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Researcher profile

Fredrik Lindsten

Fredrik Lindsten contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningComputationMethodologyphysics.ao-phSocial and Information Networks

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Published work

7 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Njord: A Probabilistic Graph Neural Network for Ensemble Ocean Forecasting

Ocean dynamics are inherently chaotic, yet existing machine learning ocean models produce only deterministic forecasts. We introduce Njord, a probabilistic data-driven model for ocean forecasting, applicable to both global and regional domains. Njord combines a deep latent variable framework with a graph neural network architecture, enabling sampling each forecast step in a single forward pass. We apply Njord globally at 0.25° resolution and regionally to the Baltic Sea at 2 km resolution. To scale to these large ocean grids we introduce K-means cluster meshes that adapt to irregular sea surface geometry. Experiments demonstrate strong performance on both domains compared to deterministic machine learning baselines, while also providing uncertainty estimates from the sampled ensemble forecasts. On the global OceanBench benchmark, Njord achieves the lowest errors on average across upper-ocean variables when evaluated against real-world observations, with the largest improvements in surface temperature prediction.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Robustness and Reliability When Training With Noisy Labels

Labelling of data for supervised learning can be costly and time-consuming and the risk of incorporating label noise in large data sets is imminent. When training a flexible discriminative model using a strictly proper loss, such noise will inevitably shift the solution towards the conditional distribution over noisy labels. Nevertheless, while deep neural networks have proven capable of fitting random labels, regularisation and the use of robust loss functions empirically mitigate the effects of label noise. However, such observations concern robustness in accuracy, which is insufficient if reliable uncertainty quantification is critical. We demonstrate this by analysing the properties of the conditional distribution over noisy labels for an input-dependent noise model. In addition, we evaluate the set of robust loss functions characterised by noise-insensitive, asymptotic risk minimisers. We find that strictly proper and robust loss functions both offer asymptotic robustness in accuracy, but neither guarantee that the final model is calibrated. Moreover, even with robust loss functions, overfitting is an issue in practice. With these results, we aim to explain observed robustness of common training practices, such as early stopping, to label noise. In addition, we aim to encourage the development of new noise-robust algorithms that not only preserve accuracy but that also ensure reliability.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Scalable Deep Gaussian Markov Random Fields for General Graphs

Machine learning methods on graphs have proven useful in many applications due to their ability to handle generally structured data. The framework of Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRFs) provides a principled way to define Gaussian models on graphs by utilizing their sparsity structure. We propose a flexible GMRF model for general graphs built on the multi-layer structure of Deep GMRFs, originally proposed for lattice graphs only. By designing a new type of layer we enable the model to scale to large graphs. The layer is constructed to allow for efficient training using variational inference and existing software frameworks for Graph Neural Networks. For a Gaussian likelihood, close to exact Bayesian inference is available for the latent field. This allows for making predictions with accompanying uncertainty estimates. The usefulness of the proposed model is verified by experiments on a number of synthetic and real world datasets, where it compares favorably to other both Bayesian and deep learning methods.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

A general framework for ensemble distribution distillation

Ensembles of neural networks have been shown to give better performance than single networks, both in terms of predictions and uncertainty estimation. Additionally, ensembles allow the uncertainty to be decomposed into aleatoric (data) and epistemic (model) components, giving a more complete picture of the predictive uncertainty. Ensemble distillation is the process of compressing an ensemble into a single model, often resulting in a leaner model that still outperforms the individual ensemble members. Unfortunately, standard distillation erases the natural uncertainty decomposition of the ensemble. We present a general framework for distilling both regression and classification ensembles in a way that preserves the decomposition. We demonstrate the desired behaviour of our framework and show that its predictive performance is on par with standard distillation.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Markovian Score Climbing: Variational Inference with KL(p||q)

Modern variational inference (VI) uses stochastic gradients to avoid intractable expectations, enabling large-scale probabilistic inference in complex models. VI posits a family of approximating distributions q and then finds the member of that family that is closest to the exact posterior p. Traditionally, VI algorithms minimize the "exclusive Kullback-Leibler (KL)" KL(q || p), often for computational convenience. Recent research, however, has also focused on the "inclusive KL" KL(p || q), which has good statistical properties that makes it more appropriate for certain inference problems. This paper develops a simple algorithm for reliably minimizing the inclusive KL using stochastic gradients with vanishing bias. This method, which we call Markovian score climbing (MSC), converges to a local optimum of the inclusive KL. It does not suffer from the systematic errors inherent in existing methods, such as Reweighted Wake-Sleep and Neural Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo, which lead to bias in their final estimates. We illustrate convergence on a toy model and demonstrate the utility of MSC on Bayesian probit regression for classification as well as a stochastic volatility model for financial data.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Deep Gaussian Markov Random Fields

Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are probabilistic graphical models widely used in spatial statistics and related fields to model dependencies over spatial structures. We establish a formal connection between GMRFs and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Common GMRFs are special cases of a generative model where the inverse mapping from data to latent variables is given by a 1-layer linear CNN. This connection allows us to generalize GMRFs to multi-layer CNN architectures, effectively increasing the order of the corresponding GMRF in a way which has favorable computational scaling. We describe how well-established tools, such as autodiff and variational inference, can be used for simple and efficient inference and learning of the deep GMRF. We demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed model and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art on a dataset of satellite temperatures, in terms of prediction and predictive uncertainty.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Particle filter with rejection control and unbiased estimator of the marginal likelihood

We consider the combined use of resampling and partial rejection control in sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle filters. While the variance reducing properties of rejection control are known, there has not been (to the best of our knowledge) any work on unbiased estimation of the marginal likelihood (also known as the model evidence or the normalizing constant) in this type of particle filter. Being able to estimate the marginal likelihood without bias is highly relevant for model comparison, computation of interpretable and reliable confidence intervals, and in exact approximation methods, such as particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. In the paper we present a particle filter with rejection control that enables unbiased estimation of the marginal likelihood.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access