Source author record

Eric Forgoston

Eric Forgoston appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

ResearcherUnclaimed source record

Catalog footprint

What is connected

13works
8topics
4close collaborators

Actions

Connect this record

Log in to claim

Research graph

See the researcher in context

Open full explorer

Inspect adjacent papers, topics, institutions and collaborators without losing the researcher page.

Building this map preview

BZPEER is loading the nearby papers, people, topics and institutions for this page.

Published work

13 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Learned Lagrangian Models of PDEs via Euler-Lagrange Residual Minimization

We present the first method to directly use a learned continuous Lagrangian to forecast the dynamics of systems governed by partial differential equations, exploiting the inherent conservative structure to achieve stable long-range predictions. We develop an optimization-based integrator that minimizes the squared Euler--Lagrange residual via a mesh-free near-symplectic construction on local space-time patches. Different from integrators for analytical models, integrators for learned models should decouple model error (phase error) from integration error (conservation error). By relying on optimization rather than time-stepping, we bypass the global coupling inherent to fixed discretizations, which slows time- and space-stepping and complicates learning. Our method scales linearly with domain size via Jacobi iteration, and places no structural requirements on the learned network, allowing it to be coupled with existing physics-guided machine learning (ML) methods. We validate our approach on a learned representation of a double pendulum, a one-dimensional wave equation, and a two-dimensional wave equation. Our method achieves error comparable to classical symplectic methods while generalizing to spatially varying dynamics and arbitrary boundary conditions without retraining.

preprint2014arXiv

Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations

We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation is used to construct the optimal path to extinction. In addition, a probabilistic argument is used to understand the pre-extinction dynamics and approximate the mean time to extinction. Analytical results agree well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. A control method is implemented to decrease the mean time to extinction. Analytical results quantify the effectiveness of the control and agree well with numerical simulations.

preprint2014arXiv

Inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic sub-populations using synchronization dynamics

A new method is proposed to infer unobserved epidemic sub-populations by exploiting the synchronization properties of multistrain epidemic models. A model for dengue fever is driven by simulated data from secondary infective populations. Primary infective populations in the driven system synchronize to the correct values from the driver system. Most hospital cases of dengue are secondary infections, so this method provides a way to deduce unobserved primary infection levels. We derive center manifold equations that relate the driven system to the driver system and thus motivate the use of synchronization to predict unobserved primary infectives. Synchronization stability between primary and secondary infections is demonstrated through numerical measurements of conditional Lyapunov exponents and through time series simulations.

preprint2013arXiv

Distributed allocation of mobile sensing swarms in gyre flows

We address the synthesis of distributed control policies to enable a swarm of homogeneous mobile sensors to maintain a desired spatial distribution in a geophysical flow environment, or workspace. In this article, we assume the mobile sensors (or robots) have a "map" of the environment denoting the locations of the Lagrangian coherent structures or LCS boundaries. Based on this information, we design agent-level hybrid control policies that leverage the surrounding fluid dynamics and inherent environmental noise to enable the team to maintain a desired distribution in the workspace. We establish the stability properties of the ensemble dynamics of the distributed control policies. Since realistic quasi-geostrophic ocean models predict double-gyre flow solutions, we use a wind-driven multi-gyre flow model to verify the feasibility of the proposed distributed control strategy and compare the proposed control strategy with a baseline deterministic allocation strategy. Lastly, we validate the control strategy using actual flow data obtained by our coherent structure experimental testbed.

preprint2013arXiv

Predicting unobserved exposures from seasonal epidemic data

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the lower dimensional manifold on which the deterministic and stochastic dynamics correctly interact. Our method produces a low dimensional stochastic model that captures the same timing of disease outbreak and the same amplitude and phase of recurrent behavior seen in the high dimensional model. Given seasonal epidemic data consisting of the number of infectious individuals, our method enables a data-based model prediction of the number of unobserved exposed individuals over very long times.

preprint2012arXiv

Coherent Pattern Prediction in Swarms of Delay-Coupled Agents

We consider a general swarm model of self-propelling agents interacting through a pairwise potential in the presence of noise and communication time delay. Previous work [Phys. Rev. E 77, 035203(R) (2008)] has shown that a communication time delay in the swarm induces a pattern bifurcation that depends on the size of the coupling amplitude. We extend these results by completely unfolding the bifurcation structure of the mean field approximation. Our analysis reveals a direct correspondence between the different dynamical behaviors found in different regions of the coupling-time delay plane with the different classes of simulated coherent swarm patterns. We derive the spatio-temporal scales of the swarm structures, and also demonstrate how the complicated interplay of coupling strength, time delay, noise intensity, and choice of initial conditions can affect the swarm. In particular, our studies show that for sufficiently large values of the coupling strength and/or the time delay, there is a noise intensity threshold that forces a transition of the swarm from a misaligned state into an aligned state. We show that this alignment transition exhibits hysteresis when the noise intensity is taken to be time dependent.

