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Yuxuan Liang

Yuxuan Liang contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

18 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Advanced Long-term Earth System Forecasting

Reliable long-term forecasting of Earth system dynamics is fundamentally limited by instabilities in current artificial intelligence (AI) models during extended autoregressive simulations. These failures often originate from inherent spectral bias, leading to inadequate representation of critical high-frequency, small-scale processes and subsequent uncontrolled error amplification. Inspired by the nested grids in numerical models used to resolve small scales, we present TritonCast. At the core of its design is a dedicated latent dynamical core, which ensures the long-term stability of the macro-evolution at a coarse scale. An outer structure then fuses this stable trend with fine-grained local details. This design effectively mitigates the spectral bias caused by cross-scale interactions. In atmospheric science, it achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on the WeatherBench 2 benchmark while demonstrating exceptional long-term stability: executing year-long autoregressive global forecasts and completing multi-year climate simulations that span the entire available $2500$-day test period without drift. In oceanography, it extends skillful eddy forecast to $120$ days and exhibits unprecedented zero-shot cross-resolution generalization. Ablation studies reveal that this performance stems from the synergistic interplay of the architecture's core components. TritonCast thus offers a promising pathway towards a new generation of trustworthy, AI-driven simulations. This significant advance has the potential to accelerate discovery in climate and Earth system science, enabling more reliable long-term forecasting and deeper insights into complex geophysical dynamics.

preprint2026arXiv

Coordinated Pandemic Control with Large Language Model Agents as Policymaking Assistants

Effective pandemic control requires timely and coordinated policymaking across administrative regions that are intrinsically interdependent. However, human-driven responses are often fragmented and reactive, with policies formulated in isolation and adjusted only after outbreaks escalate, undermining proactive intervention and global pandemic mitigation. To address this challenge, here we propose a large language model (LLM) multi-agent policymaking framework that supports coordinated and proactive pandemic control across regions. Within our framework, each administrative region is assigned an LLM agent as an AI policymaking assistant. The agent reasons over region-specific epidemiological dynamics while communicating with other agents to account for cross-regional interdependencies. By integrating real-world data, a pandemic evolution simulator, and structured inter-agent communication, our framework enables agents to jointly explore counterfactual intervention scenarios and synthesize coordinated policy decisions through a closed-loop simulation process. We validate the proposed framework using state-level COVID-19 data from the United States between April and December 2020, together with real-world mobility records and observed policy interventions. Compared with real-world pandemic outcomes, our approach reduces cumulative infections and deaths by up to 63.7% and 40.1%, respectively, at the individual state level, and by 39.0% and 27.0%, respectively, when aggregated across states. These results demonstrate that LLM multi-agent systems can enable more effective pandemic control with coordinated policymaking...

preprint2026arXiv

FaST: Efficient and Effective Long-Horizon Forecasting for Large-Scale Spatial-Temporal Graphs via Mixture-of-Experts

Spatial-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting on large-scale networks has garnered significant attention. However, existing models predominantly focus on short-horizon predictions and suffer from notorious computational costs and memory consumption when scaling to long-horizon predictions and large graphs. Targeting the above challenges, we present FaST, an effective and efficient framework based on heterogeneity-aware Mixture-of-Experts (MoEs) for long-horizon and large-scale STG forecasting, which unlocks one-week-ahead (672 steps at a 15-minute granularity) prediction with thousands of nodes. FaST is underpinned by two key innovations. First, an adaptive graph agent attention mechanism is proposed to alleviate the computational burden inherent in conventional graph convolution and self-attention modules when applied to large-scale graphs. Second, we propose a new parallel MoE module that replaces traditional feed-forward networks with Gated Linear Units (GLUs), enabling an efficient and scalable parallel structure. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that FaST not only delivers superior long-horizon predictive accuracy but also achieves remarkable computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Our source code is available at: https://github.com/yijizhao/FaST.

