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Penghao Zhao

Penghao Zhao contributes to research discovery and scholarly infrastructure.

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Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Robotics

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preprint2026arXiv

Advanced Long-term Earth System Forecasting

Reliable long-term forecasting of Earth system dynamics is fundamentally limited by instabilities in current artificial intelligence (AI) models during extended autoregressive simulations. These failures often originate from inherent spectral bias, leading to inadequate representation of critical high-frequency, small-scale processes and subsequent uncontrolled error amplification. Inspired by the nested grids in numerical models used to resolve small scales, we present TritonCast. At the core of its design is a dedicated latent dynamical core, which ensures the long-term stability of the macro-evolution at a coarse scale. An outer structure then fuses this stable trend with fine-grained local details. This design effectively mitigates the spectral bias caused by cross-scale interactions. In atmospheric science, it achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on the WeatherBench 2 benchmark while demonstrating exceptional long-term stability: executing year-long autoregressive global forecasts and completing multi-year climate simulations that span the entire available $2500$-day test period without drift. In oceanography, it extends skillful eddy forecast to $120$ days and exhibits unprecedented zero-shot cross-resolution generalization. Ablation studies reveal that this performance stems from the synergistic interplay of the architecture's core components. TritonCast thus offers a promising pathway towards a new generation of trustworthy, AI-driven simulations. This significant advance has the potential to accelerate discovery in climate and Earth system science, enabling more reliable long-term forecasting and deeper insights into complex geophysical dynamics.

preprint2026arXiv

PnP-Corrector: A Universal Correction Framework for Coupled Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Coupled spatiotemporal forecasting is important for predicting the future evolution of multiple interacting dynamical systems, such as in climate models. However, existing methods are severely constrained by the persistent bottleneck of compounding errors. In coupled systems, errors from each subsystem simulator propagate and amplify one another, a phenomenon we term Reciprocal Error Amplification, leading to a rapid collapse of long-range predictions. To address this challenge, we propose a universal framework called PnP-Corrector (Plug-and-Play Corrector). The core idea of our framework is to decouple the physical simulation from the error correction process: it freezes pre-trained physics simulation engines and exclusively trains a correction agent to proactively counteract the systematic biases emerging from the coupled system. Furthermore, we design an efficient predictive model architecture, DSLCast, to serve as the backbone of this framework. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly enhances the long-term stability and accuracy of coupled forecasting systems. For instance, in the challenging task of a 300-day global ocean-atmosphere coupled forecast, our PnP-Corrector framework reduces the prediction error of the baseline model by 29% and surpasses state-of-the-art models on several key metrics.

preprint2026arXiv

RoboAlign-R1: Distilled Multimodal Reward Alignment for Robot Video World Models

Existing robot video world models are typically trained with low-level objectives such as reconstruction and perceptual similarity, which are poorly aligned with the capabilities that matter most for robot decision making, including instruction following, manipulation success, and physical plausibility. They also suffer from error accumulation in long-horizon autoregressive prediction. We present RoboAlign-R1, a framework that combines reward-aligned post-training with stabilized long-horizon inference for robot video world models. We construct RobotWorldBench, a benchmark of 10,000 annotated video-instruction pairs collected from four robot data sources, and train a multimodal teacher judge, RoboAlign-Judge, to provide fine-grained six-dimensional evaluation of generated videos. We then distill the teacher into a lightweight student reward model for efficient reinforcement-learning-based post-training. To reduce long-horizon rollout drift, we further introduce Sliding Window Re-encoding (SWR), a training-free inference strategy that periodically refreshes the generation context. Under our in-domain evaluation protocol, RoboAlign-R1 improves the aggregate six-dimension score by 10.1% over the strongest baseline, including gains of 7.5% on Manipulation Accuracy and 4.6% on Instruction Following; these ranking improvements are further supported by an external VLM-based cross-check and a blinded human study. Meanwhile, SWR improves long-horizon prediction quality with only about 1% additional latency, yielding a 2.8% gain in SSIM and a 9.8% reduction in LPIPS. Together, these results show that reward-aligned post-training and stabilized long-horizon decoding improve task consistency, physical realism, and long-horizon prediction quality in robot video world models.

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