compositions of different monsoon systems. They explicitly manifest the primary intraseasonal variability in the context of the global monsoon, in particular the `monsoon jump' over both East Asia and West Africa and the mid-summer drought over Central America and southern Mexico. Through a case study related to the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), we verify that the intraseasonal changes of upper-level atmospheric conditions are preserved by significant connections within the global synchronization structure. Our work advances network-based clustering methodology for (i) decoding the spatiotemporal configuration of interdependence patterns of natural variability and for (ii) the intercomparison of these patterns, especially regarding their spatial distributions over different datasets.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

A multilayer, multi-timescale model approach for economic and frequency control in power grids

Power systems are subject to fundamental changes due to the increasing infeed of decentralised renewable energy sources and storage. The decentralised nature of the new actors in the system requires new concepts for structuring the power grid, and achieving a wide range of control tasks ranging from seconds to days. Here we introduce a multiplex dynamical network model covering all control timescales. Crucially, we combine a decentralised, self-organised low-level control and a smart grid layer of devices that can aggregate information from remote sources. The safety-critical task of frequency control is performed by the former, the economic objective of demand matching dispatch by the latter. Having both aspects present in the same model allows us to study the interaction between the layers. Remarkably, we find that adding communication in the form of aggregation does not improve the performance in the cases considered. Instead, the self-organised state of the system already contains the information required to learn the demand structure in the entire grid. The model introduced here is highly flexible, and can accommodate a wide range of scenarios relevant to future power grids. We expect that it is especially useful in the context of low-energy microgrids with distributed generation.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Impact of Network Topology on the Stability of DC Microgrids

We probe the stability of Watts-Strogatz DC microgrids, in which droop-controlled producers and constant power load consumers are homogeneously distributed and obey Kirchhoff's circuit laws. The concept of survivability is employed to evaluate the system's response to Dirac delta voltage perturbations at single nodes. A fixed point analysis of the power grid model yields that there is only one relevant attractor. Using a set of simulations with random networks we investigate correlations between survivability and three topological network measures: the share of producers in the network and the degree and the average neighbour degree of the perturbed node. Depending on the imposed voltage and current limits, the stability is optimized for low node degrees or a specific share of producers. Based on our findings, we provide an insight into the local dynamics of the perturbed system and derive explicit guidelines for the design of resilient DC power grids.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Multiplex Recurrence Networks

We have introduced a novel multiplex recurrence network (MRN) approach by combining recurrence networks with the multiplex network approach in order to investigate multivariate time series. The potential use of this approach is demonstrated on coupled map lattices and a typical example from palaeobotany research. In both examples, topological changes in the multiplex recurrence networks allow for the detection of regime changes in their dynamics. The method goes beyond classical interpretation of pollen records by considering the vegetation as a whole and using the intrinsic similarity in the dynamics of the different regional vegetation elements. We find that the different vegetation types behave more similar when one environmental factor acts as the dominant driving force.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Network-based Approach and Climate Change Benefits for Forecasting the Amount of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has a decisive influence on India's agricultural output and economy. Extreme deviations from the normal seasonal amount of rainfall can cause severe droughts or floods, affecting Indian food production and security. Despite the development of sophisticated statistical and dynamical climate models, a long-term and reliable prediction of the ISMR has remained a challenging problem. Towards achieving this goal, here we construct a series of dynamical and physical climate networks based on the global near surface air temperature field. We uncover that some characteristics of the directed and weighted climate networks can serve as efficient long-term predictors for ISMR forecasting. The developed prediction method produces a forecast skill of 0.5 with a 5-month lead-time in advance by using the previous calendar year's data. The skill of our ISMR forecast, is comparable to the current state-of-the-art models, however, with quite a short (i.e., within one month) lead-time. We discuss the underlying mechanism of our predictor and associate it with network-delayed-ENSO and ENSO-monsoon connections. Moreover, our approach allows predicting the all India rainfall, as well as forecasting the different Indian homogeneous regions' rainfall, which is crucial for agriculture in India. We reveal that global warming affects the climate network by enhancing cross-equatorial teleconnections between Southwest Atlantic, Western part of the Indian Ocean, and North Asia-Pacific with significant impacts on the precipitation in India. We find a hotspots area in the mid-latitude South Atlantic, which is the basis for our predictor. Remarkably, the significant warming trend in this area yields an improvement of the prediction skill.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

