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Researcher profile

Federico Cerutti

Federico Cerutti contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Artificial IntelligenceMachine Learning

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Preliminary Insights in Chronos Frequency Data Understanding and Reconstruction

This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the ability of Chronos foundation model to process and internally represent frequency domain information. Foundation models that process time-series data offer practitioners a unified architecture capable of learning generic temporal representations across diverse tasks and domains, reducing the need for task-specific feature engineering and enabling transfer across signal modalities. Despite their growing adoption, the extent to which such models encode fundamental signal properties remains insufficiently characterised. We address this gap by analysing Chronos under controlled conditions, starting from the simplest class of signals: discrete sinusoids generated at fixed frequencies. Using lightweight online minimum description length probes applied to the decoder architecture, we test for the presence and separability of frequency information in the model's internal representations. The results provide insight into how frequential content is captured across the frequency spectrum and highlight regimes in which representation quality may degrade or require particular care. These findings offer practical guidance for users of Chronos in signal processing and information fusion contexts, and contribute to ongoing efforts to improve the interpretability and evaluation of foundation models for temporal data.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Research Note on Uncertain Probabilities and Abstract Argumentation

The sixth assessment of the international panel on climate change (IPCC) states that "cumulative net CO2 emissions over the last decade (2010-2019) are about the same size as the 11 remaining carbon budget likely to limit warming to 1.5C (medium confidence)." Such reports directly feed the public discourse, but nuances such as the degree of belief and of confidence are often lost. In this paper, we propose a formal account for allowing such degrees of belief and the associated confidence to be used to label arguments in abstract argumentation settings. Differently from other proposals in probabilistic argumentation, we focus on the task of probabilistic inference over a chosen query building upon Sato's distribution semantics which has been already shown to encompass a variety of cases including the semantics of Bayesian networks. Borrowing from the vast literature on such semantics, we examine how such tasks can be dealt with in practice when considering uncertain probabilities, and discuss the connections with existing proposals for probabilistic argumentation.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

SOLBP: Second-Order Loopy Belief Propagation for Inference in Uncertain Bayesian Networks

In second-order uncertain Bayesian networks, the conditional probabilities are only known within distributions, i.e., probabilities over probabilities. The delta-method has been applied to extend exact first-order inference methods to propagate both means and variances through sum-product networks derived from Bayesian networks, thereby characterizing epistemic uncertainty, or the uncertainty in the model itself. Alternatively, second-order belief propagation has been demonstrated for polytrees but not for general directed acyclic graph structures. In this work, we extend Loopy Belief Propagation to the setting of second-order Bayesian networks, giving rise to Second-Order Loopy Belief Propagation (SOLBP). For second-order Bayesian networks, SOLBP generates inferences consistent with those generated by sum-product networks, while being more computationally efficient and scalable.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Uncertain Bayesian Networks: Learning from Incomplete Data

When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the probabilities and quantifying the uncertainty in these estimates. We refer to these cases as uncer tain or second-order Bayesian networks. When such data are complete, i.e., all variable values are observed for each instantiation, the conditional probabilities are known to be Dirichlet-distributed. This paper improves the current state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks by enabling them to learn distributions for their parameters, i.e., conditional probabilities, with incomplete data. We extensively evaluate various methods to learn the posterior of the parameters through the desired and empirically derived strength of confidence bounds for various queries.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Handling Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainties in Probabilistic Circuits

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for probabilistic reasoning in order to determine the confidence (or epistemic uncertainty) in the probabilities in light of the training data. We propose an approach to overcome the independence assumption behind most of the approaches dealing with a large class of probabilistic reasoning that includes Bayesian networks as well as several instances of probabilistic logic. We provide an algorithm for Bayesian learning from sparse, albeit complete, observations, and for deriving inferences and their confidences keeping track of the dependencies between variables when they are manipulated within the unifying computational formalism provided by probabilistic circuits. Each leaf of such circuits is labelled with a beta-distributed random variable that provides us with an elegant framework for representing uncertain probabilities. We achieve better estimation of epistemic uncertainty than state-of-the-art approaches, including highly engineered ones, while being able to handle general circuits and with just a modest increase in the computational effort compared to using point probabilities.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Increasing negotiation performance at the edge of the network

Automated negotiation has been used in a variety of distributed settings, such as privacy in the Internet of Things (IoT) devices and power distribution in Smart Grids. The most common protocol under which these agents negotiate is the Alternating Offers Protocol (AOP). Under this protocol, agents cannot express any additional information to each other besides a counter offer. This can lead to unnecessarily long negotiations when, for example, negotiations are impossible, risking to waste bandwidth that is a precious resource at the edge of the network. While alternative protocols exist which alleviate this problem, these solutions are too complex for low power devices, such as IoT sensors operating at the edge of the network. To improve this bottleneck, we introduce an extension to AOP called Alternating Constrained Offers Protocol (ACOP), in which agents can also express constraints to each other. This allows agents to both search the possibility space more efficiently and recognise impossible situations sooner. We empirically show that agents using ACOP can significantly reduce the number of messages a negotiation takes, independently of the strategy agents choose. In particular, we show our method significantly reduces the number of messages when an agreement is not possible. Furthermore, when an agreement is possible it reaches this agreement sooner with no negative effect on the utility.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

The current state of automated negotiation theory: a literature review

Automated negotiation can be an efficient method for resolving conflict and redistributing resources in a coalition setting. Automated negotiation has already seen increased usage in fields such as e-commerce and power distribution in smart girds, and recent advancements in opponent modelling have proven to deliver better outcomes. However, significant barriers to more widespread adoption remain, such as lack of predictable outcome over time and user trust. Additionally, there have been many recent advancements in the field of reasoning about uncertainty, which could help alleviate both those problems. As there is no recent survey on these two fields, and specifically not on their possible intersection we aim to provide such a survey here.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Uncertainty-Aware Deep Classifiers using Generative Models

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high uncertainty for the data samples close to class boundaries or from the outside of the training distribution. These approaches use an auxiliary data set during training to represent out-of-distribution samples. However, selection or creation of such an auxiliary data set is non-trivial, especially for high dimensional data such as images. In this work we develop a novel neural network model that is able to express both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty to distinguish decision boundary and out-of-distribution regions of the feature space. To this end, variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks are incorporated to automatically generate out-of-distribution exemplars for training. Through extensive analysis, we demonstrate that the proposed approach provides better estimates of uncertainty for in- and out-of-distribution samples, and adversarial examples on well-known data sets against state-of-the-art approaches including recent Bayesian approaches for neural networks and anomaly detection methods.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access