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Lance M. Kaplan

Lance M. Kaplan appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

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Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Databases Social and Information Networks

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preprint2026arXiv

Preliminary Insights in Chronos Frequency Data Understanding and Reconstruction

This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the ability of Chronos foundation model to process and internally represent frequency domain information. Foundation models that process time-series data offer practitioners a unified architecture capable of learning generic temporal representations across diverse tasks and domains, reducing the need for task-specific feature engineering and enabling transfer across signal modalities. Despite their growing adoption, the extent to which such models encode fundamental signal properties remains insufficiently characterised. We address this gap by analysing Chronos under controlled conditions, starting from the simplest class of signals: discrete sinusoids generated at fixed frequencies. Using lightweight online minimum description length probes applied to the decoder architecture, we test for the presence and separability of frequency information in the model's internal representations. The results provide insight into how frequential content is captured across the frequency spectrum and highlight regimes in which representation quality may degrade or require particular care. These findings offer practical guidance for users of Chronos in signal processing and information fusion contexts, and contribute to ongoing efforts to improve the interpretability and evaluation of foundation models for temporal data.

preprint2026arXiv

SWAN: World-Aware Adaptive Multimodal Networks for Runtime Variations

Multimodal deep neural networks deployed in realistic environments must contend with runtime variations: changes in modality quality, overall input complexity, and available platform resources. Current networks struggle with such fluctuations -- adaptive networks cannot adhere to a strict compute budget, controller-based networks neglect to consider input complexity, and statically provisioned networks fail at all the above. Consequently, they do not extract maximum utility from the expended computational resources. We present SWAN (Sample and World-Aware Multimodal Network), the first adaptive multimodal network that accomplishes all three goals. SWAN employs a quality-aware controller to assign resources among modalities according to a variable user-specified maximum budget. Within this budget, an adaptive gating module further optimizes efficiency by scaling layer utilization according to sample complexity. For further gains, SWAN also employs a token dropping module that masks semantically irrelevant multimodal features before performing detections. We evaluate SWAN in the domain of autonomous driving with complex multi-object 3D detection, reducing FLOPs by up to 49% with minimal degradation.

preprint2022arXiv

Research Note on Uncertain Probabilities and Abstract Argumentation

The sixth assessment of the international panel on climate change (IPCC) states that "cumulative net CO2 emissions over the last decade (2010-2019) are about the same size as the 11 remaining carbon budget likely to limit warming to 1.5C (medium confidence)." Such reports directly feed the public discourse, but nuances such as the degree of belief and of confidence are often lost. In this paper, we propose a formal account for allowing such degrees of belief and the associated confidence to be used to label arguments in abstract argumentation settings. Differently from other proposals in probabilistic argumentation, we focus on the task of probabilistic inference over a chosen query building upon Sato's distribution semantics which has been already shown to encompass a variety of cases including the semantics of Bayesian networks. Borrowing from the vast literature on such semantics, we examine how such tasks can be dealt with in practice when considering uncertain probabilities, and discuss the connections with existing proposals for probabilistic argumentation.

preprint2022arXiv

SOLBP: Second-Order Loopy Belief Propagation for Inference in Uncertain Bayesian Networks

In second-order uncertain Bayesian networks, the conditional probabilities are only known within distributions, i.e., probabilities over probabilities. The delta-method has been applied to extend exact first-order inference methods to propagate both means and variances through sum-product networks derived from Bayesian networks, thereby characterizing epistemic uncertainty, or the uncertainty in the model itself. Alternatively, second-order belief propagation has been demonstrated for polytrees but not for general directed acyclic graph structures. In this work, we extend Loopy Belief Propagation to the setting of second-order Bayesian networks, giving rise to Second-Order Loopy Belief Propagation (SOLBP). For second-order Bayesian networks, SOLBP generates inferences consistent with those generated by sum-product networks, while being more computationally efficient and scalable.

