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Joydeep Ghosh

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Published work

33 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Goal-Conditioned Supervised Learning for LLM Fine-Tuning

Large language models often require fine-tuning to better align their behavior with user intent at deployment. Existing approaches are commonly divided into online and offline paradigms. Online methods, such as RL-based alignment, can directly optimize outcome quality but typically rely on external reward models and iterative rollouts, making them costly and difficult to deploy in many cases. Offline methods are more efficient, but prevailing approaches such as supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) remain limited: SFT typically collapses graded feedback into binary supervision, while DPO depends on paired preference data that is often unavailable or expensive to construct. In this paper, we propose goal-conditioned supervised learning (GCSL) as an offline fine-tuning framework for LLMs. Our core idea is to treat feedback signals directly as an explicit goal and train the model, purely through supervised learning, to generate responses that achieve that goal. To better exploit graded feedback, we further introduce a novel goal formulation that defines learning as consistently pursuing outcomes above a target quality threshold, rather than imitating samples from a selected high-quality subset. This design mitigates the bounded-learning effect of SFT and classic GCSL by explicitly guiding the model to learn the directional progression of quality. We also propose natural-language goal representations to better leverage the semantic understanding and reasoning capabilities of LLMs. We evaluate our method on three tasks: non-toxic generation, code generation, and LLM for recommendation. Results show that our approach consistently outperforms standard offline fine-tuning baselines while retaining the efficiency, scalability, and simple data requirements of supervised learning.

preprint2026arXiv

MILM: Large Language Models for Multimodal Irregular Time Series with Informative Sampling

Multimodal irregular time series (MITS) consist of asynchronous and irregularly sampled observations from heterogeneous numerical and textual channels. In healthcare, for example, patients' electronic health records (EHR) include irregular lab measurements and clinical notes. The irregular timing and channel patterns of observations carry predictive signal alongside the numerical values and textual content. LLMs are natural candidates for processing such heterogeneous data, given their extensive pretrained knowledge spanning textual and numerical domains. We introduce MILM (Multimodal Irregular time series Language Model), which represents MITS as time-ordered triplets in Extensible Markup Language (XML) format and fine-tunes an LLM through a two-stage strategy for MITS classification. The first stage trains on value-redacted MITS to predict from sampling patterns alone, and the second stage trains on full MITS to jointly model sampling patterns and observed values. Our two-stage model (MILM-2S) and its single-stage counterpart (MILM-Direct) achieve the best and second-best average performance on multiple EHR datasets. Further value redaction evaluations confirm that sampling patterns carry predictive signal and that MILM-2S learns to exploit them. In the value pending evaluation we introduce, where some values are unavailable at prediction time, MILM-2S outperforms MILM-Direct by a larger margin compared to standard evaluation. For MILM-2S, preserving the time and channel of value-pending observations as additional sampling information further improves in-hospital mortality prediction.

preprint2026arXiv

RRCM: Ranking-Driven Retrieval over Collaborative and Meta Memories for LLM Recommendation

Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for next-generation recommender systems, offering strong semantic understanding and natural-language reasoning abilities. Despite recent progress, current LLM-based recommenders still face key challenges in constructing decision-relevant contexts from heterogeneous evidence. First, existing methods often rely on fixed context construction strategies: collaborative behavioral evidence and item-side metadata are typically incorporated through predefined prompts, static retrieval pipelines, or handcrafted injection mechanisms, making it difficult to determine what information is truly beneficial for each instance. Second, heterogeneous evidence introduces a severe context-efficiency bottleneck. Rich metadata and collaborative interaction records can quickly overwhelm the context window, while aggressive compression or heuristic filtering may discard fine-grained evidence critical for accurate recommendation. To address these challenges, we propose RRCM, a ranking-driven retrieval-and-reasoning framework over collaborative and metadata memories for LLM-based agentic recommendation. RRCM starts from a lightweight user-history context and learns whether to recommend directly, retrieve collaborative evidence, retrieve item metadata, or interleave both through reasoning. Both memories are represented in natural language and accessed through a unified retrieval interface, enabling flexible evidence acquisition without handcrafted CF injection or fixed retrieval rules. We optimize this memory-reading policy with an outcome-only ranking reward, instantiated using group relative policy optimization, so that retrieval decisions are directly driven by final top-k recommendation quality. Extensive experiments show that RRCM significantly outperforms traditional baselines and diverse LLM-based recommendation approaches.

