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Yoav Wald

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2 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

MILM: Large Language Models for Multimodal Irregular Time Series with Informative Sampling

Multimodal irregular time series (MITS) consist of asynchronous and irregularly sampled observations from heterogeneous numerical and textual channels. In healthcare, for example, patients' electronic health records (EHR) include irregular lab measurements and clinical notes. The irregular timing and channel patterns of observations carry predictive signal alongside the numerical values and textual content. LLMs are natural candidates for processing such heterogeneous data, given their extensive pretrained knowledge spanning textual and numerical domains. We introduce MILM (Multimodal Irregular time series Language Model), which represents MITS as time-ordered triplets in Extensible Markup Language (XML) format and fine-tunes an LLM through a two-stage strategy for MITS classification. The first stage trains on value-redacted MITS to predict from sampling patterns alone, and the second stage trains on full MITS to jointly model sampling patterns and observed values. Our two-stage model (MILM-2S) and its single-stage counterpart (MILM-Direct) achieve the best and second-best average performance on multiple EHR datasets. Further value redaction evaluations confirm that sampling patterns carry predictive signal and that MILM-2S learns to exploit them. In the value pending evaluation we introduce, where some values are unavailable at prediction time, MILM-2S outperforms MILM-Direct by a larger margin compared to standard evaluation. For MILM-2S, preserving the time and channel of value-pending observations as additional sampling information further improves in-hospital mortality prediction.

preprint2022arXiv

On Calibration and Out-of-domain Generalization

Out-of-domain (OOD) generalization is a significant challenge for machine learning models. Many techniques have been proposed to overcome this challenge, often focused on learning models with certain invariance properties. In this work, we draw a link between OOD performance and model calibration, arguing that calibration across multiple domains can be viewed as a special case of an invariant representation leading to better OOD generalization. Specifically, we show that under certain conditions, models which achieve \emph{multi-domain calibration} are provably free of spurious correlations. This leads us to propose multi-domain calibration as a measurable and trainable surrogate for the OOD performance of a classifier. We therefore introduce methods that are easy to apply and allow practitioners to improve multi-domain calibration by training or modifying an existing model, leading to better performance on unseen domains. Using four datasets from the recently proposed WILDS OOD benchmark, as well as the Colored MNIST dataset, we demonstrate that training or tuning models so they are calibrated across multiple domains leads to significantly improved performance on unseen test domains. We believe this intriguing connection between calibration and OOD generalization is promising from both a practical and theoretical point of view.