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Published work
This note shows that no self-attention layer post-processed by a rational function can sign-represent the parity function unless the product of the number of heads and the degree of the post-processing function grows linearly with the input length. Combining this lower bound with rational approximation of ReLU networks yields a margin-dependent extension for self-attention layers post-processed by ReLU networks.
The synthetic control (SC) framework is widely used for observational causal inference with time-series panel data. SC has been successful in diverse applications, but existing methods typically treat the ordering of pre-intervention time indices interchangeable. This invariance means they may not fully take advantage of temporal structure when strong trends are present. We propose Time-Aware Synthetic Control (TASC), which employs a state-space model with a constant trend while preserving a low-rank structure of the signal. TASC uses the Kalman filter and Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother: it first fits a generative time-series model with expectation-maximization and then performs counterfactual inference. We evaluate TASC on both simulated and real-world datasets, including policy evaluation and sports prediction. Our results suggest that TASC offers advantages in settings with strong temporal trends and high levels of observation noise.
In this paper, we use variational recurrent neural network to investigate the anomaly detection problem on graph time series. The temporal correlation is modeled by the combination of recurrent neural network (RNN) and variational inference (VI), while the spatial information is captured by the graph convolutional network. In order to incorporate external factors, we use feature extractor to augment the transition of latent variables, which can learn the influence of external factors. With the target function as accumulative ELBO, it is easy to extend this model to on-line method. The experimental study on traffic flow data shows the detection capability of the proposed method.
We introduce a tensor-based model of shared representation for meta-learning from a diverse set of tasks. Prior works on learning linear representations for meta-learning assume that there is a common shared representation across different tasks, and do not consider the additional task-specific observable side information. In this work, we model the meta-parameter through an order-$3$ tensor, which can adapt to the observed task features of the task. We propose two methods to estimate the underlying tensor. The first method solves a tensor regression problem and works under natural assumptions on the data generating process. The second method uses the method of moments under additional distributional assumptions and has an improved sample complexity in terms of the number of tasks. We also focus on the meta-test phase, and consider estimating task-specific parameters on a new task. Substituting the estimated tensor from the first step allows us estimating the task-specific parameters with very few samples of the new task, thereby showing the benefits of learning tensor representations for meta-learning. Finally, through simulation and several real-world datasets, we evaluate our methods and show that it improves over previous linear models of shared representations for meta-learning.
The vast majority of work in self-supervised learning, both theoretical and empirical (though mostly the latter), have largely focused on recovering good features for downstream tasks, with the definition of "good" often being intricately tied to the downstream task itself. This lens is undoubtedly very interesting, but suffers from the problem that there isn't a "canonical" set of downstream tasks to focus on -- in practice, this problem is usually resolved by competing on the benchmark dataset du jour. In this paper, we present an alternative lens: one of parameter identifiability. More precisely, we consider data coming from a parametric probabilistic model, and train a self-supervised learning predictor with a suitably chosen parametric form. Then, we ask whether we can read off the ground truth parameters of the probabilistic model from the optimal predictor. We focus on the widely used self-supervised learning method of predicting masked tokens, which is popular for both natural languages and visual data. While incarnations of this approach have already been successfully used for simpler probabilistic models (e.g. learning fully-observed undirected graphical models), we focus instead on latent-variable models capturing sequential structures -- namely Hidden Markov Models with both discrete and conditionally Gaussian observations. We show that there is a rich landscape of possibilities, out of which some prediction tasks yield identifiability, while others do not. Our results, borne of a theoretical grounding of self-supervised learning, could thus potentially beneficially inform practice. Moreover, we uncover close connections with uniqueness of tensor rank decompositions -- a widely used tool in studying identifiability through the lens of the method of moments.
