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Thomas Brendan Murphy

Thomas Brendan Murphy appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

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MethodologyComputationApplicationsMachine LearningNeurons and Cognition

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Published work

15 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Online Generalised Predictive Coding

This paper introduces an extension of generalised filtering for online applications. Generalised filtering refers to data assimilation schemes that jointly infer latent states, learn unknown model parameters, and estimate uncertainty in an integrated framework -- e.g., estimate state and observation noise -- at the same time (i.e., triple estimation). This framework appears across disciplines under different names, including variational Kalman-Bucy filtering in engineering, generalised predictive coding in neuroscience, and Dynamic Expectation Maximisation (DEM) in time-series analysis. Here, we specialise DEM for ``online'' data assimilation, through a separation of temporal scales. We describe the variational principles and procedures that allow one to assimilate data in a way that allows for a slow updating of parameters and precisions, which contextualise fast Bayesian belief updating about the dynamic hidden states. Using numerical studies, we demonstrate the validity of online DEM (ODEM) using a non-linear -- and potentially chaotic -- generative model, to show that the ODEM scheme can track the latent states of the generative process, even when its functional form differs fundamentally from the dynamics of the generative model. Framed from a neuro-mimetic predictive coding perspective, ODEM offers a biologically inspired solution to online inference, learning, and uncertainty estimation in dynamic environments.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Parsimonious Bayesian Factor Analysis for modelling latent structures in spectroscopy data

In recent years animal diet has been receiving increased attention, in particular examining the impact of pasture-based feeding strategies on the quality of milk and dairy products, in line with the increased prevalence of grass-fed dairy products appearing on market shelves. To date, there are limited testing methods available for the verification of grass-fed dairy therefore these products are susceptible to food fraud and adulteration. Hence statistical tools studying potential differences among milk samples coming from animals on different feeding systems are required, thus providing increased security around the authenticity of the products. Infrared spectroscopy techniques are widely used to collect data on milk samples and to predict milk related traits. While these data are routinely used to predict the composition of the macro components of milk, each spectrum provides a reservoir of unharnessed information about the sample. The interpretation of these data presents a number of challenges due to their high-dimensionality and the relationships amongst the spectral variables. In this work we propose a modification of the standard factor analysis to induce a parsimonious summary of spectroscopic data. The procedure maps the observations into a low-dimensional latent space while simultaneously clustering observed variables. The method indicates possible redundancies in the data and it helps disentangle the complex relationships among the wavelengths. A flexible Bayesian estimation procedure is proposed for model fitting, providing reasonable values for the number of latent factors and clusters. The method is applied on milk mid-infrared spectroscopy data from dairy cows on different pasture and non-pasture based diets, providing accurate modelling of the data correlation, the clustering of variables and information on differences between milk samples from cows on different diets.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Robust variable selection in the framework of classification with label noise and outliers: applications to spectroscopic data in agri-food

Classification of high-dimensional spectroscopic data is a common task in analytical chemistry. Well-established procedures like support vector machines (SVMs) and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) are the most common methods for tackling this supervised learning problem. Nonetheless, interpretation of these models remains sometimes difficult, and solutions based on feature selection are often adopted as they lead to the automatic identification of the most informative wavelengths. Unfortunately, for some delicate applications like food authenticity, mislabeled and adulterated spectra occur both in the calibration and/or validation sets, with dramatic effects on the model development, its prediction accuracy and robustness. Motivated by these issues, the present paper proposes a robust model-based method that simultaneously performs variable selection, outliers and label noise detection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal in dealing with three agri-food spectroscopic studies, where several forms of perturbations are considered. Our approach succeeds in diminishing problem complexity, identifying anomalous spectra and attaining competitive predictive accuracy considering a very low number of selected wavelengths.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Unobserved classes and extra variables in high-dimensional discriminant analysis

In supervised classification problems, the test set may contain data points belonging to classes not observed in the learning phase. Moreover, the same units in the test data may be measured on a set of additional variables recorded at a subsequent stage with respect to when the learning sample was collected. In this situation, the classifier built in the learning phase needs to adapt to handle potential unknown classes and the extra dimensions. We introduce a model-based discriminant approach, Dimension-Adaptive Mixture Discriminant Analysis (D-AMDA), which can detect unobserved classes and adapt to the increasing dimensionality. Model estimation is carried out via a full inductive approach based on an EM algorithm. The method is then embedded in a more general framework for adaptive variable selection and classification suitable for data of large dimensions. A simulation study and an artificial experiment related to classification of adulterated honey samples are used to validate the ability of the proposed framework to deal with complex situations.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Anomaly and Novelty detection for robust semi-supervised learning

