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Yang Xu

Yang Xu contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

3 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

AGPO: Asymmetric Group Policy Optimization for Verifiable Reasoning and Search Ads Relevance at JD

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has demonstrated notable success in enhancing the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs). However, recent studies reveal that while current RLVR methods improve sampling efficiency towards correct paths, they do not elicit fundamentally new reasoning patterns. Instead, the reasoning capability boundary of trained models often narrows compared to their base models, with base models achieving higher coverage at large sample sizes. In this work, we propose Asymmetric Group Policy Optimization (AGPO) to counteract this boundary shrinkage. AGPO adopts a negative-dominant reinforcement strategy to suppress incorrect reasoning paths, maintaining the base model's exploration capacity. For positive reinforcement, AGPO adopts a group advantage mechanism, which scales positive updates based on intra-group variance, allowing the model to focus on rare correct paths while suppressing updates from trivial paths. Our experiments on five mathematical benchmarks demonstrate that AGPO achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while consistently improving pass@$k$ performance at scale. In a large-scale industrial application for search ads relevance optimization, AGPO effectively enhances the quality of the data annotation, leading to substantial performance gains in downstream student models.

preprint2026arXiv

Online Bayesian Calibration under Gradual and Abrupt System Changes

Bayesian model calibration is central to digital twins and computer experiments, as it aligns model outputs with field observations by estimating calibration parameters and correcting systematic model bias. Classical Bayesian calibration introduces latent parameters and a discrepancy function to model bias, but suffers from parameter--discrepancy confounding and is typically formulated as an offline procedure under a stationary data-generating assumption. These limitations are restrictive in modern digital twin applications, where systems evolve over time and may exhibit gradual drift and abrupt regime shifts. While data assimilation methods enable sequential updates, they generally do not explicitly model systematic bias and are less effective under abrupt changes. We propose Bayesian Recursive Projected Calibration (BRPC), an online Bayesian calibration framework for streaming data under simulator mismatch and nonstationarity. BRPC extends projected calibration to the online setting by separating a discrepancy-free particle update for calibration parameters from a conditional Gaussian process update for discrepancy, preserving identifiability while enabling bias-aware adaptation under gradual system evolution. To handle abrupt changes, BRPC is integrated with restart mechanisms that detect regime shifts and reset the calibration process. We establish theoretical guarantees for both components, including tracking performance under gradual evolution and false-alarm and detection behavior for restart mechanisms. Empirical studies on synthetic and plant-simulation benchmarks show that BRPC improves calibration accuracy under gradual changes, while restart-augmented BRPC further improves robustness and predictive performance under abrupt regime shifts compared to sliding-window Bayesian calibration and data assimilation baselines.

preprint2026arXiv

Towards Reliable LLM Evaluation: Correcting the Winner's Curse in Adaptive Benchmarking

Adaptive prompt and program search makes LLM evaluation selection-sensitive. Once benchmark items are reused inside tuning, the observed winner's score need not estimate the fresh-data performance of the full tune-then-deploy procedure. We study inference for this procedure-level target under explicit tuning budgets. We propose SIREN, a selection-aware repeated-split reporting protocol that freezes the post-search shortlist, separates splitwise selection from held-out evaluation, and uses an item-level Gaussian multiplier bootstrap for uncertainty quantification. In a fixed-shortlist regime with smooth stabilized selection, the estimator admits a first-order item-level representation, and the bootstrap yields valid simultaneous inference on a finite budget grid. This supports confidence intervals for procedure-performance curves and pre-specified equal-budget and cross-budget comparisons. Controlled simulations and MMLU-Pro tuning experiments show that winner-based reporting can be optimistic and can change deployment conclusions, while SIREN remains close to the finite-sample reporting target.