We consider the well-studied problem of learning intersections of halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution in the challenging \emph{agnostic learning} model. Recent work of Diakonikolas et al. (2021) shows that any Statistical Query (SQ) algorithm for agnostically learning the class of intersections of $k$ halfspaces over $\mathbb{R}^n$ to constant excess error either must make queries of tolerance at most $n^{-\tildeΩ(\sqrt{\log k})}$ or must make $2^{n^{Ω(1)}}$ queries. We strengthen this result by improving the tolerance requirement to $n^{-\tildeΩ(\log k)}$. This lower bound is essentially best possible since an SQ algorithm of Klivans et al. (2008) agnostically learns this class to any constant excess error using $n^{O(\log k)}$ queries of tolerance $n^{-O(\log k)}$. We prove two variants of our lower bound, each of which combines ingredients from Diakonikolas et al. (2021) with (an extension of) a different earlier approach for agnostic SQ lower bounds for the Boolean setting due to Dachman-Soled et al. (2014). Our approach also yields lower bounds for agnostically SQ learning the class of "convex subspace juntas" (studied by Vempala, 2010) and the class of sets with bounded Gaussian surface area; all of these lower bounds are nearly optimal since they essentially match known upper bounds from Klivans et al. (2008).
In linear regression we wish to estimate the optimum linear least squares predictor for a distribution over $d$-dimensional input points and real-valued responses, based on a small sample. Under standard random design analysis, where the sample is drawn i.i.d. from the input distribution, the least squares solution for that sample can be viewed as the natural estimator of the optimum. Unfortunately, this estimator almost always incurs an undesirable bias coming from the randomness of the input points, which is a significant bottleneck in model averaging. In this paper we show that it is possible to draw a non-i.i.d. sample of input points such that, regardless of the response model, the least squares solution is an unbiased estimator of the optimum. Moreover, this sample can be produced efficiently by augmenting a previously drawn i.i.d. sample with an additional set of $d$ points, drawn jointly according to a certain determinantal point process constructed from the input distribution rescaled by the squared volume spanned by the points. Motivated by this, we develop a theoretical framework for studying volume-rescaled sampling, and in the process prove a number of new matrix expectation identities. We use them to show that for any input distribution and $ε>0$ there is a random design consisting of $O(d\log d+ d/ε)$ points from which an unbiased estimator can be constructed whose expected square loss over the entire distribution is bounded by $1+ε$ times the loss of the optimum. We provide efficient algorithms for generating such unbiased estimators in a number of practical settings and support our claims experimentally.
Risk estimation is at the core of many learning systems. The importance of this problem has motivated researchers to propose different schemes, such as cross validation, generalized cross validation, and Bootstrap. The theoretical properties of such estimates have been extensively studied in the low-dimensional settings, where the number of predictors $p$ is much smaller than the number of observations $n$. However, a unifying methodology accompanied with a rigorous theory is lacking in high-dimensional settings. This paper studies the problem of risk estimation under the moderately high-dimensional asymptotic setting $n,p \rightarrow \infty$ and $n/p \rightarrow δ>1$ ($δ$ is a fixed number), and proves the consistency of three risk estimates that have been successful in numerical studies, i.e., leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV), approximate leave-one-out (ALO), and approximate message passing (AMP)-based techniques. A corner stone of our analysis is a bound that we obtain on the discrepancy of the `residuals' obtained from AMP and LOOCV. This connection not only enables us to obtain a more refined information on the estimates of AMP, ALO, and LOOCV, but also offers an upper bound on the convergence rate of each estimate.
In the Tensor PCA problem introduced by Richard and Montanari (2014), one is given a dataset consisting of $n$ samples $\mathbf{T}_{1:n}$ of i.i.d. Gaussian tensors of order $k$ with the promise that $\mathbb{E}\mathbf{T}_1$ is a rank-1 tensor and $\|\mathbb{E} \mathbf{T}_1\| = 1$. The goal is to estimate $\mathbb{E} \mathbf{T}_1$. This problem exhibits a large conjectured hard phase when $k>2$: When $d \lesssim n \ll d^{\frac{k}{2}}$ it is information theoretically possible to estimate $\mathbb{E} \mathbf{T}_1$, but no polynomial time estimator is known. We provide a sharp analysis of the optimal sample complexity in the Statistical Query (SQ) model and show that SQ algorithms with polynomial query complexity not only fail to solve Tensor PCA in the conjectured hard phase, but also have a strictly sub-optimal sample complexity compared to some polynomial time estimators such as the Richard-Montanari spectral estimator. Our analysis reveals that the optimal sample complexity in the SQ model depends on whether $\mathbb{E} \mathbf{T}_1$ is symmetric or not. For symmetric, even order tensors, we also isolate a sample size regime in which it is possible to test if $\mathbb{E} \mathbf{T}_1 = \mathbf{0}$ or $\mathbb{E}\mathbf{T}_1 \neq \mathbf{0}$ with polynomially many queries but not estimate $\mathbb{E}\mathbf{T}_1$. Our proofs rely on the Fourier analytic approach of Feldman, Perkins and Vempala (2018) to prove sharp SQ lower bounds.
