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Yingying Fan

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Published work

18 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Harnessing Unimodality in Semiparametric Contextual Pricing via Oracle Price Map Learning

We study contextual dynamic pricing in a semiparametric scalar-index valuation model where the latent value is $v_t=μ_\ast(\mathsf c_t)+ξ_t$, with an unknown utility map $μ_\ast$ and an unknown additive noise distribution. The key decision object is the one-dimensional oracle price map $u\mapsto p^\ast(u)$ induced by the scalar index $u=μ_\ast(\mathsf c)$ and the noise tail. Under the $β$-Hölder smoothness of the tail function for $β\geq 2$ and a revenue-geometry condition that gives a unique, stable, interior maximizer, this oracle map is itself $(β-1)$-smooth. We exploit such structure through $\mathsf{ORBIT}$, a modular coarse-to-fine policy that takes a scalar pilot index as input, localizes a benchmark price in each active bin, and learns a local polynomial approximation of the oracle map inside a trust region via bandit convex optimization. For the baseline linear utility model $μ_\ast(\mathsf c)=\mathsf c^\topθ_\ast$, an adaptive elliptical exploration scheme constructs the required scalar pilot online without distributional assumptions on the contexts. The resulting policy achieves regret $\widetilde{O}\big(T^{\frac{2β-1}{4β-3}}+\sqrt{dT}\big)$. For fixed $d$, we establish a matching lower bound in the horizon dependence, unveiling that the nonparametric oracle-map learning term is minimax sharp. The same scalar-pilot interface also yields extensions to sparse high-dimensional linear utility and nonparametric Hölder utility.

preprint2022arXiv

Optimal Nonparametric Inference with Two-Scale Distributional Nearest Neighbors

The weighted nearest neighbors (WNN) estimator has been popularly used as a flexible and easy-to-implement nonparametric tool for mean regression estimation. The bagging technique is an elegant way to form WNN estimators with weights automatically generated to the nearest neighbors; we name the resulting estimator as the distributional nearest neighbors (DNN) for easy reference. Yet, there is a lack of distributional results for such estimator, limiting its application to statistical inference. Moreover, when the mean regression function has higher-order smoothness, DNN does not achieve the optimal nonparametric convergence rate, mainly because of the bias issue. In this work, we provide an in-depth technical analysis of the DNN, based on which we suggest a bias reduction approach for the DNN estimator by linearly combining two DNN estimators with different subsampling scales, resulting in the novel two-scale DNN (TDNN) estimator. The two-scale DNN estimator has an equivalent representation of WNN with weights admitting explicit forms and some being negative. We prove that, thanks to the use of negative weights, the two-scale DNN estimator enjoys the optimal nonparametric rate of convergence in estimating the regression function under the fourth-order smoothness condition. We further go beyond estimation and establish that the DNN and two-scale DNN are both asymptotically normal as the subsampling scales and sample size diverge to infinity. For the practical implementation, we also provide variance estimators and a distribution estimator using the jackknife and bootstrap techniques for the two-scale DNN. These estimators can be exploited for constructing valid confidence intervals for nonparametric inference of the regression function. The theoretical results and appealing finite-sample performance of the suggested two-scale DNN method are illustrated with several numerical examples.

preprint2020arXiv

Eigen selection in spectral clustering: a theory guided practice

Based on a Gaussian mixture type model , we derive an eigen selection procedure that improves the usual spectral clustering in high-dimensional settings. Concretely, we derive the asymptotic expansion of the spiked eigenvalues under eigenvalue multiplicity and eigenvalue ratio concentration results, giving rise to the first theory-backed eigen selection procedure in spectral clustering. The resulting eigen-selected spectral clustering (ESSC) algorithm enjoys better stability and compares favorably against canonical alternatives. We demonstrate the advantages of ESSC using extensive simulation and multiple real data studies.

preprint2020arXiv

The correlation-assisted missing data estimator

We introduce a novel approach to estimation problems in settings with missing data. Our proposal -- the Correlation-Assisted Missing data (CAM) estimator -- works by exploiting the relationship between the observations with missing features and those without missing features in order to obtain improved prediction accuracy. In particular, our theoretical results elucidate general conditions under which the proposed CAM estimator has lower mean squared error than the widely used complete-case approach in a range of estimation problems. We showcase in detail how the CAM estimator can be applied to $U$-Statistics to obtain an unbiased, asymptotically Gaussian estimator that has lower variance than the complete-case $U$-Statistic. Further, in nonparametric density estimation and regression problems, we construct our CAM estimator using kernel functions, and show it has lower asymptotic mean squared error than the corresponding complete-case kernel estimator. We also include practical demonstrations throughout the paper using simulated data and the Terneuzen birth cohort and Brandsma datasets available from CRAN.

