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Julie Josse

Julie Josse appears in the imported research catalog. Authorship, coauthor and topic links are available while profile ownership is still unclaimed.

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MethodologyMachine Learningmath.STApplicationsStatistics TheoryArtificial Intelligence

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Published work

24 published item(s)

preprint2026arXiv

Set-Valued Policy Learning

Conventional treatment policies map patient covariates to a single recommended intervention in order to maximize expected clinical outcomes. Although a rich body of causal inference methods has been developed to estimate such policies, point-valued recommendations can be highly sensitive to estimation uncertainty, model specification, and finite-sample variability, while typically providing little guidance about how confident one should be in the recommended action. In this work, we propose a set-valued policy learning paradigm for the multiple-treatment setting, in which policies output a set of plausible treatments rather than a single recommendation. This formulation enables intrinsic uncertainty quantification, with the size of the predicted set reflecting the degree of decision ambiguity. We extend the learning-to-defer framework to multiple treatments via a novel \textit{greatest Lower Bound} method, and introduce \textit{conformal policy learning}, which bridges the gap between unobserved ground-truth optimal treatments and estimated optimal treatment rules. Drawing on insights from the noisy-label literature, we develop a randomness-injection approach that guarantees marginal coverage without requiring assumptions on underlying black-box optimal treatment rules. Through experiments on synthetic data and a real-world application to In-Vitro Fertilization (IVF), we demonstrate that our methods produce robust and actionable policies that naturally incorporate clinical considerations while effectively balancing performance and reliability.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Causal effect on a target population: a sensitivity analysis to handle missing covariates

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are often considered the gold standard for estimating causal effect, but they may lack external validity when the population eligible to the RCT is substantially different from the target population. Having at hand a sample of the target population of interest allows us to generalize the causal effect. Identifying the treatment effect in the target population requires covariates to capture all treatment effect modifiers that are shifted between the two sets. Standard estimators then use either weighting (IPSW), outcome modeling (G-formula), or combine the two in doubly robust approaches (AIPSW). However such covariates are often not available in both sets. In this paper, after proving L1-consistency of these three estimators, we compute the expected bias induced by a missing covariate, assuming a Gaussian distribution, a continuous outcome, and a semi-parametric model. Under this setting, we perform a sensitivity analysis for each missing covariate pattern and compute the sign of the expected bias. We also show that there is no gain in linearly imputing a partially-unobserved covariate. Finally we study the substitution of a missing covariate by a proxy. We illustrate all these results on simulations, as well as semi-synthetic benchmarks using data from the Tennessee Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio (STAR), and a real-world example from critical care medicine.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Causal inference methods for combining randomized trials and observational studies: a review

With increasing data availability, causal effects can be evaluated across different data sets, both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. RCTs isolate the effect of the treatment from that of unwanted (confounding) co-occurring effects but they may suffer from unrepresentativeness, and thus lack external validity. On the other hand, large observational samples are often more representative of the target population but can conflate confounding effects with the treatment of interest. In this paper, we review the growing literature on methods for causal inference on combined RCTs and observational studies, striving for the best of both worlds. We first discuss identification and estimation methods that improve generalizability of RCTs using the representativeness of observational data. Classical estimators include weighting, difference between conditional outcome models, and doubly robust estimators. We then discuss methods that combine RCTs and observational data to either ensure uncounfoundedness of the observational analysis or to improve (conditional) average treatment effect estimation. We also connect and contrast works developed in both the potential outcomes literature and the structural causal model literature. Finally, we compare the main methods using a simulation study and real world data to analyze the effect of tranexamic acid on the mortality rate in major trauma patients. A review of available codes and new implementations is also provided.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2023arXiv

Efficient and robust transfer learning of optimal individualized treatment regimes with right-censored survival data