preprint2022arXiv

Uncertain Bayesian Networks: Learning from Incomplete Data

When the historical data are limited, the conditional probabilities associated with the nodes of Bayesian networks are uncertain and can be empirically estimated. Second order estimation methods provide a framework for both estimating the probabilities and quantifying the uncertainty in these estimates. We refer to these cases as uncer tain or second-order Bayesian networks. When such data are complete, i.e., all variable values are observed for each instantiation, the conditional probabilities are known to be Dirichlet-distributed. This paper improves the current state-of-the-art approaches for handling uncertain Bayesian networks by enabling them to learn distributions for their parameters, i.e., conditional probabilities, with incomplete data. We extensively evaluate various methods to learn the posterior of the parameters through the desired and empirically derived strength of confidence bounds for various queries.

preprint2021arXiv

Handling Epistemic and Aleatory Uncertainties in Probabilistic Circuits

When collaborating with an AI system, we need to assess when to trust its recommendations. If we mistakenly trust it in regions where it is likely to err, catastrophic failures may occur, hence the need for Bayesian approaches for probabilistic reasoning in order to determine the confidence (or epistemic uncertainty) in the probabilities in light of the training data. We propose an approach to overcome the independence assumption behind most of the approaches dealing with a large class of probabilistic reasoning that includes Bayesian networks as well as several instances of probabilistic logic. We provide an algorithm for Bayesian learning from sparse, albeit complete, observations, and for deriving inferences and their confidences keeping track of the dependencies between variables when they are manipulated within the unifying computational formalism provided by probabilistic circuits. Each leaf of such circuits is labelled with a beta-distributed random variable that provides us with an elegant framework for representing uncertain probabilities. We achieve better estimation of epistemic uncertainty than state-of-the-art approaches, including highly engineered ones, while being able to handle general circuits and with just a modest increase in the computational effort compared to using point probabilities.

preprint2016arXiv

Meta-Path Guided Embedding for Similarity Search in Large-Scale Heterogeneous Information Networks

Most real-world data can be modeled as heterogeneous information networks (HINs) consisting of vertices of multiple types and their relationships. Search for similar vertices of the same type in large HINs, such as bibliographic networks and business-review networks, is a fundamental problem with broad applications. Although similarity search in HINs has been studied previously, most existing approaches neither explore rich semantic information embedded in the network structures nor take user's preference as a guidance. In this paper, we re-examine similarity search in HINs and propose a novel embedding-based framework. It models vertices as low-dimensional vectors to explore network structure-embedded similarity. To accommodate user preferences at defining similarity semantics, our proposed framework, ESim, accepts user-defined meta-paths as guidance to learn vertex vectors in a user-preferred embedding space. Moreover, an efficient and parallel sampling-based optimization algorithm has been developed to learn embeddings in large-scale HINs. Extensive experiments on real-world large-scale HINs demonstrate a significant improvement on the effectiveness of ESim over several state-of-the-art algorithms as well as its scalability.

preprint2012arXiv

Measuring Two-Event Structural Correlations on Graphs

Real-life graphs usually have various kinds of events happening on them, e.g., product purchases in online social networks and intrusion alerts in computer networks. The occurrences of events on the same graph could be correlated, exhibiting either attraction or repulsion. Such structural correlations can reveal important relationships between different events. Unfortunately, correlation relationships on graph structures are not well studied and cannot be captured by traditional measures. In this work, we design a novel measure for assessing two-event structural correlations on graphs. Given the occurrences of two events, we choose uniformly a sample of "reference nodes" from the vicinity of all event nodes and employ the Kendall's tau rank correlation measure to compute the average concordance of event density changes. Significance can be efficiently assessed by tau's nice property of being asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis. In order to compute the measure in large scale networks, we develop a scalable framework using different sampling strategies. The complexity of these strategies is analyzed. Experiments on real graph datasets with both synthetic and real events demonstrate that the proposed framework is not only efficacious, but also efficient and scalable.

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