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Markos A. Katsoulakis

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Published work

22 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Dimension-Free Convergence of Discrete Diffusion Models: Adjoint Equations Induce the Right Space

Discrete diffusion has become a leading framework for generative modeling in various applications including language, vision, and biology. Existing convergence theory, however, exhibits fundamental limitations. KL-based analyses diverge under singular priors such as the masked distribution, while bounds in total variation (TV) depend on the state space size $S$ and become vacuous for modern language tasks, where vocabularies contain hundreds of thousands of tokens. We develop a unified adjoint-equation-based framework that establishes dimension-free convergence guarantees in any integral probability metric (IPM). To the best of our knowledge, our bounds are the first to be entirely free of $S$ and applicable to both masked and uniform priors. Importantly, our theory relies only on a single standard rate-matrix regularity assumption and is compatible with time-inhomogeneous schedules. Four novel techniques drive our improvements: working in the space of observables via adjoint equations rather than directly with probability measures, a regularity analysis that yields bounds on any IPM, a coupling argument that removes $S$-dependence under uniform transitions, and a score-marginal cancellation technique that removes $S$-dependence under masked transitions. Our framework thus sharply departs from prior analyses and avoids the shortcomings of pathspace-KL and existing TV-based approaches. Beyond convergence bounds, our framework provides a versatile toolkit for further theoretical study of discrete diffusion models.

preprint2026arXiv

ISOMORPH: A Supply Chain Digital Twin for Simulation, Dataset Generation, and Forecasting Benchmarks

Open time-series forecasting (TSF) benchmarks cover retail, energy, weather, and traffic, but supply-chain logistics remains underserved. We introduce ISOMORPH, the first public digital twin of a multi-echelon logistics network with fully interpretable, user-configurable parameters and modular topology, demand process, and control rules. The simulator advances a directed routing graph in discrete time: demand arrives at the destination, is served from stock or recorded as backlog, and triggers replenishment through the network. The state vector tracks per-node on-hand inventory with outstanding orders, in-transit shipments, and a smoothed demand estimate, so the dynamics close as a Markov chain on a tractable state space whose transition kernel acts linearly on the empirical distribution of the state. The released data reproduces the bullwhip effect at empirically consistent magnitudes, and three conservation laws encoded in the Markov chain serve as verification tools when users extend the simulator. We release datasets at two catalogue scales ($C=50$ and $C=200$) with six scenario sweeps producing 30 additional rollouts and 20 Latin-hypercube perturbations, exhibiting dynamics absent from fixed TSF benchmarks: variance amplification, cascading bottlenecks, regime shifts, and cross-channel coupling through shared macro shocks. Zero-shot evaluation of four foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, TimesFM, Lag-Llama) shows MASE values exceeding public GIFT-Eval references at low-to-moderate horizons, supporting incorporation into existing benchmarks. The same pairing produces forecast confidence bands via Latin-hypercube perturbation of demand-side knobs, forward UQ from parameter uncertainty unavailable on standard TSF datasets, demonstrating that foundation models can serve as fast surrogates for the digital twin's forward UQ. Code (MIT): https://github.com/tuhinsahai/ISOMORPH.

preprint2022arXiv

Optimizing Variational Representations of Divergences and Accelerating their Statistical Estimation

Variational representations of divergences and distances between high-dimensional probability distributions offer significant theoretical insights and practical advantages in numerous research areas. Recently, they have gained popularity in machine learning as a tractable and scalable approach for training probabilistic models and for statistically differentiating between data distributions. Their advantages include: 1) They can be estimated from data as statistical averages. 2) Such representations can leverage the ability of neural networks to efficiently approximate optimal solutions in function spaces. However, a systematic and practical approach to improving the tightness of such variational formulas, and accordingly accelerate statistical learning and estimation from data, is currently lacking. Here we develop such a methodology for building new, tighter variational representations of divergences. Our approach relies on improved objective functionals constructed via an auxiliary optimization problem. Furthermore, the calculation of the functional Hessian of objective functionals unveils the local curvature differences around the common optimal variational solution; this quantifies and orders the tightness gains between different variational representations. Finally, numerical simulations utilizing neural network optimization demonstrate that tighter representations can result in significantly faster learning and more accurate estimation of divergences in both synthetic and real datasets (of more than 1000 dimensions), often accelerated by nearly an order of magnitude.