Three important issues are often encountered in Supervised and Semi-Supervised Classification: class-memberships are unreliable for some training units (label noise), a proportion of observations might depart from the main structure of the data (outliers) and new groups in the test set may have not been encountered earlier in the learning phase (unobserved classes). The present work introduces a robust and adaptive Discriminant Analysis rule, capable of handling situations in which one or more of the afore-mentioned problems occur. Two EM-based classifiers are proposed: the first one that jointly exploits the training and test sets (transductive approach), and the second one that expands the parameter estimate using the test set, to complete the group structure learned from the training set (inductive approach). Experiments on synthetic and real data, artificially adulterated, are provided to underline the benefits of the proposed method.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Handling missing data in model-based clustering

Gaussian Mixture models (GMMs) are a powerful tool for clustering, classification and density estimation when clustering structures are embedded in the data. The presence of missing values can largely impact the GMMs estimation process, thus handling missing data turns out to be a crucial point in clustering, classification and density estimation. Several techniques have been developed to impute the missing values before model estimation. Among these, multiple imputation is a simple and useful general approach to handle missing data. In this paper we propose two different methods to fit Gaussian mixtures in the presence of missing data. Both methods use a variant of the Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximisation (MCEM) algorithm for data augmentation. Thus, multiple imputations are performed during the E-step, followed by the standard M-step for a given eigen-decomposed component-covariance matrix. We show that the proposed methods outperform the multiple imputation approach, both in terms of clusters identification and density estimation.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Bayesian model averaging in model-based clustering and density estimation

We propose Bayesian model averaging (BMA) as a method for postprocessing the results of model-based clustering. Given a number of competing models, appropriate model summaries are averaged, using the posterior model probabilities, instead of being taken from a single "best" model. We demonstrate the use of BMA in model-based clustering for a number of datasets. We show that BMA provides a useful summary of the clustering of observations while taking model uncertainty into account. Further, we show that BMA in conjunction with model-based clustering gives a competitive method for density estimation in a multivariate setting. Applying BMA in the model-based context is fast and can give enhanced modeling performance.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Bayesian variable selection for latent class analysis using a collapsed Gibbs sampler

Latent class analysis is used to perform model based clustering for multivariate categorical responses. Selection of the variables most relevant for clustering is an important task which can affect the quality of clustering considerably. This work considers a Bayesian approach for selecting the number of clusters and the best clustering variables. The main idea is to reformulate the problem of group and variable selection as a probabilistically driven search over a large discrete space using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This approach results in estimates of degree of relevance of each variable for clustering along with posterior probability for the number of clusters. Bayes factors can then be easily calculated, and a suitable model chosen in a principled manner. Both selection tasks are carried out simultaneously using an MCMC approach based on a collapsed Gibbs sampling method, whereby several model parameters are integrated from the model, substantially improving computational performance. Approaches for estimating posterior marginal probabilities of class membership, variable inclusion and number of groups are proposed, and post-hoc procedures for parameter and uncertainty estimation are outlined. The approach is tested on simulated and real data.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Bayesian nonparametric Plackett-Luce models for the analysis of preferences for college degree programmes

In this paper we propose a Bayesian nonparametric model for clustering partial ranking data. We start by developing a Bayesian nonparametric extension of the popular Plackett-Luce choice model that can handle an infinite number of choice items. Our framework is based on the theory of random atomic measures, with the prior specified by a completely random measure. We characterise the posterior distribution given data, and derive a simple and effective Gibbs sampler for posterior simulation. We then develop a Dirichlet process mixture extension of our model and apply it to investigate the clustering of preferences for college degree programmes amongst Irish secondary school graduates. The existence of clusters of applicants who have similar preferences for degree programmes is established and we determine that subject matter and geographical location of the third level institution characterise these clusters.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Joint Modelling of Multiple Network Views

Latent space models (LSM) for network data were introduced by Hoff et al. (2002) under the basic assumption that each node of the network has an unknown position in a D-dimensional Euclidean latent space: generally the smaller the distance between two nodes in the latent space, the greater their probability of being connected. In this paper we propose a variational Bayes approach to estimate the intractable posterior of the LSM. In many cases, different network views on the same set of nodes are available. It can therefore be useful to build a model able to jointly summarise the information given by all the network views. For this purpose, we introduce the latent space joint model (LSJM) that merges the information given by multiple network views assuming that the probability of a node being connected with other nodes in each network view is explained by a unique latent variable. This model is demonstrated on the analysis of two datasets: the excerpt of 50 girls from `Teenage Friends and Lifestyle Study' data at three time points and the Saccharomyces cerevisiae genetic and physical protein-protein interactions.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Mixed-Membership of Experts Stochastic Blockmodel

