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Tomaso Aste

Tomaso Aste contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Published work

12 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Compositional Sparsity as an Inductive Bias for Neural Architecture Design

Identifying the structural priors that enable Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to overcome the curse of dimensionality is a fundamental challenge in machine learning theory. Existing literature suggests that effective high-dimensional learning is driven by compositional sparsity, where target functions decompose into constituents supported on low-dimensional variable subsets. To investigate this hypothesis, we combine Information Filtering Networks (IFNs), which extract sparse dependency structures via constrained information maximisation, with Homological Neural Networks (HNNs), which map the inferred topology into fixed-wiring sparse neural graphs. We formalise the design principles underlying this construction and present an interpretable pipeline in which abstraction emerges through hierarchical composition. HNNs are orders of magnitude sparser than standard DNNs and require only minimal hyperparameter tuning. On synthetic tasks with known sparse hierarchies, HNNs recover the underlying compositional structure and remain stable in regimes where dense alternatives degrade as dimensionality increases. Across a broad suite of real-world datasets, HNNs consistently match or outperform dense baselines while using far fewer parameters, exhibiting lower variance and showing reduced sensitivity to hyperparameters.

preprint2026arXiv

Graph Regularized PCA

High-dimensional data often exhibit dependencies among variables that violate the isotropic-noise assumption under which principal component analysis (PCA) is optimal. For cases where the noise is not independent and identically distributed across features (i.e., the covariance is not spherical) we introduce Graph Regularized PCA (GR-PCA). It is a graph-based regularization of PCA that incorporates the dependency structure of the data features by learning a sparse precision graph and biasing loadings toward the low-frequency Fourier modes of the corresponding graph Laplacian. Consequently, high-frequency signals are suppressed, while graph-coherent low-frequency ones are preserved, yielding interpretable principal components aligned with conditional relationships. We evaluate GR-PCA on synthetic data spanning diverse graph topologies, signal-to-noise ratios, and sparsity levels. Compared to mainstream alternatives, it concentrates variance on the intended support, produces loadings with lower graph-Laplacian energy, and remains competitive in out-of-sample reconstruction. When high-frequency signals are present, the graph Laplacian penalty prevents overfitting, reducing the reconstruction accuracy but improving structural fidelity. The advantage over PCA is most pronounced when high-frequency signals are graph-correlated, whereas PCA remains competitive when such signals are nearly rotationally invariant. The procedure is simple to implement, modular with respect to the precision estimator, and scalable, providing a practical route to structure-aware dimensionality reduction that improves structural fidelity without sacrificing predictive performance.

preprint2022arXiv

Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Inverse Covariance Clustering

Market conditions change continuously. However, in portfolio's investment strategies, it is hard to account for this intrinsic non-stationarity. In this paper, we propose to address this issue by using the Inverse Covariance Clustering (ICC) method to identify inherent market states and then integrate such states into a dynamic portfolio optimization process. Extensive experiments across three different markets, NASDAQ, FTSE and HS300, over a period of ten years, demonstrate the advantages of our proposed algorithm, termed Inverse Covariance Clustering-Portfolio Optimization (ICC-PO). The core of the ICC-PO methodology concerns the identification and clustering of market states from the analytics of past data and the forecasting of the future market state. It is therefore agnostic to the specific portfolio optimization method of choice. By applying the same portfolio optimization technique on a ICC temporal cluster, instead of the whole train period, we show that one can generate portfolios with substantially higher Sharpe Ratios, which are statistically more robust and resilient with great reductions in maximum loss in extreme situations. This is shown to be consistent across markets, periods, optimization methods and selection of portfolio assets.

preprint2022arXiv

Heterogenous criticality in high frequency finance: a phase transition in flash crashes

Flash crashes in financial markets have become increasingly important attracting attention from financial regulators, market makers as well as from the media and the broader audience. Systemic risk and propagation of shocks in financial markets is also a topic of great relevance that attracted increasing attention in recent years. In the present work we bridge the gap between these two topics with an in-depth investigation of the systemic risk structure of co-crashes in high frequency trading. We find that large co-crashes are systemic in their nature and differ from small crashes. We demonstrate that there is a phase transition between co-crashes of small and large sizes, where the former involves mostly illiquid stocks while large and liquid stocks are the most represented and central in the latter. This suggests that systemic effects and shock propagation might be triggered by simultaneous withdrawals or movement of liquidity by HFTs, arbitrageurs and market makers with cross-asset exposures.

preprint2022arXiv

Sparsification and Filtering for Spatial-temporal GNN in Multivariate Time-series

We propose an end-to-end architecture for multivariate time-series prediction that integrates a spatial-temporal graph neural network with a matrix filtering module. This module generates filtered (inverse) correlation graphs from multivariate time series before inputting them into a GNN. In contrast with existing sparsification methods adopted in graph neural network, our model explicitly leverage time-series filtering to overcome the low signal-to-noise ratio typical of complex systems data. We present a set of experiments, where we predict future sales from a synthetic time-series sales dataset. The proposed spatial-temporal graph neural network displays superior performances with respect to baseline approaches, with no graphical information, and with fully connected, disconnected graphs and unfiltered graphs.

preprint2021arXiv

Sector Neutral Portfolios: Long memory motifs persistence in market structure dynamics