preprint2012arXiv

Noise, Bifurcations, and Modeling of Interacting Particle Systems

We consider the stochastic patterns of a system of communicating, or coupled, self-propelled particles in the presence of noise and communication time delay. For sufficiently large environmental noise, there exists a transition between a translating state and a rotating state with stationary center of mass. Time delayed communication creates a bifurcation pattern dependent on the coupling amplitude between particles. Using a mean field model in the large number limit, we show how the complete bifurcation unfolds in the presence of communication delay and coupling amplitude. Relative to the center of mass, the patterns can then be described as transitions between translation, rotation about a stationary point, or a rotating swarm, where the center of mass undergoes a Hopf bifurcation from steady state to a limit cycle. Examples of some of the stochastic patterns will be given for large numbers of particles.

preprint2012arXiv

Robotic Manifold Tracking of Coherent Structures in Flows

Tracking Lagrangian coherent structures in dynamical systems is important for many applications such as oceanography and weather prediction. In this paper, we present a collaborative robotic control strategy designed to track stable and unstable manifolds. The technique does not require global information about the fluid dynamics, and is based on local sensing, prediction, and correction. The collaborative control strategy is implemented on a team of three robots to track coherent structures and manifolds on static flows as well as a noisy time-dependent model of a wind-driven double-gyre often seen in the ocean. We present simulation and experimental results and discuss theoretical guarantees of the collaborative tracking strategy.

preprint2011arXiv

Converging towards the optimal path to extinction

Extinction appears ubiquitously in many fields, including chemical reactions, population biology, evolution, and epidemiology. Even though extinction as a random process is a rare event, its occurrence is observed in large finite populations. Extinction occurs when fluctuations due to random transitions act as an effective force which drives one or more components or species to vanish. Although there are many random paths to an extinct state, there is an optimal path that maximizes the probability to extinction. In this article, we show that the optimal path is associated with the dynamical systems idea of having maximum sensitive dependence to initial conditions. Using the equivalence between the sensitive dependence and the path to extinction, we show that the dynamical systems picture of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path in several stochastic models of epidemics.

preprint2011arXiv

Set-based corral control in stochastic dynamical systems: Making almost invariant sets more invariant

We consider the problem of stochastic prediction and control in a time-dependent stochastic environment, such as the ocean, where escape from an almost invariant region occurs due to random fluctuations. We determine high-probability control-actuation sets by computing regions of uncertainty, almost invariant sets, and Lagrangian Coherent Structures. The combination of geometric and probabilistic methods allows us to design regions of control that provide an increase in loitering time while minimizing the amount of control actuation. We show how the loitering time in almost invariant sets scales exponentially with respect to the control actuation, causing an exponential increase in loitering times with only small changes in actuation force. The result is that the control actuation makes almost invariant sets more invariant.

preprint2010arXiv

Maximal Sensitive Dependence and the Optimal Path to Epidemic Extinction

Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. Although the extinction process is dynamically unstable, it follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. We show that the optimal path is also directly related to the finite-time Lyapunov exponents of the underlying dynamical system in that the optimal path displays maximum sensitivity to initial conditions. We consider several stochastic epidemic models, and examine the extinction process in a dynamical systems framework. Using the dynamics of the finite-time Lyapunov exponents as a constructive tool, we demonstrate that the dynamical systems viewpoint of extinction evolves naturally toward the optimal path.

preprint2009arXiv

Accurate Noise Projection for Reduced Stochastic Epidemic Models

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model. Through the use of a normal form coordinate transform, we are able to analytically derive the stochastic center manifold along with the associated, reduced set of stochastic evolution equations. The transformation correctly projects both the dynamics and the noise onto the center manifold. Therefore, the solution of this reduced stochastic dynamical system yields excellent agreement, both in amplitude and phase, with the solution of the original stochastic system for a temporal scale that is orders of magnitude longer than the typical relaxation time. This new method allows for improved time series prediction of the number of infectious cases when modeling the spread of disease in a population. Numerical solutions of the fluctuations of the SEIR model are considered in the infinite population limit using a Langevin equation approach, as well as in a finite population simulated as a Markov process.

preprint2009arXiv

Escape Rates in a Stochastic Environment with Multiple Scales

We consider a stochastic environment with two time scales and outline a general theory that compares two methods to reduce the dimension of the original system. The first method involves the computation of the underlying deterministic center manifold followed by a naive replacement of the stochastic term. The second method allows one to more accurately describe the stochastic effects and involves the derivation of a normal form coordinate transform that is used to find the stochastic center manifold. The results of both methods are used along with the path integral formalism of large fluctuation theory to predict the escape rate from one basin of attraction to another. The general theory is applied to the example of a surface flow described by a generic, singularly perturbed, damped, nonlinear oscillator with additive, Gaussian noise. We show how both nonlinear reduction methods compare in escape rate scaling. Additionally, the center manifolds are shown to predict high pre-history probability regions of escape. The theoretical results are confirmed using numerical computation of the mean escape time and escape prehistory, and we briefly discuss the extension of the theory to stochastic control.