preprint2022arXiv

Structure-preserving GANs

Generative adversarial networks (GANs), a class of distribution-learning methods based on a two-player game between a generator and a discriminator, can generally be formulated as a minmax problem based on the variational representation of a divergence between the unknown and the generated distributions. We introduce structure-preserving GANs as a data-efficient framework for learning distributions with additional structure such as group symmetry, by developing new variational representations for divergences. Our theory shows that we can reduce the discriminator space to its projection on the invariant discriminator space, using the conditional expectation with respect to the sigma-algebra associated to the underlying structure. In addition, we prove that the discriminator space reduction must be accompanied by a careful design of structured generators, as flawed designs may easily lead to a catastrophic "mode collapse" of the learned distribution. We contextualize our framework by building symmetry-preserving GANs for distributions with intrinsic group symmetry, and demonstrate that both players, namely the equivariant generator and invariant discriminator, play important but distinct roles in the learning process. Empirical experiments and ablation studies across a broad range of data sets, including real-world medical imaging, validate our theory, and show our proposed methods achieve significantly improved sample fidelity and diversity -- almost an order of magnitude measured in Fréchet Inception Distance -- especially in the small data regime.

preprint2020arXiv

Data-driven Uncertainty Quantification for Systematic Coarse-grained Models

In this work, we present methodologies for the quantification of confidence in bottom-up coarse-grained models for molecular and macromolecular systems. Coarse-graining methods have been extensively used in the past decades in order to extend the length and time scales accessible by simulation methodologies. The quantification, though, of induced errors due to the limited availability of fine-grained data is not yet established. Here, we employ rigorous statistical methods to deduce guarantees for the optimal coarse models obtained via approximations of the multi-body potential of mean force, with the relative entropy, the relative entropy rate minimization, and the force matching methods. Specifically, we present and apply statistical approaches, such as bootstrap and jackknife, to infer confidence sets for a limited number of samples, i.e., molecular configurations. Moreover, we estimate asymptotic confidence intervals assuming adequate sampling of the phase space. We demonstrate the need for non-asymptotic methods and quantify confidence sets through two applications. The first is a two-scale fast/slow diffusion process projected on the slow process. With this benchmark example, we establish the methodology for both independent and time-series data. Second, we apply these uncertainty quantification approaches on a polymeric bulk system. We consider an atomistic polyethylene melt as the prototype system for developing coarse-graining tools for macromolecular systems. For this system, we estimate the coarse-grained force field and present confidence levels with respect to the number of available microscopic data.

preprint2020arXiv

Quantification of Model Uncertainty on Path-Space via Goal-Oriented Relative Entropy

Quantifying the impact of parametric and model-form uncertainty on the predictions of stochastic models is a key challenge in many applications. Previous work has shown that the relative entropy rate is an effective tool for deriving path-space uncertainty quantification (UQ) bounds on ergodic averages. In this work we identify appropriate information-theoretic objects for a wider range of quantities of interest on path-space, such as hitting times and exponentially discounted observables, and develop the corresponding UQ bounds. In addition, our method yields tighter UQ bounds, even in cases where previous relative-entropy-based methods also apply, e.g., for ergodic averages. We illustrate these results with examples from option pricing, non-reversible diffusion processes, stochastic control, semi-Markov queueing models, and expectations and distributions of hitting times.

preprint2016arXiv

Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics

We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher Information Matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithms without additional modifications.

preprint2016arXiv

Information Criteria for quantifying loss of reversibility in parallelized KMC

Parallel Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) is a potent tool to simulate stochastic particle systems efficiently. However, despite literature on quantifying domain decomposition errors of the particle system for this class of algorithms in the short and in the long time regime, no study yet explores and quantifies the loss of time-reversibility in Parallel KMC. Inspired by concepts from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose the entropy production per unit time, or entropy production rate, given in terms of an observable and a corresponding estimator, as a metric that quantifies the loss of reversibility. Typically, this is a quantity that cannot be computed explicitly for Parallel KMC, which is why we develop a posteriori estimators that have good scaling properties with respect to the size of the system. Through these estimators, we can connect the different parameters of the scheme, such as the communication time step of the parallelization, the choice of the domain decomposition, and the computational schedule, with its performance in controlling the loss of reversibility. From this point of view, the entropy production rate can be seen both as an information criterion to compare the reversibility of different parallel schemes and as a tool to diagnose reversibility issues with a particular scheme. As a demonstration, we use Sandia Lab's SPPARKS software to compare different parallelization schemes and different domain (lattice) decompositions.