An individualized treatment regime (ITR) is a decision rule that assigns treatments based on patients' characteristics. The value function of an ITR is the expected outcome in a counterfactual world had this ITR been implemented. Recently, there has been increasing interest in combining heterogeneous data sources, such as leveraging the complementary features of randomized controlled trial (RCT) data and a large observational study (OS). Usually, a covariate shift exists between the source and target population, rendering the source-optimal ITR unnecessarily optimal for the target population. We present an efficient and robust transfer learning framework for estimating the optimal ITR with right-censored survival data that generalizes well to the target population. The value function accommodates a broad class of functionals of survival distributions, including survival probabilities and restrictive mean survival times (RMSTs). We propose a doubly robust estimator of the value function, and the optimal ITR is learned by maximizing the value function within a pre-specified class of ITRs. We establish the $N^{-1/3}$ rate of convergence for the estimated parameter indexing the optimal ITR, and show that the proposed optimal value estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal even with flexible machine learning methods for nuisance parameter estimation. We evaluate the empirical performance of the proposed method by simulation studies and a real data application of sodium bicarbonate therapy for patients with severe metabolic acidaemia in the intensive care unit (ICU), combining a RCT and an observational study with heterogeneity.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series

Uncertainty quantification of predictive models is crucial in decision-making problems. Conformal prediction is a general and theoretically sound answer. However, it requires exchangeable data, excluding time series. While recent works tackled this issue, we argue that Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI, Gibbs and Cand{è}s, 2021), developed for distribution-shift time series, is a good procedure for time series with general dependency. We theoretically analyse the impact of the learning rate on its efficiency in the exchangeable and auto-regressive case. We propose a parameter-free method, AgACI, that adaptively builds upon ACI based on online expert aggregation. We lead extensive fair simulations against competing methods that advocate for ACI's use in time series. We conduct a real case study: electricity price forecasting. The proposed aggregation algorithm provides efficient prediction intervals for day-ahead forecasting. All the code and data to reproduce the experiments is made available.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2022arXiv

Robust Lasso-Zero for sparse corruption and model selection with missing covariates

We propose Robust Lasso-Zero, an extension of the Lasso-Zero methodology, initially introduced for sparse linear models, to the sparse corruptions problem. We give theoretical guarantees on the sign recovery of the parameters for a slightly simplified version of the estimator, called Thresholded Justice Pursuit. The use of Robust Lasso-Zero is showcased for variable selection with missing values in the covariates. In addition to not requiring the specification of a model for the covariates, nor estimating their covariance matrix or the noise variance, the method has the great advantage of handling missing not-at random values without specifying a parametric model. Numerical experiments and a medical application underline the relevance of Robust Lasso-Zero in such a context with few available competitors. The method is easy to use and implemented in the R library lass0.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Debiasing Stochastic Gradient Descent to handle missing values

Stochastic gradient algorithm is a key ingredient of many machine learning methods, particularly appropriate for large-scale learning.However, a major caveat of large data is their incompleteness.We propose an averaged stochastic gradient algorithm handling missing values in linear models. This approach has the merit to be free from the need of any data distribution modeling and to account for heterogeneous missing proportion.In both streaming and finite-sample settings, we prove that this algorithm achieves convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{n})$ at the iteration $n$, the same as without missing values. We show the convergence behavior and the relevance of the algorithm not only on synthetic data but also on real data sets, including those collected from medical register.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Doubly robust treatment effect estimation with missing attributes

Missing attributes are ubiquitous in causal inference, as they are in most applied statistical work. In this paper, we consider various sets of assumptions under which causal inference is possible despite missing attributes and discuss corresponding approaches to average treatment effect estimation, including generalized propensity score methods and multiple imputation. Across an extensive simulation study, we show that no single method systematically out-performs others. We find, however, that doubly robust modifications of standard methods for average treatment effect estimation with missing data repeatedly perform better than their non-doubly robust baselines; for example, doubly robust generalized propensity score methods beat inverse-weighting with the generalized propensity score. This finding is reinforced in an analysis of an observations study on the effect on mortality of tranexamic acid administration among patients with traumatic brain injury in the context of critical care management. Here, doubly robust estimators recover confidence intervals that are consistent with evidence from randomized trials, whereas non-doubly robust estimators do not.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Estimation and imputation in Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis with Missing Not At Random data