preprint2016arXiv

Asymptotic equivalence of regularization methods in thresholded parameter space

High-dimensional data analysis has motivated a spectrum of regularization methods for variable selection and sparse modeling, with two popular classes of convex ones and concave ones. A long debate has been on whether one class dominates the other, an important question both in theory and to practitioners. In this paper, we characterize the asymptotic equivalence of regularization methods, with general penalty functions, in a thresholded parameter space under the generalized linear model setting, where the dimensionality can grow up to exponentially with the sample size. To assess their performance, we establish the oracle inequalities, as in Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (2009), of the global minimizer for these methods under various prediction and variable selection losses. These results reveal an interesting phase transition phenomenon. For polynomially growing dimensionality, the $L_1$-regularization method of Lasso and concave methods are asymptotically equivalent, having the same convergence rates in the oracle inequalities. For exponentially growing dimensionality, concave methods are asymptotically equivalent but have faster convergence rates than the Lasso. We also establish a stronger property of the oracle risk inequalities of the regularization methods, as well as the sampling properties of computable solutions. Our new theoretical results are illustrated and justified by simulation and real data examples.

preprint2016arXiv

Asymptotic properties for combined $L_1$ and concave regularization

Two important goals of high-dimensional modeling are prediction and variable selection. In this article, we consider regularization with combined $L_1$ and concave penalties, and study the sampling properties of the global optimum of the suggested method in ultra-high dimensional settings. The $L_1$-penalty provides the minimum regularization needed for removing noise variables in order to achieve oracle prediction risk, while concave penalty imposes additional regularization to control model sparsity. In the linear model setting, we prove that the global optimum of our method enjoys the same oracle inequalities as the lasso estimator and admits an explicit bound on the false sign rate, which can be asymptotically vanishing. Moreover, we establish oracle risk inequalities for the method and the sampling properties of computable solutions. Numerical studies suggest that our method yields more stable estimates than using a concave penalty alone.

preprint2016arXiv

High dimensional thresholded regression and shrinkage effect

High-dimensional sparse modeling via regularization provides a powerful tool for analyzing large-scale data sets and obtaining meaningful, interpretable models. The use of nonconvex penalty functions shows advantage in selecting important features in high dimensions, but the global optimality of such methods still demands more understanding. In this paper, we consider sparse regression with hard-thresholding penalty, which we show to give rise to thresholded regression. This approach is motivated by its close connection with the $L_0$-regularization, which can be unrealistic to implement in practice but of appealing sampling properties, and its computational advantage. Under some mild regularity conditions allowing possibly exponentially growing dimensionality, we establish the oracle inequalities of the resulting regularized estimator, as the global minimizer, under various prediction and variable selection losses, as well as the oracle risk inequalities of the hard-thresholded estimator followed by a further $L_2$-regularization. The risk properties exhibit interesting shrinkage effects under both estimation and prediction losses. We identify the optimal choice of the ridge parameter, which is shown to have simultaneous advantages to both the $L_2$-loss and prediction loss. These new results and phenomena are evidenced by simulation and real data examples.

preprint2016arXiv

Innovated scalable efficient estimation in ultra-large Gaussian graphical models

Large-scale precision matrix estimation is of fundamental importance yet challenging in many contemporary applications for recovering Gaussian graphical models. In this paper, we suggest a new approach of innovated scalable efficient estimation (ISEE) for estimating large precision matrix. Motivated by the innovated transformation, we convert the original problem into that of large covariance matrix estimation. The suggested method combines the strengths of recent advances in high-dimensional sparse modeling and large covariance matrix estimation. Compared to existing approaches, our method is scalable and can deal with much larger precision matrices with simple tuning. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish that this procedure can recover the underlying graphical structure with significant probability and provide efficient estimation of link strengths. Both computational and theoretical advantages of the procedure are evidenced through simulation and real data examples.

preprint2016arXiv

Interaction pursuit in high-dimensional multi-response regression via distance correlation

Feature interactions can contribute to a large proportion of variation in many prediction models. In the era of big data, the coexistence of high dimensionality in both responses and covariates poses unprecedented challenges in identifying important interactions. In this paper, we suggest a two-stage interaction identification method, called the interaction pursuit via distance correlation (IPDC), in the setting of high-dimensional multi-response interaction models that exploits feature screening applied to transformed variables with distance correlation followed by feature selection. Such a procedure is computationally efficient, generally applicable beyond the heredity assumption, and effective even when the number of responses diverges with the sample size. Under mild regularity conditions, we show that this method enjoys nice theoretical properties including the sure screening property, support union recovery, and oracle inequalities in prediction and estimation for both interactions and main effects. The advantages of our method are supported by several simulation studies and real data analysis.

