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Enrique C. Gabrick

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Biological Physics nlin.CD nlin.CG physics.soc-ph Populations and Evolution

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preprint2026arXiv

Climate and dengue synchronization in southern Brazil: a municipal analysis with cross-state validation

Dengue transmission is rapidly expanding beyond its historical tropical range, raising concerns about how climate change may alter the collective dynamics of epidemics. While most studies focus on transmission risk, much less is known about how climate affects the synchronization of outbreaks. In this work, we investigate dengue synchronization using epidemiological and climate data from 74 municipalities in the state of Paraná (southern Brazil) between 2010 and 2024. We quantify outbreak coherence using the Event Synchronization (ES) method. Our results reveal a transition from a low-transmission regime to a high-transmission regime accompanied by a marked increase in synchronization across cities. We also show that climate anomalies increase the number of permissive days for dengue transmission. Our results suggest that such days are significantly associated with outbreak synchronization. We identify a two-stage climate mechanism: conducive climatic conditions first reduce the probability of asynchronous states and coincide with the emergence of synchronized outbreaks, and subsequently sustain higher synchronization levels. Extending the analysis through comparative analyses in Ceará and Minas Gerais, we uncover that climate consistently amplifies synchronization, although its role in the onset of synchronization depends on regional climatic regimes. These findings highlight climate-driven synchronization as an emerging feature shaping dengue dynamics.

preprint2022arXiv

Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton

In this work, to support decision making of immunisation strategies, we propose the inclusion of two vaccination doses in the SEIR model considering a stochastic cellular automaton. We analyse three different scenarios of vaccination: $i) unlimited doses, (ii) limited doses into susceptible individuals, and (iii) limited doses randomly distributed overall individuals. Our results suggest that the number of vaccinations and time to start the vaccination is more relevant than the vaccine efficacy, delay between the first and second doses, and delay between vaccinated groups. The scenario (i) shows that the solution can converge early to a disease-free equilibrium for a fraction of individuals vaccinated with the first dose. In the scenario (ii), few two vaccination doses divided into a small number of applications reduce the number of infected people more than into many applications. In addition, there is a low waste of doses for the first application and an increase of the waste in the second dose. The scenario (iii) presents an increase in the waste of doses from the first to second applications more than the scenario $(ii)$. In the scenario (iii), the total of wasted doses increases linearly with the number of applications. Furthermore, the number of effective doses in the application of consecutive groups decays exponentially overtime.