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Antonio M. Batista

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Published work

8 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Climate and dengue synchronization in southern Brazil: a municipal analysis with cross-state validation

Dengue transmission is rapidly expanding beyond its historical tropical range, raising concerns about how climate change may alter the collective dynamics of epidemics. While most studies focus on transmission risk, much less is known about how climate affects the synchronization of outbreaks. In this work, we investigate dengue synchronization using epidemiological and climate data from 74 municipalities in the state of Paraná (southern Brazil) between 2010 and 2024. We quantify outbreak coherence using the Event Synchronization (ES) method. Our results reveal a transition from a low-transmission regime to a high-transmission regime accompanied by a marked increase in synchronization across cities. We also show that climate anomalies increase the number of permissive days for dengue transmission. Our results suggest that such days are significantly associated with outbreak synchronization. We identify a two-stage climate mechanism: conducive climatic conditions first reduce the probability of asynchronous states and coincide with the emergence of synchronized outbreaks, and subsequently sustain higher synchronization levels. Extending the analysis through comparative analyses in Ceará and Minas Gerais, we uncover that climate consistently amplifies synchronization, although its role in the onset of synchronization depends on regional climatic regimes. These findings highlight climate-driven synchronization as an emerging feature shaping dengue dynamics.

preprint2022arXiv

Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton

In this work, to support decision making of immunisation strategies, we propose the inclusion of two vaccination doses in the SEIR model considering a stochastic cellular automaton. We analyse three different scenarios of vaccination: $i) unlimited doses, (ii) limited doses into susceptible individuals, and (iii) limited doses randomly distributed overall individuals. Our results suggest that the number of vaccinations and time to start the vaccination is more relevant than the vaccine efficacy, delay between the first and second doses, and delay between vaccinated groups. The scenario (i) shows that the solution can converge early to a disease-free equilibrium for a fraction of individuals vaccinated with the first dose. In the scenario (ii), few two vaccination doses divided into a small number of applications reduce the number of infected people more than into many applications. In addition, there is a low waste of doses for the first application and an increase of the waste in the second dose. The scenario (iii) presents an increase in the waste of doses from the first to second applications more than the scenario $(ii)$. In the scenario (iii), the total of wasted doses increases linearly with the number of applications. Furthermore, the number of effective doses in the application of consecutive groups decays exponentially overtime.

preprint2019arXiv

Network properties of healthy and Alzheimer's brains

Small-world structures are often used to describe structural connections in the brain. In this work, we compare the structural connection of cortical areas of a healthy brain and a brain affected by Alzheimer's disease with artificial small-world networks. Based on statistics analysis, we demonstrate that similar small-world networks can be constructed using Newman-Watts procedure. The network quantifiers of both structural matrices are identified inside the probabilistic valley. Despite of similarities between structural connection matrices and sampled small-world networks, increased assortativity can be found in the Alzheimer brain. Our results indicate that network quantifiers can be helpful to identify abnormalities in real structural connection matrices.

preprint2016arXiv

Suppression of neuronal phase synchronisation in cat cerebral cortex

We have studied effects of perturbations on the cat cerebral cortex. According to the literature, this cortex structure can be described by a clustered network. This way, we construct a clustered network with the same number of areas as in the cat matrix, where each area is described as a sub-network with small-world property. We focus on the suppression of neuronal phase synchronisation considering different kinds of perturbations. Among the various controlling interventions, we choose three methods: delayed feedback control, external time-periodic driving, and activation of selected neurons. We simulate these interventions to provide a procedure to suppress undesired and pathological abnormal rhythms that can be associated with many forms of synchronisation. In our simulations, we have verified that the efficiency of synchronisation suppression by delayed feedback control is higher than external time-periodic driving and activation of selected neurons for the cat cerebral cortex with the same coupling strengths.

preprint2015arXiv

Effect of a Dissipative Term in the Drift Waves Hamiltonian System

This paper analyses the Hamiltonian model of drift waves which describes the chaotic transport of particles in the plasma confinement. With one drift wave the system is integrable and it presents stable orbits. When one wave is added the system may or may not be integrable depending on the phase of each wave velocity. If the two waves have the same phase velocity, the system is integrable. When the phase velocities between the two waves are different, the system shows chaotic behaviour. In this model we add a small dissipation. In the presence of a weak dissipation, for different initial conditions, we observe transient orbits which converge to periodic attractors.

preprint2015arXiv

Network induces burst synchronisation in cat brain

The brain of mammals are divided into different cortical areas that are anatomically connected forming larger networks which perform cognitive tasks. The cat cerebral cortex is composed of 65 areas organised into the visual, auditory, somatosensory-motor and frontolimbic cognitive regions. We have built a network of networks, in which networks are connected among themselves according to the connections observed in the cat cortical areas aiming to study how inputs drive the synchronous behaviour in this cat brain-like network. We show that without external perturbations it is possible to observe high level of bursting synchronisation between neurons within almost all areas, except for the auditory area. Bursting synchronisation appears between neurons in the auditory region when an external perturbation is applied in another cognitive area. This is a clear evidence that pattern formation and collective behaviour in the brain might be a process mediated by other brain areas under stimulation.

preprint2015arXiv

Spikes Synchronization in Neural Networks with Synaptic Plasticity

In this paper, we investigated the neural spikes synchronisation in a neural network with synaptic plasticity and external perturbation. In the simulations the neural dynamics is described by the Hodgkin Huxley model considering chemical synapses (excitatory) among neurons. According to neural spikes synchronisation is expected that a perturbation produce non synchronised regimes. However, in the literature there are works showing that the combination of synaptic plasticity and external perturbation may generate synchronised regime. This article describes the effect of the synaptic plasticity on the synchronisation, where we consider a perturbation with a uniform distribution. This study is relevant to researches of neural disorders control.

preprint2005arXiv

Some aspects of the synchronization in coupled maps

Through numerical simulations we analyze the synchronization time and the Lyapunov dimension of a coupled map lattice consisting of a chain of chaotic logistic maps exhibiting power law interactions. From the observed behaviors we find a lower bound for the size $N$ of the lattice, independent of the range and strength of the interaction, which imposes a practical lower bound in numerical simulations for the system to be considered in the thermodynamic limit. We also observe the existence of a strong correlation between the averaged synchronization time and the Lyapunov dimension. This is an interesting result because it allows an analytical estimation of the synchronization time, which otherwise requires numerical simulations.