When Autonomous Systems Meet Accuracy and Transferability through AI: A Survey

With widespread applications of artificial intelligence (AI), the capabilities of the perception, understanding, decision-making and control for autonomous systems have improved significantly in the past years. When autonomous systems consider the performance of accuracy and transferability, several AI methods, like adversarial learning, reinforcement learning (RL) and meta-learning, show their powerful performance. Here, we review the learning-based approaches in autonomous systems from the perspectives of accuracy and transferability. Accuracy means that a well-trained model shows good results during the testing phase, in which the testing set shares a same task or a data distribution with the training set. Transferability means that when a well-trained model is transferred to other testing domains, the accuracy is still good. Firstly, we introduce some basic concepts of transfer learning and then present some preliminaries of adversarial learning, RL and meta-learning. Secondly, we focus on reviewing the accuracy or transferability or both of them to show the advantages of adversarial learning, like generative adversarial networks (GANs), in typical computer vision tasks in autonomous systems, including image style transfer, image superresolution, image deblurring/dehazing/rain removal, semantic segmentation, depth estimation, pedestrian detection and person re-identification (re-ID). Then, we further review the performance of RL and meta-learning from the aspects of accuracy or transferability or both of them in autonomous systems, involving pedestrian tracking, robot navigation and robotic manipulation. Finally, we discuss several challenges and future topics for using adversarial learning, RL and meta-learning in autonomous systems.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2019arXiv

Delay master stability of inertial oscillator networks

Time lags occur in a vast range of real-world dynamical systems due to finite reaction times or propagation speeds. Here we derive an analytical approach to determine the asymptotic stability of synchronous states in networks of coupled inertial oscillators with constant delay. Building on the master stability formalism, our technique provides necessary and sufficient delay master stability conditions. We apply it to two classes of potential future power grids, where processing delays in control dynamics will likely pose a challenge as renewable energies proliferate. Distinguishing between phase and frequency delay, our method offers an insight into how bifurcation points depend on the network topology of these system designs.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2019arXiv

Monte Carlo Basin Bifurcation Analysis

Many high-dimensional complex systems exhibit an enormously complex landscape of possible asymptotic states. Here, we present a numerical approach geared towards analyzing such systems. It is situated between the classical analysis with macroscopic order parameters and a more thorough, detailed bifurcation analysis. With our machine learning method, based on random sampling and clustering methods, we are able to characterize the different asymptotic states or classes thereof and even their basins of attraction. In order to do this, suitable, easy to compute, statistics of trajectories with randomly generated initial conditions and parameters are clustered by an algorithm such as DBSCAN. Due to its modular and flexible nature, our method has a wide range of possible applications. Typical applications are oscillator networks, but it is not limited only to ordinary differential equation systems, every complex system yielding trajectories, such as maps or agent-based models, can be analyzed, as we show by applying it the Dodds-Watts model, a generalized SIRS-model. A second order Kuramoto model and a Stuart-Landau oscillator network, each exhibiting a complex multistable regime, are shown as well. The method is available to use as a package for the Julia language.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2019arXiv

Solving Fokker-Planck equation using deep learning

The probability density function of stochastic differential equations is governed by the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation. A novel machine learning method is developed to solve the general FP equations based on deep neural networks. The proposed algorithm does not require any interpolation and coordinate transformation, which is different from the traditional numercial methods. The main novelty of this paper is that penalty factors are introduced to overcome the local optimization for the deep learning approach, and the corresponding setting rules are given. Meanwhile, we consider a normalization condition as a supervision condition to effectively avoid that the trial solution is zero. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate performances of the proposed algorithm, including one- and two-dimensional systems. All the results suggest that the deep learning is quite feasible and effective to calculate the FP equation. Further, influences of the number of hidden layers, the penalty factors, and the optimization algorithm are discussed in detail. These results indicate that the performances of the machine learning technique can be improved through constructing the neural networks appropriately.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2019arXiv

The physics of governance networks: critical transitions in contagion dynamics on multilayer adaptive networks with application to the sustainable use of renewable resources

Adaptive networks are a versatile approach to model phenomena such as contagion and spreading dynamics, critical transitions and structure formation that emerge from the dynamic coevolution of complex network structure and node states. Here, we study critical transitions in contagion dynamics on multilayer adaptive networks with dynamic node states and present an application to the governance of sustainable resource use. We focus on a three layer adaptive network model, where a polycentric governance network interacts with a social network of resource users which in turn interacts with an ecological network of renewable resources. We uncover that sustainability is favored for slow interaction timescales, large homophilic network adaptation rate (as long it is below the fragmentation threshold) and high taxation rates. Interestingly, we also observe a trade-off between an eco-dictatorship (reduced model with a single governance actor that always taxes unsustainable resource use) and the polycentric governance network of multiple actors. In the latter setup, sustainability is enhanced for low but hindered for high tax rates compared to the eco-dictatorship case. These results highlight mechanisms generating emergent critical transitions in contagion dynamics on multilayer adaptive network and show how these can be understood and approximated analytically, relevant for understanding complex adaptive systems from various disciplines ranging from physics and epidemiology to sociology and global sustainability science. The paper also provides insights into potential critical intervention points for policy in the form of taxes in the governance of sustainable renewable resource use that can inform more process-detailed social-ecological modeling.

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