Missing Not At Random (MNAR) values lead to significant biases in the data, since the probability of missingness depends on the unobserved values.They are ''not ignorable'' in the sense that they often require defining a model for the missing data mechanism, which makes inference or imputation tasks more complex. Furthermore, this implies a strong \textit{a priori} on the parametric form of the distribution.However, some works have obtained guarantees on the estimation of parameters in the presence of MNAR data, without specifying the distribution of missing data \citep{mohan2018estimation, tang2003analysis}. This is very useful in practice, but is limited to simple cases such as self-masked MNAR values in data generated according to linear regression models.We continue this line of research, but extend it to a more general MNAR mechanism, in a more general model of the probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA), \textit{i.e.}, a low-rank model with random effects. We prove identifiability of the PPCA parameters. We then propose an estimation of the loading coefficients and a data imputation method. They are based on estimators of means, variances and covariances of missing variables, for which consistency is discussed. These estimators have the great advantage of being calculated using only the observed data, leveraging the underlying low-rank structure of the data. We illustrate the relevance of the method with numerical experiments on synthetic data and also on real data collected from a medical register.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Imputation and low-rank estimation with Missing Not At Random data

Missing values challenge data analysis because many supervised and unsupervised learning methods cannot be applied directly to incomplete data. Matrix completion based on low-rank assumptions are very powerful solution for dealing with missing values. However, existing methods do not consider the case of informative missing values which are widely encountered in practice. This paper proposes matrix completion methods to recover Missing Not At Random (MNAR) data. Our first contribution is to suggest a model-based estimation strategy by modelling the missing mechanism distribution. An EM algorithm is then implemented, involving a Fast Iterative Soft-Thresholding Algorithm (FISTA). Our second contribution is to suggest a computationally efficient surrogate estimation by implicitly taking into account the joint distribution of the data and the missing mechanism: the data matrix is concatenated with the mask coding for the missing values; a low-rank structure for exponential family is assumed on this new matrix, in order to encode links between variables and missing mechanisms. The methodology that has the great advantage of handling different missing value mechanisms is robust to model specification errors.The performances of our methods are assessed on the real data collected from a trauma registry (TraumaBase ) containing clinical information about over twenty thousand severely traumatized patients in France. The aim is then to predict if the doctors should administrate tranexomic acid to patients with traumatic brain injury, that would limit excessive bleeding.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Linear predictor on linearly-generated data with missing values: non consistency and solutions

We consider building predictors when the data have missing values. We study the seemingly-simple case where the target to predict is a linear function of the fully-observed data and we show that, in the presence of missing values, the optimal predictor may not be linear. In the particular Gaussian case, it can be written as a linear function of multiway interactions between the observed data and the various missing-value indicators. Due to its intrinsic complexity, we study a simple approximation and prove generalization bounds with finite samples, highlighting regimes for which each method performs best. We then show that multilayer perceptrons with ReLU activation functions can be consistent, and can explore good trade-offs between the true model and approximations. Our study highlights the interesting family of models that are beneficial to fit with missing values depending on the amount of data available.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

MissDeepCausal: Causal Inference from Incomplete Data Using Deep Latent Variable Models

Inferring causal effects of a treatment, intervention or policy from observational data is central to many applications. However, state-of-the-art methods for causal inference seldom consider the possibility that covariates have missing values, which is ubiquitous in many real-world analyses. Missing data greatly complicate causal inference procedures as they require an adapted unconfoundedness hypothesis which can be difficult to justify in practice. We circumvent this issue by considering latent confounders whose distribution is learned through variational autoencoders adapted to missing values. They can be used either as a pre-processing step prior to causal inference but we also suggest to embed them in a multiple imputation strategy to take into account the variability due to missing values. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology especially for non-linear models compared to competitors.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2020arXiv

Missing Data Imputation using Optimal Transport

Missing data is a crucial issue when applying machine learning algorithms to real-world datasets. Starting from the simple assumption that two batches extracted randomly from the same dataset should share the same distribution, we leverage optimal transport distances to quantify that criterion and turn it into a loss function to impute missing data values. We propose practical methods to minimize these losses using end-to-end learning, that can exploit or not parametric assumptions on the underlying distributions of values. We evaluate our methods on datasets from the UCI repository, in MCAR, MAR and MNAR settings. These experiments show that OT-based methods match or out-perform state-of-the-art imputation methods, even for high percentages of missing values.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Bayesian dimensionality reduction with PCA using penalized semi-integrated likelihood

