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Paper detail

Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations

We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation is used to construct the optimal path to extinction. In addition, a probabilistic argument is used to understand the pre-extinction dynamics and approximate the mean time to extinction. Analytical results agree well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. A control method is implemented to decrease the mean time to extinction. Analytical results quantify the effectiveness of the control and agree well with numerical simulations.

preprint2014arXivOpen access
Garrett NiedduLora BillingsEric Forgoston
cond-mat.stat-mechPopulations and Evolution
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Garrett NiedduLora BillingsEric Forgoston

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