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Researcher profile

Russell Greiner

Russell Greiner contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

ResearcherAffiliation not importedOpen to collaborate
Machine LearningComputer Visioneess.SP

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Published work

5 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

SurvivalPFN: Amortizing Survival Prediction via In-Context Bayesian Inference

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Improving ECG-based COVID-19 diagnosis and mortality predictions using pre-pandemic medical records at population-scale

Pandemic outbreaks such as COVID-19 occur unexpectedly, and need immediate action due to their potential devastating consequences on global health. Point-of-care routine assessments such as electrocardiogram (ECG), can be used to develop prediction models for identifying individuals at risk. However, there is often too little clinically-annotated medical data, especially in early phases of a pandemic, to develop accurate prediction models. In such situations, historical pre-pandemic health records can be utilized to estimate a preliminary model, which can then be fine-tuned based on limited available pandemic data. This study shows this approach -- pre-train deep learning models with pre-pandemic data -- can work effectively, by demonstrating substantial performance improvement over three different COVID-19 related diagnostic and prognostic prediction tasks. Similar transfer learning strategies can be useful for developing timely artificial intelligence solutions in future pandemic outbreaks.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Domain-shift adaptation via linear transformations

A predictor, $f_A : X \to Y$, learned with data from a source domain (A) might not be accurate on a target domain (B) when their distributions are different. Domain adaptation aims to reduce the negative effects of this distribution mismatch. Here, we analyze the case where $P_A(Y\ |\ X) \neq P_B(Y\ |\ X)$, $P_A(X) \neq P_B(X)$ but $P_A(Y) = P_B(Y)$; where there are affine transformations of $X$ that makes all distributions equivalent. We propose an approach to project the source and target domains into a lower-dimensional, common space, by (1) projecting the domains into the eigenvectors of the empirical covariance matrices of each domain, then (2) finding an orthogonal matrix that minimizes the maximum mean discrepancy between the projections of both domains. For arbitrary affine transformations, there is an inherent unidentifiability problem when performing unsupervised domain adaptation that can be alleviated in the semi-supervised case. We show the effectiveness of our approach in simulated data and in binary digit classification tasks, obtaining improvements up to 48% accuracy when correcting for the domain shift in the data.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2021arXiv

Sample Efficient Learning of Image-Based Diagnostic Classifiers Using Probabilistic Labels

Deep learning approaches often require huge datasets to achieve good generalization. This complicates its use in tasks like image-based medical diagnosis, where the small training datasets are usually insufficient to learn appropriate data representations. For such sensitive tasks it is also important to provide the confidence in the predictions. Here, we propose a way to learn and use probabilistic labels to train accurate and calibrated deep networks from relatively small datasets. We observe gains of up to 22% in the accuracy of models trained with these labels, as compared with traditional approaches, in three classification tasks: diagnosis of hip dysplasia, fatty liver, and glaucoma. The outputs of models trained with probabilistic labels are calibrated, allowing the interpretation of its predictions as proper probabilities. We anticipate this approach will apply to other tasks where few training instances are available and expert knowledge can be encoded as probabilities.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2018arXiv

Effective Ways to Build and Evaluate Individual Survival Distributions

An accurate model of a patient's individual survival distribution can help determine the appropriate treatment for terminal patients. Unfortunately, risk scores (e.g., from Cox Proportional Hazard models) do not provide survival probabilities, single-time probability models (e.g., the Gail model, predicting 5 year probability) only provide for a single time point, and standard Kaplan-Meier survival curves provide only population averages for a large class of patients meaning they are not specific to individual patients. This motivates an alternative class of tools that can learn a model which provides an individual survival distribution which gives survival probabilities across all times - such as extensions to the Cox model, Accelerated Failure Time, an extension to Random Survival Forests, and Multi-Task Logistic Regression. This paper first motivates such "individual survival distribution" (ISD) models, and explains how they differ from standard models. It then discusses ways to evaluate such models - namely Concordance, 1-Calibration, Brier score, and various versions of L1-loss - and then motivates and defines a novel approach "D-Calibration", which determines whether a model's probability estimates are meaningful. We also discuss how these measures differ, and use them to evaluate several ISD prediction tools, over a range of survival datasets.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access