preprint2016arXiv

Path-space variational inference for non-equilibrium coarse-grained systems

In this paper, we discuss information-theoretic tools for obtaining optimized coarse-grained molecular models for both equilibrium and non-equilibrium molecular dynamics. The latter are ubiquitous in physicochemical and biological applications, where they are typically associated with coupling mechanisms, multi-physics and/or boundary conditions. In general the non-equilibrium steady states are not known explicitly as they do not necessarily have a Gibbs structure. The presented approach can compare microscopic behavior of molecular systems to parametric and non-parametric coarse-grained one using the relative entropy between distributions on the path space and setting up a corresponding path space variational inference problem. The methods can become entirely data-driven when the microscopic dynamics are replaced with corresponding correlated data in the form of time series. Furthermore, we present connections and generalizations of force matching methods in coarse-graining with path-space information methods, as well as demonstrate the enhanced transferability of information-based parameterizations to general observables due to information inequalities. We further discuss methodological connections between information-based coarse-graining of molecular systems and variational inference methods primarily developed in the machine learning community. However, we note that the work presented here addresses variational inference for correlated time series due to the focus on dynamics. The applicability of the proposed methods is demonstrated on high-dimensional stochastic processes given by Langevin, overdamped and driven Langevin dynamics of interacting particles.

preprint2015arXiv

Path-space information bounds for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis of stochastic dynamics

Uncertainty quantification is a primary challenge for reliable modeling and simulation of complex stochastic dynamics. Such problems are typically plagued with incomplete information that may enter as uncertainty in the model parameters, or even in the model itself. Furthermore, due to their dynamic nature, we need to assess the impact of these uncertainties on the transient and long-time behavior of the stochastic models and derive corresponding uncertainty bounds for observables of interest. A special class of such challenges is parametric uncertainties in the model and in particular sensitivity analysis along with the corresponding sensitivity bounds for stochastic dynamics. Moreover, sensitivity analysis can be further complicated in models with a high number of parameters that render straightforward approaches, such as gradient methods, impractical. In this paper, we derive uncertainty and sensitivity bounds for path-space observables of stochastic dynamics in terms of new goal-oriented divergences; the latter incorporate both observables and information theory objects such as the relative entropy rate. These bounds are tight, depend on the variance of the particular observable and are computable through Monte Carlo simulation. In the case of sensitivity analysis, the derived sensitivity bounds rely on the path Fisher Information Matrix, hence they depend only on local dynamics and are gradient-free. These features allow for computationally efficient implementation in systems with a high number of parameters, e.g., complex reaction networks and molecular simulations.

preprint2015arXiv

The geometry of generalized force matching in coarse-graining and related information metrics

Using the probabilistic language of conditional expectations we reformulate the force matching method for coarse-graining of molecular systems as a projection on spaces of coarse observables. A practical outcome of this probabilistic description is the link of the force matching method with thermodynamic integration. This connection provides a way to systematically construct a local mean force in order to optimally approximate the potential of mean force through force matching. We introduce a generalized force matching condition for the local mean force in the sense that allows the approximation of the potential of mean force under both linear and non-linear coarse graining mappings (e.g., reaction coordinates, end-to-end length of chains). Furthermore, we study the equivalence of force matching with relative entropy minimization which we derive for general non-linear coarse graining maps. We present in detail the generalized force matching condition through applications to specific examples in molecular systems.

preprint2014arXiv

Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks

In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner based also on the new sensitivity bound. In the second step of the proposed strategy, the finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the number of the sensitive parameters.

preprint2014arXiv

Parametric Sensitivity Analysis for Stochastic Molecular Systems using Information Theoretic Metrics

In this paper we extend the parametric sensitivity analysis (SA) methodology proposed in Ref. [Y. Pantazis and M. A. Katsoulakis, J. Chem. Phys. 138, 054115 (2013)] to continuous time and continuous space Markov processes represented by stochastic differential equations and, particularly, stochastic molecular dynamics as described by the Langevin equation. The utilized SA method is based on the computation of the information-theoretic (and thermodynamic) quantity of relative entropy rate (RER) and the associated Fisher information matrix (FIM) between path distributions. A major advantage of the pathwise SA method is that both RER and pathwise FIM depend only on averages of the force field therefore they are tractable and computable as ergodic averages from a single run of the molecular dynamics simulation both in equilibrium and in non-equilibrium steady state regimes. We validate the performance of the extended SA method to two different molecular stochastic systems, a standard Lennard-Jones fluid and an all-atom methane liquid and compare the obtained parameter sensitivities with parameter sensitivities on three popular and well-studied observable functions, namely, the radial distribution function, the mean squared displacement and the pressure. Results show that the RER-based sensitivities are highly correlated with the observable-based sensitivities.

preprint2013arXiv

Information-theoretic tools for parametrized coarse-graining of non-equilibrium extended systems