preprint2023arXiv

Dynamic Combination of Heterogeneous Models for Hierarchical Time Series

We introduce a framework to dynamically combine heterogeneous models called \texttt{DYCHEM}, which forecasts a set of time series that are related through an aggregation hierarchy. Different types of forecasting models can be employed as individual ``experts'' so that each model is tailored to the nature of the corresponding time series. \texttt{DYCHEM} learns hierarchical structures during the training stage to help generalize better across all the time series being modeled and also mitigates coherency issues that arise due to constraints imposed by the hierarchy. To improve the reliability of forecasts, we construct quantile estimations based on the point forecasts obtained from combined heterogeneous models. The resulting quantile forecasts are coherent and independent of the choice of forecasting models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of both point and quantile forecasts for hierarchical time series (HTS), including public data and user records from a large financial software company. In general, our method is robust, adaptive to datasets with different properties, and highly configurable and efficient for large-scale forecasting pipelines.

preprint2022arXiv

Architecture Agnostic Federated Learning for Neural Networks

With growing concerns regarding data privacy and rapid increase in data volume, Federated Learning(FL) has become an important learning paradigm. However, jointly learning a deep neural network model in a FL setting proves to be a non-trivial task because of the complexities associated with the neural networks, such as varied architectures across clients, permutation invariance of the neurons, and presence of non-linear transformations in each layer. This work introduces a novel Federated Heterogeneous Neural Networks (FedHeNN) framework that allows each client to build a personalised model without enforcing a common architecture across clients. This allows each client to optimize with respect to local data and compute constraints, while still benefiting from the learnings of other (potentially more powerful) clients. The key idea of FedHeNN is to use the instance-level representations obtained from peer clients to guide the simultaneous training on each client. The extensive experimental results demonstrate that the FedHeNN framework is capable of learning better performing models on clients in both the settings of homogeneous and heterogeneous architectures across clients.

preprint2022arXiv

Efficient Forecasting of Large Scale Hierarchical Time Series via Multilevel Clustering

We propose a novel approach to the problem of clustering hierarchically aggregated time-series data, which has remained an understudied problem though it has several commercial applications. We first group time series at each aggregated level, while simultaneously leveraging local and global information. The proposed method can cluster hierarchical time series (HTS) with different lengths and structures. For common two-level hierarchies, we employ a combined objective for local and global clustering over spaces of discrete probability measures, using Wasserstein distance coupled with Soft-DTW divergence. For multi-level hierarchies, we present a bottom-up procedure that progressively leverages lower-level information for higher-level clustering. Our final goal is to improve both the accuracy and speed of forecasts for a larger number of HTS needed for a real-world application. To attain this goal, each time series is first assigned the forecast for its cluster representative, which can be considered as a "shrinkage prior" for the set of time series it represents. Then this base forecast can be quickly fine-tuned to adjust to the specifics of that time series. We empirically show that our method substantially improves performance in terms of both speed and accuracy for large-scale forecasting tasks involving much HTS.

preprint2022arXiv

Federated Self-supervised Learning for Heterogeneous Clients

Federated Learning has become an important learning paradigm due to its privacy and computational benefits. As the field advances, two key challenges that still remain to be addressed are: (1) system heterogeneity - variability in the compute and/or data resources present on each client, and (2) lack of labeled data in certain federated settings. Several recent developments have tried to overcome these challenges independently. In this work, we propose a unified and systematic framework, \emph{Heterogeneous Self-supervised Federated Learning} (Hetero-SSFL) for enabling self-supervised learning with federation on heterogeneous clients. The proposed framework allows collaborative representation learning across all the clients without imposing architectural constraints or requiring presence of labeled data. The key idea in Hetero-SSFL is to let each client train its unique self-supervised model and enable the joint learning across clients by aligning the lower dimensional representations on a common dataset. The entire training procedure could be viewed as self and peer-supervised as both the local training and the alignment procedures do not require presence of any labeled data. As in conventional self-supervised learning, the obtained client models are task independent and can be used for varied end-tasks. We provide a convergence guarantee of the proposed framework for non-convex objectives in heterogeneous settings and also empirically demonstrate that our proposed approach outperforms the state of the art methods by a significant margin.

