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Thomas Kunz

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Published work

6 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Context, Reasoning, and Hierarchy: A Cost-Performance Study of Compound LLM Agent Design in an Adversarial POMDP

Deploying compound LLM agents in adversarial, partially observable sequential environments requires navigating several design dimensions: (1) what the agent sees, (2) how it reasons, and (3) how tasks are decomposed across components. Yet practitioners lack guidance on which design choices improve performance versus merely increase inference costs. We present a controlled study of compound LLM agent design in CybORG CAGE-2, a cyber defense environment modeled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Reward is non-positive, so all configurations operate in a failure-mitigation mode. Our evaluation spans five model families, six models, and twelve configurations (3,475 episodes) with token-level cost accounting. We vary context representation (raw observations vs. a deterministic state-tracking layer with compressed history), deliberation (self-questioning, self-critique, and self-improvement tools, with optional chain-of-thought prompting), and hierarchical decomposition (monolithic ReAct vs. delegation to specialized sub-agents). We find that: (1) Programmatic state abstraction delivers the largest returns per token spent (RPTS), improving mean return by up to 76% over raw observations. (2) Distributing deliberation tools across a hierarchy degrades performance relative to hierarchy alone for all five model families, reaching up to 3.4$\times$ worse mean return while using 1.8-2.7$\times$ more tokens. We call this destructive pattern a deliberation cascade. (3) Hierarchical decomposition without deliberation achieves the best absolute performance for most models, and context engineering is generally more cost-effective than deliberation. These findings suggest a design principle for structured adversarial POMDPs: invest in programmatic infrastructure and clean task decomposition rather than deeper per-agent reasoning, as these strategies can interfere when combined.

preprint2026arXiv

FORGE: Self-Evolving Agent Memory With No Weight Updates via Population Broadcast

Can LLM agents improve decision-making through self-generated memory without gradient updates? We propose FORGE (Failure-Optimized Reflective Graduation and Evolution), a staged, population-based protocol that evolves prompt-injected natural-language memory for hierarchical ReAct agents. FORGE wraps a Reflexion-style inner loop, where a dedicated reflection agent (using the same underlying LLM, no distillation from a stronger model) converts failed trajectories into reusable knowledge artifacts: textual heuristics (Rules), few-shot demonstrations (Examples), or both (Mixed), with an outer loop that propagates the best-performing instance's memory to the population between stages and freezes converged instances via a graduation criterion. We evaluate on CybORG CAGE-2, a stochastic network-defense POMDP at a 30-step horizon against the B-line attacker, where all four tested LLM families (Gemini-2.5-Flash-Lite, Grok-4-Fast, Llama-4-Maverick, Qwen3-235B) exhibit strongly negative, heavy-tailed zero-shot rewards. Compared against both a zero-shot baseline and a Reflexion baseline (isolated single-stream learning), FORGE improves average evaluation return by 1.7-7.7$\times$ over zero-shot and by 29-72% over Reflexion in all 12 model-representation conditions, reducing major-failure rates (below $-100$) to as low as $\sim$1%. We find that (1) population broadcast is critical mechanism, with a no-graduation ablation confirming that broadcast carries the performance gains while graduation primarily saves compute; (2) Examples achieves the strongest returns for three of four models, Rules offers the best cost-reliability profile with $\sim$40% fewer tokens; and (3) weaker baseline models benefit disproportionately, suggesting FORGE may mitigate capability gaps rather than amplify strong models. All evidence is confined to CAGE-2 B-line; cross-family findings are directional evidence.

preprint2015arXiv

A Unified Residential Energy Cost Optimization Model for Smart Grid - Significance and Challenge