preprint2016arXiv

Interaction Pursuit with Feature Screening and Selection

Understanding how features interact with each other is of paramount importance in many scientific discoveries and contemporary applications. Yet interaction identification becomes challenging even for a moderate number of covariates. In this paper, we suggest an efficient and flexible procedure, called the interaction pursuit (IP), for interaction identification in ultra-high dimensions. The suggested method first reduces the number of interactions and main effects to a moderate scale by a new feature screening approach, and then selects important interactions and main effects in the reduced feature space using regularization methods. Compared to existing approaches, our method screens interactions separately from main effects and thus can be more effective in interaction screening. Under a fairly general framework, we establish that for both interactions and main effects, the method enjoys the sure screening property in screening and oracle inequalities in selection. Our method and theoretical results are supported by several simulation and real data examples.

preprint2016arXiv

Tuning parameter selection in high dimensional penalized likelihood

Determining how to appropriately select the tuning parameter is essential in penalized likelihood methods for high-dimensional data analysis. We examine this problem in the setting of penalized likelihood methods for generalized linear models, where the dimensionality of covariates p is allowed to increase exponentially with the sample size n. We propose to select the tuning parameter by optimizing the generalized information criterion (GIC) with an appropriate model complexity penalty. To ensure that we consistently identify the true model, a range for the model complexity penalty is identified in GIC. We find that this model complexity penalty should diverge at the rate of some power of $\log p$ depending on the tail probability behavior of the response variables. This reveals that using the AIC or BIC to select the tuning parameter may not be adequate for consistently identifying the true model. Based on our theoretical study, we propose a uniform choice of the model complexity penalty and show that the proposed approach consistently identifies the true model among candidate models with asymptotic probability one. We justify the performance of the proposed procedure by numerical simulations and a gene expression data analysis.

preprint2015arXiv

Functional additive regression

We suggest a new method, called Functional Additive Regression, or FAR, for efficiently performing high-dimensional functional regression. FAR extends the usual linear regression model involving a functional predictor, $X(t)$, and a scalar response, $Y$, in two key respects. First, FAR uses a penalized least squares optimization approach to efficiently deal with high-dimensional problems involving a large number of functional predictors. Second, FAR extends beyond the standard linear regression setting to fit general nonlinear additive models. We demonstrate that FAR can be implemented with a wide range of penalty functions using a highly efficient coordinate descent algorithm. Theoretical results are developed which provide motivation for the FAR optimization criterion. Finally, we show through simulations and two real data sets that FAR can significantly outperform competing methods.

preprint2015arXiv

Functional response additive model estimation with online virtual stock markets

While functional regression models have received increasing attention recently, most existing approaches assume both a linear relationship and a scalar response variable. We suggest a new method, "Functional Response Additive Model Estimation" (FRAME), which extends the usual linear regression model to situations involving both functional predictors, $X_j(t)$, scalar predictors, $Z_k$, and functional responses, $Y(s)$. Our approach uses a penalized least squares optimization criterion to automatically perform variable selection in situations involving multiple functional and scalar predictors. In addition, our method uses an efficient coordinate descent algorithm to fit general nonlinear additive relationships between the predictors and response. We develop our model for novel forecasting challenges in the entertainment industry. In particular, we set out to model the decay rate of demand for Hollywood movies using the predictive power of online virtual stock markets (VSMs). VSMs are online communities that, in a market-like fashion, gather the crowds' prediction about demand for a particular product. Our fully functional model captures the pattern of pre-release VSM trading prices and provides superior predictive accuracy of a movie's post-release demand in comparison to traditional methods. In addition, we propose graphical tools which give a glimpse into the causal relationship between market behavior and box office revenue patterns, and hence provide valuable insight to movie decision makers.

preprint2015arXiv

Innovated interaction screening for high-dimensional nonlinear classification

This paper is concerned with the problems of interaction screening and nonlinear classification in a high-dimensional setting. We propose a two-step procedure, IIS-SQDA, where in the first step an innovated interaction screening (IIS) approach based on transforming the original $p$-dimensional feature vector is proposed, and in the second step a sparse quadratic discriminant analysis (SQDA) is proposed for further selecting important interactions and main effects and simultaneously conducting classification. Our IIS approach screens important interactions by examining only $p$ features instead of all two-way interactions of order $O(p^2)$. Our theory shows that the proposed method enjoys sure screening property in interaction selection in the high-dimensional setting of $p$ growing exponentially with the sample size. In the selection and classification step, we establish a sparse inequality on the estimated coefficient vector for QDA and prove that the classification error of our procedure can be upper-bounded by the oracle classification error plus some smaller order term. Extensive simulation studies and real data analysis show that our proposal compares favorably with existing methods in interaction selection and high-dimensional classification.