preprint2021arXiv

Improving and Diagnosing Knowledge-Based Visual Question Answering via Entity Enhanced Knowledge Injection

Knowledge-Based Visual Question Answering (KBVQA) is a bi-modal task requiring external world knowledge in order to correctly answer a text question and associated image. Recent single modality text work has shown knowledge injection into pre-trained language models, specifically entity enhanced knowledge graph embeddings, can improve performance on downstream entity-centric tasks. In this work, we empirically study how and whether such methods, applied in a bi-modal setting, can improve an existing VQA system's performance on the KBVQA task. We experiment with two large publicly available VQA datasets, (1) KVQA which contains mostly rare Wikipedia entities and (2) OKVQA which is less entity-centric and more aligned with common sense reasoning. Both lack explicit entity spans and we study the effect of different weakly supervised and manual methods for obtaining them. Additionally we analyze how recently proposed bi-modal and single modal attention explanations are affected by the incorporation of such entity enhanced representations. Our results show substantial improved performance on the KBVQA task without the need for additional costly pre-training and we provide insights for when entity knowledge injection helps improve a model's understanding. We provide code and enhanced datasets for reproducibility.

preprint2021arXiv

Simultaneously Reconciled Quantile Forecasting of Hierarchically Related Time Series

Many real-life applications involve simultaneously forecasting multiple time series that are hierarchically related via aggregation or disaggregation operations. For instance, commercial organizations often want to forecast inventories simultaneously at store, city, and state levels for resource planning purposes. In such applications, it is important that the forecasts, in addition to being reasonably accurate, are also consistent w.r.t one another. Although forecasting such hierarchical time series has been pursued by economists and data scientists, the current state-of-the-art models use strong assumptions, e.g., all forecasts being unbiased estimates, noise distribution being Gaussian. Besides, state-of-the-art models have not harnessed the power of modern nonlinear models, especially ones based on deep learning. In this paper, we propose using a flexible nonlinear model that optimizes quantile regression loss coupled with suitable regularization terms to maintain the consistency of forecasts across hierarchies. The theoretical framework introduced herein can be applied to any forecasting model with an underlying differentiable loss function. A proof of optimality of our proposed method is also provided. Simulation studies over a range of datasets highlight the efficacy of our approach.

preprint2020arXiv

Explainable Machine Learning in Deployment

Explainable machine learning offers the potential to provide stakeholders with insights into model behavior by using various methods such as feature importance scores, counterfactual explanations, or influential training data. Yet there is little understanding of how organizations use these methods in practice. This study explores how organizations view and use explainability for stakeholder consumption. We find that, currently, the majority of deployments are not for end users affected by the model but rather for machine learning engineers, who use explainability to debug the model itself. There is thus a gap between explainability in practice and the goal of transparency, since explanations primarily serve internal stakeholders rather than external ones. Our study synthesizes the limitations of current explainability techniques that hamper their use for end users. To facilitate end user interaction, we develop a framework for establishing clear goals for explainability. We end by discussing concerns raised regarding explainability.

preprint2019arXiv

CERTIFAI: Counterfactual Explanations for Robustness, Transparency, Interpretability, and Fairness of Artificial Intelligence models

As artificial intelligence plays an increasingly important role in our society, there are ethical and moral obligations for both businesses and researchers to ensure that their machine learning models are designed, deployed, and maintained responsibly. These models need to be rigorously audited for fairness, robustness, transparency, and interpretability. A variety of methods have been developed that focus on these issues in isolation, however, managing these methods in conjunction with model development can be cumbersome and timeconsuming. In this paper, we introduce a unified and model-agnostic approach to address these issues: Counterfactual Explanations for Robustness, Transparency, Interpretability, and Fairness of Artificial Intelligence models (CERTIFAI). Unlike previous methods in this domain, CERTIFAI is a general tool that can be applied to any black-box model and any type of input data. Given a model and an input instance, CERTIFAI uses a custom genetic algorithm to generate counterfactuals: instances close to the input that change the prediction of the model. We demonstrate how these counterfactuals can be used to examine issues of robustness, interpretability, transparency, and fairness. Additionally, we introduce CERScore, the first black-box model robustness score that performs comparably to methods that have access to model internals.

