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Thomas Hartvigsen

Thomas Hartvigsen contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Computation and Language Computer Vision cs.CY

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preprint2026arXiv

BraVE: Offline Reinforcement Learning for Discrete Combinatorial Action Spaces

Offline reinforcement learning in high-dimensional, discrete action spaces is challenging due to the exponential scaling of the joint action space with the number of sub-actions and the complexity of modeling sub-action dependencies. Existing methods either exhaustively evaluate the action space, making them computationally infeasible, or factorize Q-values, failing to represent joint sub-action effects. We propose Branch Value Estimation (BraVE), a value-based method that uses tree-structured action traversal to evaluate a linear number of joint actions while preserving dependency structure. BraVE outperforms prior offline RL methods by up to $20\times$ in environments with over four million actions.

preprint2026arXiv

Can Language Models Identify Side Effects of Breast Cancer Radiation Treatments?

Accurately communicating the side effects of cancer treatments to cancer survivors is critical, particularly in settings such as informed consent, where clinicians must clearly and comprehensively convey potential treatment toxicities. However, this task remains challenging due to clinical knowledge deficits about adverse treatment effects and fragmentation across electronic health record (EHR) systems. Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to assist in this task, though their reliability in oncology survivorship contexts remains poorly understood. We present a deployment-oriented stress-testing framework for evaluating LLM-generated radiation side effect lists in breast cancer treatment and survivorship care. Using 21 breast cancer patient profiles, we construct paired patient clinical scenarios that differ only in radiotherapy regimens to evaluate seven instruction-tuned LLMs under multiple prompting regimes. We then compare LLM outputs to a clinician-curated reference derived from informed consent documents at two major academic medical centers and developed by a team including more than seven breast radiation oncologists. The reference maps radiation dose-fractionation, fields, and locations to associated toxicities, broken down by frequency and temporal onset. Across models, we reveal sensitivity to minor documentation changes, trade-offs between precision and recall, and systematic under-recall of rare and long-term side effects. When used alone, constraints on the number of side effects generated reduce precision, and grounding outputs in clinician-curated side effect lists substantially improves reliability and robustness. These findings highlight important limitations of LLM use in oncology and suggest practical design choices for safer and more informative survivorship-focused applications.

preprint2026arXiv

LEAF: A Living Benchmark for Event-Augmented Forecasting

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to forecasting. To evaluate this capability while mitigating pre-training data contamination, several living benchmarks have been proposed. However, existing benchmarks either lack the multidimensional events essential for accurate forecasting due to data scarcity, or focus on relatively closed environments. To assess the predictive capabilities of LLMs in complex, real-world scenarios, we propose LEAF, the first living benchmark for event-augmented forecasting tasks, including future event probabilities, trend and time series forecasting. LEAF utilizes a recursive retrieval agent system paired with dual-agent cross-validation to provide comprehensive and relevant auxiliary text for forecasting. Evaluating state-of-the-art proprietary and open-weight LLMs, we find that these models can leverage signals extracted from complex events to enhance predictive performance. In the stock domain, we find that LLMs achieve better performance on equities they confidently identify as more predictable. Furthermore, the events demonstrate a strong correlation with the target equities. To this end, LEAF provides a necessary, dynamically updating testbed to continuously track and drive progress in event-driven forecasting tasks.

preprint2026arXiv

Test-Time Hinting for Black-Box Vision-Language Models

Test-time scaling (TTS) methods have proven highly effective for LLMs, yet their application to vision-language models (VLMs) remains relatively underexplored. Existing VLM TTS methods largely require open-weight model access or expensive repeated sampling, and are evaluated primarily on multimodal mathematical and scientific reasoning benchmarks rather than general visual understanding tasks. In this paper, we propose Test-Time Hinting, a method that improves VLM performance via a single VLM call and requiring only black-box API access, which makes it broadly applicable to frontier closed-weight models. Our method is motivated by the observation that VLM errors tend to cluster around recurring failure patterns. We therefore train a lightweight hint generator model to predict, for a given test input, which "hint" should be prepended to the prompt, providing targeted contextual or procedural guidance that steers the VLM away from its characteristic failure modes. We show that Test-Time Hinting improves the accuracy of multiple closed-weight VLMs on natural-image VQA benchmarks and that these gains generalize to unseen benchmarks and VLMs without retraining the hint generator.