We study soft persistence (existence in subsequent temporal layers of motifs from the initial layer) of motif structures in Triangulated Maximally Filtered Graphs (TMFG) generated from time-varying Kendall correlation matrices computed from stock prices log-returns over rolling windows with exponential smoothing. We observe long-memory processes in these structures in the form of power law decays in the number of persistent motifs. The decays then transition to a plateau regime with a power-law decay with smaller exponent. We demonstrate that identifying persistent motifs allows for forecasting and applications to portfolio diversification. Balanced portfolios are often constructed from the analysis of historic correlations, however not all past correlations are persistently reflected into the future. Sector neutrality has also been a central theme in portfolio diversification and systemic risk. We present an unsupervised technique to identify persistently correlated sets of stocks. These are empirically found to identify sectors driven by strong fundamentals. Applications of these findings are tested in two distinct ways on four different markets, resulting in significant reduction in portfolio volatility. A persistence-based measure for portfolio allocation is proposed and shown to outperform volatility weighting when tested out of sample.

preprint2020arXiv

Market structure dynamics during COVID-19 outbreak

In this note, we discuss the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak from the perspective of the market-structure. We observe that the US market-structure has dramatically changed during the past four weeks and that the level of change has followed the number of infected cases reported in the USA. Presently, market-structure resembles most closely the structure during the middle of the 2008 crisis but there are signs that it may be starting to evolve into a new structure altogether. This is the first article of a series where we will be analyzing and discussing market-structure as it evolves to a state of further instability or, more optimistically, stabilization and recovery.

preprint2020arXiv

Simplicial persistence of financial markets: filtering, generative processes and portfolio risk

We introduce simplicial persistence, a measure of time evolution of network motifs in subsequent temporal layers. We observe long memory in the evolution of structures from correlation filtering, with a two regime power law decay in the number of persistent simplicial complexes. Null models of the underlying time series are tested to investigate properties of the generative process and its evolutional constraints. Networks are generated with both TMFG filtering technique and thresholding showing that embedding-based filtering methods (TMFG) are able to identify higher order structures throughout the market sample, where thresholding methods fail. The decay exponents of these long memory processes are used to characterise financial markets based on their stage of development and liquidity. We find that more liquid markets tend to have a slower persistence decay. This is in contrast with the common understanding that developed markets are more random. We find that they are indeed less predictable for what concerns the dynamics of each single variable but they are more predictable for what concerns the collective evolution of the variables. This could imply higher fragility to systemic shocks.

preprint2020arXiv

The cost of Bitcoin mining has never really increased

The Bitcoin network is burning a large amount of energy for mining. In this paper we estimate the lower bound for the global energy cost for a period of ten years from 2010, taking into account changing oil costs, improvements in hashing technologies and hashing activity. Despite a ten-billion-fold increase in hashing activity and a ten-million-fold increase in total energy consumption, we find the cost relative to the volume of transactions has not increased nor decreased since 2010. This is consistent with the perspective that, in order to keep a the Blockchain system secure from double spending attacks, the proof or work must cost a sizable fraction of the value that can be transferred through the network. We estimate that in the Bitcoin network this fraction is of the order of 1%.

preprint2020arXiv

Wisdom of Crowds Detects COVID-19 Severity Ahead of Officially Available Data

During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation between geolocated Tweet Intensity of initial COVID-19 related tweet at the beginning of the pandemic across Italian, Spanish and USA regions and mortality in the region a month later. We find significant proportionality between early social media reaction and the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths almost a month later. Our findings suggest that "the crowds" perceived the risk correctly. This is one of the few examples where the "wisdom of crowds" can be quantified and applied in practice. This can be used to create real-time alert systems that could be of help for crisis-management and intervention, especially in developing countries. Such systems could contribute to inform fast-response policy making at early stages of a crisis.

preprint2019arXiv

A Decentralised Digital Identity Architecture

Current architectures to validate, certify, and manage identity are based on centralised, top-down approaches that rely on trusted authorities and third-party operators. We approach the problem of digital identity starting from a human rights perspective, with a primary focus on identity systems in the developed world. We assert that individual persons must be allowed to manage their personal information in a multitude of different ways in different contexts and that to do so, each individual must be able to create multiple unrelated identities. Therefore, we first define a set of fundamental constraints that digital identity systems must satisfy to preserve and promote privacy as required for individual autonomy. With these constraints in mind, we then propose a decentralised, standards-based approach, using a combination of distributed ledger technology and thoughtful regulation, to facilitate many-to-many relationships among providers of key services. Our proposal for digital identity differs from others in its approach to trust in that we do not seek to bind credentials to each other or to a mutually trusted authority to achieve strong non-transferability. Because the system does not implicitly encourage its users to maintain a single aggregated identity that can potentially be constrained or reconstructed against their interests, individuals and organisations are free to embrace the system and share in its benefits.

preprint2010arXiv

Combining tomographic imaging and DEM simulations to investigate the structure of experimental sphere packings

We combine advanced image reconstruction techniques from computed X-ray micro tomography (XCT) with state-of-the-art discrete element method simulations (DEM) to study granular materials. This "virtual-laboratory" platform allows us to access quantities, such as frictional forces, which would be otherwise experimentally immeasurable.