Social network analysis is the study of how links between a set of actors are formed. Typically, it is believed that links are formed in a structured manner, which may be due to, for example, political or material incentives, and which often may not be directly observable. The stochastic blockmodel represents this structure using latent groups which exhibit different connective properties, so that conditional on the group membership of two actors, the probability of a link being formed between them is represented by a connectivity matrix. The mixed membership stochastic blockmodel (MMSBM) extends this model to allow actors membership to different groups, depending on the interaction in question, providing further flexibility. Attribute information can also play an important role in explaining network formation. Network models which do not explicitly incorporate covariate information require the analyst to compare fitted network models to additional attributes in a post-hoc manner. We introduce the mixed membership of experts stochastic blockmodel, an extension to the MMSBM which incorporates covariate actor information into the existing model. The method is illustrated with application to the Lazega Lawyers dataset. Model and variable selection methods are also discussed.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

Mixture of Latent Trait Analyzers for Model-Based Clustering of Categorical Data

Model-based clustering methods for continuous data are well established and commonly used in a wide range of applications. However, model-based clustering methods for categorical data are less standard. Latent class analysis is a commonly used method for model-based clustering of binary data and/or categorical data, but due to an assumed local independence structure there may not be a correspondence between the estimated latent classes and groups in the population of interest. The mixture of latent trait analyzers model extends latent class analysis by assuming a model for the categorical response variables that depends on both a categorical latent class and a continuous latent trait variable; the discrete latent class accommodates group structure and the continuous latent trait accommodates dependence within these groups. Fitting the mixture of latent trait analyzers model is potentially difficult because the likelihood function involves an integral that cannot be evaluated analytically. We develop a variational approach for fitting the mixture of latent trait models and this provides an efficient model fitting strategy. The mixture of latent trait analyzers model is demonstrated on the analysis of data from the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) and voting in the U.S. Congress. The model is shown to yield intuitive clustering results and it gives a much better fit than either latent class analysis or latent trait analysis alone.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2012arXiv

Clustering in networks with the collapsed Stochastic Block Model

An efficient MCMC algorithm is presented to cluster the nodes of a network such that nodes with similar role in the network are clustered together. This is known as block-modelling or block-clustering. The model is the stochastic blockmodel (SBM) with block parameters integrated out. The resulting marginal distribution defines a posterior over the number of clusters and cluster memberships. Sampling from this posterior is simpler than from the original SBM as transdimensional MCMC can be avoided. The algorithm is based on the allocation sampler. It requires a prior to be placed on the number of clusters, thereby allowing the number of clusters to be directly estimated by the algorithm, rather than being given as an input parameter. Synthetic and real data are used to test the speed and accuracy of the model and algorithm, including the ability to estimate the number of clusters. The algorithm can scale to networks with up to ten thousand nodes and tens of millions of edges.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2010arXiv

Variable selection and updating in model-based discriminant analysis for high dimensional data with food authenticity applications

Food authenticity studies are concerned with determining if food samples have been correctly labeled or not. Discriminant analysis methods are an integral part of the methodology for food authentication. Motivated by food authenticity applications, a model-based discriminant analysis method that includes variable selection is presented. The discriminant analysis model is fitted in a semi-supervised manner using both labeled and unlabeled data. The method is shown to give excellent classification performance on several high-dimensional multiclass food authenticity data sets with more variables than observations. The variables selected by the proposed method provide information about which variables are meaningful for classification purposes. A headlong search strategy for variable selection is shown to be efficient in terms of computation and achieves excellent classification performance. In applications to several food authenticity data sets, our proposed method outperformed default implementations of Random Forests, AdaBoost, transductive SVMs and Bayesian Multinomial Regression by substantial margins.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2009arXiv

A mixture of experts model for rank data with applications in election studies

A voting bloc is defined to be a group of voters who have similar voting preferences. The cleavage of the Irish electorate into voting blocs is of interest. Irish elections employ a ``single transferable vote'' electoral system; under this system voters rank some or all of the electoral candidates in order of preference. These rank votes provide a rich source of preference information from which inferences about the composition of the electorate may be drawn. Additionally, the influence of social factors or covariates on the electorate composition is of interest. A mixture of experts model is a mixture model in which the model parameters are functions of covariates. A mixture of experts model for rank data is developed to provide a model-based method to cluster Irish voters into voting blocs, to examine the influence of social factors on this clustering and to examine the characteristic preferences of the voting blocs. The Benter model for rank data is employed as the family of component densities within the mixture of experts model; generalized linear model theory is employed to model the influence of covariates on the mixing proportions. Model fitting is achieved via a hybrid of the EM and MM algorithms. An example of the methodology is illustrated by examining an Irish presidential election. The existence of voting blocs in the electorate is established and it is determined that age and government satisfaction levels are important factors in influencing voting in this election.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access