preprint2016arXiv

ACDC: $α$-Carving Decision Chain for Risk Stratification

In many healthcare settings, intuitive decision rules for risk stratification can help effective hospital resource allocation. This paper introduces a novel variant of decision tree algorithms that produces a chain of decisions, not a general tree. Our algorithm, $α$-Carving Decision Chain (ACDC), sequentially carves out "pure" subsets of the majority class examples. The resulting chain of decision rules yields a pure subset of the minority class examples. Our approach is particularly effective in exploring large and class-imbalanced health datasets. Moreover, ACDC provides an interactive interpretation in conjunction with visual performance metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristics curve and Lift chart.

preprint2016arXiv

Generalized Linear Models for Aggregated Data

Databases in domains such as healthcare are routinely released to the public in aggregated form. Unfortunately, naive modeling with aggregated data may significantly diminish the accuracy of inferences at the individual level. This paper addresses the scenario where features are provided at the individual level, but the target variables are only available as histogram aggregates or order statistics. We consider a limiting case of generalized linear modeling when the target variables are only known up to permutation, and explore how this relates to permutation testing; a standard technique for assessing statistical dependency. Based on this relationship, we propose a simple algorithm to estimate the model parameters and individual level inferences via alternating imputation and standard generalized linear model fitting. Our results suggest the effectiveness of the proposed approach when, in the original data, permutation testing accurately ascertains the veracity of the linear relationship. The framework is extended to general histogram data with larger bins - with order statistics such as the median as a limiting case. Our experimental results on simulated data and aggregated healthcare data suggest a diminishing returns property with respect to the granularity of the histogram - when a linear relationship holds in the original data, the targets can be predicted accurately given relatively coarse histograms.

preprint2016arXiv

Graphical RNN Models

Many time series are generated by a set of entities that interact with one another over time. This paper introduces a broad, flexible framework to learn from multiple inter-dependent time series generated by such entities. Our framework explicitly models the entities and their interactions through time. It achieves this by building on the capabilities of Recurrent Neural Networks, while also offering several ways to incorporate domain knowledge/constraints into the model architecture. The capabilities of our approach are showcased through an application to weather prediction, which shows gains over strong baselines.

preprint2016arXiv

Identifiable Phenotyping using Constrained Non-Negative Matrix Factorization

This work proposes a new algorithm for automated and simultaneous phenotyping of multiple co-occurring medical conditions, also referred as comorbidities, using clinical notes from the electronic health records (EHRs). A basic latent factor estimation technique of non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is augmented with domain specific constraints to obtain sparse latent factors that are anchored to a fixed set of chronic conditions. The proposed anchoring mechanism ensures a one-to-one identifiable and interpretable mapping between the latent factors and the target comorbidities. Qualitative assessment of the empirical results by clinical experts suggests that the proposed model learns clinically interpretable phenotypes while being predictive of 30 day mortality. The proposed method can be readily adapted to any non-negative EHR data across various healthcare institutions.

preprint2016arXiv

Information Projection and Approximate Inference for Structured Sparse Variables

Approximate inference via information projection has been recently introduced as a general-purpose approach for efficient probabilistic inference given sparse variables. This manuscript goes beyond classical sparsity by proposing efficient algorithms for approximate inference via information projection that are applicable to any structure on the set of variables that admits enumeration using a \emph{matroid}. We show that the resulting information projection can be reduced to combinatorial submodular optimization subject to matroid constraints. Further, leveraging recent advances in submodular optimization, we provide an efficient greedy algorithm with strong optimization-theoretic guarantees. The class of probabilistic models that can be expressed in this way is quite broad and, as we show, includes group sparse regression, group sparse principal components analysis and sparse canonical correlation analysis, among others. Moreover, empirical results on simulated data and high dimensional neuroimaging data highlight the superior performance of the information projection approach as compared to established baselines for a range of probabilistic models.

