Paper detail

Gaussian Process Regression with Location Errors

In this paper, we investigate Gaussian process regression models where inputs are subject to measurement error. In spatial statistics, input measurement errors occur when the geographical locations of observed data are not known exactly. Such sources of error are not special cases of "nugget" or microscale variation, and require alternative methods for both interpolation and parameter estimation. Gaussian process models do not straightforwardly extend to incorporate input measurement error, and simply ignoring noise in the input space can lead to poor performance for both prediction and parameter inference. We review and extend existing theory on prediction and estimation in the presence of location errors, and show that ignoring location errors may lead to Kriging that is not "self-efficient". We also introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach using the Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm that obtains optimal (minimum MSE) predictions, and discuss situations that lead to multimodality of the target distribution and/or poor chain mixing. Through simulation study and analysis of global air temperature data, we show that appropriate methods for incorporating location measurement error are essential to valid inference in this regime.