preprint2022arXiv

Stop&Hop: Early Classification of Irregular Time Series

Early classification algorithms help users react faster to their machine learning model's predictions. Early warning systems in hospitals, for example, let clinicians improve their patients' outcomes by accurately predicting infections. While early classification systems are advancing rapidly, a major gap remains: existing systems do not consider irregular time series, which have uneven and often-long gaps between their observations. Such series are notoriously pervasive in impactful domains like healthcare. We bridge this gap and study early classification of irregular time series, a new setting for early classifiers that opens doors to more real-world problems. Our solution, Stop&Hop, uses a continuous-time recurrent network to model ongoing irregular time series in real time, while an irregularity-aware halting policy, trained with reinforcement learning, predicts when to stop and classify the streaming series. By taking real-valued step sizes, the halting policy flexibly decides exactly when to stop ongoing series in real time. This way, Stop&Hop seamlessly integrates information contained in the timing of observations, a new and vital source for early classification in this setting, with the time series values to provide early classifications for irregular time series. Using four synthetic and three real-world datasets, we demonstrate that Stop&Hop consistently makes earlier and more-accurate predictions than state-of-the-art alternatives adapted to this new problem. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/thartvigsen/StopAndHop.

preprint2022arXiv

The Road to Explainability is Paved with Bias: Measuring the Fairness of Explanations

Machine learning models in safety-critical settings like healthcare are often blackboxes: they contain a large number of parameters which are not transparent to users. Post-hoc explainability methods where a simple, human-interpretable model imitates the behavior of these blackbox models are often proposed to help users trust model predictions. In this work, we audit the quality of such explanations for different protected subgroups using real data from four settings in finance, healthcare, college admissions, and the US justice system. Across two different blackbox model architectures and four popular explainability methods, we find that the approximation quality of explanation models, also known as the fidelity, differs significantly between subgroups. We also demonstrate that pairing explainability methods with recent advances in robust machine learning can improve explanation fairness in some settings. However, we highlight the importance of communicating details of non-zero fidelity gaps to users, since a single solution might not exist across all settings. Finally, we discuss the implications of unfair explanation models as a challenging and understudied problem facing the machine learning community.

preprint2022arXiv

ToxiGen: A Large-Scale Machine-Generated Dataset for Adversarial and Implicit Hate Speech Detection

Toxic language detection systems often falsely flag text that contains minority group mentions as toxic, as those groups are often the targets of online hate. Such over-reliance on spurious correlations also causes systems to struggle with detecting implicitly toxic language. To help mitigate these issues, we create ToxiGen, a new large-scale and machine-generated dataset of 274k toxic and benign statements about 13 minority groups. We develop a demonstration-based prompting framework and an adversarial classifier-in-the-loop decoding method to generate subtly toxic and benign text with a massive pretrained language model. Controlling machine generation in this way allows ToxiGen to cover implicitly toxic text at a larger scale, and about more demographic groups, than previous resources of human-written text. We conduct a human evaluation on a challenging subset of ToxiGen and find that annotators struggle to distinguish machine-generated text from human-written language. We also find that 94.5% of toxic examples are labeled as hate speech by human annotators. Using three publicly-available datasets, we show that finetuning a toxicity classifier on our data improves its performance on human-written data substantially. We also demonstrate that ToxiGen can be used to fight machine-generated toxicity as finetuning improves the classifier significantly on our evaluation subset. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/microsoft/ToxiGen.

preprint2022arXiv

TWEET-FID: An Annotated Dataset for Multiple Foodborne Illness Detection Tasks

Foodborne illness is a serious but preventable public health problem -- with delays in detecting the associated outbreaks resulting in productivity loss, expensive recalls, public safety hazards, and even loss of life. While social media is a promising source for identifying unreported foodborne illnesses, there is a dearth of labeled datasets for developing effective outbreak detection models. To accelerate the development of machine learning-based models for foodborne outbreak detection, we thus present TWEET-FID (TWEET-Foodborne Illness Detection), the first publicly available annotated dataset for multiple foodborne illness incident detection tasks. TWEET-FID collected from Twitter is annotated with three facets: tweet class, entity type, and slot type, with labels produced by experts as well as by crowdsource workers. We introduce several domain tasks leveraging these three facets: text relevance classification (TRC), entity mention detection (EMD), and slot filling (SF). We describe the end-to-end methodology for dataset design, creation, and labeling for supporting model development for these tasks. A comprehensive set of results for these tasks leveraging state-of-the-art single- and multi-task deep learning methods on the TWEET-FID dataset are provided. This dataset opens opportunities for future research in foodborne outbreak detection.

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