In this paper we focus on the development of new methods suitable for efficient and reliable coarse-graining of {\it non-equilibrium} molecular systems. In this context, we propose error estimation and controlled-fidelity model reduction methods based on Path-Space Information Theory, and combine it with statistical parametric estimation of rates for non-equilibrium stationary processes. The approach we propose extends the applicability of existing information-based methods for deriving parametrized coarse-grained models to Non-Equilibrium systems with Stationary States (NESS). In the context of coarse-graining it allows for constructing optimal parametrized Markovian coarse-grained dynamics, by minimizing information loss (due to coarse-graining) on the path space. Furthermore, the associated path-space Fisher Information Matrix can provide confidence intervals for the corresponding parameter estimators. We demonstrate the proposed coarse-graining method in a non-equilibrium system with diffusing interacting particles, driven by out-of-equilibrium boundary conditions.

preprint2013arXiv

Parametric Sensitivity Analysis for Biochemical Reaction Networks based on Pathwise Information Theory

Stochastic modeling and simulation provide powerful predictive methods for the intrinsic understanding of fundamental mechanisms in complex biochemical networks. Typically, such mathematical models involve networks of coupled jump stochastic processes with a large number of parameters that need to be suitably calibrated against experimental data. In this direction, the parameter sensitivity analysis of reaction networks is an essential mathematical and computational tool, yielding information regarding the robustness and the identifiability of model parameters. However, existing sensitivity analysis approaches such as variants of the finite difference method can have an overwhelming computational cost in models with a high-dimensional parameter space. We develop a sensitivity analysis methodology suitable for complex stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters. The proposed approach is based on Information Theory methods and relies on the quantification of information loss due to parameter perturbations between time-series distributions. For this reason, we need to work on path-space, i.e., the set consisting of all stochastic trajectories, hence the proposed approach is referred to as "pathwise". The pathwise sensitivity analysis method is realized by employing the rigorously-derived Relative Entropy Rate (RER), which is directly computable from the propensity functions. A key aspect of the method is that an associated pathwise Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) is defined, which in turn constitutes a gradient-free approach to quantifying parameter sensitivities. The structure of the FIM turns out to be block-diagonal, revealing hidden parameter dependencies and sensitivities in reaction networks.

preprint2012arXiv

A Relative Entropy Rate Method for Path Space Sensitivity Analysis of Stationary Complex Stochastic Dynamics

We propose a new sensitivity analysis methodology for complex stochastic dynamics based on the Relative Entropy Rate. The method becomes computationally feasible at the stationary regime of the process and involves the calculation of suitable observables in path space for the Relative Entropy Rate and the corresponding Fisher Information Matrix. The stationary regime is crucial for stochastic dynamics and here allows us to address the sensitivity analysis of complex systems, including examples of processes with complex landscapes that exhibit metastability, non-reversible systems from a statistical mechanics perspective, and high-dimensional, spatially distributed models. All these systems exhibit, typically non-gaussian stationary probability distributions, while in the case of high-dimensionality, histograms are impossible to construct directly. Our proposed methods bypass these challenges relying on the direct Monte Carlo simulation of rigorously derived observables for the Relative Entropy Rate and Fisher Information in path space rather than on the stationary probability distribution itself. We demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology by focusing here on two classes of problems: (a) Langevin particle systems with either reversible (gradient) or non-reversible (non-gradient) forcing, highlighting the ability of the method to carry out sensitivity analysis in non-equilibrium systems; and, (b) spatially extended Kinetic Monte Carlo models, showing that the method can handle high-dimensional problems.

preprint2012arXiv

Parallelization, processor communication and error analysis in lattice kinetic Monte Carlo

In this paper we study from a numerical analysis perspective the Fractional Step Kinetic Monte Carlo (FS-KMC) algorithms proposed in [1] for the parallel simulation of spatially distributed particle systems on a lattice. FS-KMC are fractional step algorithms with a time-stepping window $Δt$, and as such they are inherently partially asynchronous since there is no processor communication during the period $Δt$. In this contribution we primarily focus on the error analysis of FS-KMC algorithms as approximations of conventional, serial kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC). A key aspect of our analysis relies on emphasising a goal-oriented approach for suitably defined macroscopic observables (e.g., density, energy, correlations, surface roughness), rather than focusing on strong topology estimates for individual trajectories. One of the key implications of our error analysis is that it allows us to address systematically the processor communication of different parallelization strategies for KMC by comparing their (partial) asynchrony, which in turn is measured by their respective fractional time step $Δt$ for a prescribed error tolerance.

preprint2012arXiv

Spatial multi-level interacting particle simulations and information theory-based error quantification