This article addresses the residential energy cost optimization problem in smart grid. To date, most of the previous research only consider a partial aspect of the cost optimization problem. As a result, they fail to analyze scenarios when the interconnected components along with their properties have to be considered simultaneously. The proposed model combines these partial models into a single unified cost optimization model. Therefore, it is able to analyze scenarios which are closer to practical implementation. Furthermore, it is useful to analyze the behavior of a population (e.g., smart buildings, smart cities, etc.) and properties of the components for specific scenarios (e.g., the impact of aggregate storage capacity, etc.). It allows energy trading in microgrid which introduces a cost fairness problem. It ensures Pareto optimality among the households which guarantees that no household will be worse off to improve the cost of others. Results show that it can maintain the user preferences and can react to a demand response program by rescheduling the household loads and sources. Finally, the paper addresses the challenge of the computational complexity of the proposed model, showing that solution time increases exponentially with the problem size and proposes possible approaches to solve this.

preprint2015arXiv

Energy-Efficient Broadcasting for Cross Wireless Ad-Hoc Networks

In this paper, we propose solutions for the energy-efficient broadcasting over cross networks, where N nodes are located on two perpendicular lines. Our solutions consist of an algorithm which finds the optimal range assignment in polynomial time (O(N^12)), a near-optimal algorithm with linear complexity (O(N)), and a distributed algorithm with complexity O(1). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study presenting an optimal solution for the minimum-energy broadcasting problem for a 2-D network (with cross configuration). We compare our algorithms with the broadcast incremental power (BIP) algorithm, one of the most commonly used methods for solving this problem with complexity O(N^2). We demonstrate that our near-optimal algorithm outperforms BIP, and that the distributed algorithm performs close to it. Moreover, the proposed distributed algorithm can be used for more general two-dimensional networks, where the nodes are located on a grid consisting of perpendicular line-segments. The performance of the proposed near-optimal and distributed algorithms tend to be closer to the optimal solution for larger networks.

preprint2013arXiv

Optical Flow Sensing and the Inverse Perception Problem for Flying Bats

The movements of birds, bats, and other flying species are governed by complex sensorimotor systems that allow the animals to react to stationary environmental features as well as to wind disturbances, other animals in nearby airspace, and a wide variety of unexpected challenges. The paper and talk will describe research that analyzes the three-dimensional trajectories of bats flying in a habitat in Texas. The trajectories are computed with stereoscopic methods using data from synchronous thermal videos that were recorded with high temporal and spatial resolution from three viewpoints. Following our previously reported work, we examine the possibility that bat trajectories in this habitat are governed by optical flow sensing that interpolates periodic distance measurements from echolocation. Using an idealized geometry of bat eyes, we introduce the concept of time-to-transit, and recall some research that suggests that this quantity is computed by the animals' visual cortex. Several steering control laws based on time-to-transit are proposed for an idealized flight model, and it is shown that these can be used to replicate the observed flight of what we identify as typical bats. Although the vision-based motion control laws we propose and the protocols for switching between them are quite simple, some of the trajectories that have been synthesized are qualitatively bat-like. Examination of the control protocols that generate these trajectories suggests that bat motions are governed both by their reactions to a subset of key feature points as well by their memories of where these feature points are located.

preprint2012arXiv

Low-Complexity Energy-Efficient Broadcasting in One-Dimensional Wireless Networks

In this paper, we investigate the transmission range assignment for N wireless nodes located on a line (a linear wireless network) for broadcasting data from one specific node to all the nodes in the network with minimum energy. Our goal is to find a solution that has low complexity and yet performs close to optimal. We propose an algorithm for finding the optimal assignment (which results in the minimum energy consumption) with complexity O(N^2). An approximation algorithm with complexity O(N) is also proposed. It is shown that, for networks with uniformly distributed nodes, the linear-time approximate solution obtained by this algorithm on average performs practically identical to the optimal assignment. Both the optimal and the suboptimal algorithms require the full knowledge of the network topology and are thus centralized. We also propose a distributed algorithm of negligible complexity, i.e., with complexity O(1), which only requires the knowledge of the adjacent neighbors at each wireless node. Our simulations demonstrate that the distributed solution on average performs almost as good as the optimal one for networks with uniformly distributed nodes.