preprint2026arXiv

Learning to Factorize and Adapt: A Versatile Approach Toward Universal Spatio-Temporal Foundation Models

Spatio-Temporal (ST) Foundation Models (STFMs) promise cross-dataset generalization, yet joint ST pretraining is computationally expensive and grapples with the heterogeneity of domain-specific spatial patterns. Substantially extending our preliminary conference version, we present FactoST-v2, an enhanced factorized framework redesigned for full weight transfer and arbitrary-length generalization. FactoST-v2 decouples universal temporal learning from domain-specific spatial adaptation. The first stage pretrains a minimalist encoder-only backbone using randomized sequence masking to capture invariant temporal dynamics, enabling probabilistic quantile prediction across variable horizons. The second stage employs a streamlined adapter to rapidly inject spatial awareness via meta adaptive learning and prompting. Comprehensive evaluations across diverse domains demonstrate that FactoST-v2 achieves state-of-the-art accuracy with linear efficiency - significantly outperforming existing foundation models in zero-shot and few-shot scenarios while rivaling domain-specific expert baselines. This factorized paradigm offers a practical, scalable path toward truly universal STFMs. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/FactoST.

preprint2026arXiv

Perceive, Route and Modulate: Dynamic Pattern Recalibration for Time Series Forecasting

Local temporal patterns in real-world time series continuously shift, rendering globally shared transformations suboptimal. Current deep forecasting models, despite their scale and complexity, rely on fixed weight matrices applied uniformly to all temporal tokens. This creates a static pattern response: models settle into a compromised average, unable to adapt to changing local dynamics. We introduce Dynamic Pattern Recalibration (DPR), a backbone-agnostic mechanism that resolves this via token-level recalibration. Through a lightweight "Perceive-Route-Modulate" pipeline, DPR computes a soft-routing distribution over a learned basis of adaptive response patterns, generating a time-aware modulation vector that recalibrates hidden states via a residual Hadamard product. As a backbone-agnostic adapter, DPR enhances forecasting across diverse architectures with minimal overhead, confirming it addresses a general bottleneck. As a minimalist standalone model, DPRNet achieves competitive performance across 12 benchmarks, validating dynamic recalibration against macroscopic parameter scaling.

preprint2026arXiv

PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Coupled spatiotemporal forecasting is important for predicting the future evolution of multiple interacting dynamical systems, such as in climate models. However, existing methods are severely constrained by the persistent bottleneck of compounding errors. In coupled systems, errors from each subsystem simulator propagate and amplify one another, a phenomenon we term Reciprocal Error Amplification, leading to a rapid collapse of long-range predictions. To address this challenge, we propose a universal framework called PnP-Corrector (Plug-and-Play Corrector). The core idea of our framework is to decouple the physical simulation from the error correction process: it freezes pre-trained physics simulation engines and exclusively trains a correction agent to proactively counteract the systematic biases emerging from the coupled system. Furthermore, we design an efficient predictive model architecture, DSLCast, to serve as the backbone of this framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the long-term stability and accuracy of coupled forecasting systems. For instance, in the challenging task of a 300-day global ocean-atmosphere coupled forecast, our PnP-Corrector framework reduces the prediction error of the baseline model by 29% and surpasses state-of-the-art models on several key metrics.

preprint2026arXiv

Rationale-Grounded In-Context Learning for Time Series Reasoning with Multimodal Large Language Models

The underperformance of existing multimodal large language models for time series reasoning lies in the absence of rationale priors that connect temporal observations to their downstream outcomes, which leads models to rely on superficial pattern matching rather than principled reasoning. We therefore propose the rationale-grounded in-context learning for time series reasoning, where rationales work as guiding reasoning units rather than post-hoc explanations, and develop the RationaleTS method. Specifically, we firstly induce label-conditioned rationales, composed of reasoning paths from observable evidence to the potential outcomes. Then, we design the hybrid retrieval by balancing temporal patterns and semantic contexts to retrieve correlated rationale priors for the final in-context inference on new samples. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed RationaleTS on three-domain time series reasoning tasks. We will release our code for reproduction.

