A train track directed random walk on $Out(F_r)$

Several known results, by Rivin, Calegari-Maher and Sisto, show that an element $ϕ_n\in Out(F_r)$, obtained after $n$ steps of a simple random walk on $Out(F_r)$, is fully irreducible with probability tending to 1 as $n\to\infty$. In this paper we construct a natural "train-track directed" random walk $\mathcal W$ on $Out(F_r)$ (where $r\ge 3$). We show that, for the element $ϕ_n\in Out(F_r)$, obtained after $n$ steps of this random walk, with asymptotically positive probability the element $ϕ_n$ has the following properties: $ϕ_n$ is an ageometric fully irreducible, which admits a train-track representative with no periodic Nielsen paths and exactly one nondegenerate illegal turn, that $ϕ_n$ has "rotationless index" $\frac{3}{2}-r$ (so that the geometric index of the attracting tree $T_{ϕ_n}$ of $ϕ_n$ is $2r-3$), has index list $\{\frac{3}{2}-r\}$ and the ideal Whitehead graph being the complete graph on $2r-1$ vertices, and that the axis bundle of $ϕ_n$ in the Outer space $CV_r$ consists of a single axis.

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