preprint2016arXiv

Monotone Retargeting for Unsupervised Rank Aggregation with Object Features

Learning the true ordering between objects by aggregating a set of expert opinion rank order lists is an important and ubiquitous problem in many applications ranging from social choice theory to natural language processing and search aggregation. We study the problem of unsupervised rank aggregation where no ground truth ordering information in available, neither about the true preference ordering between any set of objects nor about the quality of individual rank lists. Aggregating the often inconsistent and poor quality rank lists in such an unsupervised manner is a highly challenging problem, and standard consensus-based methods are often ill-defined, and difficult to solve. In this manuscript we propose a novel framework to bypass these issues by using object attributes to augment the standard rank aggregation framework. We design algorithms that learn joint models on both rank lists and object features to obtain an aggregated rank ordering that is more accurate and robust, and also helps weed out rank lists of dubious validity. We validate our techniques on synthetic datasets where our algorithm is able to estimate the true rank ordering even when the rank lists are corrupted. Experiments on three real datasets, MQ2008, MQ2008 and OHSUMED, show that using object features can result in significant improvement in performance over existing rank aggregation methods that do not use object information. Furthermore, when at least some of the rank lists are of high quality, our methods are able to effectively exploit their high expertise to output an aggregated rank ordering of great accuracy.

preprint2016arXiv

Phenotyping using Structured Collective Matrix Factorization of Multi--source EHR Data

The increased availability of electronic health records (EHRs) have spearheaded the initiative for precision medicine using data driven approaches. Essential to this effort is the ability to identify patients with certain medical conditions of interest from simple queries on EHRs, or EHR-based phenotypes. Existing rule--based phenotyping approaches are extremely labor intensive. Instead, dimensionality reduction and latent factor estimation techniques from machine learning can be adapted for phenotype extraction with no (or minimal) human supervision. We propose to identify an easily interpretable latent space shared across various sources of EHR data as potential candidates for phenotypes. By incorporating multiple EHR data sources (e.g., diagnosis, medications, and lab reports) available in heterogeneous datatypes in a generalized \textit{Collective Matrix Factorization (CMF)}, our methods can generate rich phenotypes. Further, easy interpretability in phenotyping application requires sparse representations of the candidate phenotypes, for example each phenotype derived from patients' medication and diagnosis data should preferably be represented by handful of diagnosis and medications, ($5$--$10$ active components). We propose a constrained formulation of CMF for estimating sparse phenotypes. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model through an extensive empirical study on EHR data from Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

preprint2016arXiv

Preference Completion from Partial Rankings

We propose a novel and efficient algorithm for the collaborative preference completion problem, which involves jointly estimating individualized rankings for a set of entities over a shared set of items, based on a limited number of observed affinity values. Our approach exploits the observation that while preferences are often recorded as numerical scores, the predictive quantity of interest is the underlying rankings. Thus, attempts to closely match the recorded scores may lead to overfitting and impair generalization performance. Instead, we propose an estimator that directly fits the underlying preference order, combined with nuclear norm constraints to encourage low--rank parameters. Besides (approximate) correctness of the ranking order, the proposed estimator makes no generative assumption on the numerical scores of the observations. One consequence is that the proposed estimator can fit any consistent partial ranking over a subset of the items represented as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), generalizing standard techniques that can only fit preference scores. Despite this generality, for supervision representing total or blockwise total orders, the computational complexity of our algorithm is within a $\log$ factor of the standard algorithms for nuclear norm regularization based estimates for matrix completion. We further show promising empirical results for a novel and challenging application of collaboratively ranking of the associations between brain--regions and cognitive neuroscience terms.