preprint2014arXiv

Adaptive robust variable selection

Heavy-tailed high-dimensional data are commonly encountered in various scientific fields and pose great challenges to modern statistical analysis. A natural procedure to address this problem is to use penalized quantile regression with weighted $L_1$-penalty, called weighted robust Lasso (WR-Lasso), in which weights are introduced to ameliorate the bias problem induced by the $L_1$-penalty. In the ultra-high dimensional setting, where the dimensionality can grow exponentially with the sample size, we investigate the model selection oracle property and establish the asymptotic normality of the WR-Lasso. We show that only mild conditions on the model error distribution are needed. Our theoretical results also reveal that adaptive choice of the weight vector is essential for the WR-Lasso to enjoy these nice asymptotic properties. To make the WR-Lasso practically feasible, we propose a two-step procedure, called adaptive robust Lasso (AR-Lasso), in which the weight vector in the second step is constructed based on the $L_1$-penalized quantile regression estimate from the first step. This two-step procedure is justified theoretically to possess the oracle property and the asymptotic normality. Numerical studies demonstrate the favorable finite-sample performance of the AR-Lasso.

preprint2013arXiv

Optimal classification in sparse Gaussian graphic model

Consider a two-class classification problem where the number of features is much larger than the sample size. The features are masked by Gaussian noise with mean zero and covariance matrix $Σ$, where the precision matrix $Ω=Σ^{-1}$ is unknown but is presumably sparse. The useful features, also unknown, are sparse and each contributes weakly (i.e., rare and weak) to the classification decision. By obtaining a reasonably good estimate of $Ω$, we formulate the setting as a linear regression model. We propose a two-stage classification method where we first select features by the method of Innovated Thresholding (IT), and then use the retained features and Fisher's LDA for classification. In this approach, a crucial problem is how to set the threshold of IT. We approach this problem by adapting the recent innovation of Higher Criticism Thresholding (HCT). We find that when useful features are rare and weak, the limiting behavior of HCT is essentially just as good as the limiting behavior of ideal threshold, the threshold one would choose if the underlying distribution of the signals is known (if only). Somewhat surprisingly, when $Ω$ is sufficiently sparse, its off-diagonal coordinates usually do not have a major influence over the classification decision. Compared to recent work in the case where $Ω$ is the identity matrix [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 105 (2008) 14790-14795; Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. Ser. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 367 (2009) 4449-4470], the current setting is much more general, which needs a new approach and much more sophisticated analysis. One key component of the analysis is the intimate relationship between HCT and Fisher's separation. Another key component is the tight large-deviation bounds for empirical processes for data with unconventional correlation structures, where graph theory on vertex coloring plays an important role.

preprint2012arXiv

Variable selection in linear mixed effects models

This paper is concerned with the selection and estimation of fixed and random effects in linear mixed effects models. We propose a class of nonconcave penalized profile likelihood methods for selecting and estimating important fixed effects. To overcome the difficulty of unknown covariance matrix of random effects, we propose to use a proxy matrix in the penalized profile likelihood. We establish conditions on the choice of the proxy matrix and show that the proposed procedure enjoys the model selection consistency where the number of fixed effects is allowed to grow exponentially with the sample size. We further propose a group variable selection strategy to simultaneously select and estimate important random effects, where the unknown covariance matrix of random effects is replaced with a proxy matrix. We prove that, with the proxy matrix appropriately chosen, the proposed procedure can identify all true random effects with asymptotic probability one, where the dimension of random effects vector is allowed to increase exponentially with the sample size. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedures. We further illustrate the proposed procedures via a real data example.

preprint2010arXiv

Estimation in additive models with highly or nonhighly correlated covariates

Motivated by normalizing DNA microarray data and by predicting the interest rates, we explore nonparametric estimation of additive models with highly correlated covariates. We introduce two novel approaches for estimating the additive components, integration estimation and pooled backfitting estimation. The former is designed for highly correlated covariates, and the latter is useful for nonhighly correlated covariates. Asymptotic normalities of the proposed estimators are established. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate finite sample behaviors of the proposed estimators, and real data examples are given to illustrate the value of the methodology.