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Researcher profile

Iberê L. Caldas

Iberê L. Caldas contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
nlin.CDBiological Physicsmath.DSphysics.comp-phcond-mat.stat-mechnlin.AOnlin.CGphysics.soc-phPopulations and Evolution

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Published work

7 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Climate and dengue synchronization in southern Brazil: a municipal analysis with cross-state validation

Dengue transmission is rapidly expanding beyond its historical tropical range, raising concerns about how climate change may alter the collective dynamics of epidemics. While most studies focus on transmission risk, much less is known about how climate affects the synchronization of outbreaks. In this work, we investigate dengue synchronization using epidemiological and climate data from 74 municipalities in the state of Paraná (southern Brazil) between 2010 and 2024. We quantify outbreak coherence using the Event Synchronization (ES) method. Our results reveal a transition from a low-transmission regime to a high-transmission regime accompanied by a marked increase in synchronization across cities. We also show that climate anomalies increase the number of permissive days for dengue transmission. Our results suggest that such days are significantly associated with outbreak synchronization. We identify a two-stage climate mechanism: conducive climatic conditions first reduce the probability of asynchronous states and coincide with the emergence of synchronized outbreaks, and subsequently sustain higher synchronization levels. Extending the analysis through comparative analyses in Ceará and Minas Gerais, we uncover that climate consistently amplifies synchronization, although its role in the onset of synchronization depends on regional climatic regimes. These findings highlight climate-driven synchronization as an emerging feature shaping dengue dynamics.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Bidimensional Symplectic Maps

Symplectic maps can provide a straightforward and accurate way to visualize and quantify the dynamics of conservative systems with two degrees of freedom. These maps can be easily iterated from the simplest computers to obtain trajectories with great accuracy. Their usage arises in many fields, including celeste mechanics, plasma physics, chemistry, and so on. In this paper we introduce two examples of symplectic maps, the standard and the standard non-twist map, exploring the phase space transformation as their control parameters are varied.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Diffusion transitions in a 2D periodic lattice

Spatial diffusion of particles in periodic potential models has provided a good framework for studying the role of chaos in global properties of classical systems. Here a bidimensional "soft" billiard, classically modeled from an optical lattice hamiltonian system, is used to study diffusion transitions with the control parameters variation. Sudden transitions between normal and ballistic regimes are found and characterized by inspection of the topological changes in phase-space. Transitions correlated with increases in global stability area are shown to occur for energy levels where local maxima points become accessible, deviating trajectories approaching it. These instabilities promote a slowing down of the dynamics and an island myriad bifurcation phenomenon, along with the suppression of long flights within the lattice. Other diffusion regime variations occurring during small intervals of control parameters are shown to be related to the emergence of a set of orbits with long flights, thus altering the total average displacement for long integration times but without global changes in phase-space.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton

In this work, to support decision making of immunisation strategies, we propose the inclusion of two vaccination doses in the SEIR model considering a stochastic cellular automaton. We analyse three different scenarios of vaccination: $i) unlimited doses, (ii) limited doses into susceptible individuals, and (iii) limited doses randomly distributed overall individuals. Our results suggest that the number of vaccinations and time to start the vaccination is more relevant than the vaccine efficacy, delay between the first and second doses, and delay between vaccinated groups. The scenario (i) shows that the solution can converge early to a disease-free equilibrium for a fraction of individuals vaccinated with the first dose. In the scenario (ii), few two vaccination doses divided into a small number of applications reduce the number of infected people more than into many applications. In addition, there is a low waste of doses for the first application and an increase of the waste in the second dose. The scenario (iii) presents an increase in the waste of doses from the first to second applications more than the scenario $(ii)$. In the scenario (iii), the total of wasted doses increases linearly with the number of applications. Furthermore, the number of effective doses in the application of consecutive groups decays exponentially overtime.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Dynamical trapping in the area-preserving Hénon map

Stickiness is a well known phenomenon in which chaotic orbits expend an expressive amount of time in specific regions of the chaotic sea. This phenomenon becomes important when dealing with area-preserving open systems because, in this case, it leads to a temporary trapping of orbits in certain regions of phase space. In this work, we propose that the different scenarios of dynamical trapping can be explained by analyzing the crossings between invariant manifolds. In order to corroborate this assertion, we use an adaptive refinement procedure to approximately obtain the sets of homoclinic and heteroclinic intersections for the area-preserving Hénon map, an archetype of open systems, for a generic parameter interval. We show that these sets have very different statistical properties when the system is highly influenced by dynamical trapping, whereas they present similar properties when stickiness is almost absent. We explain these different scenarios by taking into consideration various effects that occur simultaneously in the system, all of which are connected with the topology of the invariant manifolds.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Measure, dimension, and complexity of the transient motion in Hamiltonian systems

Hamiltonian systems that are either open, leaking, or contain holes in the phase space possess solutions that eventually escape the system's domain. The motion described by such escape orbits before crossing the escape threshold can be understood as a transient behavior. In this work, we introduce a numerical method to visually illustrate and quantify the transient motion in Hamiltonian systems based on the transient measure, a finite-time version of the natural measure. We apply this method to two physical systems: the single-null divertor tokamak, described by a symplectic map; and the Earth-Moon system, as modeled by the planar circular restricted three-body problem. Our results portray how different locations for the ensemble of initial conditions may lead to different transient dynamical scenarios in both systems. We show that these scenarios can be properly quantified from a geometrical aspect, the transient correlation dimension, and a dynamical aspect, the transient complexity coefficient.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Synchronization and attractors in a model simulating social jetlag

Much work has been done to investigate social jetlag, a misalignment between the biological clock and the social agenda caused by exposition to different light inputs, that causes several health issues. To investigate synchronization and attractors due to a sequence of light inputs, we introduce an extension of a model, previously used to describe jetlag caused by a single change in the light input. The synchronization to the light input is sensitive to the control parameters of the system and to the light input periods. Depending on the parameter set, the observed synchronization is with one or another successive light input. Most of the solutions have the period of a light input. However, for some parameters, we also observed higher period, chaotic solutions, and bistability.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access