preprint2015arXiv

DPM: A State Space Model for Large-Scale Direct Marketing

We propose a novel statistical model to answer three challenges in direct marketing: which channel to use, which offer to make, and when to offer. There are several potential applications for the proposed model, for example, developing personalized marketing strategies and monitoring members' needs. Furthermore, the results from the model can complement and can be integrated with other existing models. The proposed model, named Dynamic Propensity Model, is a latent variable time series model that utilizes both marketing and purchase histories of a customer. The latent variable in the model represents the customer's propensity to buy a product. The propensity derives from purchases and other observable responses. Marketing touches increase a member's propensity, and propensity score attenuates and propagates over time as governed by data-driven parameters. To estimate the parameters of the model, a new statistical methodology has been developed. This methodology makes use of particle methods with a stochastic gradient descent approach, resulting in fast estimation of the model coefficients even from big datasets. The model is validated using six months' marketing records from one of the largest insurance companies in the U.S. Experimental results indicate that the effects of marketing touches vary depending on both channels and products. We compare the predictive performance of the proposed model with lagged variable logistic regression. Limitations and extensions of the proposed algorithm are also discussed.

preprint2015arXiv

Exponential Family Matrix Completion under Structural Constraints

We consider the matrix completion problem of recovering a structured matrix from noisy and partial measurements. Recent works have proposed tractable estimators with strong statistical guarantees for the case where the underlying matrix is low--rank, and the measurements consist of a subset, either of the exact individual entries, or of the entries perturbed by additive Gaussian noise, which is thus implicitly suited for thin--tailed continuous data. Arguably, common applications of matrix completion require estimators for (a) heterogeneous data--types, such as skewed--continuous, count, binary, etc., (b) for heterogeneous noise models (beyond Gaussian), which capture varied uncertainty in the measurements, and (c) heterogeneous structural constraints beyond low--rank, such as block--sparsity, or a superposition structure of low--rank plus elementwise sparseness, among others. In this paper, we provide a vastly unified framework for generalized matrix completion by considering a matrix completion setting wherein the matrix entries are sampled from any member of the rich family of exponential family distributions; and impose general structural constraints on the underlying matrix, as captured by a general regularizer $\mathcal{R}(.)$. We propose a simple convex regularized $M$--estimator for the generalized framework, and provide a unified and novel statistical analysis for this general class of estimators. We finally corroborate our theoretical results on simulated datasets.

preprint2015arXiv

Nonparametric Bayesian Factor Analysis for Dynamic Count Matrices

A gamma process dynamic Poisson factor analysis model is proposed to factorize a dynamic count matrix, whose columns are sequentially observed count vectors. The model builds a novel Markov chain that sends the latent gamma random variables at time $(t-1)$ as the shape parameters of those at time $t$, which are linked to observed or latent counts under the Poisson likelihood. The significant challenge of inferring the gamma shape parameters is fully addressed, using unique data augmentation and marginalization techniques for the negative binomial distribution. The same nonparametric Bayesian model also applies to the factorization of a dynamic binary matrix, via a Bernoulli-Poisson link that connects a binary observation to a latent count, with closed-form conditional posteriors for the latent counts and efficient computation for sparse observations. We apply the model to text and music analysis, with state-of-the-art results.

preprint2014arXiv

A Constrained Matrix-Variate Gaussian Process for Transposable Data

Transposable data represents interactions among two sets of entities, and are typically represented as a matrix containing the known interaction values. Additional side information may consist of feature vectors specific to entities corresponding to the rows and/or columns of such a matrix. Further information may also be available in the form of interactions or hierarchies among entities along the same mode (axis). We propose a novel approach for modeling transposable data with missing interactions given additional side information. The interactions are modeled as noisy observations from a latent noise free matrix generated from a matrix-variate Gaussian process. The construction of row and column covariances using side information provides a flexible mechanism for specifying a-priori knowledge of the row and column correlations in the data. Further, the use of such a prior combined with the side information enables predictions for new rows and columns not observed in the training data. In this work, we combine the matrix-variate Gaussian process model with low rank constraints. The constrained Gaussian process approach is applied to the prediction of hidden associations between genes and diseases using a small set of observed associations as well as prior covariances induced by gene-gene interaction networks and disease ontologies. The proposed approach is also applied to recommender systems data which involves predicting the item ratings of users using known associations as well as prior covariances induced by social networks. We present experimental results that highlight the performance of constrained matrix-variate Gaussian process as compared to state of the art approaches in each domain.

preprint2014arXiv

EPIC: Efficient prediction of IC manufacturing hotspots with a unified meta-classification formulation