We propose a new randomized ensemble technique with a provable security guarantee against black-box transfer attacks. Our proof constructs a new security problem for random binary classifiers which is easier to empirically verify and a reduction from the security of this new model to the security of the ensemble classifier. We provide experimental evidence of the security of our random binary classifiers, as well as empirical results of the adversarial accuracy of the overall ensemble to black-box attacks. Our construction crucially leverages hidden randomness in the multiclass-to-binary reduction.
Contrastive learning is an approach to representation learning that utilizes naturally occurring similar and dissimilar pairs of data points to find useful embeddings of data. In the context of document classification under topic modeling assumptions, we prove that contrastive learning is capable of recovering a representation of documents that reveals their underlying topic posterior information to linear models. We apply this procedure in a semi-supervised setup and demonstrate empirically that linear classifiers with these representations perform well in document classification tasks with very few training examples.
We introduce interactive structure discovery, a generic framework that encompasses many interactive learning settings, including active learning, top-k item identification, interactive drug discovery, and others. We adapt a recently developed active learning algorithm of Tosh and Dasgupta (2017) for interactive structure discovery, and show that the new algorithm can be made noise-tolerant and enjoys favorable query complexity bounds.
We seek to align agent policy with human expert behavior in a reinforcement learning (RL) setting, without any prior knowledge about dynamics, reward function, and unsafe states. There is a human expert knowing the rewards and unsafe states based on his preference and objective, but querying that human expert is expensive. To address this challenge, we propose a new framework for imitation learning (IL) algorithm that actively and interactively learns a model of the user's reward function with efficient queries. We build an adversarial generative model of states and a successor feature (SR) model trained over transition experience collected by learning policy. Our method uses these models to select state-action pairs, asking the user to comment on the optimality or safety, and trains a adversarial neural network to predict the rewards. Different from previous papers, which are almost all based on uncertainty sampling, the key idea is to actively and efficiently select state-action pairs from both on-policy and off-policy experience, by discriminating the queried (expert) and unqueried (generated) data and maximizing the efficiency of value function learning. We call this method adversarial reward query with successor representation. We evaluate the proposed method with simulated human on a state-based 2D navigation task, robotic control tasks and the image-based video games, which have high-dimensional observation and complex state dynamics. The results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms uncertainty-based methods on learning reward models, achieving better query efficiency, where the adversarial discriminator can make the agent learn human behavior more efficiently and the SR can select states which have stronger impact on value function. Moreover, the proposed method can also learn to avoid unsafe states when training the reward model.
Breakthroughs in machine learning are rapidly changing science and society, yet our fundamental understanding of this technology has lagged far behind. Indeed, one of the central tenets of the field, the bias-variance trade-off, appears to be at odds with the observed behavior of methods used in the modern machine learning practice. The bias-variance trade-off implies that a model should balance under-fitting and over-fitting: rich enough to express underlying structure in data, simple enough to avoid fitting spurious patterns. However, in the modern practice, very rich models such as neural networks are trained to exactly fit (i.e., interpolate) the data. Classically, such models would be considered over-fit, and yet they often obtain high accuracy on test data. This apparent contradiction has raised questions about the mathematical foundations of machine learning and their relevance to practitioners. In this paper, we reconcile the classical understanding and the modern practice within a unified performance curve. This "double descent" curve subsumes the textbook U-shaped bias-variance trade-off curve by showing how increasing model capacity beyond the point of interpolation results in improved performance. We provide evidence for the existence and ubiquity of double descent for a wide spectrum of models and datasets, and we posit a mechanism for its emergence. This connection between the performance and the structure of machine learning models delineates the limits of classical analyses, and has implications for both the theory and practice of machine learning.