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Inferring Individual Level Causal Models from Graph-based Relational Time Series

In this work, we formalize the problem of causal inference over graph-based relational time-series data where each node in the graph has one or more time-series associated to it. We propose causal inference models for this problem that leverage both the graph topology and time-series to accurately estimate local causal effects of nodes. Furthermore, the relational time-series causal inference models are able to estimate local effects for individual nodes by exploiting local node-centric temporal dependencies and topological/structural dependencies. We show that simpler causal models that do not consider the graph topology are recovered as special cases of the proposed relational time-series causal inference model. We describe the conditions under which the resulting estimate can be used to estimate a causal effect, and describe how the Durbin-Wu-Hausman test of specification can be used to test for the consistency of the proposed estimator from data. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the causal inference models on both synthetic data with known ground-truth and a large-scale observational relational time-series data set collected from Wikipedia.