We discuss the problem of estimating the number of principal components in Principal Com- ponents Analysis (PCA). Despite of the importance of the problem and the multitude of solutions proposed in the literature, it comes as a surprise that there does not exist a coherent asymptotic framework which would justify different approaches depending on the actual size of the data set. In this paper we address this issue by presenting an approximate Bayesian approach based on Laplace approximation and introducing a general method for building the model selection criteria, called PEnalized SEmi-integrated Likelihood (PESEL). Our general framework encompasses a variety of existing approaches based on probabilistic models, like e.g. Bayesian Information Criterion for the Probabilistic PCA (PPCA), and allows for construction of new criteria, depending on the size of the data set at hand. Specifically, we define PESEL when the number of variables substantially exceeds the number of observations. We also report results of extensive simulation studies and real data analysis, which illustrate good properties of our proposed criteria as compared to the state-of- the-art methods and very recent proposals. Specifially, these simulations show that PESEL based criteria can be quite robust against deviations from the probabilistic model assumptions. Selected PESEL based criteria for the estimation of the number of principal components are implemented in R package varclust, which is available on github (https://github.com/psobczyk/varclust).

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Bootstrap-Based Regularization for Low-Rank Matrix Estimation

We develop a flexible framework for low-rank matrix estimation that allows us to transform noise models into regularization schemes via a simple bootstrap algorithm. Effectively, our procedure seeks an autoencoding basis for the observed matrix that is stable with respect to the specified noise model; we call the resulting procedure a stable autoencoder. In the simplest case, with an isotropic noise model, our method is equivalent to a classical singular value shrinkage estimator. For non-isotropic noise models, e.g., Poisson noise, the method does not reduce to singular value shrinkage, and instead yields new estimators that perform well in experiments. Moreover, by iterating our stable autoencoding scheme, we can automatically generate low-rank estimates without specifying the target rank as a tuning parameter.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Multinomial Multiple Correspondence Analysis

Relations between categorical variables can be analyzed conveniently by multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). %It is well suited to discover relations that may exist between categories of different variables. The graphical representation of MCA results in so-called biplots makes it easy to interpret the most important associations. However, a major drawback of MCA is that it does not have an underlying probability model for an individual selecting a category on a variable. In this paper, we propose such probability model called multinomial multiple correspondence analysis (MMCA) that combines the underlying low-rank representation of MCA with maximum likelihood. An efficient majorization algorithm that uses an elegant bound for the second derivative is derived to estimate the parameters. The proposed model can easily lead to overfitting causing some of the parameters to wander of to infinity. We add the nuclear norm penalty to counter this issue and discuss ways of selecting regularization parameters. The proposed approach is well suited to study and vizualise the dependences for high dimensional data.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2016arXiv

Multiple Correspondence Analysis & the Multilogit Bilinear Model

Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) is a dimension reduction method which plays a large role in the analysis of tables with categorical nominal variables such as survey data. Though it is usually motivated and derived using geometric considerations, in fact we prove that it amounts to a single proximal Newtown step of a natural bilinear exponential family model for categorical data the multinomial logit bilinear model. We compare and contrast the behavior of MCA with that of the model on simulations and discuss new insights on the properties of both exploratory multivariate methods and their cognate models. One main conclusion is that we could recommend to approximate the multilogit model parameters using MCA. Indeed, estimating the parameters of the model is not a trivial task whereas MCA has the great advantage of being easily solved by singular value decomposition and scalable to large data.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

MIMCA: Multiple imputation for categorical variables with multiple correspondence analysis

We propose a multiple imputation method to deal with incomplete categorical data. This method imputes the missing entries using the principal components method dedicated to categorical data: multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). The uncertainty concerning the parameters of the imputation model is reflected using a non-parametric bootstrap. Multiple imputation using MCA (MIMCA) requires estimating a small number of parameters due to the dimensionality reduction property of MCA. It allows the user to impute a large range of data sets. In particular, a high number of categories per variable, a high number of variables or a small the number of individuals are not an issue for MIMCA. Through a simulation study based on real data sets, the method is assessed and compared to the reference methods (multiple imputation using the loglinear model, multiple imputation by logistic regressions) as well to the latest works on the topic (multiple imputation by random forests or by the Dirichlet process mixture of products of multinomial distributions model). The proposed method shows good performances in terms of bias and coverage for an analysis model such as a main effects logistic regression model. In addition, MIMCA has the great advantage that it is substantially less time consuming on data sets of high dimensions than the other multiple imputation methods.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2015arXiv

Multiple imputation for continuous variables using a Bayesian principal component analysis