In this paper we present EPIC, an efficient and effective predictor for IC manufacturing hotspots in deep sub-wavelength lithography. EPIC proposes a unified framework to combine different hotspot detection methods together, such as machine learning and pattern matching, using mathematical programming/optimization. EPIC algorithm has been tested on a number of industry benchmarks under advanced manufacturing conditions. It demonstrates so far the best capability in selectively combining the desirable features of various hotspot detection methods (3.5-8.2% accuracy improvement) as well as significant suppression of the detection noise (e.g., 80% false-alarm reduction). These characteristics make EPIC very suitable for conducting high performance physical verification and guiding efficient manufacturability friendly physical design.

preprint2013arXiv

Constrained Bayesian Inference for Low Rank Multitask Learning

We present a novel approach for constrained Bayesian inference. Unlike current methods, our approach does not require convexity of the constraint set. We reduce the constrained variational inference to a parametric optimization over the feasible set of densities and propose a general recipe for such problems. We apply the proposed constrained Bayesian inference approach to multitask learning subject to rank constraints on the weight matrix. Further, constrained parameter estimation is applied to recover the sparse conditional independence structure encoded by prior precision matrices. Our approach is motivated by reverse inference for high dimensional functional neuroimaging, a domain where the high dimensionality and small number of examples requires the use of constraints to ensure meaningful and effective models. For this application, we propose a model that jointly learns a weight matrix and the prior inverse covariance structure between different tasks. We present experimental validation showing that the proposed approach outperforms strong baseline models in terms of predictive performance and structure recovery.

preprint2013arXiv

Perturbed Gibbs Samplers for Synthetic Data Release

We propose a categorical data synthesizer with a quantifiable disclosure risk. Our algorithm, named Perturbed Gibbs Sampler, can handle high-dimensional categorical data that are often intractable to represent as contingency tables. The algorithm extends a multiple imputation strategy for fully synthetic data by utilizing feature hashing and non-parametric distribution approximations. California Patient Discharge data are used to demonstrate statistical properties of the proposed synthesizing methodology. Marginal and conditional distributions, as well as the coefficients of regression models built on the synthesized data are compared to those obtained from the original data. Intruder scenarios are simulated to evaluate disclosure risks of the synthesized data from multiple angles. Limitations and extensions of the proposed algorithm are also discussed.

preprint2013arXiv

Risk Prediction of a Multiple Sclerosis Diagnosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease that affects the central nervous system. The progression and severity of MS varies by individual, but it is generally a disabling disease. Although medications have been developed to slow the disease progression and help manage symptoms, MS research has yet to result in a cure. Early diagnosis and treatment of the disease have been shown to be effective at slowing the development of disabilities. However, early MS diagnosis is difficult because symptoms are intermittent and shared with other diseases. Thus most previous works have focused on uncovering the risk factors associated with MS and predicting the progression of disease after a diagnosis rather than disease prediction. This paper investigates the use of data available in electronic medical records (EMRs) to create a risk prediction model; thereby helping clinicians perform the difficult task of diagnosing an MS patient. Our results demonstrate that even given a limited time window of patient data, one can achieve reasonable classification with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.724. By restricting our features to common EMR components, the developed models also generalize to other healthcare systems.

preprint2013arXiv

The trace norm constrained matrix-variate Gaussian process for multitask bipartite ranking

We propose a novel hierarchical model for multitask bipartite ranking. The proposed approach combines a matrix-variate Gaussian process with a generative model for task-wise bipartite ranking. In addition, we employ a novel trace constrained variational inference approach to impose low rank structure on the posterior matrix-variate Gaussian process. The resulting posterior covariance function is derived in closed form, and the posterior mean function is the solution to a matrix-variate regression with a novel spectral elastic net regularizer. Further, we show that variational inference for the trace constrained matrix-variate Gaussian process combined with maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the bipartite ranking model is jointly convex. Our motivating application is the prioritization of candidate disease genes. The goal of this task is to aid the identification of unobserved associations between human genes and diseases using a small set of observed associations as well as kernels induced by gene-gene interaction networks and disease ontologies. Our experimental results illustrate the performance of the proposed model on real world datasets. Moreover, we find that the resulting low rank solution improves the computational scalability of training and testing as compared to baseline models.

