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Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan

Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Machine Learning Applications Artificial Intelligence math.OC math.ST Methodology Statistics Theory

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preprint2026arXiv

On-line Learning in Tree MDPs by Treating Policies as Bandit Arms

A Tree Markov Decision Problem (T-MDP) is a finite-horizon MDP with a starting state $s_{1}$, in which every state is reachable from $s_{1}$ through exactly one state-action trajectory. T-MDPs arise naturally as abstractions of decision making in sequential games with perfect recall, against stationary opponents. We consider the problem of on-line learning in T-MDPs, both in the PAC and the regret-minimisation regimes. We show that well-known bandit algorithms -- \textsc{Lucb} and \textsc{Ucb} -- can be applied on T-MDPs by treating each policy as an arm. The apparent technical challenge in this approach is that the number of policies is exponential in the number of states. Our main innovation is in the design of confidence bounds based on data shared by the policies, so that the bandit algorithms can yet be implemented with polynomial memory and per-step computation. We obtain instance-dependent upper bounds on sample complexity and regret that sum a ``gap term'' from every terminal state, rather than every policy. Empirically, our algorithms consistently outperform available alternatives on a suite of hidden-information games.

preprint2026arXiv

Using Common Random Numbers for Simulation-based Planning with Rollouts

Simulation-based planning with rollouts is a widely-deployed technique for decision making in stochastic environments. The primary instrument of simulation-based planning is a sampling model, which is repeatedly called to generate trajectories and estimate the utilities of available actions. Among the actions thus explored, one with the maximum estimated utility is then executed. In this paper, we examine the effect of using common random numbers in the simulation process. We obtain a simple recipe for (provably) reducing variance in relative utility when simulations invoke a rollout policy beyond some depth. Experiments on synthetic tasks confirm that our scheme improves task performance. The broader significance of our innovation is apparent from two practical applications: (1) single-step lookahead planning in a pension-disbursement task, and (2) a deployment of the well-known UCT algorithm for the game of Ludo.

preprint2022arXiv

PAC Mode Estimation using PPR Martingale Confidence Sequences

We consider the problem of correctly identifying the \textit{mode} of a discrete distribution $\mathcal{P}$ with sufficiently high probability by observing a sequence of i.i.d. samples drawn from $\mathcal{P}$. This problem reduces to the estimation of a single parameter when $\mathcal{P}$ has a support set of size $K = 2$. After noting that this special case is tackled very well by prior-posterior-ratio (PPR) martingale confidence sequences \citep{waudby-ramdas-ppr}, we propose a generalisation to mode estimation, in which $\mathcal{P}$ may take $K \geq 2$ values. To begin, we show that the "one-versus-one" principle to generalise from $K = 2$ to $K \geq 2$ classes is more efficient than the "one-versus-rest" alternative. We then prove that our resulting stopping rule, denoted PPR-1v1, is asymptotically optimal (as the mistake probability is taken to $0$). PPR-1v1 is parameter-free and computationally light, and incurs significantly fewer samples than competitors even in the non-asymptotic regime. We demonstrate its gains in two practical applications of sampling: election forecasting and verification of smart contracts in blockchains.

preprint2021arXiv

An Analysis of Frame-skipping in Reinforcement Learning

In the practice of sequential decision making, agents are often designed to sense state at regular intervals of $d$ time steps, $d > 1$, ignoring state information in between sensing steps. While it is clear that this practice can reduce sensing and compute costs, recent results indicate a further benefit. On many Atari console games, reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms deliver substantially better policies when run with $d > 1$ -- in fact with $d$ even as high as $180$. In this paper, we investigate the role of the parameter $d$ in RL; $d$ is called the "frame-skip" parameter, since states in the Atari domain are images. For evaluating a fixed policy, we observe that under standard conditions, frame-skipping does not affect asymptotic consistency. Depending on other parameters, it can possibly even benefit learning. To use $d > 1$ in the control setting, one must first specify which $d$-step open-loop action sequences can be executed in between sensing steps. We focus on "action-repetition", the common restriction of this choice to $d$-length sequences of the same action. We define a task-dependent quantity called the "price of inertia", in terms of which we upper-bound the loss incurred by action-repetition. We show that this loss may be offset by the gain brought to learning by a smaller task horizon. Our analysis is supported by experiments on different tasks and learning algorithms.

preprint2020arXiv

Lower Bounds for Policy Iteration on Multi-action MDPs

Policy Iteration (PI) is a classical family of algorithms to compute an optimal policy for any given Markov Decision Problem (MDP). The basic idea in PI is to begin with some initial policy and to repeatedly update the policy to one from an improving set, until an optimal policy is reached. Different variants of PI result from the (switching) rule used for improvement. An important theoretical question is how many iterations a specified PI variant will take to terminate as a function of the number of states $n$ and the number of actions $k$ in the input MDP. While there has been considerable progress towards upper-bounding this number, there are fewer results on lower bounds. In particular, existing lower bounds primarily focus on the special case of $k = 2$ actions. We devise lower bounds for $k \geq 3$. Our main result is that a particular variant of PI can take $Ω(k^{n/2})$ iterations to terminate. We also generalise existing constructions on $2$-action MDPs to scale lower bounds by a factor of $k$ for some common deterministic variants of PI, and by $\log(k)$ for corresponding randomised variants.

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