We propose a multiple imputation method based on principal component analysis (PCA) to deal with incomplete continuous data. To reflect the uncertainty of the parameters from one imputation to the next, we use a Bayesian treatment of the PCA model. Using a simulation study and real data sets, the method is compared to two classical approaches: multiple imputation based on joint modelling and on fully conditional modelling. Contrary to the others, the proposed method can be easily used on data sets where the number of individuals is less than the number of variables and when the variables are highly correlated. In addition, it provides unbiased point estimates of quantities of interest, such as an expectation, a regression coefficient or a correlation coefficient, with a smaller mean squared error. Furthermore, the widths of the confidence intervals built for the quantities of interest are often smaller whilst ensuring a valid coverage.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Adaptive Shrinkage of singular values

To recover a low rank structure from a noisy matrix, truncated singular value decomposition has been extensively used and studied. Recent studies suggested that the signal can be better estimated by shrinking the singular values. We pursue this line of research and propose a new estimator offering a continuum of thresholding and shrinking functions. To avoid an unstable and costly cross-validation search, we propose new rules to select two thresholding and shrinking parameters from the data. In particular we propose a generalized Stein unbiased risk estimation criterion that does not require knowledge of the variance of the noise and that is computationally fast. A Monte Carlo simulation reveals that our estimator outperforms the tested methods in terms of mean squared error on both low-rank and general signal matrices across different signal to noise ratio regimes. In addition, it accurately estimates the rank of the signal when it is detectable.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2014arXiv

Confidence Areas for Fixed-Effects PCA

PCA is often used to visualize data when the rows and the columns are both of interest. In such a setting there is a lack of inferential methods on the PCA output. We study the asymptotic variance of a fixed-effects model for PCA, and propose several approaches to assessing the variability of PCA estimates: a method based on a parametric bootstrap, a new cell-wise jackknife, as well as a computationally cheaper approximation to the jackknife. We visualize the confidence regions by Procrustes rotation. Using a simulation study, we compare the proposed methods and highlight the strengths and drawbacks of each method as we vary the number of rows, the number of columns, and the strength of the relationships between variables.

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preprint2014arXiv

Measures of dependence between random vectors and tests of independence. Literature review

Simple correlation coefficients between two variables have been generalized to measure association between two matrices in many ways. Coefficients such as the RV coefficient, the distance covariance (dCov) coefficient and kernel based coefficients have been adopted by different research communities. Scientists use these coefficients to test whether two random vectors are linked. If they are, it is important to uncover what patterns exist in these associations. We discuss the topic of measures of dependence between random vectors and tests of independence and show links between different approaches. We document some of the interesting rediscoveries and lack of interconnection between bodies of literature. After providing definitions of the coefficients and associated tests, we present the recent improvements that enhance their statistical properties and ease of interpretation. We summarize multi-table approaches and provide scenarii where the indices can provide useful summaries of heterogeneous multi-block data. We illustrate these different strategies on several examples of real data and suggest directions for future research.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

A principal components method to impute missing values for mixed data

We propose a new method to impute missing values in mixed datasets. It is based on a principal components method, the factorial analysis for mixed data, which balances the influence of all the variables that are continuous and categorical in the construction of the dimensions of variability. Because the imputation uses the principal axes and components, the prediction of the missing values are based on the similarity between individuals and on the relationships between variables. The quality of the imputation is assessed through a simulation study and real datasets. The method is compared to a recent method (Stekhoven and Bühlmann, 2011) based on random forests and shows better performances especially for the imputation of categorical variables and when there are highly linear relationships between continuous variables.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access
preprint2013arXiv

Regularised PCA to denoise and visualise data

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a well-established method commonly used to explore and visualise data. A classical PCA model is the fixed effect model where data are generated as a fixed structure of low rank corrupted by noise. Under this model, PCA does not provide the best recovery of the underlying signal in terms of mean squared error. Following the same principle as in ridge regression, we propose a regularised version of PCA that boils down to threshold the singular values. Each singular value is multiplied by a term which can be seen as the ratio of the signal variance over the total variance of the associated dimension. The regularised term is analytically derived using asymptotic results and can also be justified from a Bayesian treatment of the model. Regularised PCA provides promising results in terms of the recovery of the true signal and the graphical outputs in comparison with classical PCA and with a soft thresholding estimation strategy. The gap between PCA and regularised PCA is all the more important that data are noisy.

0 citations0 reviewsNo code linkedOpen access