We propose a hierarchy of multi-level kinetic Monte Carlo methods for sampling high-dimensional, stochastic lattice particle dynamics with complex interactions. The method is based on the efficient coupling of different spatial resolution levels, taking advantage of the low sampling cost in a coarse space and by developing local reconstruction strategies from coarse-grained dynamics. Microscopic reconstruction corrects possibly significant errors introduced through coarse-graining, leading to the controlled-error approximation of the sampled stochastic process. In this manner, the proposed multi-level algorithm overcomes known shortcomings of coarse-graining of particle systems with complex interactions such as combined long and short-range particle interactions and/or complex lattice geometries. Specifically, we provide error analysis for the approximation of long-time stationary dynamics in terms of relative entropy and prove that information loss in the multi-level methods is growing linearly in time, which in turn implies that an appropriate observable in the stationary regime is the information loss of the path measures per unit time. We show that this observable can be either estimated a priori, or it can be tracked computationally a posteriori in the course of a simulation. The stationary regime is of critical importance to molecular simulations as it is relevant to long-time sampling, obtaining phase diagrams and in studying metastability properties of high-dimensional complex systems. Finally, the multi-level nature of the method provides flexibility in combining rejection-free and null-event implementations, generating a hierarchy of algorithms with an adjustable number of rejections that includes well-known rejection-free and null-event algorithms.

preprint2011arXiv

Hierarchical fractional-step approximations and parallel kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms

We present a mathematical framework for constructing and analyzing parallel algorithms for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The resulting algorithms have the capacity to simulate a wide range of spatio-temporal scales in spatially distributed, non-equilibrium physiochemical processes with complex chemistry and transport micro-mechanisms. The algorithms can be tailored to specific hierarchical parallel architectures such as multi-core processors or clusters of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs). The proposed parallel algorithms are controlled-error approximations of kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms, departing from the predominant paradigm of creating parallel KMC algorithms with exactly the same master equation as the serial one. Our methodology relies on a spatial decomposition of the Markov operator underlying the KMC algorithm into a hierarchy of operators corresponding to the processors' structure in the parallel architecture. Based on this operator decomposition, we formulate Fractional Step Approximation schemes by employing the Trotter Theorem and its random variants; these schemes, (a) determine the communication schedule} between processors, and (b) are run independently on each processor through a serial KMC simulation, called a kernel, on each fractional step time-window. Furthermore, the proposed mathematical framework allows us to rigorously justify the numerical and statistical consistency of the proposed algorithms, showing the convergence of our approximating schemes to the original serial KMC. The approach also provides a systematic evaluation of different processor communicating schedules.

preprint2011arXiv

Multilevel coarse graining and nano--pattern discovery in many particle stochastic systems

In this work we propose a hierarchy of Monte Carlo methods for sampling equilibrium properties of stochastic lattice systems with competing short and long range interactions. Each Monte Carlo step is composed by two or more sub - steps efficiently coupling coarse and microscopic state spaces. The method can be designed to sample the exact or controlled-error approximations of the target distribution, providing information on levels of different resolutions, as well as at the microscopic level. In both strategies the method achieves significant reduction of the computational cost compared to conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Applications in phase transition and pattern formation problems confirm the efficiency of the proposed methods.

preprint2011arXiv

Noise regularization and computations for the 1-dimensional stochastic Allen-Cahn problem

We address the numerical discretization of the Allen-Cahn prob- lem with additive white noise in one-dimensional space. The discretization is conducted in two stages: (1) regularize the white noise and study the regularized problem, (2) approximate the regularized problem. We address (1) by introducing a piecewise constant random approximation of the white noise with respect to a space-time mesh. We analyze the regularized problem and study its relation to both the original problem and the deterministic Allen-Cahn problem. Step (2) is then performed leading to a practical Monte-Carlo method combined with a Finite Element-Implicit Euler scheme. The resulting numerical scheme is tested against theoretical benchmark results.

preprint2010arXiv

Coupled coarse graining and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for lattice systems

We propose an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for sampling equilibrium distributions for stochastic lattice models, capable of handling correctly long and short-range particle interactions. The proposed method is a Metropolis-type algorithm with the proposal probability transition matrix based on the coarse-grained approximating measures introduced in a series of works of M. Katsoulakis, A. Majda, D. Vlachos and P. Plechac, L. Rey-Bellet and D.Tsagkarogiannis,. We prove that the proposed algorithm reduces the computational cost due to energy differences and has comparable mixing properties with the classical microscopic Metropolis algorithm, controlled by the level of coarsening and reconstruction procedure. The properties and effectiveness of the algorithm are demonstrated with an exactly solvable example of a one dimensional Ising-type model, comparing efficiency of the single spin-flip Metropolis dynamics and the proposed coupled Metropolis algorithm.