preprint2012arXiv

A Privacy-Aware Bayesian Approach for Combining Classifier and Cluster Ensembles

This paper introduces a privacy-aware Bayesian approach that combines ensembles of classifiers and clusterers to perform semi-supervised and transductive learning. We consider scenarios where instances and their classification/clustering results are distributed across different data sites and have sharing restrictions. As a special case, the privacy aware computation of the model when instances of the target data are distributed across different data sites, is also discussed. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can provide good classification accuracies while adhering to the data/model sharing constraints.

preprint2012arXiv

An Optimization Framework for Semi-Supervised and Transfer Learning using Multiple Classifiers and Clusterers

Unsupervised models can provide supplementary soft constraints to help classify new, "target" data since similar instances in the target set are more likely to share the same class label. Such models can also help detect possible differences between training and target distributions, which is useful in applications where concept drift may take place, as in transfer learning settings. This paper describes a general optimization framework that takes as input class membership estimates from existing classifiers learnt on previously encountered "source" data, as well as a similarity matrix from a cluster ensemble operating solely on the target data to be classified, and yields a consensus labeling of the target data. This framework admits a wide range of loss functions and classification/clustering methods. It exploits properties of Bregman divergences in conjunction with Legendre duality to yield a principled and scalable approach. A variety of experiments show that the proposed framework can yield results substantially superior to those provided by popular transductive learning techniques or by naively applying classifiers learnt on the original task to the target data.

preprint2012arXiv

Dating Texts without Explicit Temporal Cues

This paper tackles temporal resolution of documents, such as determining when a document is about or when it was written, based only on its text. We apply techniques from information retrieval that predict dates via language models over a discretized timeline. Unlike most previous works, we rely {\it solely} on temporal cues implicit in the text. We consider both document-likelihood and divergence based techniques and several smoothing methods for both of them. Our best model predicts the mid-point of individuals' lives with a median of 22 and mean error of 36 years for Wikipedia biographies from 3800 B.C. to the present day. We also show that this approach works well when training on such biographies and predicting dates both for non-biographical Wikipedia pages about specific years (500 B.C. to 2010 A.D.) and for publication dates of short stories (1798 to 2008). Together, our work shows that, even in absence of temporal extraction resources, it is possible to achieve remarkable temporal locality across a diverse set of texts.

preprint2012arXiv

Learning to Rank With Bregman Divergences and Monotone Retargeting

This paper introduces a novel approach for learning to rank (LETOR) based on the notion of monotone retargeting. It involves minimizing a divergence between all monotonic increasing transformations of the training scores and a parameterized prediction function. The minimization is both over the transformations as well as over the parameters. It is applied to Bregman divergences, a large class of "distance like" functions that were recently shown to be the unique class that is statistically consistent with the normalized discounted gain (NDCG) criterion [19]. The algorithm uses alternating projection style updates, in which one set of simultaneous projections can be computed independent of the Bregman divergence and the other reduces to parameter estimation of a generalized linear model. This results in easily implemented, efficiently parallelizable algorithm for the LETOR task that enjoys global optimum guarantees under mild conditions. We present empirical results on benchmark datasets showing that this approach can outperform the state of the art NDCG consistent techniques.

preprint2012arXiv

Probabilistic Combination of Classifier and Cluster Ensembles for Non-transductive Learning

Unsupervised models can provide supplementary soft constraints to help classify new target data under the assumption that similar objects in the target set are more likely to share the same class label. Such models can also help detect possible differences between training and target distributions, which is useful in applications where concept drift may take place. This paper describes a Bayesian framework that takes as input class labels from existing classifiers (designed based on labeled data from the source domain), as well as cluster labels from a cluster ensemble operating solely on the target data to be classified, and yields a consensus labeling of the target data. This framework is particularly useful when the statistics of the target data drift or change from those of the training data. We also show that the proposed framework is privacy-aware and allows performing distributed learning when data/models have sharing restrictions. Experiments show that our framework can yield superior results to those provided by applying classifier ensembles only.