preprint2025arXiv

RAST: A Retrieval Augmented Spatio-Temporal Framework for Traffic Prediction

Traffic prediction is a cornerstone of modern intelligent transportation systems and a critical task in spatio-temporal forecasting. Although advanced Spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) and pre-trained models have achieved significant progress in traffic prediction, two key challenges remain: (i) limited contextual capacity when modeling complex spatio-temporal dependencies, and (ii) low predictability at fine-grained spatio-temporal points due to heterogeneous patterns. Inspired by Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), we propose RAST, a universal framework that integrates retrieval-augmented mechanisms with spatio-temporal modeling to address these challenges. Our framework consists of three key designs: 1) Decoupled Encoder and Query Generator to capture decoupled spatial and temporal features and construct a fusion query via residual fusion; 2) Spatio-temporal Retrieval Store and Retrievers to maintain and retrieve vectorized fine-grained patterns; and 3) Universal Backbone Predictor that flexibly accommodates pre-trained STGNNs or simple MLP predictors. Extensive experiments on six real-world traffic networks, including large-scale datasets, demonstrate that RAST achieves superior performance while maintaining computational efficiency.

preprint2023arXiv

MSGNet: Learning Multi-Scale Inter-Series Correlations for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Multivariate time series forecasting poses an ongoing challenge across various disciplines. Time series data often exhibit diverse intra-series and inter-series correlations, contributing to intricate and interwoven dependencies that have been the focus of numerous studies. Nevertheless, a significant research gap remains in comprehending the varying inter-series correlations across different time scales among multiple time series, an area that has received limited attention in the literature. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces MSGNet, an advanced deep learning model designed to capture the varying inter-series correlations across multiple time scales using frequency domain analysis and adaptive graph convolution. By leveraging frequency domain analysis, MSGNet effectively extracts salient periodic patterns and decomposes the time series into distinct time scales. The model incorporates a self-attention mechanism to capture intra-series dependencies, while introducing an adaptive mixhop graph convolution layer to autonomously learn diverse inter-series correlations within each time scale. Extensive experiments are conducted on several real-world datasets to showcase the effectiveness of MSGNet. Furthermore, MSGNet possesses the ability to automatically learn explainable multi-scale inter-series correlations, exhibiting strong generalization capabilities even when applied to out-of-distribution samples.

preprint2022arXiv

GRAPHCACHE: Message Passing as Caching for Sentence-Level Relation Extraction

Entity types and textual context are essential properties for sentence-level relation extraction (RE). Existing work only encodes these properties within individual instances, which limits the performance of RE given the insufficient features in a single sentence. In contrast, we model these properties from the whole dataset and use the dataset-level information to enrich the semantics of every instance. We propose the GRAPHCACHE (Graph Neural Network as Caching) module, that propagates the features across sentences to learn better representations for RE. GRAPHCACHE aggregates the features from sentences in the whole dataset to learn global representations of properties, and use them to augment the local features within individual sentences. The global property features act as dataset-level prior knowledge for RE, and a complement to the sentence-level features. Inspired by the classical caching technique in computer systems, we develop GRAPHCACHE to update the property representations in an online manner. Overall, GRAPHCACHE yields significant effectiveness gains on RE and enables efficient message passing across all sentences in the dataset.

preprint2022arXiv

Should We Rely on Entity Mentions for Relation Extraction? Debiasing Relation Extraction with Counterfactual Analysis

Recent literature focuses on utilizing the entity information in the sentence-level relation extraction (RE), but this risks leaking superficial and spurious clues of relations. As a result, RE still suffers from unintended entity bias, i.e., the spurious correlation between entity mentions (names) and relations. Entity bias can mislead the RE models to extract the relations that do not exist in the text. To combat this issue, some previous work masks the entity mentions to prevent the RE models from overfitting entity mentions. However, this strategy degrades the RE performance because it loses the semantic information of entities. In this paper, we propose the CORE (Counterfactual Analysis based Relation Extraction) debiasing method that guides the RE models to focus on the main effects of textual context without losing the entity information. We first construct a causal graph for RE, which models the dependencies between variables in RE models. Then, we propose to conduct counterfactual analysis on our causal graph to distill and mitigate the entity bias, that captures the causal effects of specific entity mentions in each instance. Note that our CORE method is model-agnostic to debias existing RE systems during inference without changing their training processes. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our CORE yields significant gains on both effectiveness and generalization for RE. The source code is provided at: https://github.com/vanoracai/CoRE.

preprint2022arXiv

VECtor: A Versatile Event-Centric Benchmark for Multi-Sensor SLAM

Event cameras have recently gained in popularity as they hold strong potential to complement regular cameras in situations of high dynamics or challenging illumination. An important problem that may benefit from the addition of an event camera is given by Simultaneous Localization And Mapping (SLAM). However, in order to ensure progress on event-inclusive multi-sensor SLAM, novel benchmark sequences are needed. Our contribution is the first complete set of benchmark datasets captured with a multi-sensor setup containing an event-based stereo camera, a regular stereo camera, multiple depth sensors, and an inertial measurement unit. The setup is fully hardware-synchronized and underwent accurate extrinsic calibration. All sequences come with ground truth data captured by highly accurate external reference devices such as a motion capture system. Individual sequences include both small and large-scale environments, and cover the specific challenges targeted by dynamic vision sensors.

preprint2021arXiv

Phase function estimation from a diffuse optical image via deep learning

The phase function is a key element of a light propagation model for Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, which is usually fitted with an analytic function with associated parameters. In recent years, machine learning methods were reported to estimate the parameters of the phase function of a particular form such as the Henyey-Greenstein phase function but, to our knowledge, no studies have been performed to determine the form of the phase function. Here we design a convolutional neural network to estimate the phase function from a diffuse optical image without any explicit assumption on the form of the phase function. Specifically, we use a Gaussian mixture model as an example to represent the phase function generally and learn the model parameters accurately. The Gaussian mixture model is selected because it provides the analytic expression of phase function to facilitate deflection angle sampling in MC simulation, and does not significantly increase the number of free parameters. Our proposed method is validated on MC-simulated reflectance images of typical biological tissues using the Henyey-Greenstein phase function with different anisotropy factors. The effects of field of view (FOV) and spatial resolution on the errors are analyzed to optimize the estimation method. The mean squared error of the phase function is 0.01 and the relative error of the anisotropy factor is 3.28%.

preprint2020arXiv

Directed Graph Convolutional Network

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have been widely used due to their outstanding performance in processing graph-structured data. However, the undirected graphs limit their application scope. In this paper, we extend spectral-based graph convolution to directed graphs by using first- and second-order proximity, which can not only retain the connection properties of the directed graph, but also expand the receptive field of the convolution operation. A new GCN model, called DGCN, is then designed to learn representations on the directed graph, leveraging both the first- and second-order proximity information. We empirically show the fact that GCNs working only with DGCNs can encode more useful information from graph and help achieve better performance when generalized to other models. Moreover, extensive experiments on citation networks and co-purchase datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model against the state-of-the-art methods.

preprint2020arXiv

Fine-Grained Urban Flow Inference

The ubiquitous deployment of monitoring devices in urban flow monitoring systems induces a significant cost for maintenance and operation. A technique is required to reduce the number of deployed devices, while preventing the degeneration of data accuracy and granularity. In this paper, we present an approach for inferring the real-time and fine-grained crowd flows throughout a city based on coarse-grained observations. This task exhibits two challenges: the spatial correlations between coarse- and fine-grained urban flows, and the complexities of external impacts. To tackle these issues, we develop a model entitled UrbanFM which consists of two major parts: 1) an inference network to generate fine-grained flow distributions from coarse-grained inputs that uses a feature extraction module and a novel distributional upsampling module; 2) a general fusion subnet to further boost the performance by considering the influence of different external factors. This structure provides outstanding effectiveness and efficiency for small scale upsampling. However, the single-pass upsampling used by UrbanFM is insufficient at higher upscaling rates. Therefore, we further present UrbanPy, a cascading model for progressive inference of fine-grained urban flows by decomposing the original tasks into multiple subtasks. Compared to UrbanFM, such an enhanced structure demonstrates favorable performance for larger-scale inference tasks.

preprint2020arXiv

GraphCrop: Subgraph Cropping for Graph Classification

We present a new method to regularize graph neural networks (GNNs) for better generalization in graph classification. Observing that the omission of sub-structures does not necessarily change the class label of the whole graph, we develop the \textbf{GraphCrop} (Subgraph Cropping) data augmentation method to simulate the real-world noise of sub-structure omission. In principle, GraphCrop utilizes a node-centric strategy to crop a contiguous subgraph from the original graph while maintaining its connectivity. By preserving the valid structure contexts for graph classification, we encourage GNNs to understand the content of graph structures in a global sense, rather than rely on a few key nodes or edges, which may not always be present. GraphCrop is parameter learning free and easy to implement within existing GNN-based graph classifiers. Qualitatively, GraphCrop expands the existing training set by generating novel and informative augmented graphs, which retain the original graph labels in most cases. Quantitatively, GraphCrop yields significant and consistent gains on multiple standard datasets, and thus enhances the popular GNNs to outperform the baseline methods.

preprint2020arXiv

Predicting Citywide Crowd Flows in Irregular Regions Using Multi-View Graph Convolutional Networks

Being able to predict the crowd flows in each and every part of a city, especially in irregular regions, is strategically important for traffic control, risk assessment, and public safety. However, it is very challenging because of interactions and spatial correlations between different regions. In addition, it is affected by many factors: i) multiple temporal correlations among different time intervals: closeness, period, trend; ii) complex external influential factors: weather, events; iii) meta features: time of the day, day of the week, and so on. In this paper, we formulate crowd flow forecasting in irregular regions as a spatio-temporal graph (STG) prediction problem in which each node represents a region with time-varying flows. By extending graph convolution to handle the spatial information, we propose using spatial graph convolution to build a multi-view graph convolutional network (MVGCN) for the crowd flow forecasting problem, where different views can capture different factors as mentioned above. We evaluate MVGCN using four real-world datasets (taxicabs and bikes) and extensive experimental results show that our approach outperforms the adaptations of state-of-the-art methods. And we have developed a crowd flow forecasting system for irregular regions that can now be used internally.

preprint2020arXiv

Revisiting Convolutional Neural Networks for Citywide Crowd Flow Analytics

Citywide crowd flow analytics is of great importance to smart city efforts. It aims to model the crowd flow (e.g., inflow and outflow) of each region in a city based on historical observations. Nowadays, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been widely adopted in raster-based crowd flow analytics by virtue of their capability in capturing spatial dependencies. After revisiting CNN-based methods for different analytics tasks, we expose two common critical drawbacks in the existing uses: 1) inefficiency in learning global spatial dependencies, and 2) overlooking latent region functions. To tackle these challenges, in this paper we present a novel framework entitled DeepLGR that can be easily generalized to address various citywide crowd flow analytics problems. This framework consists of three parts: 1) a local feature extraction module to learn representations for each region; 2) a global context module to extract global contextual priors and upsample them to generate the global features; and 3) a region-specific predictor based on tensor decomposition to provide customized predictions for each region, which is very parameter-efficient compared to previous methods. Extensive experiments on two typical crowd flow analytics tasks demonstrate the effectiveness, stability, and generality of our framework.